Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

Updated Capwages a good replacement for CapFriendly. https://capwages.com/

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Mess

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Since 2018, Marner's never been away from an $11 million centerman, so we really don't know what kind of standalone offensive player he, is or what kind of statistical impact he would experience being on a team like the Islanders.
Marner as a playmaker relies on other players to put the puck in the net for him to drive his point totals.

In Toronto has has pinned to the hip of the Rocket Richard winner for years now and prior also to a #1C in JT, then add Nylander to the PP group.

I have always thought if Marner had been drafted #3OA by Phoenix and buried in the desert all these years would many people even really know who he was, based on his teammates there?

Without finishers and with no playoffs, he be the equivalent of Clayton Keller and and 65-70 point player based on his teammates and surroundings.

Any player that demands double digit salary better be his own line driver, otherwise he is simply Robin, to a teams #1C Batman, making him a support player and not primary player.
 
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conFABulator

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Apr 11, 2021
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Marner as a playmaker relies on other players to put the puck in the net for him to drive his point totals.

In Toronto has has pinned to the hip of the Rocket Richard winner for years now and prior also to a #1C in JT, then add Nylander to the PP group.

I have always thought in Marner had been drafted #3OA by Phoenix and buried in the desert all these years would many people even really know who he was, based on his teammates there?

Without finishers and with no playoffs, he be the equivalent of Clayton Keller and and 65-70 point player based on his teammates and surroundings.

Any player that demands double digit salary better be his own line driver, otherwise he is simply Robin, to a teams #1C Batman, making him a support player and not primary player.
I don't know if this is true, but it very well could be and this year would be the year to find out.

The problem is I don't really see how we get Marner away from $11M players. I am pretty sure he has to play with Tavares or Nylander if want to keep him away from, and Domi with Matthews. If we have a top line of Matthews and Domi, and say Knies then we have:

Holmberg/Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann

Or

Holmberg/Jarnkrok Nylander McMann
Robertson Tavares Marner

I guess Tavares is not actually an $11M player anymore, so it would be on Mitch to carry that line...though he and Tavares haven't had great chemistry the past couple of seasons, maybe it's Marner's job to get that line and JT going? A guy worth $11M should be able to do that.

I also like him with Willy if Nylander is at C. Supporting Willy to be a strong 2C is valuable to us as well.
 

darrylsittler27

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Oct 21, 2002
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Marner as a playmaker relies on other players to put the puck in the net for him to drive his point totals.

In Toronto has has pinned to the hip of the Rocket Richard winner for years now and prior also to a #1C in JT, then add Nylander to the PP group.

I have always thought in Marner had been drafted #3OA by Phoenix and buried in the desert all these years would many people even really know who he was, based on his teammates there?

Without finishers and with no playoffs, he be the equivalent of Clayton Keller and and 65-70 point player based on his teammates and surroundings.

Any player that demands double digit salary better be his own line driver, otherwise he is simply Robin, to a teams #1C Batman, making him a support player and not primary player.
Exactly and the coach catered to that. Marners pts will drop under Berube. His next contract will reflect this.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Marner as a playmaker relies on other players to put the puck in the net for him to drive his point totals.
In Toronto has has pinned to the hip of the Rocket Richard winner for years now and prior also to a #1C in JT, then add Nylander to the PP group.
I have always thought in Marner had been drafted #3OA by Phoenix and buried in the desert all these years would many people even really know who he was, based on his teammates there?
Marner has not had unusual linemate quality throughout his career. Good players play with good players. He has been a line-driver on every line he has ever played on, and matched or exceeded everybody he has ever played with. He has had years with below average linemate quality to balance out the better years, and even playing with Matthews also often came with playing with a below average player in the 3rd linemate role and taking on more difficult matchups. While he does play on a stacked PP in recent years, it hasn't benefitted Marner to the degree that some think, as there's a bigger pie, but it's split relatively evenly across all of the players. He's already proven that he can produce just as well with a lesser PP. Marner would be a superstar anywhere.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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I think there absolutely are teams who would sign Marner at $12 million. It depends on if Marner wants to take a long deal or a short. If he only wants a 4 year deal and bank on one final retirement deal it wont matter. If he wants max term/dollars if the Leafs offer him the Nylander deal, another team would have to offer him the equivalent of $13+ million. I dont think a teams gives him $13 million as a ufa.
You think there are teams that would give him $12M but nobody would give him $13M as a UFA?

