Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

Updated Capwages a good replacement for CapFriendly. https://capwages.com/

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conFABulator

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Game 7 stat yikes lol. Bet those 2 points are assists or secondary assists.

the other core 3 probably have just as bad game 7 stats to be fair. Perimeter losers
yep, they all have pretty weak stats in G7s

Nylander: 5gp, 2g, 2a, 4pts, -3
Matthews: 5gp, 0g, 3a, 3pts, -2
Tavares: 4gp, 1g, 0a, 1pts, -3

...to be fair, there was a G6 where we eliminated Tampa and both Matthews and Tavares scored in that game.

Back to the original point, Yzerman looked like this also early on.
 

arso40

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Jun 7, 2022
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Draisaitl is a tier ahead of rantanen on your list

Rantanen is a tier ahead of the other guys

Nylander, Pettersson, Miller arent #2 on a contender they are 3-6 role type players. Nylander has never shown the ability to go put 9-10 pts in a playoff series like Rantanen usually does or 11-13 pts in a series like Draisaitl has done

Barzal is same tier as the 3 other guys with him being 3rd to 6th best player on a cup team, he is a player with a glaring flaw in his overpassing tendancy and that impacts his ability to generate offense and goals. He plays to much like Marner without the peak upside type plays we see once in a while
Your out to lunch
 
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hamzarocks

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Jul 22, 2012
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Your out to lunch
leafs core will continue to be 2nd line producers while the elite superstars of the league will continue dominating the playoffs and winning cups (mack, rantanen, kuch, point, eichel etc) or having deep runs and insane production (mcdavid, draisaitl)

Nylander has shown zero reason to be capable of being the 2nd best player on a cup

Matthews hasnt shown anywhere capable of being the 2nd best player on a cup but he has sustained franchise level regular seasons so he still has upsude and gives reason to believe he can

Nylander hasnt had anywhere near that type of regular season play. Hes had 2 ppg seasons with his best being 11th-15th type season in the league ppg wise this year with 98 pts
 
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LeafEgo

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leafs core will continue to be 2nd line producers while the elite superstars of the league will continue dominating the playoffs and winning cups (mack, rantanen, kuch, point, eichel etc) or having deep runs and insane production (mcdavid, draisaitl)

Nylander has shown zero reason to be capable of being the 2nd best player on a cup

Matthews hasnt shown anywhere capable of being the 2nd best player on a cup but he has sustained franchise level regular seasons so he still has upsude and gives reason to believe he can

Nylander hasnt had anywhere near that type of regular season play. Hes had 2 ppg seasons with his best being 11th-15th type season in the league ppg wise this year with 98 pts
In our most recent example of what Nylander can do in the playoffs, coming off illness, in 4 games he broke an elimination game by sinking a breakaway in the third period. Then, in game 7 he scored in the third period with what should have been the gwg.

He ain't Mack or McD, but he's as good as you need as a #2 behind Matty, if Matty activates this upside you mentioned.
 

conFABulator

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Man our bottom 6 projections are bleak as f***

Jarnkrok, reeves, Kampf, Holmberg thats four guys that combined are unlikely to score 1 goal between them in a playoff series that goes to 7

Robertson + McMann are where we are banking our hopes for offense from but both are unproven overall and playoffs have little to no production history

The core 4 + domi and knies will need to deliver almost all our offense which is a big ask if the core 4 were capabpe players of performing. They fall off heavy come playoffs, and with a disastourous bottom 6 it becomes hard to imagine any grinding hero to win us a few games in a series like other teams have seen from their depth players.

Hope we can add Sprong at 2-3M and then deal for a 3C at the deadline next year to make the teams forward group look more passable
How about this lineup?

Knies Matthews Domi
Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann
Holmberg Kampf Dewar

That bottom six could kick in 60 to 70 if goals, no?
 

hamzarocks

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Jul 22, 2012
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In our most recent example of what Nylander can do in the playoffs, coming off illness, in 4 games he broke an elimination game by sinking a breakaway in the third period. Then, in game 7 he scored in the third period with what should have been the gwg.

He ain't Mack or McD, but he's as good as you need as a #2 behind Matty, if Matty activates this upside you mentioned.
No 3 pts in 4 games isnt good enough to be a #2 on a cup winner

Woll/Goalie has to be number 1 because we are a poor offensivwly constructed team
Matthews is our #2
We need to acquire #3 in form of a 1D
Nylander can be number 4 if hes at his best
 
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hamzarocks

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Jul 22, 2012
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How about this lineup?

