Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[ACC1224]

I doubt it, they have entered rebuild mode.

Retool more so than rebuild.

 

[TMLAM34]

If the devils are throwing in the towel we should inquire about Marino. They have Nemec pretty much ready to take over the role anyways, maybe we could swoop in and grab him to play with Rielly.

That would definitely be a good target and NJ would be dealing from a position of strength given they have Hamilton and Nemac on the right side. Marino would be a pretty good fit next to Rielly. He’s also locked up. Someone I’d be willing to deal a 1st for.

Rielly - Marino
Brodie - Liljegren
Benoit - McCabe

 

[Burnie97]

That would definitely be a good target and NJ would be dealing from a position of strength given they have Hamilton and Nemac on the right side. Marino would be a pretty good fit next to Rielly. He’s also locked up. Someone I’d be willing to deal a 1st for.

Rielly - Marino
Brodie - Liljegren
Benoit - McCabe

Agreed. He was available from Pittsburgh I think it was a few years back???

Always seemed like he would fit well here. Doubt he is available though. Jersey probably isn't giving up. They're not too far out.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Agreed. He was available from Pittsburgh I think it was a few years back???

Always seemed like he would fit well here. Doubt he is available though. Jersey probably isn't giving up. They're not too far out.

Probably more of an offseason move

 

[Commander Clueless]

Standing pat and winning a few rounds would be fantastic. Why would there be backlash?

The argument will be if they had bought, they could have gone deeper.

You know it to be true

 

[Legion34]

If the Preds are selling Fabbro is the guy we should be chasing

Isn’t he a repeated healthy scratch?

 

[ACC1224]

The argument will be if they had bought, they could have gone deeper.

You know it to be true

I don't know that to be true at all.
Of course, there are always a few exceptions here.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Feeling so jaded that there's a leaf tax to trading with Calgary now. Will Pittsburgh be added to the list?

 

[tmlfan98]

Haven't seen this name brought up much, but Jan Rutta could be a sneaky good trade target if the cost is reasonable. Signed at 2.75M per year for 1 season after this one. Plays 16 mins a night at 5v5 (Tanev plays 16:20), and has solid defensive underlying metrics.

Tanev vs Rutta this season:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[rumman]

The argument will be if they had bought, they could have gone deeper.

You know it to be true

Whats better standing pat and going out early, or loading up and not winning it all? Flip side is they do nothing and go deep, or load up and still go out early, you just never know what Leaf team will show up of that there is no doubt…….

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's odd that some are acting like the Tanev trade was for "scraps" instead of a 1st.
A 2nd + prospect recently drafted in the 2nd round + conditional 3rd + a 4th is essentially a 1st.
There seems to be a trend that prospect value gets ignored in trades, with only the shiny number next to a draft pick counted.
It's probably why people here overestimate how much we've actually spent, since we prioritized trading picks over our well-performing prospects.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Feeling so jaded that there's a leaf tax to trading with Calgary now. Will Pittsburgh be added to the list?

Probably not, Calgary'sownership appears to have a grudge against Treliving and the Leafs.

Pittsburgh doesn't have that.

Kyle also doesn't appear to hold grudges.

Davidson literally leaked a blockbuster trade and 4 months later Dubas did a deal with him for Mrazek.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

It's odd that some are acting like the Tanev trade was for "scraps" instead of a 1st.
A 2nd + prospect recently drafted in the 2nd round + conditional 3rd + a 4th is essentially a 1st.
There seems to be a trend that prospect value gets ignored in trades, with only the shiny number next to a draft pick counted.
It's probably why people here overestimate how much we've actually spent, since we prioritized trading picks over our well-performing prospects.

I think it's safe to say that Grushnikov hasn't progressed nearly as well as what you'd typically be hoping for from a 2nd round.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think it's safe to say that Grushnikov hasn't progressed nearly as well as what you'd typically be hoping for from a 2nd round.

I don't think it's safe to say that at all.
He's a 20-year old defensive defenseman that played in the memorial cup and now has a regular spot in an AHL lineup as a rookie.
And based on Calgary's comments, somebody they heavily targeted and are really excited about.