I just hope there's at least one who will give him $12M, so he'll leave.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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I wonder if someone like Barabanov could be a decent replacement if the Leafs do trade Robertson for a return that doesn't bring back an immediate roster player? He had a rough season last year but he was very good the previous 2 seasons.
 

Mess

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I don't know if this is true, but it very well could be and this year would be the year to find out.

The problem is I don't really see how we get Marner away from $11M players. I am pretty sure he has to play with Tavares or Nylander if want to keep him away from, and Domi with Matthews. If we have a top line of Matthews and Domi, and say Knies then we have:

Holmberg/Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann

Or

Holmberg/Jarnkrok Nylander McMann
Robertson Tavares Marner

I guess Tavares is not actually an $11M player anymore, so it would be on Mitch to carry that line...though he and Tavares haven't had great chemistry the past couple of seasons, maybe it's Marner's job to get that line and JT going? A guy worth $11M should be able to do that.

I also like him with Willy if Nylander is at C. Supporting Willy to be a strong 2C is valuable to us as well.

Knies ---- Matthews --- Nylander
Jarnkrok -- Tavares --- Robertson

Leafs 3rd line : McMann -- Domi --- Marner

Reaves --- Kampf -- Dewar

Then lets see his totals and if his ask of $12 mil is remotely reasonable :wg:
 

Mess

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I wonder if someone like Barabanov could be a decent replacement if the Leafs do trade Robertson for a return that doesn't bring back an immediate roster player? He had a rough season last year but he was very good the previous 2 seasons.

Alexander Barabanov Receiving KHL Interest


July 20, 2024 at 3:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose

Winger Alexander Barabanov has yet to find a new NHL team nearly three weeks into free agency. As a result, it appears as if he’s at least considering other options. His Russian agent Yuri Nikolaev told Championat’s Pavel Panyshev that there is interest in his client’s services from several KHL teams although it’s too early to comment on the state of any talks with those franchises.
 
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SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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Alexander Barabanov Receiving KHL Interest


July 20, 2024 at 3:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose

Winger Alexander Barabanov has yet to find a new NHL team nearly three weeks into free agency. As a result, it appears as if he’s at least considering other options. His Russian agent Yuri Nikolaev told Championat’s Pavel Panyshev that there is interest in his client’s services from several KHL teams although it’s too early to comment on the state of any talks with those franchises.

He'd be a star in the KHL likely getting good money. So I wouldn't be surprised. I don't think he'll get more than a league minimum contract anywhere here.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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I don't know if this is true, but it very well could be and this year would be the year to find out.

The problem is I don't really see how we get Marner away from $11M players. I am pretty sure he has to play with Tavares or Nylander if want to keep him away from, and Domi with Matthews. If we have a top line of Matthews and Domi, and say Knies then we have:

Holmberg/Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann

Or

Holmberg/Jarnkrok Nylander McMann
Robertson Tavares Marner

I guess Tavares is not actually an $11M player anymore, so it would be on Mitch to carry that line...though he and Tavares haven't had great chemistry the past couple of seasons, maybe it's Marner's job to get that line and JT going? A guy worth $11M should be able to do that.

I also like him with Willy if Nylander is at C. Supporting Willy to be a strong 2C is valuable to us as well.

Knies-Matthews-Domi
Mcmann-JT-Nylander.

Gives Mitch his own line, and as he's proven he can drive his own lines that shouldn't be an issue. Would theoretically solve our depth scoring issue. And we get to find out if he's a 100 point player or an 80 point player buoyed by Matthews.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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The Yzerman one is interesting for those that want to believe there is still lots of time for Marner to change his narrative and his legacy. I remember the Yzerman era and I remember that he was considered a playoff disappointment before his Red Wings finally one a cup. He was considered a playoff choker and a guy who could not bring his game when it mattered.

Of course, he went on to captain a dynasty and to be considered one of the great all time leaders in the game. He was definitely considered a winner. I checked the playoff stats recently and saw that he scored at well above a ppg in this first several seasons. For a moment, I thought I misremembered things, maybe he wasn't considered a playoff "bust". He was scoring points and the team wasn't winning. I compared his stats to Marner's and saw that Marner was below a ppg in his playoff career.

...then I added context.

