Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Sypher04]

Probably 7-8 year anywhere between 7.5M to 8.5M per if I'm a betting man, especially if we consider the Leafs as an option.

Yeah that’s about what I was thinking too. Year 1 would be very hard cap wise, but with expected cap growth would likely age very well. Would be amazing if we could give him the exact Morgan Rielly deal

 

[nuck]

Gudbranson would be a good add if Columbus retains some money.

It would essentially be the Luke Schenn add from last year. Rielly pairs really well with simple players like Gudbranson, Schenn, Lyubushkin, etc.

I don't think Gudbranson has ever played that high in a lineup. He was effective in Calgary as a 3rd pair 18:00 a night guy but that was really his career year. I think there is a strong possibility he gets eaten up with harder matchups and you end up with a $4M third pairing guy. Pretty risky if you only have the one bullet to shoot.

 

[Fogelhund]

Leafs have bad and small….

Needs improvement... not bad... As a team, the Leafs are 18th of 32 teams in size in the league, and the difference between us and the top isn't much.

Vancouver is 1st in the league in points, and 27th in size
Boston is 2nd in the league, and 6th in size.
Florida is 3rd in the league, and 20th in size... yes, smaller than us.
Dallas is 4th and 10th in size.
Rangers are 5th and 3rd in size.
Colorado is 6th and 22nd in size. THey won the cup two years ago.

Islanders are second in size, and 18th in the league. Washington is 4th size and 23rd in points.

Not a lot of correlation there.

If you moved out Brodie, and inserted Parayko/Gudbranson/Schenn.. suddenly we are the same size on average as Vegas.... is that all of the sudden a wonderful big D core?

Our main six D in the playoffs last year, was a full two pounds lighter than Vegas's current top 7.

And no... our D players are not BAD... our team D has been bad, but that's as much a function of how the forwards have played, and goalie issues.

Brodie's numbers away from Rielly are actually pretty good... and it's no surprise that without Rielly the team is top 5 in the league defensively... a) they are actually finally playing team defense, b) better goaltending, and c) Rielly has never been good defensively.

Our main ongoing issue, is finding a great partner to cover up for Rielly... that has always been the issue. You find the right defensive guy for Rielly, and I mean defensive, and you solve a lot of this teams issues with one player. Being Rielly's partner is a tough ask of anyone. It's something that we really need to get right.

A guy like Schenn, who worked incredibly well with Morgan, should have been a priority signing. I think Nashville paid him too much though. But we need that one guy, who can play with Mo, with some size, net clearing ability, good defensively, and a lot of these problems go away.

 

[Dreakmur]

Needs improvement... not bad... As a team, the Leafs are 18th of 32 teams in size in the league, and the difference between us and the top isn't much.

Vancouver is 1st in the league in points, and 27th in size
Boston is 2nd in the league, and 6th in size.
Florida is 3rd in the league, and 20th in size... yes, smaller than us.
Dallas is 4th and 10th in size.
Rangers are 5th and 3rd in size.
Colorado is 6th and 22nd in size. THey won the cup two years ago.

Islanders are second in size, and 18th in the league. Washington is 4th size and 23rd in points.

Not a lot of correlation there.

If you moved out Brodie, and inserted Parayko/Gudbranson/Schenn.. suddenly we are the same size on average as Vegas.... is that all of the sudden a wonderful big D core?

Our main six D in the playoffs last year, was a full two pounds lighter than Vegas's current top 7.

And no... our D players are not BAD... our team D has been bad, but that's as much a function of how the forwards have played, and goalie issues.

Brodie's numbers away from Rielly are actually pretty good... and it's no surprise that without Rielly the team is top 5 in the league defensively... a) they are actually finally playing team defense, b) better goaltending, and c) Rielly has never been good defensively.

Our main ongoing issue, is finding a great partner to cover up for Rielly... that has always been the issue. You find the right defensive guy for Rielly, and I mean defensive, and you solve a lot of this teams issues with one player. Being Rielly's partner is a tough ask of anyone. It's something that we really need to get right.

A guy like Schenn, who worked incredibly well with Morgan, should have been a priority signing. I think Nashville paid him too much though. But we need that one guy, who can play with Mo, with some size, net clearing ability, good defensively, and a lot of these problems go away.

What metrics are you using to determine the size of a blueline? Just height? Just weight? Both combined? Top-6 guys averaged, or do the guys who play more get weighted more?

 

[Buds17]

The question then becomes what does an extension look like?

