Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Menzinger]

We should really extend Knies before playing him with Matthews/Marner

I'd be as aggressive as possible to get him locked in at 7-8 years.

The Leafs have a potential to get a fantastic valued contract. Once he asserts himself as a legit top six power forward his contract asks will increase dramatically, so going short term and cheap I think will backfire in the medium to long term

 

[LeafSteel]

I'd be as aggressive as possible to get him locked in at 7-8 years.

The Leafs have a potential to get a fantastic valued contract. Once he asserts himself as a legit top six power forward his contract asks will increase dramatically, so going short term and cheap I think will backfire in the medium to long term

It really would be nice to see management learn from past mistakes/failures.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Wild card here is Murray, who we shouldn’t be sleeping on.

If he is fully healed and healthy and can return to form, you have a Stanley Cup winning former starting goalie, who is only 30 years old, signed for $900k.

That is an asset that will have demand, and very quickly.

To me, Matt Murray represents a real wild card to our crease situation.

It’s nice to see.

I'm not so high on him...I mean before he got shut down, he was routinely letting in 4-5 goals a game.

I figured we waive him and he travels with the team as an e-bug and maybe you give him spot starts in the AHL to keep him fresh but he's a nice E-bug. I could totally be wrong though on that situation.

I would prefer to get Hildeby some starts if we run into injury problems in the NHL.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Would you lock up Knies for 8 years x $6.5M if the option was on the table right now?

 

[LeafSteel]

I'm not so high on him...I mean before he got shut down, he was routinely letting in 4-5 goals a game.

I figured we waive him and he travels with the team as an e-bug and maybe you give him spot starts in the AHL to keep him fresh but he's a nice E-bug. I could totally be wrong though on that situation.

I would prefer to get Hildeby some starts if we run into injury problems in the NHL.

I don’t think you can compare a goalie needing hip surgery to one who had hip surgery and has rested for a year.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Would you lock up Knies for 8 years x $6.5M if the option was on the table right now?

No.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes, he has, as anyone with access to stats can tell. Look at the data on his shot selection in the playoffs, simply becomes more of a peripheral player, which matches the eye test. And no, Game 1 is not the same as Game 7.

Every playoff game is worth the same, and have their own unique pressures. If Nylander did better in games 1-4, we wouldn't need games 5-7 in the first place. One cannot just pick out a minority of arbitrary games, and declare the scoring leader in those specific games to be the better player. Especially when the sample is meaningless. You can't claim game importance when you're excluding elimination games in favour of random game 5s, and you can't claim scoring difficulty when you're including game 5s and 6s that historically have no difference in scoring levels relative to earlier games.

With access to stats, we can tell that many of these claims are wrong. We can see that his shot selection is fine. We can see that some took a stat about Marner's shot distance increasing in the playoffs one year, and started making incorrect assumptions about him being a peripheral player. When it was actually just a result of two mundane things. A dump in from neutral ice counting and skewing the numbers, and two extra shots than average from the blueline, because we ran a set play against Vasilevsky's weakness. Those extra shots were goals, for the record. Just goes to show how poorly a stat can be interpreted, when you only make assumptions from the surface.

Similarly, the actual difference within elimination games remains negligible. Marner's underlying stats remain strong, and he contributes to the 2nd most goals and 2nd fewest goals against among our core 4. The production difference is a whole 3 points. Negligible to begin with, and even more-so when you realize that the difference is primarily just Marner picking up a bit less credit on the goals he contributed to in this particular sample, while playing better defensively in tougher matchups.

Marner has been the better player in both the regular season and playoffs, and there is really zero argument for his contract to be less than Nylander's.

 

[WTFMAN99]

No.

I'd probably do something like 5M x 6-8 years, it is in that Farabee range but a small bump up.

 

[Voodoo Child]

Okay how in the shit does Guenther get 8x7 while Mercer gets 3x4?

 

[Fogelhund]

Okay how in the shit does Guenther get 8x7 while Mercer gets 3x4?

Mercer bridged, betting that in three years, he can get paid much more with better play, and an increased cap.

Guenther is locked in for eight years... guaranteed money, gamble by Utah that he's going to continue to get better.

 

[Menzinger]

Would you lock up Knies for 8 years x $6.5M if the option was on the table right now?

I would, but I think they could get him for a bit less than that right now, even for 8 years

 

[Community]

I would, but I think they could get him for a bit less than that right now, even for 8 years

I think I'd be okay with up to 6x8yrs at this point. However, I wouldn't be suprised if they try to do a lower cap deal for 3-4 years... You have to imagine that most of Brad's moves will be based around how to get the most value out of team during Matthews current contract.

 

[Mikey Leaf]

I think I'd be okay with up to 6x8yrs at this point. However, I wouldn't be suprised if they try to do a lower cap deal for 3-4 years... You have to imagine that most of Brad's moves will be based around how to get the most value out of team during Matthews current contract.

Selfishly I hope he doesnt have a huge breakout season this year during the regulsr season. It would be nice to sign him at a bridge contract at a low number coming out of his ELC. Sort of like McKinnon in Colorado didnt have the production to earn high dollars on his second contract. Then after that I hope he has huge seasons!

 

[ACC1224]

I would, but I think they could get him for a bit less than that right now, even for 8 years

He and Matthews are pretty close. Will he advise him on how to max every dollar out of the team? Let’s hope not.

 

[Stephen]

Wild card here is Murray, who we shouldn’t be sleeping on.

If he is fully healed and healthy and can return to form, you have a Stanley Cup winning former starting goalie, who is only 30 years old, signed for $900k.

That is an asset that will have demand, and very quickly.