As we all know Stevie Y played in a higher scoring era, much higher. So, I adjusted for era:

In Yzerman's first ten NHL seasons (the time it took to reach 56 playoff games):
  • Points per game, regular season: 1.54
  • Points per game, playoffs: 1.18
  • Playoff production drop: 23%
In Marner's first eight NHL seasons (the time to 57 playoff games):
  • Points per game, regular season: 1.10
  • Points per game, playoffs: 0.86
  • Playoff production drop: 22%
...people can argue that Marner is getting just below a ppg in the playoffs and that's hard to do, so he is not exactly disappearing. He is however, delivering at well below his regular season levels. Yes, scoring drops in the playoffs, but not at the rate at which these two specific players saw a drop. In Marner's career, playoff scoring is about 5% lower than regular season and I am not sure what it was in Yzerman's early career days but we can assume it was not 23%. Both players delivered less in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

More context?

Yzerman is referred to by many as "Captain Clutch" and his name is up there with Messier and Sakic as the greatest leaders of the era and perhaps all time. We already know that his scoring dropped in the playoffs, what about in the biggest games? Did he show up "clutch" then?

Yzerman in game 7's (in his first ten years)
  • 4 gp
  • 2 points
  • -4
That's a half a point per game and a negative +/-

Marner's game 7's
  • 6 gp
  • 2 points
  • -5
Worse, but neither player was good in those situations and one was the captain and team's best player.

The net of all of this? If you want to believe Marner can grow and develop and change his narrative and legacy, then Yzerman is a great precedent case study.

The Yzerman story is the case for patience, it wasn't until Yzerman's 14th season that he won his first cup.

I am in the "trade Marner" camp, but only in a deal that makes us better (return and cap space) and not one who thinks we dump him in a bad deal.

The other factor of course was that Yzerman played in the pre-cap era. Keeping him around did not come at the direct expense of adding to the roster around him and this is the case for moving Marner. There is an opportunity cost, if we pay MM too much we can't improve the team...there is a cap of course.
I think the bolded is a serious point.

Yzerman was 'not performing well' in the playoffs when he was the best player on the team, but improved with better teammates.

Marner is producing at basically the same rate, even though he's already playing with better teammates. (You can't compare Lidstrom to anyone, as he's on of the top three of four defencemen of all time, but Mitch has been playing with better forwards than Yzerman had in his early days.)
 
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Gaberd2608

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Marner has not had unusual linemate quality throughout his career. Good players play with good players. He has been a line-driver on every line he has ever played on, and matched or exceeded everybody he has ever played with. He has had years with below average linemate quality to balance out the better years, and even playing with Matthews also often came with playing with a below average player in the 3rd linemate role and taking on more difficult matchups. While he does play on a stacked PP in recent years, it hasn't benefitted Marner to the degree that some think, as there's a bigger pie, but it's split relatively evenly across all of the players. He's already proven that he can produce just as well with a lesser PP. Marner would be a superstar anywhere.

Top players should be able to elevate their linemates. The trade off paying player X $12+ million is that the 2 other players on the line make $6-$8 million combined. Crosby plays with meh wingers, Malkin, lots of great players. Marner may be able to but I think the way for him to prove it would be to put him on a line without Tavares, Matthews, and Nylander and see what he can do.

Hypothetically, Marner should be able to turn Jarnkrok and Domi into 50 point players.

Knies. Matthews. McMann
Robertson. Tavares. Nylander
Jarnkrok. Domi. Marner
Holmberg. Kampf. Dewar
Reaves

You think there are teams that would give him $12M but nobody would give him $13M as a UFA?

I just hope there's at least one who will give him $12M, so he'll leave.

Currently only Matthews, Mackinnon, and Mcdavid have cap hits over $12 million.

A GM may do $12 million, even that I think is a stretch. If he was a center, maybe.

Either way, I am extremely confident Brad wont let him walk for free. He will either trade him or extend him. Assuming he can trade him, at a minimum he will get a 1st + a roster player. Probably more if there is a sign/trade situation.

My biggest concern is he gets extended at $12 million for 8 years. Given they all pushed for shorter contracts, hopefully Brad can keep this one 4-5 years. No reason to pay prime dollars for non prime years.
 