That might be taking it a step too far though (as being open to a trade as a rental player isn't the same as being willing to sign a new contract over a longer term). I can obviously still appreciate that not appearing on a NTC is a step through the door and in the right direction.

 

[Jmo89]

For reference sake, here is where I see the team next year, as potential roster players. Don't get worked up about lines, I just put together a roster, with no intent on creating lines at all.

This is 23 bodies already. Our needs will be a second goalie, two top 4 D, and perhaps another 2/3 C... 4 bodies listed here, will be moved out, or Marlies bound. I see approximately $15-17 million in cap space available, to sign these four bodies, depending on who we move on from.

Free Agent Signings​

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Grebenkin, Nikita	3	$800,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Benoit, Simon	3	$1,200,000
Lajoie, Maxime	2	$800,000
Liljegren, Timothy	3	$3,000,000
Robertson, Nicholas	2	$1,200,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
McMann, Bobby	2	$1,200,000
Lagesson, William	2	$900,000

​

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$87,700,000	$77,251,333	$0	$0	$10,448,667

Delete Player

Buyout

Add to Trade

Prorated Cap Hit

Roster​

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Knies, Matthew $925,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $13,250,000 C NMC UFA - 4	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000 RW NMC UFA - 1
Robertson, Nicholas $1,200,000 LW, RW RFA	Tavares, John $11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 1	Nylander, William $11,500,000 RW NMC UFA - 8
Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Kämpf, David $2,400,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Reaves, Ryan $1,350,000 RW UFA - 2
Cowan, Easton $935,833 C, RW RFA - 2	Holmberg, Pontus $800,000 C, LW RFA - 1	McMann, Bobby $1,200,000 RW, LW UFA
LW5	Minten, Fraser $845,833 C, LW RFA - 2	Grebenkin, Nikita $800,000 RW RFA
		RW6
Roster created at CapFriendly.com | Follow on Twitter @CapFriendly

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Liljegren, Timothy $3,000,000 RD RFA	Woll, Joseph $766,667 G RFA - 1
McCabe, Jake $2,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Benoit, Simon $1,200,000 LD RFA	G2
Rifai, Marshall $775,000 LD UFA - 1	Lajoie, Maxime $800,000 LD RFA	G3
Lagesson, William $900,000 LD/RD UFA	Timmins, Conor $1,100,000 RD RFA - 1

If Brodie shows over the next 30 games that he's still a decent player on LD I wouldn't be opposed tl him coming back cheap. I'd also be fine with Domi coming back at his current price tag. They would still probably have $9-10M for a goalie and top 4 D after that. I'd also like to see them get rid of Kampf and use that money elsewhere.

Bertuzzi being as bad as he has at least shows us what the team should be able to do during the crunch next season. They won't win the division but they should make the playoffs.

 

[Sypher04]

That might be taking it a step too far though (as being open to a trade as a rental player isn't the same as being willing to sign a new contract over a longer term). I can obviously still appreciate that not appearing on a NTC is a step through the door and in the right direction.

I would agree, but the tweet did also suggest hearing that Toronto as a location would be appealing to him, so not just the NTC angle. Obviously any acquisition needs to come with a window first to discuss willingness to sign an extension in Toronto and the numbers. Flipping for Hanifin with no garauntees beyond this year doesn’t feel like an option for us

 

[Fogelhund]

What metrics are you using to determine the size of a blueline? Just height? Just weight? Both combined? Top-6 guys averaged, or do the guys who play more get weighted more?

weight is referenced above... top 6/7 guys simple average.

For overall teams, it's all players, according to Elite Prospects listing. https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2023-2024

 

[Dreakmur]

weight is referenced above... top 6/7 guys simple average.

For overall teams, it's all players, according to Elite Prospects listing. https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2023-2024

So Vancouver’s blueline that includes 6’8” Tyler Myers, 6’6” Nikita Zadorov, and 6’5” Carson Soucy is one of the smallest….

 

[Leaf Rocket]

So Vancouver’s blueline that includes 6’8” Tyler Myers, 6’6” Nikita Zadorov, and 6’5” Carson Soucy is one be of the smallest blueline’s ….

I'm pretty sure Tyler Myers might skew the average height but he is no way someone who is rough and tough with his game to be like oh damn Chara is after my ass.

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm pretty sure Tyler Myers might skew the average height but he is no way someone who is rough and tough with his game to be like oh damn Chara is after my ass.

I just listed his height. Whatever inferences you want to make are entirely on you.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I just listed his height. Whatever inferences you want to make are entirely on you.

