GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[Magic Man]

Stolarz is my top FA choice in net. He has room to grow into a guy who see's more ice time and he is at least a .920 backup over 30 games.

 

[thusk]

It depends on what you mean by risk.

It was a good signing from a financial/term perspective. A gamble without risk here.

It was however also a gamble that he'd be able to regain to form and be able to carry the D's puck moving needs. A very big gamble here considering he hadn't been capable of handling that task for a couple seasons at that point and there was no plan B on the team if he flopped.

Risk i was more talking about gamble so it's pretty similar to what i said but what should be plan B considerating the D market last off-season.

2- His offrnsive game never really been an issue for Klinberg. He had defensive issues for sure but outside of Anaheim so i'm not agree in the part he didn't handle that part for a couple seasons. he was in pace for 50 pts / 82 games in any of his season except in last season and 2020 when he reached the stanley cup final

 

[Tony Romo]

Lily + Jankrok for Colton

a package of Robertson/Minten/23rd for McGroarty

profit!

 

[ULF_55]

There's a reason why nobody wants to play for them and it's not just the weather

Did you see those numbers? He's doing that against men as a 20 year old, that's 20 points more than Knies when he came out and he scored 35 points for us this regular season

I'm more than willing to profit off Winnipeg and there problems

Fun Facts - Team Average Age

Fun Facts - Team Average Age

www.collegehockeynews.com

At the right price

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10114934-ranking-the-top-10-nhl-prospects-that-played-college-hockey-during-the-2023-24-season

National 2022-23 Scoring Leaders - College Hockey, Inc.

Your NCAA Hockey Resource

collegehockeyinc.com

 

[LeafParade]

Rutger McGroarty

April 2024 - McGroarty will return to the University of Michigan for his junior year for the 2024-25 season. Mark Henry April 2024 - McGroarty’s 2023-24 season ended on Thursday, April 11, after the Michigan Wolverines lost to the top-ranked Boston College 4-0 in one of the semi-finals of the...

dobberprospects.com

A highly skilled, competitive, versatile forward who can play on the wing and center. Lacks high-end speed and needs to improve his overall skating. He has the size, strength, and leadership qualities to go along with the scoring ability and hockey IQ to develop into a reliable two-way top-six multi-category fantasy option that will contribute to both the powerplay and penalty kill.

In keeping with other NCAA players threatening to go to free agency, 23rd. overall, and Cade Webber/prospect not listed above, is a good return

Wait, can he actually play C?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Spot on. We can't fix all our problem this off season, but you can make a big dent to it. Why spend asset or cap space on a goalie like Saros, when we could sign Stolarz or Brossoit for half of Saros cap space.

I rather we spend most of the cap space fixing the d corp, so that once the playoff comes Stolarz/Brossoit/Woll are insulated by a strong d corps.

If Woll turns out not to be our goalie, you can fix it next off season with Tavares off the books and Saros, Hill, Shersterkin, Ullmark as free agent. It's better to wait next off season to finally address the goalie issue.

This where I’m at as well

 

[thusk]

Because goaltending hasn't been the reason we've struggled to advance

We score 2 goals a game, no wonder we can't win anything
We need forward depth (which is improving) and puck movers on the backend (which cost money)

There's better things to spend our money on

i think if you fix puck mover in the backend with a d able to join the rush and be involve in the offensive, you will fix at the same time deoht scoring from 3rd and 4th line.

 

[Menzinger]

So their evaluation doesn't paint a great picture of their opinion on his abilities to play in the NHL this year.

Very well could be! Though I don't know enough about the particulars of his development and the relationship with the team to say things either way.

 

[Tony Romo]

Cowan - Tavares - Mcroarty 3rd line would be fun. Gives you a lot of flexibility knowing 3 of your top 9 wingers would be ELCs

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Should tell Rutger he has a path to play with his countrymen

Knies-Matthews-Rutger
Cowan-Minten-Nylander

Is a solid young core.

 

[-DeMo-]

Using @AFPAnalytics as a reference for contracts. Here's an avenue of acquiring 2 top 4 D (Roy and Demelo), Goaltending (Stolarz) and 3C (Duchene - or put him on the wing and use Holmberg). Would require trading Jarnkrok and waiving Timmins/Reaves.