Dreakmur

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Mar 25, 2008
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Orillia, Ontario
Either way, I am extremely confident Brad wont let him walk for free. He will either trade him or extend him. Assuming he can trade him, at a minimum he will get a 1st + a roster player. Probably more if there is a sign/trade situation.

My biggest concern is he gets extended at $12 million for 8 years. Given they all pushed for shorter contracts, hopefully Brad can keep this one 4-5 years. No reason to pay prime dollars for non prime years.

I think that’s Marner’s bet right now. He wants to stay, so refuse a trade and Toronto may think losing him for nothing is the worst option. He’ll have the leverage at that point.

Hopefully, Brad is smart enough to let him walk for nothing… but I think the Gaudreau situation may scare him into making the wrong call…
 

Ianturnedbull

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Jun 11, 2022
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Knies ---- Matthews --- Nylander
Jarnkrok -- Tavares --- Robertson

Leafs 3rd line : McMann -- Domi --- Marner

Reaves --- Kampf -- Dewar

Then lets see his totals and if his ask of $12 mil is remotely reasonable :wg:
Can you imagine that 3rd line?

2 small guys buzzing around teeing things up for...ugh...McMann.

I think that’s Marner’s bet right now. He wants to stay, so refuse a trade and Toronto may think losing him for nothing is the worst option. He’ll have the leverage at that point.

Hopefully, Brad is smart enough to let him walk for nothing… but I think the Gaudreau situation may scare him into making the wrong call…
If Marner was smart he would stop thinking he's as good as Matthews. He could win the PR battle and get paid.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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Draisaitl is a tier ahead of rantanen on your list

Rantanen is a tier ahead of the other guys

Nylander, Pettersson, Miller arent #2 on a contender they are 3-6 role type players. Nylander has never shown the ability to go put 9-10 pts in a playoff series like Rantanen usually does or 11-13 pts in a series like Draisaitl has done

Barzal is same tier as the 3 other guys with him being 3rd to 6th best player on a cup team, he is a player with a glaring flaw in his overpassing tendancy and that impacts his ability to generate offense and goals. He plays to much like Marner without the peak upside type plays we see once in a while
At even strength over the last four playoffs, Rantanen has averaged .77 ppg, while playing an average of 18 minutes on the top line.

At even strength over the last four playoffs, Nylander has averaged .72 ppg, while playing an average of 15:50 on the second line.

If you want to compare top line RW, at even strength over the last four playoffs, Marner has averaged .59 ppg, while playing an average of 17:06 with one of the only two centres in the league who might be considered better than MacKinnon.
 

notDatsyuk

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Jul 20, 2018
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leafs core will continue to be 2nd line producers while the elite superstars of the league will continue dominating the playoffs and winning cups (mack, rantanen, kuch, point, eichel etc) or having deep runs and insane production (mcdavid, draisaitl)

Nylander has shown zero reason to be capable of being the 2nd best player on a cup

Matthews hasnt shown anywhere capable of being the 2nd best player on a cup but he has sustained franchise level regular seasons so he still has upsude and gives reason to believe he can

Nylander hasnt had anywhere near that type of regular season play. Hes had 2 ppg seasons with his best being 11th-15th type season in the league ppg wise this year with 98 pts
His two ppg seasons have been his two most recent, and he has shown definite improvement each season, despite his usual C declining.

Also, wouldn't you consider "11th-15th type season in the league ppg wise" to be pretty good for a second line player? Of the players last year with a higher ppg only Miller had a lower toi and only Draisaitl wasn't on the top line.
 
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ULF_55

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At even strength over the last four playoffs, Rantanen has averaged .77 ppg, while playing an average of 18 minutes on the top line.

At even strength over the last four playoffs, Nylander has averaged .72 ppg, while playing an average of 15:50 on the second line.

If you want to compare top line RW, at even strength over the last four playoffs, Marner has averaged .59 ppg, while playing an average of 17:06 with one of the only two centres in the league who might be considered better than MacKinnon.

These appear to be facts, so we must fear and reject them.



Knies-Matthews-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-marner
Holmberg-Domi-Robertson/Grebyonkin
Dewar-Kampf-Jarnkrok
 

hamzarocks

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Jul 22, 2012
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At even strength over the last four playoffs, Rantanen has averaged .77 ppg, while playing an average of 18 minutes on the top line.

At even strength over the last four playoffs, Nylander has averaged .72 ppg, while playing an average of 15:50 on the second line.

