Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Dekes For Days]

Hypothetically, Marner should be able to turn Jarnkrok and Domi into 50 point players.

He could. It's just not an optimal way to use him. You want your best playmaker with top shooters, and getting lots of minutes.

 

[DougGilmour93]

I have to assume that Domi was brought back to play with Matthews and that the hope was that Marner would move on.

I can’t imagine Domi playing 2c or 3 c.

Tavares needs to move down the line to 3C for this upcoming year and the jettisoned into the sun. Definitely do not re-sign (unless he agrees to take 3m or less).

No idea who plays 2c for us this year unless of course we finally get Nylander to do it (which I doubt as he wouldn’t want the responsibility).

 

[DougGilmour93]

Why about something like this…

Jarnkrok + Holmberg + Liljegren (all Swedes)
For
Marchenko + Voronkov

Then we can either deal for Torpochnko from St.Louis (for Robertson) or bring up Grebyonkin and have an all Russian line

 

[Fogelhund]

Leafs trade Robertson, Kampf, Reaves & Jarncrock

Leafs sign as UFA's : A. Nylander, Pacioretty & JVR

A. Nylander Matthews W. Nylander
Paciorrety Tavares Marner
JVR Domi Cowan
McMann Holmberg Knies

Reilly Tanev
OEL McCabe
Benoit Liljegren
Timmins

Woll Stolarz

A. Nylander on the first line, and Knies on the fourth. Funny.

 

[Fogelhund]

I have to assume that Domi was brought back to play with Matthews and that the hope was that Marner would move on.

I can’t imagine Domi playing 2c or 3 c.

Tavares needs to move down the line to 3C for this upcoming year and the jettisoned into the sun. Definitely do not re-sign (unless he agrees to take 3m or less).

No idea who plays 2c for us this year unless of course we finally get Nylander to do it (which I doubt as he wouldn’t want the responsibility).

Tavares plays 2C, because he's pretty good at it.

 

[LiseL]

Since 2018, Marner's never been away from an $11 million centerman, so we really don't know what kind of standalone offensive player he, is or what kind of statistical impact he would experience being on a team like the Islanders.

Sens fan here, coming in peace. Your statement made me think of Dany Heatley. His 3 best years were with the Sens when he played with Alfredsson and Spezza. After he left the Sens, his numbers declined with the Sharks and were almost non-existant with the Wild.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I think that people have over complicated what the forward group needs for this team to contend. I think the group is 1 year away from being fantastic. Especially with the likes of Knies getting better and the addition of Cowan, Grebenkin and Minten getting their feet wet and inserting young talent onto roster.

2025-2026
Salary Cap $92.0 million

Extend Marner $12.25 x 8 years
Extend Tavares $6.0 million × 3 years
Extend McCabe $5.0 x 5 years
Extend Knies $4.5 million x 4 years
Trade Calle Jarnkrok
Trade Kampf

Domi-Mathews-Marner
Knies-Addition-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Cowan
Dewar-Minten or Holmberg-Grebenkin
Quillan or Tverberg

Rielly / Tanev
OEL / McCabe
Benoit / Addition ($1.5 million)

Woll
Stolarz

Cap Hit: $87.0-$87.5 million.

That gives you $4.5-$5.0 million to add a middle 6 C that can play with Knies and Nylander (or Domi and and Nylander) allowing Tavares to play in a middle 6 center role and add a third scoring line to the equation. There will, inevitably be guys out there that you can get for that kind of money, with some retention if need be.

Pieces that you can reasonably trade to help you land a 2C that moves Tavares down or a middle 6C that creates a another scoring line and completes the forward group..

Nick Robertson
Timothy Liljegren
Calle Jarnkrok
David Kampf
Ben Danford
2025 2nd round pick
2026 1st round pick

2/3 C the likes of which could be targeted with no /some retention to make the cap work.

Barrett Hayden ($2.65 million)- 2C
Nick Schmaltz ($5.85 million)- 2C
Blake Coleman ($4.9 million)- 2C
Logan Couture ($8.0 million)- 2C
Shayne Wright $866k)- 2C
Yani Gourde ($5.1 million)- middle 6 C
Boone Jenner ($3.75)- middle 6 C

 

[conFABulator]

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Mcmann-JT-Nylander.