View attachment 885036

couple of days late but the problem with this is if you have a league min goalie instead of signing Stolarz, which was the whole point of my post you do not need to move Jarnkrok at all. plus Duchene is not a 3c with 65 points last season. I would waive both Timmins and Reaves anyway.

 

[Brobust]

Lily + Jankrok for Colton

a package of Robertson/Minten/23rd for McGroarty

profit!

Cutter Gauthier got moved for a busted up Drysdale. I don't see the need to make that kind of offer.

One of Minten or the 1st should be enough.

 

[Tony Romo]

Cutter Gauthier got moved for a busted up Drysdale. I don't see the need to make that kind of offer.

One of Minten or the 1st should be enough.

sorry, should've phrased it better. Didn't mean Minten + Robertson + 1st, just any of the 3

 

[JEI]

couple of days late but the problem with this is if you have a league min goalie instead of signing Stolarz, which was the whole point of my post you do not need to move Jarnkrok at all. plus Duchene is not a 3c with 65 points last season. I would waive both Timmins and Reaves anyway.

Stolarz is signed in my example. You don't like Duchene for 4.5m (I don't think he's coming here anyways) use it on someone else for 3rd line C.

My point is you can fill most of the holes on the roster with the cap space they have. They can do more if they are creative. Unless the deals go way over what people are speculating.

 

[JEI]

I was using Brossoit and almost the same amount for Lindholm and Skjei.
Re-signed Liljegren.
Couldn't get under the Cap with a NHL defense.
Also didn't assume magic trades for Cap compliance.

Circled are issues ... I'd take Stolarz at your 2.5, but I'm guessing that won't happen. I think Goalies are going to be overpaid at the bottom level.
Going at 2.5 would put the following Cap Compliant, and with a little wiggling on Lindholm could get a prospect into the line-up.
Of course the magic disappearance of Kampf would help.

View attachment 885667

Seems high for Brossoit. Most are speculating he's around 3m. Stolarz shouldn't be getting more than 3m. Alex Nedeljkovic just signed for 2.5m so I think there's at least a comparable there. If he wants more than 3m, I'd be looking at Lankinen or Talbot. They are looking for Woll to be the starter in any regard if he can stay healthy. I think if he can't they'll be looking elsewhere (maybe Hildeby) for next season anyways as Woll's contract will be up.

I think Liligren is going to get more too which is why I could see him dealt. He has arbitration I believe, which is the avenue it will likely go down.

 

[thusk]

I was using Brossoit and almost the same amount for Lindholm and Skjei.
Re-signed Liljegren.
Couldn't get under the Cap with a NHL defense.
Also didn't assume magic trades for Cap compliance.

Circled are issues ... I'd take Stolarz at your 2.5, but I'm guessing that won't happen. I think Goalies are going to be overpaid at the bottom level.
Going at 2.5 would put the following Cap Compliant, and with a little wiggling on Lindholm could get a prospect into the line-up.
Of course the magic disappearance of Kampf would help.

View attachment 885667

Brossoit is a 31 y/o carreer backup goalie who never played more than 24 game in a regular season. Do you really think a team will be so much desesperate to give him 4,2M!?!?!?!?!?!

 

[belair]

Stolarz is my top FA choice in net. He has room to grow into a guy who see's more ice time and he is at least a .920 backup over 30 games.

Can you guys trust Woll to carry the 50+ game workload though? You'd be carrying two goalies who both haven't started more than 30 games in a single season.

IMO Toronto should be looking hard at what Waddell is willing to add to Elvis Merzlikins if he truly is that down on the guy's contract. If he was willing to throw in Boqvist and take back a contract like Reaves', you could be filling that split starter role and add a PP puck-moving RD for a net $6.7m.

Merzlikins isn't a true elite starter. But behind a reliable D, I think he's better than Stolarz and he's shown in the past that he can play a lot of games.

 

[TMLife17]

Merzlikins isn't a true elite starter. But behind a reliable D, I think he's better than Stolarz and he's shown in the past that he can play a lot of games.

Do you see one of those here?

 

[belair]

Do you see one of those here?

If you spent some of that cap on a defensively sound right shot D, I don't think Toronto's looking bad.

Defending wasn't as big of an issue in Boston as say, transition. Their powerplay was a big issue, too.

