Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[TheShape]

Hanifin is unlikely for those reasons. But the assumption would be that he'd re-sign if traded for obviously. I was just commenting on the trade proposal and what it could mean if it ever happened.

I'd have zero interest in Zadorov because he's a true bottom pairing defenseman. The Leafs need quality and if they can't get a really good upgrade, then going for a bad option just for the sake of it isn't a good alternative. Tanev fits what they need for sure, but age/regression/health is questionable.

I disagree about McCabe and I feel like he's a fairly good mid pair defenseman on a good team. He also hits like a truck, which is something we lack, to go along with a capable 2-way game. I don't understand any notion he's a 3rd pairing defenseman or not very good... it blows my mind quite a bit and makes no sense.

Agreed about Zadorov but Treliving is a big fan unfortunately, I want nothing to do with him at top 4 money.

I love McCabe, never said he isn't very good. Appreciate his snarl and he takes things personally out there which we need more of. At his peak he's a true 4 but he needs a solid 3 to do the heavy lifting imo, the more responsibilities McCabe is tasked with the more running around he does.

We need two top 4 d-men but don't have the capital or cap space to make it happen right now, it's the area to target this off-season. You look at the cup winners the last 5 years or so and they all had that borderline 4 anchoring the 3rd pair, it's no slight on McCabe, it's a great problem to have.

 

[WTFMAN99]

If they were willing to move Peeke as a negative asset, he would have been moved already. Adding him doesn't reduce the price IMHO.

Hayes might be a worthwhile target then.

 

[Fogelhund]

Agreed about Zadorov but Treliving is a big fan unfortunately, I want nothing to do with him at top 4 money.

I love McCabe, never said he isn't very good. Appreciate his snarl and he takes things personally out there which we need more of. At his peak he's a true 4 but he needs a solid 3 to do the heavy lifting imo, the more responsibilities McCabe is tasked with the more running around he does.

We need two top 4 d-men but don't have the capital or cap space to make it happen right now, it's the area to target this off-season. You look at the cup winners the last 5 years or so and they all had that borderline 4 anchoring the 3rd pair, it's no slight on McCabe, it's a great problem to have.

When you look at the available UFA D this offseason, it is overwhelmingly LD that are available.

Gostisbehere, Hanifin, Skjei, OEL, Forsling, Gustafsson are the highest points totals, in order, and all are LD, Dillon is the next LD.

In order for RD are Myers, Walker, Schultz, Roy, DeMelo, Tanev will be UFA too.

IMO, there are more LD that could be a really good second pairing guys, than RD who should make good partners with Mo.

In trades, the RD are likely a bit cheaper than some of the LD names, and there are those who have decent priced longer contracts. You've got Larsson, Gudas as my two favourite names, and others have mentioned Weegar, Parayko.

There are at least some options, if we are smart about it.

 

[Kurtz]

Because a goalies' prime is like a 5-6 year span at best in most cases. Look at guys like Price and Vasi. Had an amazing few years and then started showing some serious decline. Saros could come here and not be an upgrade at all. He even has a .903sv% this year.

The days of guys like Brodeur, Roy, Hasek, Belfour being elite for 90% of their career are over.

We have too many issues to spend assets on a goalie. To me that's like putting a bandaid on the titanic. Spending assets on stacking the defense is more important imo.

I don't think that's remotely true or has ever been true. Price and Vasi had major injuries. Take a look at who is leading the Vezina race this year for example:

#1 Hellebuck. 30 years old.
#2 Demko. 28 years old, .901 save percentage last year.
#3. Adin Hill, 27 years old
#4 Swayman
#5 Markstrom, 34 years old, .894 last year
#6 Bobrovsky
#7 Talbot

Goalies with a long history of being elite can sometimes have a bad season, and that's the perfect opportunity to buy low. Hell, we saw first hand when we played against Price and Bobrovsky that even when they have a bad regular season they can still bounce back and carry you to the finals. At 28, Saros is younger than most guys on thatlist.

 

[Sypher04]

Build a top defense and play the right way

Mmmmm Vegas plays that way .