Artem Grushnikov is a guy the Calgary Flames wanted.
The 20-year-old defenceman was a target for Flames general manager Craig Conroy. He wasn’t just the best piece the Flames got offered as they shopped Chris Tanev around the NHL. So while dealing away Tanev to the Dallas Stars is a big blow for a Flames team that’s still fighting for a wildcard spot, management believes it got a player with a bright future in Calgary back in return.

“I had the pro guys go in, the amateur guys knew him, I even had our development coach watch video on him just to kind of get a feel for him,” Conroy said Wednesday evening. “Once he was identified as a player we felt a need for, to be able to bring in a kind of defensive defenceman, a great penalty-killer …. He’s still young and developing and you’re trying to figure out where he’s going to be in a few years. But he was a guy we see getting a great opportunity moving forward, kind of in a shutdown role similar to what Chris was able to bring at some point.”

Selected in the second round, 48th overall, by the Stars in the 2021 NHL Draft, Grushnikov was a player that Flames’ management had identified as someone they wanted in the organization. The fact that he’s 20 years old means he’s closer to being able to make an NHL impact than what they might have gotten with another pick.

“You get a draft pick in there, we have draft picks, and they’re going to take a little bit longer,” Conroy said. “To get a 20-year-old who is playing in the American Hockey League right now and having a very good year. I know people might look at the numbers but it’s not about that for him.

“It’s about what he does defensively, on the penalty-kill. I think if you asked (Stars GM) Jim Nill, it wasn’t easy for Jim Nill to give him up. It’s a guy we targeted. The pro scouts liked him, obviously we all watched him, management, and we’re excited to get him into the fold.”

 

[Fogelhund]

It's odd that some are acting like the Tanev trade was for "scraps" instead of a 1st.
A 2nd + prospect recently drafted in the 2nd round + conditional 3rd + a 4th is essentially a 1st.
There seems to be a trend that prospect value gets ignored in trades, with only the shiny number next to a draft pick counted.
It's probably why people here overestimate how much we've actually spent, since we prioritized trading picks over our well-performing prospects.

It's a pick in the 50 range, and a defensive D man, who has no offensive upside at all, and isn't as big as your typical defensive D. Yes, he has strong skating, and defensive IQ, but in a redraft, he's not a second rounder. (Go back and read about him pre-draft, it was thought he had offensive upside, which he does not... take that offensive upside out, and he's falling) The conditional pick is unlikely to be met. Calgary did not get a 4th, NJ did, in order to eat some salary. Keep in mind, Dallas also got a prospect back, though it's purely a lottery pick at this point, a forrth round, 6'5" goalie.. but you never know with goalies.

So, it was a late second, a 2021 2nd draft pick who has likely fallen, for Tanev and a goalie prospect. At least as far as Dallas is concerned.

Using Athletic draft value chart, Dallas would currently pick 59th, that's a 1.2 value. The D is about the same value, maybe less.... That's a 2.4 value to Calgary. Subtract 0.2 for the lottery pick goalie and you get 2.2. That's second round value.

Dallas paid a little more in the deal, mostly to retain to NJ. That 4th round pick is worth about 0.3. SO net, Dallas paid 2.5 for Tanev, with double retention, which is still second round value.

By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick

The NHL Draft isn’t nearly as random as the NFL’s, but there are inefficiencies that can be exposed and an opportunity to glean value.

theathletic.com

It's not scraps for sure though, but Calgary received nothing of high value... like the best piece back is a mid 50's draft pick.... think about that.

 

[DarkKnight]

I can understand why the Wings want to ditch Justin Holl, they do have playoff aspirations.

 

[notdoneyet]

We need to add a tough dman and a tough forward or Florida will cave us in

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yes, he has strong skating, and defensive IQ, but in a redraft, he's not a second rounder.

See above. I don't think that's true. He was a specific target, not a throw in. And there's really no reason his value would have dropped.

Calgary did not get a 4th, NJ did, in order to eat some salary.

