Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[notDatsyuk]

The whole idea of a "per 82 games" is projecting their scoring pace onto a larger sample size.....

Exactly. It makes as much sense as saying Matthews is a 328 goal scorer because he scored four in his first game.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The reason 82 is the number is because that’s a full season.



Out of how many ?



You projected them to an 82 game season average.



The points per 82 games is a projection stat. The entire point of it is to say “if he played every game, he would have scored X”



I’ll do it in a way that isn’t disingenuous…

I would suggest you stop wasting your time. He will never admit that projecting a partial season into a full season is a projection, no matter how many times it is explained to him.

The best that can happen is that after cluttering up the boards with gibberish for a while and being proven wrong often enough, he will take a week or two off. Without, of course, admitting to having been wrong about anything.

 

[Martin Skoula]

You also have to consider Barzal has led or was tied for 1st in Islanders scoring for every season he's been in the league except 2022-23 when he missed significant time... so he is giving them first line production for whatever they're doing over there.

It’s a coinflip on whether they’re running an all-time uniquely offense-phobic system or they just don’t have any good offensive players. Personally I don’t think Horvat and Barzal have any business being your #1 offensive threat, if you’re a playoff team they have a tough argument for being your #2 offensive threat. Horvat is just a shooter and Barzal is just a passer, they don’t have a well rounded enough game to even be a legitimate #2 on a contender the way that a Rantanen, Nylander, Draisaitl, Miller/Pettersson, etc is.

 

[LeafSteel]

I would suggest you stop wasting your time. He will never admit that projecting a partial season into a full season is a projection, no matter how many times it is explained to him.

The best that can happen is that after cluttering up the boards with gibberish for a while and being proven wrong often enough, he will take a week or two off. Without, of course, admitting to having been wrong about anything.

Thank you.

I don’t understand why people insist on giving this guy any time but it makes the boards unreadable.

The whole shtick is stale and predictable and it leaves large portions of multiple threads unreadable.

Leave him alone and he goes away.

 

[Captain Crunch]

An individual contract is not based on what round your team got to.

Chicago was plenty deep. He was just on a team that got PPs, in an era when PPs were handed out like candy, and he didn't have a brain dead coach.

A 20.6% bigger contract for 20.8% higher ES production, 25.5% higher PP production, plus PKing and an extra year seems more than reasonable.

So were these percentages based on one year’s performance?

 

[Peasy]

Liljergren,Hakanpaa,OEL = 3 players, and 2 RHD and 1 that can play both sides

Roy got overpaid and his career high in points is 26 in 82 games played.
Lil had 23 points in 55 games last season, with lower toi.

and Haka isnt official yet, so we still have 2.5 available

Tanev career high of 28 points, 34 and is turning 35 by end of year just got 4.5.

Comparing a d man that is know for their defensive game by just looking at their point totals is the dumbest thing possible. None of those 3 guys even come close to what Roy brings on the defensive side of things.

 

[Captain Crunch]

If there was a market for Kampf/Calle to reclaim some picks….and there will be, I’d be very fine rolling the kids in and out of the lineup and signing Johnson.
A fourth line on McMann-Dewar-Johnson would be good for 40 goals while bringing speed and tenacity.

Our left side, right now, is a little on the weak side. If McMann is playing on the 4th line, will that mean his minutes also go down, and therefore his points as well? He shouldn’t be any lower than 3rd line.

Hoping Robertson plays top 6 and finally has a breakout season, or at least one good enough that we can trade him for at least a 2nd round pick.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I wouldn't worry about a few months of Tavares declining further.

He'll be fine for this year, even if they had to do something like,
Tavares-Holmberg/Minten-Jarnkrok
it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Centers: Matthews, Tavares, Domi, Kampf, Holmberg, Minten.

Knies, Matthews, marner, Nylander, perhaps even Robertson have to score, and even if Tavares declined 10% he'd be close to a 60 point player.

It's just one year ... maybe the new coach knows how to integrate prospects, as he's done that successfully in the past.

Leafs haven't had a good coach for a long time, Quinn or Burns who worked with what they had. Lidstrom wasn't ever on the Leafs so I won't include Babcock.

It would be great if we could somehow acquire a legitimate 2C, and have Tavares as our 3C, but that only happens if we trade Marner which I don’t see happening. Also, we are weaker on the left side.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Yeah, maybe he never had it in him?

But at this point, maybe he'd be a half price Kampf?