To me, Matt Murray represents a real wild card to our crease situation.

It’s nice to see.

Murray's cap hit to upside ratio is through the roof right now. I just hope he stays under the radar and doesn't become Boston's backup plan in case Swayman's contract doesn't get worked out.

 

[rumman]

Murray's cap hit to upside ratio is through the roof right now. I just hope he stays under the radar and doesn't become Boston's backup plan in case Swayman's contract doesn't get worked out.

I don’t think Murray would be available for Boston to claim on waivers, he’ll get snagged ip before that imo, but that sould be a classic Leafy scenario: wsive him and he turns into Boston’s vezna calibre goalie……..

 

[BertCorbeau]

Sucks that Ian Scott had those career derailing injuries .. he had some flashes up promise post-draft.

And salt in the wound is that Swayman was taken by the B's with the very next pick in that 4th round

 

[SprDaVE]

Wild card here is Murray, who we shouldn’t be sleeping on.

If he is fully healed and healthy and can return to form, you have a Stanley Cup winning former starting goalie, who is only 30 years old, signed for $900k.

That is an asset that will have demand, and very quickly.

To me, Matt Murray represents a real wild card to our crease situation.

It’s nice to see.

I really don't see much of a long-term solution with Murray. He's probably more of a capable back-up with his injury history and wild inconsistent play. I can see a Hutchinson level goaltender where he bounces around and provides capable depth to teams in need.

It's a very optimistic view to see Murray as someone that can become any sort of solution as a regular NHL goaltender.

 

[LeafSteel]

I really don't see much of a long-term solution with Murray. He's probably more of a capable back-up with his injury history and wild inconsistent play. I can see a Hutchinson level goaltender where he bounces around and provides capable depth to teams in need.

It's a very optimistic view to see Murray as someone that can become any sort of solution as a regular NHL goaltender.

Not what I was implying.

I was saying he would have market value to another team as a backup.

Case in point is Boston. If Swayman holds strong and signs for $9m, are they really going to want to need Korpisalo as a $4m backup, with $13m in their goalie tandem?

Would make so much more sense for them to take Murray for $900k as their backup and extract value for Korpisalo.

See if we can add to have Frederic as part of the trade discussion and Murray is now bringing the most value to the Leafs since he’s been here.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not what I was implying.

I was saying he would have market value to another team as a backup.

Case in point is Boston. If Swayman holds strong and signs for $9m, are they really going to want to need Korpisalo as a $4m backup, with $13m in their goalie tandem?

Would make so much more sense for them to take Murray for $900k as their backup and extract value for Korpisalo.

See if we can add to have Frederic as part of the trade discussion and Murray is now bringing the most value to the Leafs since he’s been here.

I mean maybe but Korpisalo has zero to negative value so they won't get any value there. Murray won't help them much other than being cheaper and his value isn't really all that good. He's a reclamation project.

 

[rumman]

I really don't see much of a long-term solution with Murray. He's probably more of a capable back-up with his injury history and wild inconsistent play. I can see a Hutchinson level goaltender where he bounces around and provides capable depth to teams in need.

It's a very optimistic view to see Murray as someone that can become any sort of solution as a regular NHL goaltender.

So a often injured Stanley Cup winning goalie isn’t thought of as more than a capable backup goalie when your presumed number one hasn’t played anything close to a full season, hasn’t won shit and is just as if not more injury prone than Murray and your presumed number two is just as green as your number 1. Is that what you’re trying to say? Funny what a little perspective adds to the conversation, the G, just like the D could have real issues this season if injuries arise………

I mean maybe but Korpisalo has zero to negative value so they won't get any value there. Murray won't help them much other than being cheaper and his value isn't really all that good. He's a reclamation project.

Our whole goalie situation is a reclamation project except the Hildabeast……..

 

[SprDaVE]

So a often injured Stanley Cup winning goalie isn’t thought of as more than a capable backup goalie when your presumed number one hasn’t played anything close to a full season, hasn’t won shit and is just as if not more injury prone than Murray and your presumed number two is just as green as your number 1. Is that what you’re trying to say? Funny what a little perspective adds to the conversation, the G, just like the D could have real issues this season if injuries arise………


Our whole goalie situation is a reclamation project except the Hildabeast……..

yes

 

[Stephen]

I'd be as aggressive as possible to get him locked in at 7-8 years.

The Leafs have a potential to get a fantastic valued contract. Once he asserts himself as a legit top six power forward his contract asks will increase dramatically, so going short term and cheap I think will backfire in the medium to long term

We would probably have to give Knies the Dylan Guenther deal...

Utah Hockey Club signs forward Dylan Guenther to eight-year extension | TSN

The Utah Hockey Club has locked up Dylan Guenther for the long term. The team announced an eight-year extension for the winger on Friday.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Stephen]

I really don't see much of a long-term solution with Murray. He's probably more of a capable back-up with his injury history and wild inconsistent play. I can see a Hutchinson level goaltender where he bounces around and provides capable depth to teams in need.

It's a very optimistic view to see Murray as someone that can become any sort of solution as a regular NHL goaltender.

I don't think Murray is a Hutchinson (low quality goalie). He's going to have very high ceiling play and look like an absolute fortress, and he's going to get banged up, and look awful and or just not be available for stretches. High upside and basically not reliable/available. That's been the whole pattern with his career... he's also not really that old. He's only 4 years older than Joseph Woll.

 

[Stephen]

Our whole goalie situation is a reclamation project except the Hildabeast……..

All of Woll, Stolarz and Murray have some unique upside value proposition, but I do suspect Hildeby is the goalie who is worth nurturing and eventually emerge as the long term solution.