Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[IrishInOntario]

I'll repeat what I said last week. There is no way I'm trading the 1st round pick, or any of Toronto's top prospects, unless it's returning an impact player that has both term remaining on his contract (or indicates that he'll re-sign) and fits the prime age range of the other top-tier players on Toronto's roster. I'm tired of giving up 1st and 2nd round picks for rentals, in years in which it's clear that there are a number of better teams out there, that are actually making impact moves to widen that gap further.

That means no 33-34 year olds, 1-2 years from being completely washed (ala Foligno) and nobody expiring that doesn't want to stay in Toronto (ala O'Reilly). Asset management, especially high Draft Picks, need to be preserved because it's increasingly evident that when it comes to the most coveted impact players available Toronto offers none of the following:

1. A provincial / state tax advanatge
2. Year round warm weather
3. Refuge from constant media scrutiny
4. A culture of winning
5. A destination for American born players, such as New York or California
6. A destination for top free agents

Because of that, Toronto is largely forced into building and developing through the draft, and in order to do that, they need to make picks at the top of the Draft, not waste them on expiring players that they can't re-sign for a litany of reasons.

 

[DarkKnight]

It will be nice when the trade deadline passes and I don't have to hear "move the needle" anymore. Lots to unpack here, thanks for doing the heavy lifting.

 

[ER89]

People don't seem to care about what's on record anymore. People claiming that O'Rielly disliked the room... People claiming that Foligno's injury happened prior to the trade... People claiming that our adds weren't some of the biggest adds of the deadlines, and that they weren't loved by our fanbase... Revisionist history everywhere.

Foligno s did though...

 

[IrishInOntario]

People don't seem to care about what's on record anymore. People claiming that O'Rielly disliked the room... People claiming that Foligno's injury happened prior to the trade... People claiming that our adds weren't some of the biggest adds of the deadlines, and that they weren't loved by our fanbase... Revisionist history everywhere.

I absolutely hated the Foligno add and bitched about it relentlessly in this very forum, both when it was rumored to happen and after it happened. That was the definition of chasing a washed up player.

 

[Gilmour1996]

I'll repeat what I said last week. There is no way I'm trading the 1st round pick, or any of Toronto's top prospects, unless it's returning an impact player that has both term remaining on his contract (or indicates that he'll re-sign) and fits the prime age range of the other top-tier players on Toronto's roster. I'm tired of giving up 1st and 2nd round picks for rentals, in years in which it's clear that there are a number of better teams out there, that are actually making impact moves to widen that gap further.

That means no 33-34 year olds, 1-2 years from being completely washed (ala Foligno) and nobody expiring that doesn't want to stay in Toronto (ala O'Reilly). Asset management, especially high Draft Picks, need to be preserved because it's increasingly evident that when it comes to the most coveted impact players available Toronto offers none of the following:

1. A provincial / state tax advanatge
2. Year round warm weather
3. Refuge from constant media scrutiny
4. A culture of winning
5. A destination for American born players, such as New York or California
6. A destination for top free agents

Because of that, Toronto is largely forced into building and developing through the draft, and in order to do that, they need to make picks at the top of the Draft, not waste them on expiring players that they can't re-sign for a litany of reasons.

Here's some reasons why they might:

1. Top free agents make enough money to live comfortably, despite taxes, plus the Leafs overpay.
2. Seasons.
3. Hockey mecca. Just look at how many postings Leafs board generates and merchandising sales.
4. A team that does well in the regular season, which influences their next payday. Despite Gary favouring USA teams.
5. No wacky USA politics, including Donald Trump. More liberal policies compared to USA.
6. Who wants to live in USA unless you were born there (even then...)?
7. Demographic differences and attitudes may favour Canada. Go live in USA to see what I mean.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

It’ll prolly be
Pacioretty (75%) + Jensen
For
1st + Jarnkrok + Hirvonen (5th to another team)

 

[Dekes For Days]

Foligno s did though...

Except it didn't. It happened on May 3rd, after the trade, after Foligno had played really well and gone PPG through his early time with us. We all saw it happen in real time. We all saw it happen on the behind the scenes documentary (just as we saw other teams willing to offer 1sts). We all heard Foligno talk about it, in detail. When it happened, and how it was debilitating, unexpected, and something he had never experienced in his life.

And yet we still have comments like yours, claiming the opposite. You're proving my point.

I absolutely hated the Foligno add and bitched about it relentlessly in this very forum, both when it was rumored to happen and after it happened. That was the definition of chasing a washed up player.

If you hated it then, good for you. It wouldn't have been my first choice at that cost, but it was a good fit, he was playing well with us before his injury, it was one of the biggest pieces available that deadline (during a year that we should be adding), it was a price that multiple teams were willing to pay, and somebody most of this fanbase loved at the time.