Gives Mitch his own line, and as he's proven he can drive his own lines that shouldn't be an issue. Would theoretically solve our depth scoring issue. And we get to find out if he's a 100 point player or an 80 point player buoyed by Matthews.

I am all for Mitch having a "prove it" year as he plays for a contract, but I don't love those lines. That would leave Marner with Jarnkrok and Robertson, possibly Holmberg of Cowan. I just don't think that's the best configuration for the team. I am happy with

Jarnkrok • Nylander • Marner

Let's let Marner help Nylander be a world class 2C. I also like:

Robertson • Tavares • McMann

As the third line, I think that is good for the Leafs and JT.

As a side note, it might be interesting to sign A. Nylander to a PTO and have him audition for the Jarnkrok spot. That could be a bargain pickup and give us a fourth line of

Holmberg • Kampf • Jarnkrok

 

[Gaberd2608]

He could. It's just not an optimal way to use him. You want your best playmaker with top shooters, and getting lots of minutes.

Having players push for the absolute most money is also not optimal. If they are going to demand top pay it is going to directly impact how much money is left to sign depth players.

Right now Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares make up over 50% of the cap. In a normal situatiom of course you would want your best players playing together but we cannot have a top 6 of star players and an AHL bottom 6, a grab bag on defence and a hope and a prayer in net.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander has played mostly second line defenses in those ~16 mins as well getting easier matchups and hes pnly played R1 teams and never had deeper runs besides last year where he had to play R2/R3/R4 which adds increased faitgue and brings in tougher defensive systems to produce against

Nylander is also part of the leafs PP which has struggled numerous times in the playoffs with his play along with Marner and Matthews, his production being hurt by poor powerplay production is on him and a big negative factor

Matthews also barely plays likr a top 30 center in the league in the playoffs with his production completely dying and falling off a cliff. Marner has struggled last 4 playoffs at times but so has matthews vs MTL, FLR and partially this year vs boston

That's right - top line plays against top pairing, second line against second pair, third line against third pair, and fourth line against ....

Four lines vs three D doesn't match. Also, between home vs away, coaching styles, changes on the fly, and icings, 'easier matchups' isn't as big a thing as some think. Plus, it's been shown pretty conclusively that quality of linemates is more significant than quality of opponents.

One of the popular arguments in favor of Marner is that he's always playing the Eastern champs and Vezina goalies, but I guess Nylander isn't?

And I'm not sure why the problems with the PP is on him, but not the other four. Isn't Marner the QB?

Has Matthews struggled anywhere near as much as Tavares?

Didn't Matty have the best ppg against Boston, with Willy second?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander is being paid 11.5M next year and is getting 1st line minutes this year, having played around 20 mins a game this year, his usage also had him playing with matthews at times during the year its not like he played only with Tavares whose major declined was this season and not in his 88 pt year.

Nylander is on track to be the next Mitchell Marner

11.5M absurdly high pay, above any comparables which will raise expectations and fans patience for his deficiencies,

90-100 pt reg season production (hopefully he can maintain this year production b/c if he falls to 80s ots its a shit deal off the 1st year], which will make fans think hes a top 5ish winger and franchise player setting up high hopes come playoffs

Experiencing a major decline in pts in the playoffs, with him producing 3 in 4 this year vs Boston or 61 pt pace.

He will need to be 85-90 pt player in the playoffs to have a chance of justifying is crazy deal.

He's going to be RW1 most likely and his current contracts have raised expectations now where his production of 4 in 5 vs CBJ, 3 in 5 vs FLR, and 6 in 7 vs Tampa 22, and 3 in 4 vs Boston, wont be excused away anymore behind the excuse he makes 7M and gets 2nd line opportunities while Marner makes 11M

What does his salary for next year have to do with his production over the last three? I think it's a result, not a cause.

Marner averaged over 21 minutes, and Nylander averaged under 20 - which had top line minutes?