Knies Matthews Domi
Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann
Holmberg Kampf Dewar

That bottom six could kick in 60 to 70 if goals, no?
We have never tried 88 as C and I doubt we will tbh

The bottom 6 is better for sure but I doubt we try JT at 3C and WN at 2C

Most likely lines

Domi - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Holmberg - McMann
Jarnkrok - Kampf - Reeves/Dewar

We have some truly horrific playoff players down there

1. Jarnkrok is the antithesis of a playoff player, soft, brings little energy and has an insane drop in production

2. Kampf is alright as 4C but he at times get played up and isnt an offensive credible threat. There can only/should only be the only 1 of dewar/reeves, jarnkrok, holmberg in our bottom 6 lineup come playoffs.

Playoffs:

XXX - Matthews - Domi
Knies - XXX - Nylander/Marner
Robertson - XXX - Marner/Nylander
XXX - Kampf - McMann

We need 1LW, 2C, 3C, and 4LW for the team.

Tavares really needs to be played down the line and in a reduced role. I hope berube moves him to 4LW if he has as bad a year as he did this year and PP2 usage.

Cowan, Greb are options as well for 4LW if we stick with Tavares as 2C or 3C option

Hopefully we do use our 2nd rounder + niemela type prospect to add a good 3C who can provide good scoring and has size and physical play with some term and good seasons left down the line

Options include: Yanni gourde, B Tanev, Trent Frederic
 
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LeafEgo

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No 3 pts in 4 games isnt good enough to be a #2 on a cup winner

Woll/Goalie has to be number 1 because we are a poor offensivwly constructed team
Matthews is our #2
We need to acquire #3 in form of a 1D
Nylander can be number 4 if hes at his best
Thought you meant #2 as a forward. Willy isn't a goalie or a defenceman.

'3 pts in 4 games' means basically nothing at all.

Without going down the rabbit hole of team construction, I would just say that Willy provides as much as you should need out of a #2 forward, which is what he needs to be for us now.
 
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conFABulator

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We have never tried 88 as C and I doubt we will tbh

The bottom 6 is better for sure but I doubt we try JT at 3C and WN at 2C

Most likely lines

Domi - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Holmberg - McMann
Jarnkrok - Kampf - Reeves/Dewar

We have some truly horrific playoff players down there

1. Jarnkrok is the antithesis of a playoff player, soft, brings little energy and has an insane drop in production

2. Kampf is alright as 4C but he at times get played up and isnt an offensive credible threat. There can only/should only be the only 1 of dewar/reeves, jarnkrok, holmberg in our bottom 6 lineup come playoffs.
No, we haven't tried 88 at C, really.

Right after Treliving arrived it was mentioned that Nylander would be tried out at C. Keefe did it for about two weeks in camp and that was it. I am sure Tre shared his opinions on this Berube.

There has also been some talk over the years of trying Marner at C and Dubas always shot that down.

Both Nylander and Marner have C experience.

I don't see the harm I not only trying, but in setting it up for success. Give him the correct wingers to complement his style and give it enough time to work.

This team is so much better now and moving forward if we have a top tier 2C that we don't have to acquire from outside of the organization.

Matthews, Nylander, Tavares could be the best three centre depth chart in the league.

Matthews, Tavares, Holmberg is not.

Tavares is getting older, we need to find his replacement at 2C and maybe set him up to succeed as a 3C.

I don't know if it works, but I absolutely think we should try.
 

hamzarocks

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Thought you meant #2 as a forward. Willy isn't a goalie or a defenceman.

'3 pts in 4 games' means basically nothing at all.

Without going down the rabbit hole of team construction, I would just say that Willy provides as much as you should need out of a #2 forward, which is what he needs to be for us now.
I meant #2 player on the team.

I think at his very best nylander prob can be #2 forward but 4th best player on the team.

If hes not on and just playing alright his play is closer to 3rd to 4th forward and 5th to 6th player.
 
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Captain Crunch

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Game 7 stat yikes lol. Bet those 2 points are assists or secondary assists.

the other core 3 probably have just as bad game 7 stats to be fair. Perimeter losers
In the last 5 seasons, in games 3-5 (Columbus play-in round), and the last 2-3 series deciding games since then, Marner has 0 goals and 8 assists. He has been the least productive of the core 4.
 