Fair enough, just pointing out Myers height and his play are very much a stark contrast

 

[Fogelhund]

So Vancouver’s blueline that includes 6’8” Tyler Myers, 6’6” Nikita Zadorov, and 6’5” Carson Soucy is one of the smallest….

Try reading again.

 

[stats1]

If it’s true that Hanifin would be ok coming here if you’re Treliving you gotta do everything in your power to make a trade happen. 27 year old top pairing Dmen don’t become available often. Then you try to work on an extension or you work on one as part of a sign and trade

 

[rumman]

I still yhink Peeke checks a lot of boxes for the little it would take to get him, then get one more D man and that’s worthy of a playoff run………

 

[Fogelhund]

If it’s true that Hanifin would be ok coming here if you’re Treliving you gotta do everything in your power to make a trade happen. 27 year old top pairing Dmen don’t become available often. Then you try to work on an extension or you work on one as part of a sign and trade

But he is only 207lbs!!!! We clearly need someone who is 230 or bigger.

Sorry... just being sarcastic.

I still yhink Peeke checks a lot of boxes for the little it would take to get him, then get one more D man and that’s worthy of a playoff run………

So who are you removing from the lineup then? Benoit and Brodie/Liljegren?

 

[Mickey Marner]

If Hanifin is willing to come here and sign a comparable contract to Rielly, I think he’s a good target. He’s not a true #1, but having a Bouwmeester or Hedican type minute muncher in your top-4 is always good long-term option.

 

[BertCorbeau]

If Hanifin is willing to come here and sign a comparable contract to Rielly, I think he’s a good target. He’s not a true #1, but having a Bouwmeester or Hedican type minute muncher in your top-4 is always good long-term option.

Yes I think he’s a good of target as any to stabilize the blue line to line up a new contention window:

Rielly- xxxx
Hanifin-Liljegren
Benoit-McCabe

Matt Roy would then be an excellent signing to pair with Rielly.

If not, Tanev could be a stopgap for a couple of season.

 

[nuck]

if we could just get Tanev for less than a first I would say that's good enough on the backend and then try and add a guy like Boone Jenner.

Jenner for a first plus Jarnkrok

Tavares Matthews Marner
Bertuzzi Domi Nylander
Knies Jenner Robertson
McMann Kampf Reeves(think we might need him against Boston and Florida)
Holmberg

Rielly Tanev
Brodie Lilly
Benoit McCabe

Tanev for a 1st but Calgary's second needs to come back. If the Flames trade Markstrom those two picks could be 10 spots apart.

 

[Stephen]

Shifting the trade target to Hanifin and locking him into a long term deal would be my preference. Then you get Tanev as a UFA and you’ve mostly accomplished what you set out to by making the blueline bigger, better.

Rielly
Hanifin
McCabe
Liljegren
Tanev (or someone else)
Benoit

Something like that.

 

[Kiwi]

Hanafin is a lefty, so who's playing with Rielly and what's the cost going to be for Hanifin?

I'm more than willing to throw our 1st at him but I seriously doubt that's going to cut it so 1st + Minten? 1st + Cowan?
We don't have a 2nd to add to this deal

Are we comfortable doing that?

 

[4thline]

Hanafin is a lefty, so who's playing with Rielly and what's the cost going to be for Hanifin?

I'm more than willing to throw our 1st at him but I seriously doubt that's going to cut it so 1st + Minten? 1st + Cowan?
We don't have a 2nd to add to this deal

Are we comfortable doing that?

1st+minten+ niemela?

Pricey, and leaves the D pool essentially empty, but with a hypothetical top 4 of
Rielly-xx
Hanifin-Liljegren

locked up, maybe he's redundant?

as to Rielly- lets try McCabe again

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Hanifin extended 7yrs x 7.5 million
Tanev 50% retained

To Calgary-
Jarnkrok
Reaves
Abruzzese
Minten
Niemela
1st Round Pick

 

[Kiwi]

1st+minten+ niemela?

Pricey, and leaves the D pool essentially empty, but with a hypothetical top 4 of
Rielly-xx
Hanifin-Liljegren

locked up, maybe he's redundant?

as to Rielly- lets try McCabe again

Yeah that looks about right, that hurts

It kills our defensive pool and our center pool in one go, i think we have to do it though if hes willing to sign a Rielly type contract

 

[Evilhomer]

Yeah that looks about right, that hurts

It kills our defensive pool and our center pool in one go, i think we have to do it though if hes willing to sign a Rielly type contract

I would also worry about the prospect of resigning Hanifin. I'm not sure it would necessarily be a straightforward exercise.