Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[conFABulator]

Maybe ideal, but these guys aren't available right now.

That's the issue. Saying that we need a 2C is easier said that done. Who? At what acquisition cost? How to do we fit then under the cap.

This is why I am so sure we need to give Willy at 2C an honest try and not just 19 days at training camp like Keefe did last year. We know Tre wants to try this and I am sure he has shared this opinion with Berube.

We move Will to C, we give it time to see if works and we give it every opportunity to work. The fear of course is that he can't play strong enough D for the position. Maybe he can, and we can support him with defensively strong wingers.

What about:

Knies Matthews Domi
Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann
Holmberg Kampf Dewar

...we could swap Holmberg and Jarnkrok.

Why not give this a try and solve 2C from within?

 

[Eye Test]

The Yzerman one is interesting for those that want to believe there is still lots of time for Marner to change his narrative and his legacy. I remember the Yzerman era and I remember that he was wondered a playoff disappointment before his Red Wings finally one a cup. He was considered a playoff choker and a guy who could not bring his game when it mattered. If course, he went on to captain a dynasty and to be considered one of the great all time leaders in the game. He was definitely considered a winner. I checked the playoff stats recently and saw that he scored at well above a ppg in this first several seasons. For a moment, I thought I misremembered things, maybe he wasn't considered a playoff "bust". He was scoring points and the team wasn't winning. I compared his stats to Marner's and saw that Marner was below a ppg in his playoff career.

...then I added context.

As we all know Stevie Y played in a higher scoring era, much higher. So, I adjusted for era:

In Yzerman's first ten NHL seasons (the time it took to reach 56 playoff games):

• Points per game, regular season: 1.54
• Points per game, playoffs: 1.18
• Playoff production drop: 23%

In Marner's first eight NHL seasons (the time to 57 playoff games):

• Points per game, regular season: 1.10
• Points per game, playoffs: 0.86
• Playoff production drop: 22%

...people can argue that Marner is getting just below a ppg in the playoffs and that's hard to do, so he is not exactly disappearing. He is however, delivering at well below his regular season levels. Yes, scoring drops in the playoffs, but not at the rate at which these two specific players saw a drop. In Marner's career, playoff scoring is about 5% lower than regular season and I am not sure what it was in Yzerman's early career days but we can assume it was not 23%. Both players delivered less in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

More context?

Yzerman is referred to by many as "Captain Clutch" and his name is up there with Messier and Sakic as the greatest leaders of the era and perhaps all time. We already know that his scoring dropped in the playoffs, what about in the biggest games? Did he show up "clutch" then?

Yzerman in game 7's (in his first ten years)

• 4 gp
• 2 points
• -4

That's a half a point per game and a negative +/-

Marner's game 7's

• 6 gp
• 2 points
• -5

Worse, but neither player was good in those situations and one was the captain and team's best player.

The net of all of this? If you want to believe Marner can grow and develop and change his narrative and legacy, then Yzerman is a great precedent case study.

The Yzerman story is the case for patience, it wasn't until Yzerman's 14th season that he won his first cup.

I am in the "trade Marner" camp, but only in a deal that makes us better (return and cap space) and not one who thinks we dump him in a bad deal.

The other factor of course was that Yzerman played in the pre-capital era. Keeping him around did not come at the direct expense of adding to the roster around him and this is the case for moving Marner. There is an opportunity cost, if we pay MM too much we can't improve the team...there is a cap of course.

Game 7 stat yikes lol. Bet those 2 points are assists or secondary assists.

the other core 3 probably have just as bad game 7 stats to be fair. Perimeter losers

 

[Captain Crunch]

Well, the left side has Knies, Domi (though he may stay on AM’s right or slide to a C spot), Holmberg (maybe a C), Robertson, Grebenkin (right and left winger), Mann, Dewar (maybe a C), Cowan (seems to be a forward, rather than a set position), and even Steeves. Lots of options.
I line Mann down there if the 4th line is reinvented and given more rope.
Odds are that guys will mix and match most of the year, though I agree NickRob should get some burn even to boost his stock. I could see 30 goals pretty easy if he played with a slick passer.

Of this group the only ones I feel fairly confident in as top 6 left wingers are Knies and Domi (I would prefer Domi plays there rather than at center). I definitely would try Robertson in a top 6 role on his natural left side, and have Domi play on the right side with Matthews, moving Marner down to L2.

I also like McMann. Hoping he can put his injury problems behind him.

As for the rest, they are still fairly young and therefore unproven. I really like Cowan, but to expect him to come in and be an impactful player consistently right from the start, that is expecting way too much too soon.

 

[Captain Crunch]

That's the issue. Saying that we need a 2C is easier said that done. Who? At what acquisition cost? How to do we fit then under the cap.

This is why I am so sure we need to give Willy at 2C an honest try and not just 19 days at training camp like Keefe did last year. We know Tre wants to try this and I am sure he has shared this opinion with Berube.