I like that idea, but I think if we traded Kampf then we’d either have to retain some salary or take back another bad contract.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I disagree completely. He's probably not going to be an amazing player but I think he's got another step in consistency and he's already a pretty solid player anyway, especially at his cap hit. He took some good steps last year, so no reason to think he can't continue an upwards trend. There isn't a magical age where people stop developing or being able to take another step.

I like Minten but he'll need to be a whole lot better than Holmberg, or whoever else, to start waiving players. It's not impossible, just unlikely. Minten can do a lot of development in the AHL playing bigger minutes. If Minten comes in training camp and does very well, then of course you start at looking at who can be demoted based on performance -- and that could be Holmberg. Could also be Reaves or Dewar really.

I like Holmberg, but it seems he needs to play in the top 6 as a winger to be effective. But then that leads to his consistency problems. If he could make a big jump in his faceoff percentage, then I would be okay with him replacing Kampf as our 4C. But trading Kampf without having to retain salary or take back a bad contract will be extremely, if not impossible, thing to do.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So were these percentages based on one year’s performance?

No, their whole pre-signing period.

 

[Captain Crunch]

If only our guys could be like that.

My thoughts exactly! But it would have been nice to see Shanahan and Dubas have the balls to not have given them those contracts in the 1st place.

 

[Captain Crunch]

No, their whole pre-signing period.

Matthews is a legitimate #1 C. He can score and is a 200 ft. center. My main bone of contention with him is he has never committed long term to this team. Marner was overpaid, and will be wanting even more on his next contract. Nylander is now overpaid as well, but at least he was willing to commit long term.

This mess the Leafs now find themselves in is all on Shanahan. Individually, these core players (in the regular season) are very good, but as a group they have continually shown that they can’t get it done when it really counts, the playoffs. It is long overdue that changes need to be made to this core. Unfortunately Shanahan has made it next to impossible to do this. Thankfully he has been stripped of how this team needs to be constructed. That move was long overdue!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Barzal also returned to an 80 point level this past season because the Islanders also had Bo Horvat for a full season...

Barzal returned to an 80 point level (which is still not close to Marner) this past season because he played more minutes, and picked up a bunch of points at 3v3 and 6v5. It didn't really have anything to do with Horvat or Trotz (who left 2 seasons ago). In fact, this was Barzal's worst year of his career producing at 5v5. Barzal's lack of production is on him, not anybody else. He's just not in the same tier offensively or defensively as somebody like Marner.

Matthews is a legitimate #1 C. He can score and is a 200 ft. center. My main bone of contention with him is he has never committed long term to this team. Marner was overpaid, and will be wanting even more on his next contract. Nylander is now overpaid as well, but at least he was willing to commit long term.

The only one that was overpaid is Nylander on his current contract. The only one that was given an uncommon term was Matthews on his current contract, though there is still precedent for contracts like that.

 

[Captain Crunch]

The whole idea of per 82 games is to show their production levels in an easily comparable way. There is no projection, and both samples were bigger than 82 games.
If you want raw points in the 3 years prior, Barzal had 164, and Marner has 281.

Who have they had for linemates in those 3 years?

 

[Captain Crunch]

Barzal returned to an 80 point level (which is still not close to Marner) this past season because he played more minutes, and picked up a bunch of points at 3v3 and 6v5. It didn't really have anything to do with Horvat or Trotz (who left 2 seasons ago). In fact, this was Barzal's worst year of his career producing at 5v5. Barzal's lack of production is on him, not anybody else. He's just not in the same tier offensively or defensively as somebody like Marner.

The only one that was overpaid is Nylander on his current contract. The only one that was given an uncommon term was Matthews on his current contract, though there is still precedent for contracts like that.

This is laughable! Compared to what they have not accomplished in the playoffs, they are all overpaid. And please don’t give me that lameass excuse about they’re only being paid for what they do in the regular season!

Shanahan and Dubas had the golden opportunity to make this team special with the players and assets they had at their disposal. Instead, they most likely will go down as one of the worst President/GM combos in Leafs’ history, based on the talent they had, the contracts they gave out, and how much playoff failure took place, as well as the position they are now in!

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

At least we can look forward to Shanahan getting fired this year and Marner walking and hopefully can put this decade of failure behind us after this year. Should've cut losses two years back. Incredibly predictable result last year as well as the upcoming one. We waited too long and now we're spinning tires. I really admire Florida being bold and trading their actual 100 point winger + a monster top 4 RD, and a 1st round pick to shake up a team that just won a presidents trophy. Meanwhile we're so pleased with our round 1 win 2 playoffs ago that we have dilusions of grandeur. I just want the team to be good. We're basically floating solidly above average and could possibly place 2nd instead of 3rd in our own division.

