Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Fogelhund]

They are now, but I would bet on that changing in R1. Even if the Leafs don't add a C I can't see Keefe going with Domi at C on the road, and he certainly won't continue to run Bertuzzi - Domi - Nylander who have been outscored and outchanced together.

Actually, they haven't been outscored...

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Toronto - Carlson (@7M)
Washington - Mikhayev + Laegesson + Minten + 1st (tor)
Vancouver - Brodie

McCabe-Carlson
Rielly-Lybushkin
Benoit-Liljgren

 

[Scion]

Actually, they haven't been outscored...

You are right, they are +1 together (7 GF, 6GA). Let's look at their underlying numbers:

5.43 xGA (3.09 xGF)
36.29 xGF%
23 HDCA (12 HDCF)
44.50 CF%
42.36 FF%
65.38 OZ%

Now here are Nylander and Bertuzzi's numbers without Domi:

18 GF (12 GA)
22.42 xGF (15.41 xGA)
59.26 xGF%
108 HDCF (67 HDCA)
54.68 CF%
55.50 FF%
54.44 OZ%

 

[Americanadian]

Wing

Where?

 

[jaric1862]

I was high on Jensen at 2.5m before his move to Washington. Now he's more of what we already have and I don't believe he's the guy for Rielly. There are options in the UFA market for similar price point that won't cost us assets.

100% agree on this. He's a Brodie/Liljergren type and we need another McCabe/Benoit/Lyubushkin type.

 

[Roo]

At this point, it am convinced that ‘impact’ rentals just don’t work. At least not for us. I’m fully content adding depth only (particularly if they add toughness) at the deadline. I’d look to the offseason to make bigger moves, and I think the leafs will be smart about it.

 

[nuck]

You are right, they are +1 together (7 GF, 6GA). Let's look at their underlying numbers:

5.43 xGA (3.09 xGF)
36.29 xGF%
23 HDCA (12 HDCF)
44.50 CF%
42.36 FF%
65.38 OZ%

Now here are Nylander and Bertuzzi's numbers without Domi:

18 GF (12 GA)
22.42 xGF (15.41 xGA)
59.26 xGF%
108 HDCF (67 HDCA)
54.68 CF%
55.50 FF%
54.44 OZ%

Is the bottom with Tavares or Matthews or both?

 

[MarMarSab3]

Knies Matthews Marner
Bertuzzi Domi Nylander
McMann Tavares Jarnkrok
Holmberg Kampf Reaves

I'm pleased enough with the forward group, Tavares is where he belongs which is on the 3rd line playing with speedy wingers that will make up for his speed and defensive flaws. Would an upgrade at 2C be beneficial?absolutely however none out there available that are better then Domi. The clear necessary upgrade is still a top 4 RD .

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Larsson
Borgen
Tanev

To Seattle-
Robertson
Liljegren
Jarnkrok
Brodie
Niemela
1st Round Pick

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander
Mcmann-Tavares-Tanev
Holmberg-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Larsson
McCabe-Borgen
Benoit-Lyubushkin

 

[Scion]

Is the bottom with Tavares or Matthews or both?

That is every line they have played together that didn't include Domi. I don't know the exact breakdown, but a majority of those minutes were with Tavares.

Where?

Now you are deliberately being obtuse.

 

[Scion]

100% agree on this. He's a Brodie/Liljergren type and we need another McCabe/Benoit/Lyubushkin type.

Jensen is solid, but I don't know how much he moves the needle. Given the assets and cap it will cost the Leafs should look at better options or just wait till July to sign one of the many better options available.

 

[LeafChief]

To Toronto-
Larsson
Borgen
Tanev

To Seattle-
Robertson
Liljegren
Jarnkrok
Brodie
Niemela
1st Round Pick

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander
Mcmann-Tavares-Tanev
Holmberg-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Larsson
McCabe-Borgen
Benoit-Lyubushkin

The fact that you continue to post trade proposals is both shocking and admirable.