What does Tavares' 88 point season from six years ago have to do with his decline over the last two?

$11.5 is obviously an overpayment, although not as bad as Marner's, and may raise expectations, but why would it raise fan patience in his deficiencies?

Considering that he's been improving each year, and the one of the four who has shown the least decline from regular season to playoffs, I'm not sure why you think both trends will suddenly reverse.

I think he's more likely to be 2C than 1RW this year.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Tavares played 2C, because he used to be pretty good at it, and the coach's buddy signed him.

Fify.

 

[LeafsFan89]

He could. It's just not an optimal way to use him. You want your best playmaker with top shooters, and getting lots of minutes.

How's that worked out in the playoffs? A change is needed, but unfortunately, we're stuck with the same core for another year.

 

[Gaberd2608]

How's that worked out in the playoffs? A change is needed, but unfortunately, we're stuck with the same core for another year.

My thought process is that since we cannot afford to sign depth, we need to manufacture it by spreading out our $11+ million players.

I dont understand people wanting Tavares on the 3rd line. Money aside, he is a 65+ point center. He is an above average 2nd line center.

Since we cannot sign depth, let the player who is the easiest to slide up/down the lineup try to anchor a defensive 3rd line and help them with some offensive upside. I think it makes for a more balanced lineup. Marner should get used to it. He likely wont have Matthews, and Tavares, and Nylander level players on his new team.

 

[Fogelhund]

Fify.

Nah... it's not fixed, just delusional. You really have to wonder what people's expectations for a 2C are. Does anyone watch other teams at all? Like at all?

Like Florida's 2C was Sam Bennett... put up 41 points last year. Boston had Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha as their two top C's, 60 and 59 points. Carolina's 2C was Jordan Staal and his 30 points.

Tavares put up 69 points, in his worst offensive campaign in years, while being over 59% on faceoffs, and a positive +- player, 5v5. This was a player that was pencilled in on people's Canadian Olympic team up until last year... but suddenly he's not good enough to be a 2C on the Leafs...

Like if this sucks as a 2C, what do people want and expect? Seriously. Who are these superior 2C out there, and how many teams have them?

I get the regression to his game last year, and that he's way overpaid now... but the bottom line is, he's still one of the better 2C's out there, after years and years of being a good 1C. But people are fixated on this idea that he's got to go, needs to be a winger, or our 3C, while somehow we bring in an acceptable 2C like McDavid or something.

Seriously, name some players that are better than Tavares, who would be acceptable 2C's.

 

[IPS]

Personally I don't have 2C expectations for Tavares, his salary demands 1C expectations. Honestly this year when Domi filled in as #2C he looked better in that role than JT, albeit a very short sample size.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Having players push for the absolute most money is also not optimal

It would definitely have been more optimal if Treliving didn't decide to overpay Nylander, but it is in no way insurmountable. Hopefully last year represented a new normal through his prime instead of a career year.

Right now Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares make up over 50% of the cap.

We already know that building great teams with this allocation through more difficult situations is possible, so there is no excuse, and this year is also the most it will ever be. It is the overlap of new UFA contracts and the end of the previous UFA contract. Moving forward, we'll actually have the rising cap that every other team in cap era history has benefitted from, and there is no better option for that cap space right now. Cap space doesn't win you games.

In a normal situatiom of course you would want your best players playing together but we cannot have a top 6 of star players and an AHL bottom 6, a grab bag on defence and a hope and a prayer in net.

Who exactly are the AHL players? Our 4th line is going to be like 5+ mil. We have 5 non-core forwards making 1.35m or more, and that's not counting two RFAs likely to get more than that, and Knies on his ELC. The bottom pairing of our defense is like 6.5 mil. We have 7 defensemen making 1.1m or more. The only place we're spending less is goaltending, and yeah I'm not thrilled going with two backups, but not only is good goaltending not something you just buy, going with this goalie cap allocation is a new development under Treliving, and it was a choice, not a necessity.