 

[The Shadow]

It’s unfortunate that they will lose Marner for nothing.

 

[Al14]

MSN

Is there any chatter on social media about the above trade proposal, or is this article simply 'click bait'?

 

[Peasy]

At least we can look forward to Shanahan getting fired this year and Marner walking and hopefully can put this decade of failure behind us after this year. Should've cut losses two years back. Incredibly predictable result last year as well as the upcoming one. We waited too long and now we're spinning tires. I really admire Florida being bold and trading their actual 100 point winger + a monster top 4 RD, and a 1st round pick to shake up a team that just won a presidents trophy. Meanwhile we're so pleased with our round 1 win 2 playoffs ago that we have dilusions of grandeur. I just want the team to be good. We're basically floating solidly above average and could possibly place 2nd instead of 3rd in our own division.

Florida management continuously saw Huberdeau and Weager choke and play much worse in high pressured situations and decided to cut bait early on and try and different mix because they didnt think they could get a win with those guys.

Meanwhile we been tryin for 8 years, see the same dudes choke at the same high pressured situations year after year and theres so many people that think it will somehow magically change.

Look at Yzerman! look at how long it took him to break through. You know why people still reference Yzerman with all that? Because hes the exception, not the norm, and people can never think of another example because it rarely happens.

Huberdeau had 21 points in 25 playoff games and that wasnt good enough for them (nearly similar ppg as Marner). Yet all i see is people constantly posting Marner's playoff stats and pretending hes amazing in the playoffs cause look at the ppg!

 

[All Mod Cons]

I would suggest you stop wasting your time. He will never admit that projecting a partial season into a full season is a projection, no matter how many times it is explained to him.

The best that can happen is that after cluttering up the boards with gibberish for a while and being proven wrong often enough, he will take a week or two off. Without, of course, admitting to having been wrong about anything.

I'm absolutely stunned people continue to converse with certain posters.

 

[Captain Crunch]

They did play 82 games. The samples were 196 and 221 games. No projections were used. No future situations were estimated or forecast.
How they produced over those ~200 games was just described in an easily comparable format. I even provided the P/GP as well.
If you'd like to represent it a different way, you can do that in your own posts.

At least we can look forward to Shanahan getting fired this year and Marner walking and hopefully can put this decade of failure behind us after this year. Should've cut losses two years back. Incredibly predictable result last year as well as the upcoming one. We waited too long and now we're spinning tires. I really admire Florida being bold and trading their actual 100 point winger + a monster top 4 RD, and a 1st round pick to shake up a team that just won a presidents trophy. Meanwhile we're so pleased with our round 1 win 2 playoffs ago that we have dilusions of grandeur. I just want the team to be good. We're basically floating solidly above average and could possibly place 2nd instead of 3rd in our own division.

Agreed, but this team at the present time is not a legitimate Cup contender. If we could get a solid 2C and have Tavares as our 3C, then I would feel a little more optimistic.

 

[aingefan]

Our left side, right now, is a little on the weak side. If McMann is playing on the 4th line, will that mean his minutes also go down, and therefore his points as well? He shouldn’t be any lower than 3rd line.

Hoping Robertson plays top 6 and finally has a breakout season, or at least one good enough that we can trade him for at least a 2nd round pick.

Well, the left side has Knies, Domi (though he may stay on AM’s right or slide to a C spot), Holmberg (maybe a C), Robertson, Grebenkin (right and left winger), Mann, Dewar (maybe a C), Cowan (seems to be a forward, rather than a set position), and even Steeves. Lots of options.
I line Mann down there if the 4th line is reinvented and given more rope.
Odds are that guys will mix and match most of the year, though I agree NickRob should get some burn even to boost his stock. I could see 30 goals pretty easy if he played with a slick passer.

 

[Captain Crunch]

It’s unfortunate that they will lose Marner for nothing.

True, but it’s much better than resigning him to at least $12 million. Shanahan has really left this team in a bad position.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

NJ doesnt even have holtz anymore lmao...

For that price the Leafs should have been in on him.

Rather Holtz than Robertson. Gives a pretty good idea of what Robertson is worth I guess. I think Holtz has more trade value and he just got traded for a chump and a middling pick.

If that's all Holtz got then Robertson gets you sweet eff all.