 

[Fogelhund]

You are right, they are +1 together (7 GF, 6GA). Let's look at their underlying numbers:

5.43 xGA (3.09 xGF)
36.29 xGF%
23 HDCA (12 HDCF)
44.50 CF%
42.36 FF%
65.38 OZ%

Now here are Nylander and Bertuzzi's numbers without Domi:

18 GF (12 GA)
22.42 xGF (15.41 xGA)
59.26 xGF%
108 HDCF (67 HDCA)
54.68 CF%
55.50 FF%
54.44 OZ%

Money Puck has it at 7GF 5A... I'm not sure why the variance.

When you look at the stats... Bertuzzi Tavares and Nylander look quite good.
McMann Tavares Jarnkrok is a very small sample, but also good.
Robertson Domi Jarnkrok were also good..

But the thing is... we've been winning with these lines, no matter what the stats say.. but there is options...

To Toronto-
Larsson
Borgen
Tanev

To Seattle-
Robertson
Liljegren
Jarnkrok
Brodie
Niemela
1st Round Pick

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Bertuzzi-Domi-Nylander
Mcmann-Tavares-Tanev
Holmberg-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Larsson
McCabe-Borgen
Benoit-Lyubushkin

It's amazing that you just continue to want to give away everything, particularly the potential ELC guys... when we need them for cap reasons. These are just crazy proposals.

 

[Scion]

Money Puck has it at 7GF 5A... I'm not sure why the variance.

When you look at the stats... Bertuzzi Tavares and Nylander look quite good.
McMann Tavares Jarnkrok is a very small sample, but also good.
Robertson Domi Jarnkrok were also good..

But the thing is... we've been winning with these lines, no matter what the stats say.. but there is options...

We've been winning in spite of them not because of them. Last night they were the worst line by a country mile, and it's been that way for most of the past two weeks. Unfortunately the Leafs don't have a third center that can give the lines balance so Domi gets the gig by default. I think Holmberg could eventually be that guy, but they don't seem to want to break up his partnership with Kampf, plus it's alot to ask from a rookie.

 

[Fogelhund]

Toronto - Carlson (@7M)
Washington - Mikhayev + Laegesson + Minten + 1st (tor)
Vancouver - Brodie

McCabe-Carlson
Rielly-Lybushkin
Benoit-Liljgren

Vancouver has 8 D already on their roster, and Soucy coming back from LTIR sometime late this month, or early in March... they have no need for Brodie, so no idea why this interests them.

Carlson is such a weird add, particularly costing us Minten and our 1st.... It's just not a good idea at all.

We've been winning in spite of them not because of them. Last night they were the worst line by a country mile, and it's been that way for most of the past two weeks. Unfortunately the Leafs don't have a third center that can give the lines balance so Domi gets the gig by default. I think Holmberg could eventually be that guy, but they don't seem to want to break up his partnership with Kampf, plus it's alot to ask from a rookie.

and yet.. .what 9-1 in the last ten, despite the lineup? I think they like the offensive side of these guys... but they need Nylander in particular to be the D guy on this line... I mean, unless you swap Bertuzzi and Jarnkrok, and then bring the defensive side of Jarnkrok there... and create a Tavares Bertuzzi McMann line? Which could be a handful.

 

[Scion]

Vancouver has 8 D already on their roster, and Soucy coming back from LTIR sometime late this month, or early in March... they have no need for Brodie, so no idea why this interests them.

Carlson is such a weird add, particularly costing us Minten and our 1st.... It's just not a good idea at all.


and yet.. .what 9-1 in the last ten, despite the lineup? I think they like the offensive side of these guys... but they need Nylander in particular to be the D guy on this line... I mean, unless you swap Bertuzzi and Jarnkrok, and then bring the defensive side of Jarnkrok there... and create a Tavares Bertuzzi McMann line? Which could be a handful.

My issue is in the playoffs. I think the Leafs can get away with that line in the regular season, though it's still not an optimal arrangement.

 

[Avilaj07]

Money Puck has it at 7GF 5A... I'm not sure why the variance.

When you look at the stats... Bertuzzi Tavares and Nylander look quite good.
McMann Tavares Jarnkrok is a very small sample, but also good.
Robertson Domi Jarnkrok were also good..