It's weird to see people praising teams like Vegas for being willing to make big moves at the deadline, while they turn around and bash their own team for doing the same thing.

 

[DarkKnight]

Foligno s did though...

Columbus reporters were saying he was still not 100 percent literally before the trade. Revisionism is right.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Columbus reporters were saying he was still not 100 percent literally before the trade. Revisionism is right.

Columbus reporters were talking about potential minor day-to-day bumps and bruises that had nothing to do with his eventual injury, and the usual precautions being taken for a big trade target right before the deadline. He then had an extra two weeks in quarantine to rest, was fully healthy when he started playing for us, and did well until his injury. That Foligno himself explicitly confirmed didn't happen until he was here, and was something he had never experienced. Revisionism is indeed right.

 

[DarkKnight]

Columbus reporters were talking about potential minor day-to-day bumps and bruises that had nothing to do with his eventual injury, and the usual precautions being taken for a big trade target right before the deadline. He then had an extra two weeks in quarantine to rest, was fully healthy when he started playing for us, and did well until his injury. Revisionism is indeed right.

He was out of the lineup injured, prior to the trade. I can’t argue your delusions anymore, believe what you want, what does it really matter.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He was out of the lineup dude, prior to the trade.

For the one game prior to the deadline, just like many players set to be traded for big amounts at the deadline are to protect the asset.
It's amazing how some people think they know better than the literal player it happened to. It's even one of the rare instances we have actual behind the scenes footage too. Wild.

 

[hamzarocks]

I got a fake notification on my phone/google showing Larsson to leafs Robertson and pick to Seattle

Got excited and came here. The load time was like 10 seconds so thought the trade actually went through only for it to be a false alarm

Disapointing morning

 

[tmlfan98]

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[rumman]

Dubas is going to get schooled again in negotiations, this time not by a player, but by another GM, who else is making popcorn to watch this trainwreck happen…….

 

[4thline]

It will be nice when the trade deadline passes and I don't have to hear "move the needle" anymore. Lots to unpack here, thanks for doing the heavy lifting.

"Sweetener"
"Quality>Quantity"

 

[dubplatepressure]

Which era are you talking about specifically when you say "before him".

2001 Draft:
Carlo Colaiacovo (#17)
Brendan Bell (#65)
Jay Harrison (#82)
Kyle Wellwood (134)

2002 Draft:
Alex Steen (#24)
Matt Stajan (#57)
Ian White (#191)

2005 Draft:
Tuuka Rask (#21)
Anton Stralman (#216)

2006 Draft:
Jiri Tlusty (#13)
Nikoli Kulemin (#44)
James Reimer (#99)
Korbinen Holzer (#111)
Viktor Stalberg (#161)
Leo Komorov (#180)


Did Dubas have a draft that stacks up to any of above ones mentioned? Interesting enough is this was the period of time when the Leafs were transitioning from being a contender (all in) to missing the playoffs consistently, I used this time frame as you can see that this wasn't when Leafs were drafting top 5 or top 10.

If you look at the Leafs drafting record prior to Dubas being the GM, they consistently drafted a couple of NHL regulars each draft but the organization never seemed to have a reputation of being good at the draft table. Funny that Dubas received that label even though the drafting was subpar during this tenure as the Leafs GM and doesn't stack up what the organization was able to accomplish pre Dubas.

Just went back and reviewed all drafts from 1990 forward... looks like Dubas's 35 picks ranks around 2nd out of 10 in my list, behind only Nonis. Some of Dubas/Hunter's best picks were (IMO) Minten, Grebenkin, Knies, Neimela, Sandin, Durzi, and Holmberg. However, he only seemed to do reasonably well in the top-90 - he rarely hit on anything (other than Holmberg) after the 3rd round. Suppose you could say players like Hollowell, Villeneuve, Kral, Tverberg, but so far they haven't seen much NHL action. So far under 30% of Dubas' picks have seen an NHL game, but it's still very early for guys drafted in 2020+.

Nonis has a much smaller sample size at 11 picks across the 2013 and 2014 drafts, but drafted Nylander in the 1st round of 2014, missed on Gauthier in 2013, but drafted Dakota Joshua in the 5th and Engvall in the 7th of 2014 and Verhaughe in the 3rd and Johnsson in the 7th of 2013. Pretty freaking good other than the whiff on Gauthier. 73% of Nonis picks played at least 1 NHL game.

The 2001 and 2002 drafts were both Quinn drafts - Quinn hit on Johny Hockey in the 5th of '03, Steen and Stajan in the top-60 of '02 plus Ian White in the 6th, Carlo in the 1st and Wellwood in the 5th of 2001, and Brad Boyes in the 1st of '00. 49% of his picks played at least an NHL game.