We move Will to C, we give it time to see if works and we give it every opportunity to work. The fear of course is that he can't play strong enough D for the position. Maybe he can, and we can support him with defensively strong wingers.

What about:

Knies Matthews Domi
Jarnkrok Nylander Marner
Robertson Tavares McMann
Holmberg Kampf Dewar

...we could swap Holmberg and Jarnkrok.

Why not give this a try and solve 2C from within?

I bolded L3 as well. I wonder if it would work if instead we switched Jarnkrok and Robertson. Gives Robertson a chance in the top 6, plus it also gives lines 2 and 3 a proper left and right winger.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Maybe ideal, but these guys aren't available right now.

Pre-season, probably not. But that's the type of player that I'd be looking to add during the season / at the deadline, to add depth down the middle and create a 3rd scoring line.

 

[SprDaVE]

Great signing for the Canucks.

 

[ToneDog]

IMO, if they aren't going to trade him, they need to extend him before the season. Waiting until after the playoff performance, and then running the risk of losing him for nothing is the bigger fireable offense to me.

You prefer to pay him $12.5mx4-8 before the playoffs? If you think the hate is bad this summer, imagine what it will be next year if they are punted in round #1 and Mitch has 3 points in the series and plays like he has the last two series? He will be an untradable, more expensive Hubie and Johnny Hockey. That is the worst case IMO.

If the Leafs cannot risk losing him, then they have to trade him as many have said, even at 90 cents on the dollar.

 

[Sypher04]

You prefer to pay him $12.5mx4-8 before the playoffs? If you think the hate is bad this summer, imagine what it will be next year if they are punted in round #1 and Mitch has 3 points in the series and plays like he has the last two series? He will be an untradable, more expensive Hubie and Johnny Hockey. That is the worst case IMO.

If the Leafs cannot risk losing him, then they have to trade him as many have said, even at 90 cents on the dollar.

Problem is, even if they want to trade him, it’s not up to them. At this point he is most likely either extending or walking.

Great signing for the Canucks.

I’m honestly not sure why would didn’t do this. Unless Sprong wasn’t interested in coming here, but that seems unlikely

 

[Al14]

Great signing for the Canucks.

I agree, for that money, he's a great acquisition.

Can someone please check if Treliving is awake and not sleeping once again.

 

[SprDaVE]

I’m honestly not sure why would didn’t do this. Unless Sprong wasn’t interested in coming here, but that seems unlikely

I am not sure but it's likely because he's a right handed RW with a lot of issues away from the puck. So perhaps they didn't feel like he'd add enough to the lineup? I dunno. But for less than 1M, 40 points seems very good regardless of the warts. Maybe they offered something similar but nothing suggests the Leafs were interested at this time.

 

[1specter]

Not too fussed about Sprong. Not very good defensively and if Robertson stays I'd rather just give him a chance, or Steeves or someone.

 

[Kurtz]

Sprong makes Domi look like a Selke winner.

 

[hamzarocks]

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The leafs having a shitty PP is on the core 5 not any way the positive you want to pretend it to be

also the Avs have won series multiple times on the back of their superatars and a cup

We have kept on failing

 

[Martin Skoula]

Draisaitl is a tier ahead of rantanen on your list

Rantanen is a tier ahead of the other guys

Nylander, Pettersson, Miller arent #2 on a contender they are 3-6 role type players. Nylander has never shown the ability to go put 9-10 pts in a playoff series like Rantanen usually does or 11-13 pts in a series like Draisaitl has done

Barzal is same tier as the 3 other guys with him being 3rd to 6th best player on a cup team, he is a player with a glaring flaw in his overpassing tendancy and that impacts his ability to generate offense and goals. He plays to much like Marner without the peak upside type plays we see once in a while

I’m not tiering them necessarily, it’s more the versatility of high end skills. Those guys can all play the game multiple ways and have elite shooting and passing + either high end skating or high end puck protection. Barzal just has the skating and passing, if he doesn’t get you into a counter attack punch for punch game he’s not going to beat you on the cycle.

 

[ULF_55]

The leafs having a shitty PP is on the core 5 not any way the positive you want to pretend it to be

also the Avs have won series multiple times on the back of their superatars and a cup

We have kept on failing

I actually didn't make any "positive" statement in my post.

If you are speaking to others fine, but myself I just posted facts, not opinion.

I do post opinion on many occasions, but not this time.

 

[ULF_55]

I am not sure but it's likely because he's a right handed RW with a lot of issues away from the puck. So perhaps they didn't feel like he'd add enough to the lineup? I dunno. But for less than 1M, 40 points seems very good regardless of the warts. Maybe they offered something similar but nothing suggests the Leafs were interested at this time.

Toronto versus Vancouver for the same money ...

Why not neither?

I still think I'd take Vancouver due to the city, climate and surroundings.

Yes, traffic around the bridges can be ugly, but that's only about 2-3 highway issues.

 

[conFABulator]

I bolded L3 as well. I wonder if it would work if instead we switched Jarnkrok and Robertson. Gives Robertson a chance in the top 6, plus it also gives lines 2 and 3 a proper left and right winger.