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conFABulator

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If those are the only two options, you let him walk. Under no circumstances can Marner be re-signed unless it’s done as part of a sign and trade. People need to understand that moving Marner should be done with more than simply opening up cap space in mind. Moving Marner signifies to fans a players alike that management is implementing a culture change as well.
I agree with this. If we assume that Marner cannot be moved for something of value by the TDL, and at this point I think that is a reasonable assumption, then I see only two viable options:
  1. He plays out this contract and we let him walk at the end of another disappointing playoff for him. We convert his cap space into something of value...say Ekblad, with money leftover for something else (small)
  2. He leads us to playoff success, meaning be is a big reason for success....like winning two rounds at least and then we resign him to $12M contract. If he wants more we let him walk and revert to option (1).
In both cases, he is playing for a contract all year and playoffs and he knows it.
 

LeafEgo

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I agree with this. If we assume that Marner cannot be moved for something of value by the TDL, and at this point I think that is a reasonable assumption, then I see only two viable options:
  1. He plays out this contract and we let him walk at the end of another disappointing playoff for him. We convert his cap space into something of value...say Ekblad, with money leftover for something else (small)
  2. He leads us to playoff success, meaning be is a big reason for success....like winning two rounds at least and then we resign him to $12M contract. If he wants more we let him walk and revert to option (1).
In both cases, he is playing for a contract all year and playoffs and he knows it.
By definition, for as long as Mitch doesn't have a contract he will be playing for a contract all year.

It feels likely he will get a 9th chance to show that he is a player the Leafs have to keep. That's a tall order given we have Matty and Willy locked up already. Would be a hell of a thing.
 
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conFABulator

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By definition, for as long as Mitch doesn't have a contract he will be playing for a contract all year.

It feels likely he will get a 9th chance to show that he is a player the Leafs have to keep. That's a tall order given we have Matty and Willy locked up already. Would be a hell of a thing.
I agree, I think we end up letting him walk. I like that option (and him having one last chance to prove it in a contract year) over dumping him in a losing trade or resigning him for more than we feel he is worth.
 
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LeafEgo

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I agree, I think we end up letting him walk. I like that option (and him having one last chance to prove it in a contract year) over dumping him in a losing trade or resigning him for more than we feel he is worth.
That's really what it comes down to. I suspect we've seen enough to make the right decision to move on, but it isn't an option. We're resigned to banking on the the smaller percent upside that Marners 9th year evaluation will produce us a Yzerman reborn. So we hope for that for now, because that's what we have, and then probably move on next year.
 

conFABulator

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That's really what it comes down to. I suspect we've seen enough to make the right decision to move on, but it isn't an option. We're resigned to banking on the the smaller percent upside that Marners 9th year evaluation will produce us a Yzerman reborn. So we hope for that for now, because that's what we have, and then probably move on next year.
Earlier I replied to an Yzerman type comparison, either in this thread or another one.

I was surprised at similar Yzerman's career was as far as being a playoff underperformer at the point in his career that Mitch is at now. It took Stevie Y, captain clutch 14 years to win a cup.

Pre-cap world, there was no opportunity cost in keeping Yzerman there while they around him. We don't have that luxury.
 

LeafEgo

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Earlier I replied to an Yzerman type comparison, either in this thread or another one.

I was surprised at similar Yzerman's career was as far as being a playoff underperformer at the point in his career that Mitch is at now. It took Stevie Y, captain clutch 14 years to win a cup.

Pre-cap world, there was no opportunity cost in keeping Yzerman there while they around him. We don't have that luxury.
Right, but we're not putting together a ten year plan here, that's sucking thumb and putting it in the wind.

Dubie was a circus and our current mgmt team is not strong yet, so we are unable to take the best path forward, and forced to take a lesser path and hope for the best.
 
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Antropovsky

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Earlier I replied to an Yzerman type comparison, either in this thread or another one.

I was surprised at similar Yzerman's career was as far as being a playoff underperformer at the point in his career that Mitch is at now. It took Stevie Y, captain clutch 14 years to win a cup.

Pre-cap world, there was no opportunity cost in keeping Yzerman there while they around him. We don't have that luxury.
Took Yzerman 14 years but he was on some abysmal teams without alot of support. He was their leading scorer by over 50 points at times

Once some other players (Federov, Lidstrom) arrived they were winning playoff games and championships.

Not really similar to Marner or the Leafs. This is as a team with what should be enough talent and they cant get past the 1st rnd. This year they were down 3-1...so things really arent getting better either.
 

conFABulator

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Right, but we're not putting together a ten year plan here, that's sucking thumb and putting it in the wind.