Hill was nothing until he showed up in Vegas

I wouldn’t say he was nothing. Several of us actually suggested acquiring him back before we signed Samsonov the first time. There’s no doubt he’s been able to make the next step in Vegas though

 

[Torontonian]

Jenner would be a nice acquisition, but the cost would be incredibly high. We don't really have the assets to address our D, and then pick up a Jenner too. I mean, not unless we are moving a Core 4... and even then, Columbus's biggest need would be C, and we'd be subtracting from that, not adding for them.

It’s been reported multiple times, Treliving wants to kill two birds with one stone when trading our first, in getting a dman plus a forward. So looks like that the route he’s looking to take, probably would be a Jenner + Peeke combo or something along those lines on another team.

 

[Fogelhund]

It’s been reported multiple times, Treliving wants to kill two birds with one stone when trading our first, in getting a dman plus a forward. So looks like that the route he’s looking to take, probably would be a Jenner + Peeke combo or something along those lines on another team.

I like Peeke, but we probably should be aiming higher in the D acquisition, and expect lower on the forward.

 

[ULF_55]

Niemela might make the team next year and play on the 3rd pair. I'm sure Benoit gets another contract so those 2 could be the 3rd pair. If Liljegren isn't moved then I'd assume him and McCabe is the 2nd pair. If we can sign Roy then I guess that could make the d core look like this:

Rielly-Roy
McCabe-Liljegren
Benoit-Niemela
Either Kokkonen or a FA signed to a league minimum contract as the 7th.

Doesn't look too bad but like I've said before I just don't know if Keefe likes/trusts Liljegren anymore and I think Keefe has destroyed any confidence Lili ever had. So who knows what happens to him.

Really, it would be nice if they could make some trades and land 1 top 4 via trade and 1 top 4 via free agency.

Rielly - Top 4
McCabe - Liljegren / Top 4
Benoit - Liljegren/Top 4
Niemela, other Marlies

Of course, everyone wants 2 numbers 1's to make it so, but only 4 Aces in a deck.

 

[ULF_55]

I know people love to say it, but the Leafs aren't moving Marner or letting him leave as a free agent. He will resign here. I am certain Tavares will also resign, and in that case it will just be a matter of how much money he is willing to leave on the table in order to stay in Toronto.

Yeah, IMO
marner is staying and re-signing for more.
Tavares is staying and re-signing for less.

They'll have to hire a GM who can add at least 1 top 4 defender via free agency and perhaps trade for another.
There really isn't much else he needs do to earn his coin.

 

[Scion]

There’s been a mid-late 20s Hanifin calibre D moved every year for a decade, he’s not a unicorn.

List the comparables that are 27/28.

 

[rumman]

Games changed and is a lot faster now. Left shot defenders on the right side used to be much more common. We were told after that Florida series he just had a bad series and he would get back to himself. Half way through February and still waiting for that to happen so I don't think it really counts as recency bias anymore.

Regardless of what some hope, Brodie is spent, scared of any physical contact and that’s unacceptable behaviour for a D man………

 

[WTFMAN99]

I wouldn’t say he was nothing. Several of us actually suggested acquiring him back before we signed Samsonov the first time. There’s no doubt he’s been able to make the next step in Vegas though

I keep coming back to the fact that its INCREDIBLY difficult to get a top true stud #1 defenseman in this league...the last chance we had was Pietrangelo.

The next best strategy might be to just get a great group of top legit top 4 D this off-season.

Rielly-X
McCabe-X
Benoit-X

Liljegren is maybe apart of that group, we'll see, he might be needed to move in a trade for an upgrade, open either way.

 

[rumman]

I have to ask, what type of D-man does Toronto need?

They need D men that can first and foremost defend. Mo is as defensively liable as the rest of the team’s D, you can have one of those on your team, but a D made up of offensive D man that can't defend is a recipe for disaster. McCabe/Benoit are a solid third pairing, get a guy like Peeke to play with Mo and your first pairing is set. The middle pairing is where things get dicy, first off Brodie and Gio have no place on this team. Lilly depending on if his high ankle sprain is still affecting him is a big question, if his ankle is okay he needs to be replaced, that leaves a middle pairing lhs D man needed to round out a acceptable D core………

You have no idea what the clowns at MLSEL will do with Marner. If he and the team get bounced in round #1, how can you justify paying this guy more that Nylander and run them back again. That is the true definition of insanity.