But even in this theoretical world of yours, I'm not sure why you think playing the same group of players with less optimal linemates, in less optimal situations, and giving worse players more ice time and better players less ice time, is supposed to benefit the team anyway.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Leafs trade Marner
Seattle trades Dunn, Eberle, Wright,

Leafs trade Nylander
Rangers trade Trouba, Lafreniere

Leafs trade Robertson, Liljegren for future considerations

Lafreniere(2.5)/Matthews(13.5)/Eberle(4.75)
Tavares(11)/Domi(3.75)/Jarnkrok(2)
Knies(1)/Wright(1)/Cowan(1)
McMann(1)/Kampf(2.5)/Dewar(1)
*Reaves(1.35), Holmberg(1)

Dunn(7.5)/Trouba(8)
Rielly(7.5)/Tanev(4.5)
OEL(3.5)/Benoit(1.5)
*Hakanpaa(1.5), McCabe(2)

Stolarz (2.5)
Woll (1)

Total=86.85 (1.15 remaining)

 

[notDatsyuk]

He could. It's just not an optimal way to use him. You want your best playmaker with top shooters, and getting lots of minutes.

You're right - Domi should be playing with Matthews or Nylander.

 

[Torontonian]

Toronto is banking on growth from it's younger players, and quite frankly, those players need to have growth for the Leafs to be successful. you know what you are getting from Jankrok, Reaves, Kampf.

Knies, Robertson, Holmberg, McMann (I know he's older, but still newer to the NHL). All have to take a bigger step this year and have to be consistent. Example, Knies took a massive step in the series against Boston, he needs to grow on that and bring that type of play throughout the regular season, Robertson needs to improve on his D-zone play and limit the mistakes he made,

If the younger guys don't take a step, it's going to be tough for Toronto.

 

[Torontonian]

You're right - Domi should be playing with Matthews or Nylander.

Ideally you would want Domi+Nylander and Matthews+Marner as Marner is the far superior playmaker and 34 can rip the puck, but sadly Domi+Nylander are too awful in their own zone to be playing together.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're right - Domi should be playing with Matthews or Nylander.

Marner, our best playmaker, should be playing with the top shooters on our team. Preferably Matthews, but there are other options that aren't Domi and Jarnkrok. Quite frankly, Domi probably shouldn't be here at all, as a historically problematic, pure offense winger with discipline issues wasn't really a top priority, but people liked his daddy.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nah... it's not fixed, just delusional. You really have to wonder what people's expectations for a 2C are. Does anyone watch other teams at all? Like at all?

Like Florida's 2C was Sam Bennett... put up 41 points last year. Boston had Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha as their two top C's, 60 and 59 points. Carolina's 2C was Jordan Staal and his 30 points.

Tavares put up 69 points, in his worst offensive campaign in years, while being over 59% on faceoffs, and a positive +- player, 5v5. This was a player that was pencilled in on people's Canadian Olympic team up until last year... but suddenly he's not good enough to be a 2C on the Leafs...

Like if this sucks as a 2C, what do people want and expect? Seriously. Who are these superior 2C out there, and how many teams have them?

I get the regression to his game last year, and that he's way overpaid now... but the bottom line is, he's still one of the better 2C's out there, after years and years of being a good 1C. But people are fixated on this idea that he's got to go, needs to be a winger, or our 3C, while somehow we bring in an acceptable 2C like McDavid or something.

Seriously, name some players that are better than Tavares, who would be acceptable 2C's.

He put up 65 points (not 69) playing with a winger who put up 98.

His production dropped 20% despite playing with a linemate whose production went up 15%.

Even without looking at those awful numbers, just by watching him you can see that he's not the player he used to be.

It's become more obvious each year that Nylander is the driver on that line.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Ideally you would want Domi+Nylander and Matthews+Marner as Marner is the far superior playmaker and 34 can rip the puck, but sadly Domi+Nylander are too awful in their own zone to be playing together.

Much better would be Domi on Matthews' wing and Marner on Nylander's.

 

[IPS]

Domi probably shouldn't be here at all, as a historically problematic, pure offense winger with discipline issues wasn't really a top priority, but people liked his daddy.

Pretty embarrassing then that Marner got outproduced by Domi in the postseason.