Cliff Fletcher doesn't seem to have had much luck at the draft - seems to be the worst of all GMs in this period. 71 picks the best of which are Kaberle in the 8th, Markov in teh 9th, Modin in the 3rd, Berezin in the 10th, Borchevsky in the 4th, Perrault in the 3rd, and Mironov in the 8th. 1st rounders Johnsson panned out well, but Schenn, Convery, Marshall, Landon Wilson, Fichaud, and Jeff Ware were underwhelming. 38% of Fletcher's picks saw NHL games.

Just before Dubas was uncle Lou, who drafted Lilly, AM34, and Marner. Gifts. Other than that, he mostly missed on his picks, and especially those in latter rounds.

 

[Advanced stats]

The big trade on the table going into the deadline seems to be using their 1st rd. pick to land either David Savard or Nick Jensen with 50% percent retention to play with Rielly.

Rielly - Savard/Jensen
Brodie - Liljegren
McCabe - Lyubushkin
ex. Benoit - Giordano

In terms of time on ice and role they compare well with someone like Tanev. This move would bring one of them in with some term. A 1st for Savard/Jensen with some term at a good number is better than trading it for Tanev and then having to renegotiate for next season at higher cap hit with next years cap squeeze.

They are both 33 years old for this run. They will turn 34 to start next season. Jensen would have a 3rd year at age 35, but his contract would reduce to 1M owed after his final signing bonus making him very easy to unload in his final season if need be.

Are Jensen/savard really an upgrade on Liljegren or Benoit?

I would hate that from Treliving

Better to try and pay up for Chychryn or Parayko.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Sometimes it feels like Edmundson, Matheson and Savard are the same person.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Except it didn't. It happened on May 3rd, after the trade, after Foligno had played really well and gone PPG through his early time with us. We all saw it happen in real time. We all saw it happen on the behind the scenes documentary (just as we saw other teams willing to offer 1sts). We all heard Foligno talk about it, in detail. When it happened, and how it was debilitating, unexpected, and something he had never experienced in his life.

And yet we still have comments like yours, claiming the opposite. You're proving my point.

If you hated it then, good for you. It wouldn't have been my first choice at that cost, but it was a good fit, he was playing well with us before his injury, it was one of the biggest pieces available that deadline (during a year that we should be adding), it was a price that multiple teams were willing to pay, and somebody most of this fanbase loved at the time.

It's weird to see people praising teams like Vegas for being willing to make big moves at the deadline, while they turn around and bash their own team for doing the same thing.

Getting 27 year old Noah Hanifin, who has indicated that he'll re-sign in Vegas, for a couple draft picks with conditions that would allow Vegas to add more at the deadline, is in another realm than trading multiple draft picks for guys approaching their mid 30s, on expiring contracts.

Vegas ought to be praised for the Hanifin trade. It's reminiscent of Tampa Bay trading for then 28 year Ryan McDonagh, who had another year left on his contract when the Lightning got him. Those are the types of moves worth moving a pile of assets for. Legitimately, fantastic trades.

 

[Torontonian]

What about Ryan Johansen at 50%?

Probably suit the Flyers to get rid of him, they retain 50% so he only costs us a couple of Mill and he could play as our 3C

There was some theory's and rumors about Johansen becoming a locker room cancer and the Colorado Core not wanting him on the team anymore so they moved him.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Are Jensen/savard really an upgrade on Liljegren or Benoit?

I would hate that from Treliving

Better to try and pay up for Chychryn or Parayko.

Exactly. Stop lighting assets on fire for marginal upgrades that can be obtained via free agency in the off season to round out the roster. Move real assets for players in their prime years, with term, or keep drafting a build up a talent pool in your development system.

 

[DarkKnight]

"Sweetener"
"Quality>Quantity"

Touché lol

 

[Torontonian]

It’ll prolly be
Pacioretty (75%) + Jensen
For
1st + Jarnkrok + Hirvonen (5th to another team)

Swap Jrankrok with Kampf, Keefe loves Jrankrok just like how he loved Kerfoot, can't see him being moved.

 

[BertCorbeau]

FWIW it takes years to really gauge a draft. We can only really start to judge Dubas’ 18/19 draft right now.

‘18 has two mid pairing d-men in Sandin and Durzi, as well as Holmberg who is looking like he will carve out an NHL career

‘19 has Robertson … Abruzzese and Kokkonen are outside shots at an NHL career

We should have a better handle on the 2020 draft next season. Niemela and Tverberg are looking like the most promising out of the group.

2021 only had 3 picks and one was Knies.. that’s already looking like a successful draft

2022 is trending extremely well with Minten having a strong D+2 year, Grebyonkin having great back to back KHL seasons, and Hildeby having a great season with the Marlies