Tell you one thing, if they exit quickly and they resign him with a number that starts with an 11, it will further prove winning is not #1 here. And if you do not believe me, God bless you and your faith.

Most likely what these idiots will do, Mitch is popular, you don’t get rid of popular players if your the Maple Leafs regardless of if they continually choke in the playoffs……..

 

[horner]

I wouldn’t say he was nothing. Several of us actually suggested acquiring him back before we signed Samsonov the first time. There’s no doubt he’s been able to make the next step in Vegas though

Thanks
I do remember alot of people talking about him.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

What about Pelech from the Islanders ?

Reilly. Ufa
Pelech. Liljegren
Benoit. McCabe

Adding Roy, Demelo, Tanev, Pesce etc next season makes that a very solid defensive group.
It would cost a 1st + but pelech would solidify the d core.

 

[WTFMAN99]

What about Pelech from the Islanders ?

Reilly. Ufa
Pelech. Liljegren
Benoit. McCabe

Adding Roy, Demelo, Tanev, Pesce etc next season makes that a very solid defensive group.
It would cost a 1st + but pelech would solidify the d core.

Why would they trade Pelech though? Their LD is a bit suspect if he was moved.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Price 10.5 million hasn't played in a while
Bobrovski 10 million for 907 Save percentage under this contract
Vasilevskiy 9.5 did win cup in first year but Kucherov didn't play allowing that team to be so much better then it would have been 917 save percentage under this contract
Gibson 6.4 million 902 save percentage under this contract tho I give him a bit of a break playing on a terrible team
Matt Murray 6.25 million no explaination needed
Hellebuyck 6.12 million 917 save percentage I think this was probably good value
Binnington 6 million for 900 save percentage under this contract
Markstrom 6 million 906 save percentage under this contract
Grubauer 5.9 million for 891 save percentage under this contract
Shesterkin 5.6 million 920 save percentage under this contract

these are currently the top 10 goalie's in terms of cap hit. how many of these guys have been worth the contract given? 2? maybe 3? and the next guys in line are Merlikins Jarry Kuemper Campbell and Lehner so it just goes to show spending money on a big name goalie hasn't really paid off for hardly anyone.

By GSAx, of these current goalies with the 10 highest cap hits, through their contracts:
-2 have provided horrific, franchise-crippling goaltending
-3 more have provided below league average goaltending
-2 more have provided above league average goaltending that has been bad value relative to their contract

Which means only 3 of the top 10 highest paid are providing good value on their contracts. All 3 of those were re-signed homegrown goalies, and they were drafted in 2012, 2012, and 2014.

This doesn't appear to be an issue that a team can just go out and throw big money at an external piece to solve.

 

[Martin Skoula]

List the comparables that are 27/28.

Weegar
Hronek
Chychrun (half step worse but younger)
Lindholm
Jones
Hamilton
Towes
McDonagh
Muzzin

Then there’s the next tier down with guys line Gavrikov, Provorov, Marino, Siegenthaler, Larrson

#2-3 defensemen in their mid-late 20s really are not that uncommon or expensive, I don’t know why we have to have the same song and dance about how if we don’t pick up the flavor of the deadline we’ll never have a chance to ever get one again. Hanifin isn’t even the best mid-20s defenseman the Flames have acquired, both Hamilton and Weegar are comfortably better.

 

[Roo]

I try not to bother or spend too much attention on trade scenarios for a variety of reasons, but couldn’t help thinking about the following recently.

Based on my assessment of the team, we need to stabilize our D and move Tavares to LW. Yes we need help in goal, but the most cost effective approach here, at least for this year, is to see Sammy improve and get healthy. Lots of time left in the season for that.

So here’s what I’m thinking: Seattle is well out of a playoff spot, so we target Larsson (1y left at $4m hit) and Wennberg (pending ufa). Rielly gets a solid shutdown defender that brings some physicality, allowing us to move Brodie to LD where he should be. Wennberg gives us a legit checking center that also has some offence (unlike Kampf who is a 4c). Domi was Dallas’ 2c last year and can be even more effective with some more talent. Tavares permanently goes to LW, just like we saw after acquiring O’Rielly last year. He looked good doing it, has the offense, it’s the defensive responsibilities at center that is too much for him.