Dubie was a circus and our current mgmt team is not strong yet, so we are unable to take the best path forward, and forced to take a lesser path and hope for the best.
I actually made the point that th cap being in place nullifies any cross era examples. If Yzerman was eating 12% of his team'a cap they could not have built the team around him to win his first SC, when he was fifth in playoff scoring on a team that included Shanahan, Fedorov, Lidsrom, Fetisov, Larionov, and Murphy.

Conversely, if there were no cap now we would happily keep Marner and add free agents around him that hide his playoff deficiencies
 
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conFABulator

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Took Yzerman 14 years but he was on some abysmal teams without alot of support. He was their leading scorer by over 50 points at times

Once some other players (Federov, Lidstrom) arrived they were winning playoff games and championships.

Not really similar to Marner or the Leafs. This is as a team with what should be enough talent and they cant get past the 1st rnd. This year they were down 3-1...so things really arent getting better either.
I don't disagree. The only actual point of comparison is that fans questioned Yzerman's heart and ability to bring it in the playoffs.
 

Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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You prefer to pay him $12.5mx4-8 before the playoffs? If you think the hate is bad this summer, imagine what it will be next year if they are punted in round #1 and Mitch has 3 points in the series and plays like he has the last two series? He will be an untradable, more expensive Hubie and Johnny Hockey. That is the worst case IMO.

If the Leafs cannot risk losing him, then they have to trade him as many have said, even at 90 cents on the dollar.
I'd preferred to have traded him prior to the draft, but here we are.

What about the hate when Marner walks for nothing, and fans hate on the terrible asset management moment... just like they did when Johnny Hockey walked from Calgary? They've basically gotten to the damned if you do, damned if you don't point. I doubt management is concerned with a popularity contest anyway, and really they shouldn't be. They don't management by public opinion.

The BEST scenario for the Leafs, is an extension, where the full NMC, NTC doesn't enact until the second year of the contract. I don't see Huberdeau on near the same level... this is a 0.87 PPG guy, Marner is a 1.11 PPG guy... just different levels... at least in the regular season. There will always be demand for a guy who can produce in the regular season at that level, especially from teams who are concerned with even qualifying for the playoffs.
 
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Dekes For Days

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Who have they had for linemates in those 3 years?
Linemates don't close that massive of a gap.
Compared to what they have not accomplished in the playoffs, they are all overpaid.
Players aren't paid based on team accomplishments in the playoffs.
Shanahan and Dubas had the golden opportunity to make this team special with the players and assets they had at their disposal. Instead, they most likely will go down as one of the worst President/GM combos in Leafs’ history
It's odd how people who are the most dismissive of our star players - who think they suck in the playoffs and we can never win with them no matter what and want them gone - are the ones who claim they represent a "golden opportunity". It's contradictory. Worst in Leafs history is something nobody of this current era will come close to, as we've had some horrible management in our past, but Shanahan/Lou and Shanahan/Treliving are the ones that history will remember as the ones that screwed this era up.
Agreed, but this team at the present time is not a legitimate Cup contender. If we could get a solid 2C and have Tavares as our 3C, then I would feel a little more optimistic.
Tavares is still a good 2C. 2C is the least of our problems. We need a 3C, but we seem to have prioritized bottom pairing defensemen, 4th liners, and unnecessary wingers.
Getting back to legitimate cup contender will now probably rely on Tanev and OEL finding hidden magic in their mid-30s, and an unproven goalie tandem excelling.
 
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ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
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I'd preferred to have traded him prior to the draft, but here we are.

What about the hate when Marner walks for nothing, and fans hate on the terrible asset management moment... just like they did when Johnny Hockey walked from Calgary? They've basically gotten to the damned if you do, damned if you don't point. I doubt management is concerned with a popularity contest anyway, and really they shouldn't be. They don't management by public opinion.

The BEST scenario for the Leafs, is an extension, where the full NMC, NTC doesn't enact until the second year of the contract. I don't see Huberdeau on near the same level... this is a 0.87 PPG guy, Marner is a 1.11 PPG guy... just different levels... at least in the regular season. There will always be demand for a guy who can produce in the regular season at that level, especially from teams who are concerned with even qualifying for the playoffs.
As anther poster said you only sign him in order to trade him but if not, then the next best signing option is to not give him a full NMC so that if they decide they want to go in a different direction, they can. Not sure I agree with only giving the team one year to move him though and I doubt the Marner camp will give up the full NMC given they gave it to the other core members.

As for management, IMO they do care about fan opinion. It is why they are afraid to let him walk for nothing and afraid to trade him and risk embarrassing themselves like they did the Kadri deal.
 
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