People seem to count the draft picks we've used for retention.

 

[Fogelhund]

We need to add a tough dman and a tough forward or Florida will cave us in

At least a big physical D man, who can handle that play, even if he's not tough in the drop gloves way. We brought in Reaves, Bertuzzi, Domi to play a more playoff style.... Whether they are in the lineup, and play is another matter. Reaves, at least hasn't been the steaming pile of poop he was early in the season, and if he keeps up recent form, perhaps should get games.

Another tough forward probably just replaces Reaves, so it's a marginal improvement. I haven't seen any realistic names, that are available for forwards, higher up in the lineup who would help.

 

[Fogelhund]

See above. I don't think that's true. He was a specific target, not a throw in. And there's really no reason his value would have dropped.

People seem to count the draft picks we've used for retention.

PR speak.... teams will always wax poetically about their new acquisition.. happens every time.

Grushnikov’s intangibles are certainly something to keep an eye on. His two-way game is fueled by his strong skating ability, one that allows him to create shooting lanes at one end of the ice and close gaps at the other. His acceleration and edgework allow him to efficiently position himself at both ends of the ice and his adaptability makes him flexible in all situations.
Offensively, while being a bit of a question mark, Grushnikov still manages to make an impact. His aforementioned edgework allows him to open up shooting lanes from the point and his aggressive mindset leads to more pinches from the blue line. While he does make smart reads from anywhere on the ice, his comfort with the puck on his stick is a point of improvement for the young Russian, as there is undoubtedly untapped offensive potential.

Sorry, there is no two way game, he doesn't create shooting lanes..... there is no untapped offensive potential. He didn't play in the his draft year.... I think had he played, and continued to show little offensive upside, he would have dropped... The Covid year was a weird year, draft picks were guesses.

------Yes, I included in another row, what Calgary paid, including retention, go back and read... it still ends up being second round value. That does change to low first, if Dallas makes the Stanley Cup final, with the conditional pick.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Unless we're getting a legit RD either with term, or someone we can extend whose age matches our core, just stand pat honestly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

PR speak.... teams will always wax poetically about their new acquisition.. happens every time.

Teams usually don't "wax poetically" about irrelevant, worthless prospects, or talk about how they extensively scouted and targeted them, consider them the best piece in the deal, and chose them over a pick. His offensive potential hasn't really changed. He had the same lack of production in lower leagues pre-draft. He was drafted for his defense and PK ability, and he's coveted now for his defense and PK ability. Whatever loss of belief in offensive potential would be outweighed by him proving his defensive potential in higher leagues.

I mean, this is a perfect example of the phenomenon. People go crazy over a shiny late 1st. But put together a package equal to a late 1st, by utilizing prospects, and people find reasons to devalue and dismiss them, and then act like it's paying less.

Yes, I included in another row, what Calgary paid, including retention, go back and read...

I assume you mean Dallas. It cost Dallas a 2nd round pick, a prospect recently drafted in the 2nd round that's having a good year as a 20 year old rookie in the AHL, a conditional 3rd, and a 4th for Tanev (75% retained) and a throwaway unsigned prospect in his mid-20s.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Whats better standing pat and going out early, or loading up and not winning it all? Flip side is they do nothing and go deep, or load up and still go out early, you just never know what Leaf team will show up of that there is no doubt…….

I can see both angles.

Load up and fail, shouldn't have spent assets.

Don't load up and fail, wasted Matthews' 70 goal season.

Don't load up, do well but don't make it all the way... What could have been....

Maybe I'm a pessimist.

 

[Mitch nylander]

I'd like to go the Artem Zub route. A name not mentioned here.

Ottawa is a mess right now, players want out. He's a RD with term that plays the right way. I think he can bring a lot to the table.

 

[rumman]

I can see both angles.

Load up and fail, shouldn't have spent assets.

Don't load up and fail, wasted Matthews' 70 goal season.

Don't load up, do well but don't make it all the way... What could have been....

Maybe I'm a pessimist.

Nah, your a realist……..