Tavares - Matthews - Bert
Robertson - Domi - Nylander (insanely fast line)
Knies - Wennberg - Marner (dangerous checking line)
4th line

Rielly - Larsson
Brodie - Liljegren
Benoit - McCabe

I haven’t put forward assets out, but my general thinking is that these names don’t really come up on deadline lists, so maybe the price is a little lower. Obviously Seattle won’t just give these guys away. I could be wrong, maybe Seattle isn’t selling who knows. But this is the kind of trade I’d be looking at. Solid depth guys but not marquee names that will command a huge price tag.

 

[-DeMo-]

By GSAx, of these current goalies with the 10 highest cap hits, through their contracts:
-2 have provided horrific, franchise-crippling goaltending
-3 more have provided below league average goaltending
-2 more have provided above league average goaltending that has been bad value relative to their contract

Which means only 3 of the top 10 highest paid are providing good value on their contracts. All 3 of those were re-signed homegrown goalies, and they were drafted in 2012, 2012, and 2014.

This doesn't appear to be an issue that a team can just go out and throw big money at an external piece to solve.

two of these guys are Hellebuyck and Shesterkin obviously and the other Vasilevskiy, but with how he played last year and this year so far even tho he's been injuried this season I doubt at the end of his current contract will Vas provide value in his current deal. he probably provided huge value in his old deal. but wont provide 9.5 million in value in net over the next 4 seasons.

 

[WTFMAN99]

two of these guys are Hellebuyck and Shesterkin obviously and the other Vasilevskiy, but with how he played last year and this year so far even tho he's been injuried this season I doubt at the end of his current contract will Vas provide value in his current deal. he probably provided huge value in his old deal. but wont provide 9.5 million in value in net over the next 4 seasons.

It's forgivable.

Similar to Toews and Kane...they got the big pay days and they brought you 3 cups...the last contract isn't the best but they brought your franchise glory.

I'd probably look at that Nylander extension with a lot of love if he was a big part of bringing a cup home but as it is, we have won a playoff round and his deal is not likely to be good on the back end of it....

 

[BigFatCat999]

Competent

But ideally one defensively orientated top pair RD and another top 4 who shoots either side that can move a puck, with term

Not asking for much

I notice you guys have Carrier and Fabbro over there, you guys selling and if you are what's the cost and where would those two line up ideally?

Thank you for your replies. A super deal could be in the future

 

[Torontonian]

Yeah, IMO
marner is staying and re-signing for more.
Tavares is staying and re-signing for less.

They'll have to hire a GM who can add at least 1 top 4 defender via free agency and perhaps trade for another.
There really isn't much else he needs do to earn his coin.

Tavares will always have a soft spot in my heart for coming home (fans have always dreamed of something like this happening) but his 2nd contract needs to be an absolute win for us money wise.. Either he accepts a low # to help us out, or he can move his family at age 34 somewhere else. Theres no reason why Toronto can’t win that deal.

If the team doesn’t add a REAL top 4 dman between now and the start of next season, the GM has failed miserably..

Moe - xxx
McCabe - Lilly
Xxx - Benoit

Is a decent group to go into the off season with.

 

[keonsbitterness]

You have no idea what the clowns at MLSEL will do with Marner. If he and the team get bounced in round #1, how can you justify paying this guy more that Nylander and run them back again. That is the true definition of insanity.

I think we have a very clear idea after Shanahan called Matthews, Nylander and Marner following the firing of Dubas and told them he wants to re-sign all of them.

Two down, one to go.

 

[Torontonian]

Yeah, IMO
marner is staying and re-signing for more.
Tavares is staying and re-signing for less.

They'll have to hire a GM who can add at least 1 top 4 defender via free agency and perhaps trade for another.
There really isn't much else he needs do to earn his coin.

Tavares will always have a soft spot in my heart for coming home (fans have always dreamed of something like this happening) but his 2nd contract needs to be an absolute win for us money wise.. Either he accepts a low # to help us out, or he can move his family at age 34 somewhere else. Theres no reason why Toronto can’t win that deal.

If the team doesn’t add a REAL top 4 dman between now and the start of next season, the GM has failed miserably..

Moe - xxx
McCabe - Lilly
Xxx - Beni