If you want to compare top line RW, at even strength over the last four playoffs, Marner has averaged .59 ppg, while playing an average of 17:06 with one of the only two centres in the league who might be considered better than MacKinnon.
Nylander has played mostly second line defenses in those ~16 mins as well getting easier matchups and hes pnly played R1 teams and never had deeper runs besides last year where he had to play R2/R3/R4 which adds increased faitgue and brings in tougher defensive systems to produce against

Nylander is also part of the leafs PP which has struggled numerous times in the playoffs with his play along with Marner and Matthews, his production being hurt by poor powerplay production is on him and a big negative factor

Matthews also barely plays likr a top 30 center in the league in the playoffs with his production completely dying and falling off a cliff. Marner has struggled last 4 playoffs at times but so has matthews vs MTL, FLR and partially this year vs boston
 

hamzarocks

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Pickering, Ontario
His two ppg seasons have been his two most recent, and he has shown definite improvement each season, despite his usual C declining.

Also, wouldn't you consider "11th-15th type season in the league ppg wise" to be pretty good for a second line player? Of the players last year with a higher ppg only Miller had a lower toi and only Draisaitl wasn't on the top line.
Nylander is being paid 11.5M next year and is getting 1st line minutes this year, having played around 20 mins a game this year, his usage also had him playing with matthews at times during the year its not like he played only with Tavares whose major declined was this season and not in his 88 pt year.

Nylander is on track to be the next Mitchell Marner

11.5M absurdly high pay, above any comparables which will raise expectations and fans patience for his deficiencies,

90-100 pt reg season production (hopefully he can maintain this year production b/c if he falls to 80s ots its a shit deal off the 1st year], which will make fans think hes a top 5ish winger and franchise player setting up high hopes come playoffs

Experiencing a major decline in pts in the playoffs, with him producing 3 in 4 this year vs Boston or 61 pt pace.

He will need to be 85-90 pt player in the playoffs to have a chance of justifying is crazy deal.

He's going to be RW1 most likely and his current contracts have raised expectations now where his production of 4 in 5 vs CBJ, 3 in 5 vs FLR, and 6 in 7 vs Tampa 22, and 3 in 4 vs Boston, wont be excused away anymore behind the excuse he makes 7M and gets 2nd line opportunities while Marner makes 11M
 
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ULF_55

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Nylander has played mostly second line defenses in those ~16 mins as well getting easier matchups and hes pnly played R1 teams and never had deeper runs besides last year where he had to play R2/R3/R4 which adds increased faitgue and brings in tougher defensive systems to produce against

It would be interesting to see actuals on how many minutes against first, second and third pairings.

You would think about half the games would be at home?
 
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ULF_55

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Nylander is being paid 11.5M next year and is getting 1st line minutes this year, having played around 20 mins a game this year, his usage also had him playing with matthews at times during the year its not like he played only with Tavares whose major declined was this season and not in his 88 pt year.

Nylander is on track to be the next Mitchell Marner

11.5M absurdly high pay, above any comparables which will raise expectations and fans patience for his deficiencies,

90-100 pt reg season production (hopefully he can maintain this year production b/c if he falls to 80s ots its a shit deal off the 1st year], which will make fans think hes a top 5ish winger and franchise player setting up high hopes come playoffs

Experiencing a major decline in pts in the playoffs, with him producing 3 in 4 this year vs Boston or 61 pt pace.

He will need to be 85-90 pt player in the playoffs to have a chance of justifying is crazy deal.

He's going to be RW1 most likely and his current contracts have raised expectations now where his production of 4 in 5 vs CBJ, 3 in 5 vs FLR, and 6 in 7 vs Tampa 22, and 3 in 4 vs Boston, wont be excused away anymore behind the excuse he makes 7M and gets 2nd line opportunities while Marner makes 11M


I hear Nylander is going to play with Matthews and Knies?
 

leaffann

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Jun 23, 2024
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Leafs trade Robertson, Kampf, Reaves & Jarncrock

Leafs sign as UFA's : A. Nylander, Pacioretty & JVR

A. Nylander Matthews W. Nylander
Paciorrety Tavares Marner
JVR Domi Cowan
McMann Holmberg Knies

Reilly Tanev
OEL McCabe
Benoit Liljegren
Timmins

Woll Stolarz
 
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