But the thing is... we've been winning with these lines, no matter what the stats say.. but there is options...



It's amazing that you just continue to want to give away everything, particularly the potential ELC guys... when we need them for cap reasons. These are just crazy proposals.

Actually, if you look out the money in vs money out, we'd only be adding roughly 800k in salary, not to mention that the 3 players we'd be receiving are all signed past this season which gives us a lot more clarity regarding our cap for next season.

 

[Killswitch]

Just reading Arizona's trade thread, they're looking for, and would feel lucky to get, a 3rd and a cap dump for Dumba. They definitely want him gone. No idea why any insiders would push a 1st except to keep lines open for future insider bs

 

[SprDaVE]

At this point, it am convinced that ‘impact’ rentals just don’t work. At least not for us. I’m fully content adding depth only (particularly if they add toughness) at the deadline. I’d look to the offseason to make bigger moves, and I think the leafs will be smart about it.

I'd look at flipping Abruzzese and Hirvonen whether it's for an equally valued AHLer (preferably defenseman), a pick or perhaps a rental/upgrade somewhere if at all possible.

Steeves is probably included in this but I think he's the AAA call-up right now and you never know how much injuries can pile up. I'd also like to see him get another shot to make the Leafs full time next year because I do think he has some good qualities to be useful.

 

[Menzinger]

Stamkos is a no from me. He's falling harder than Tavares at this point. Still putting up points, but he's a winger, and his defense has taken a nose dive. He's a -24 on the season, and I appreciate that +- isn't the be all and end all... but come on with him.

He also had his chance to come here and snubbed the Leafs. No thanks from me too.

 

[Fogelhund]

Actually, if you look out the money in vs money out, we'd only be adding roughly 800k in salary, not to mention that the 3 players we'd be receiving are all signed past this season which gives us a lot more clarity regarding our cap for next season.

That's great... but then you've got to replace forwards going out next year... and where we had ELC's, we will need free agents... it just isn't a great idea to get of all of those guys, and you certainly don't make that kind of a drastic move this late in the season.

My issue is in the playoffs. I think the Leafs can get away with that line in the regular season, though it's still not an optimal arrangement.

I mean... keep on using it, keep on winning, and keep on holding those players accountable to play D properly too.. If the team is winning, and we can get those guys to tighten up, maybe it works... and if not, change the lines, which isn't hard.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'd look at flipping Abruzzese and/or Hirvonen whether it's for an equally valued AHLer (preferably defenseman), a pick or perhaps a rental/upgrade somewhere if at all possible.

Steeves is probably included in this but I think he's the AAA call-up right now and you never know how much injuries can pile up. I'd also like to see him get another shot to make the Leafs full time next year because I do think he has some good qualities to be useful.

To me, those are offseason moves. Abruzzese and Hirvonen don't even become RFA's until the end of next year. Let the continue with the Marlies, and then decide what to do from there. See if there are moves, or if they help the Marlies, or whether you can upgrade... cheap controlled contracts, and we aren't getting much back for them.

I don't think Steeves has a place here either... I'd probably keep him too, and see if there is a weaker team that might be interested in the offseason, where he could have a better chance of making a lineup.

 

[Scion]

Just reading Arizona's trade thread, they're looking for, and would feel lucky to get, a 3rd and a cap dump for Dumba. They definitely want him gone. No idea why any insiders would push a 1st except to keep lines open for future insider bs

A 3rd and a sweetener to retain makes sense to me as well. Still not sure I'd do it though.

 

[Americanadian]

Now you are deliberately being obtuse.

It’s a legitimate question. What do your lines look like with a 3C? Where does Domi play?

 

[Scion]

It’s a legitimate question. What do your lines look like with a 3C? Where does Domi play?

Knies - Matthews - Marner
Bertuzzi - Tavares - Nylander
Domi - XXXXXXXX - Jarnkrok
Holmberg - Kampf - McMann

The other option is to make Domi the 4C, and use Kampf in a match-up role, but that wouldn't be my first choice.

Holmberg - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Robertson - Domi - McMann