Great question.

There are a lot of options and mixing and matching possibilities. I guess that's a good thing and with a new coach he can try lots of configurations and some may drive unexpected results.

As for the specific option you mention.

(a) Robertson - Tavares - McMann worked well last year from what I can remember, I think someone posted some stats on it somewhere here also.

(b) I don't live the idea of Willy and Robertson on together from a defensive perspective. I want Willy to succeed at C and I think the defensively responsible wingers could be a big part of that.

I would like to give all three lines a chance to succeed. Maybe give:

• Line 1 : 14 to 16 ES minutes a night
• Line 2 : 13 to 15 ES
• Line 3 : 12 to 14 ES
• Line 4 : 6 to 8 ES

There are 24 minutes of PP time for four forward every night and 12 minutes of PK time.

 

[Cassell]

Problem is, even if they want to trade him, it’s not up to them. At this point he is most likely either extending or walking.

If those are the only two options, you let him walk. Under no circumstances can Marner be re-signed unless it’s done as part of a sign and trade. People need to understand that moving Marner should be done with more than simply opening up cap space in mind. Moving Marner signifies to fans a players alike that management is implementing a culture change as well.

 

[Sypher04]

If those are the only two options, you let him walk. Under no circumstances can Marner be re-signed unless it’s done as part of a sign and trade. People need to understand that moving Marner should be done with more than simply opening up cap space in mind. Moving Marner signifies to fans a players alike that management is implementing a culture change as well.

That’s one opinion.
It’s not necessarily correct, but it’s a fair position. I don’t necessarily see things so black and white

 

[conFABulator]

I agree, for that money, he's a great acquisition.

Can someone please check if Treliving is awake and not sleeping once again.

He's "a great acquisition" every off-season by a team that ends up healthy scratching him a bunch of times and then letting him walk to another team that signs him for league minimum.

I suspect next off-season he goes to Europe. He provides offense, but is a negative defensive contributor.

I would much rather see Robertson get that ice time and there is no way both should be getting top nine ice time and neither is a fourth liner.

They have both scored at roughly the same rate in their careers and Robertson is four years younger. We don't know that NR is a lost cause defensively, we just know he needs to work on it.

I am very interested in seeing him get a full season and 15 minutes a night with some PP time. Based on last year's statistical performance that projects to be a 25 to 30 goal season and 50 to 60 points, both of which are greater than anything Sprong has produced in an NHL season.

 

[Sypher04]

He's "a great acquisition" every off-season by a team that ends up healthy scratching him a bunch of times and then letting him walk to another team that signs him for league minimum.

I suspect next off-season he goes to Europe. He provides offense, but is a negative defensive contributor.

I would much rather see Robertson get that ice time and there is no way both should be getting top nine ice time and neither is a fourth liner.

They have both scored at roughly the same rate in their careers and Robertson is four years younger. We don't know that NR is a lost cause defensively, we just know he needs to work on it.

I am very interested in seeing him get a full season and 15 minutes a night with some PP time. Based on last year's statistical performance that projects to be a 25 to 30 goal season and 50 to 60 points, both of which are greater than anything Sprong has produced in an NHL season.

Truth be told, at a similar price to what Vancouver got Sprong, JVR may actually be a better add.

 

[Cassell]

That’s one opinion.
It’s not necessarily correct, but it’s a fair position. I don’t see things so black and white

Fair enough. My opinion is obviously my own, and I don’t pretend to believe that, given the opportunity, my attempt at making these decisions in Treliving’s position would be anything other than an abysmal failure. There’s a reason I’m watching and reading about these people and not the other way around.

 

[rumman]

If those are the only two options, you let him walk. Under no circumstances can Marner be re-signed unless it’s done as part of a sign and trade. People need to understand that moving Marner should be done with more than simply opening up cap space in mind. Moving Marner signifies to fans a players alike that management is implementing a culture change as well.

Well said…….

Fair enough. My opinion is obviously my own, and I don’t pretend to believe that, given the opportunity, my attempt at making these decisions in Treliving’s position would be anything other than an abysmal failure. There’s a reason I’m watching and reading about these people and not the other way around.

Don’t sell yourself short, your opinion is spot on imo…….

 

[conFABulator]

Truth be told, at a similar price to what Vancouver got Sprong, JVR may actually be a better add.

Yeah, I could see that.

Again, maybe only if Robertson is moved.

 

[Sypher04]

Well said…….


Don’t sell yourself short, your opinion is spot on imo…….

Contrary to popular belief you CAN change the culture of a team without changing the core. Not saying it’s easy, but it’s doable. I don’t think signifying direction to the fanbase actually matters one iota to the on ice success of the team. Until there are successful results we can hang our hat on this fanbase is going to be ornery regardless.

I don’t think he is selling himself short so much as he’s acknowledging that those working in the NHL are pretty well universally far more knowledgeable than those of us armchairing from Hfboards every day