We could ask the question whether Yzerman really broke out, or if Fedorov and Lidstrom came of age where they became the horses and Yzerman was pulled along with them?
I'd like to see a similar transformation on the Leafs, for their "star" players, but who are their Fedorov and Lidstrom candidates?
The Yzerman one is interesting for those that want to believe there is still lots of time for Marner to change his narrative and his legacy. I remember the Yzerman era and I remember that he was considered a playoff disappointment before his Red Wings finally one a cup. He was considered a playoff choker and a guy who could not bring his game when it mattered.
Of course, he went on to captain a dynasty and to be considered one of the great all time leaders in the game. He was definitely considered a winner. I checked the playoff stats recently and saw that he scored at well above a ppg in this first several seasons. For a moment, I thought I misremembered things, maybe he wasn't considered a playoff "bust". He was scoring points and the team wasn't winning. I compared his stats to Marner's and saw that Marner was below a ppg in his playoff career.
...then I added context.
As we all know Stevie Y played in a higher scoring era, much higher. So, I adjusted for era:
In Yzerman's first ten NHL seasons (the time it took to reach
56 playoff games):
- Points per game, regular season: 1.54
- Points per game, playoffs: 1.18
- Playoff production drop: 23%
In Marner's first eight NHL seasons (the time to
57 playoff games):
- Points per game, regular season: 1.10
- Points per game, playoffs: 0.86
- Playoff production drop: 22%
...people can argue that Marner is getting just below a ppg in the playoffs and that's hard to do, so he is not exactly disappearing. He is however, delivering at well below his regular season levels. Yes, scoring drops in the playoffs, but not at the rate at which these two specific players saw a drop. In Marner's career, playoff scoring is about 5% lower than regular season and I am not sure what it was in Yzerman's early career days but we can assume it was not 23%. Both players delivered less in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.
More context?
Yzerman is referred to by many as "Captain Clutch" and his name is up there with Messier and Sakic as the greatest leaders of the era and perhaps all time. We already know that his scoring dropped in the playoffs, what about in the biggest games? Did he show up "clutch" then?
Yzerman in game 7's (in his first ten years)
That's a half a point per game and a negative +/-
Marner's game 7's
Worse, but neither player was good in those situations and one was the captain and team's best player.
The net of all of this? If you want to believe Marner can grow and develop and change his narrative and legacy, then Yzerman is a great precedent case study.
The Yzerman story is the case for patience, it wasn't until Yzerman's 14th season that he won his first cup.
I am in the "trade Marner" camp, but only in a deal that makes us better (return and cap space) and not one who thinks we dump him in a bad deal.
The other factor of course was that Yzerman played in the pre-cap era. Keeping him around did not come at the direct expense of adding to the roster around him and this is the case for moving Marner. There is an opportunity cost, if we pay MM too much we can't improve the team...there is a cap of course.