 

[Kurtz]

The argument would be that skaters are generally more consistent than goalies and safer long-term bets.

Also comparing a top 5-10 goalie to a top 5-10 dman doesn’t seem very logical. The 10th best goalie is closer to an average starter than the best starter, while the 10th best dman is definitely elite. Taking the thought experiment further, a top 30 goalie is one of the worst starters in the league while a top 30 dman is a top pair guy.

Yeah, I was being a bit conservative on Saros there, I think he's a lot closer to top 5 than 10. I do think a top-5 goalie makes as much or more impact than a top 5 dman, though, generally. Ie I'd take Shesterkin over Fox any day of the week. I agree that skaters are more consistent bets, but I wonder if risk aversion and variance reduction is a top priority. A top goalie can win you a series by himself...I can't quite say that about a top dman.

But let me phrase my point in a less contentious way: I don't think there's a UFA dman on the market who is equal in impact to Saros. I think the improvement we'd see for example in getting Saros over Stolarz/Broissot at an extra $2.5m is larger than we'd see by spending that difference on a Pesce vs a Demelo.

 

[JEI]

Can you guys trust Woll to carry the 50+ game workload though? You'd be carrying two goalies who both haven't started more than 30 games in a single season.

IMO Toronto should be looking hard at what Waddell is willing to add to Elvis Merzlikins if he truly is that down on the guy's contract. If he was willing to throw in Boqvist and take back a contract like Reaves', you could be filling that split starter role and add a PP puck-moving RD for a net $6.7m.

Merzlikins isn't a true elite starter. But behind a reliable D, I think he's better than Stolarz and he's shown in the past that he can play a lot of games.

Waddle came out recently and pissed all over Merzlikins contract.. publicly. Merzlikins doesn't have to come with a player sweetner, the sweetner for the Leafs would be a 50% retention. If Woll finds his game, he's going to get paid and then the Leafs would have Merlikins + whatever Woll's new contract ends up being. Merzlikins is in the same boat as the guys they are looking to sign right now in free agency.

 

[the real Fox mulder]

If Marner agrees to waive, would trading him for picks and prospects be really a bad idea? We could trade for picks and prospects, then use some of those acquire assets to trade for a 50% retain Buchnevich.

We'll have an extra $8M to sign a dman, also we'll still have $18.8M to spend.

It would look like this
Marner for 50% retain Buchnevich + extra picks from Marner trade + dman sign on free agency.

I think this is the type of move Tre has to make, but Marner has to agree to waive.

 

[belair]

Waddle came out recently and pissed all over Merzlikins contract.. publicly. Merzlikins doesn't have to come with a player sweetner, the sweetner for the Leafs would be a 50% retention. If Woll finds his game, he's going to get paid and then the Leafs would have Merlikins + whatever Woll's new contract ends up being. Merzlikins is in the same boat as the guys they are looking to sign right now in free agency.

If Woll finds his game playing under 40 games, like he should, the earning potential on that second contract is fairly low. Look at the league comparables. $3m - $4m on a two or three year term. Having less than $9m tied up in a tandem is league average, I'd say.

If the Leafs are looking at the shortfalls they had in the Bruins series, I think that Boqvist could be a sneaky good add with a lot of upside potential. And Merzlikins is looking for a place where he can get the opportunity to carry the torch. I think those would be two players who'd be very happy to be in Toronto.

 

[Stephen]

Oh lord, now I’m worried what moves Tre is going to make this offseason…

Not sure what Toronto’s equivalent to Bahl would have been. But a first and a complimentary prospect who can start playing isn’t that expensive for a guy like Markstrom. Not saying Markstrom is everyone’s flavour.

The closest guy to a Markstrom in terms of age and maybe up and down seasons is probably Gibson. But maybe it’s someone like Saros if Nashville wants to start their Askarov years.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Cutter Gauthier got moved for a busted up Drysdale. I don't see the need to make that kind of offer.

One of Minten or the 1st should be enough.

It won’t be. Gauthier had a reputation as a problem kid with an attitude. McGroarty has the reputation of a future captain that plays the hard physical game that every GM wants in a player.

Our realistic offers would be 23rd + Minten + Liljegren or something like Cowan straight up. Jets needs are centres and RHD so maybe the first package gets it done if they like those players.