Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Fogelhund]

""

 

[rumman]

In theory what you’re saying makes sense, but the time to make a move for a merely projected top pairing D was 4-5 years ago. We need assets that can play at a high level now. Right now our window is this year +4. Can’t wait and hope for a guy to reach his potential. I’m not saying you don’t acquire anyone of said nature but the timing of such a gamble is sub optimal and could really set us back if he’s not capable of being who he is projected to be

Roger that, but Parayko in my opinion isn’t the difference to winning a cup this year, so there’s a risk his game drops off as soon as next season, there really are no guarantees in life, both scenarios have their pluses and minuses……..

 

[SprDaVE]

We aren't Florida they were building a team

We have 4 really good players 5 if JT can find his game .

Bob caught fire

I didn't say we were, mostly just an example of where the Leafs are and what they should be aiming for the deadline. They aren't gonna start giving away players because they won't give up on the season unlike what some fans hope for. It's illogical.

 

[Sypher04]

While I fully agree with your assessment, I don't particularly see the situations as that different. Two teams with very competitive rosters, who, as you point out, for very different reasons, just don't appear to be competitive enough that year. When we look at where we are as a team, I think most agree that this team just has too many holes, to really succeed. As a truly honest assessment, this team just doesn't have it... would anyone disagree?

If that's the case, and you look at this, and say... this just isn't going to be our year, then you do everything in your power, to ensure maybe next year is. If that includes selling off expiring UFA's, and other pieces that you don't believe will be part of a competitive outfit, that's what should be done... No doubt that in a Toronto market, that would take a pretty big set of kahunas... You can take those pieces that you get, and either use these picks/prospects for your future, or leverage them to obtain the pieces that you DO think will help.

We need to be better defensively. We need more physicality and size. We need more speed. We need more secondary scoring. We may need a new 2C... a new 3C... a new 2D...

That's a lot... one heck of a shopping list really.

It's probably true, that we wouldn't do this... but, should we?

Not sure I see the upside in throwing in the towel on the season personally. The team obviously has some problems; I believe we all recognize that, but despite that they are potentially as little as 4 points back of home ice in the playoffs. Goaltending has been good lately, if 2023 goaltending hadn’t been so rocky, maybe we would already be 2nd in the Atlantic right now. This said, again, I agree our team has issues.

Funny thing is though that we kind of arrive in the same place just taking different reasoning to get there. I actually would support trading at least Brodie & Bertuzzi. Probably Domi as well. Not to be sellers and pocket assets for the summer however, but to then be buyers and re-use those assets now (with additional if justified) on players with some term beyond the end of 2023-24 who can help us more now in areas of greatest need.

I actually don’t think subtracting any of the 3 players cited and re-jigging the lineup with existing internal options changes our playoff fortunes much, but the assets from moving them could help us add pieces of the puzzle for this year and beyond at the TDL. A steady PK defenseman, good two way bottom 6 forward (ideally a 3c) would help us a lot. To name a couple possible things they could do without selling the farm.

Obviously not everything can be fixed in season, and we wouldn’t want to see the assets we’d have to spend to even try, but I think shipping some expiring assets out to address some of those needs gives us better playoff chances and makes a ton of sense. Not that I expect anything like this actually be done.

At the end of the day, our 3 best players will never be as “affordable” as they are right now, looking past this season would be a mistake as I see it.

 

[rumman]

""

Hard pass on the Hotdog King returning……..

 

[Dreakmur]

Perfect bottom psiring D man in my opinion……

This line of discussion started when someone posted that they would rather acquire someone like Benoit over Parayko. Compared to Parayko, Benoit is bad.

 

[Sypher04]

Re: Parayko and how he ages.

People aren’t going to like this, but if you think he can play top pair for even 4 more years and he’s available at a remotely reasonable cost you make the deal.

Our window is 4 more years beyond this one. If we don’t win then, we probably are not going to. Not impossible and obviously you don’t disregard beyond the 4 window, but you’re building now for those 4 years.

Also keep in mind at 6.5M, probably a cap over $100M and with a Modified NTC in the final two years allowing 17 teams we could move him to, we would not be stuck with him if he tails off and we think our window is still open

 

[ULF_55]

Oilers and Canucks ready to deal 1st. round picks?

Not sure how good those picks will be, but certainly that probably makes sense for them.

 

[Buds17]

While I fully agree with your assessment, I don't particularly see the situations as that different. Two teams with very competitive rosters, who, as you point out, for very different reasons, just don't appear to be competitive enough that year. When we look at where we are as a team, I think most agree that this team just has too many holes, to really succeed. As a truly honest assessment, this team just doesn't have it... would anyone disagree?

If that's the case, and you look at this, and say... this just isn't going to be our year, then you do everything in your power, to ensure maybe next year is. If that includes selling off expiring UFA's, and other pieces that you don't believe will be part of a competitive outfit, that's what should be done... No doubt that in a Toronto market, that would take a pretty big set of kahunas... You can take those pieces that you get, and either use these picks/prospects for your future, or leverage them to obtain the pieces that you DO think will help.

We need to be better defensively. We need more physicality and size. We need more speed. We need more secondary scoring. We may need a new 2C... a new 3C... a new 2D...

That's a lot... one heck of a shopping list really.

It's probably true, that we wouldn't do this... but, should we?

What happens if we aren't much better next year, or if the teams we're competing with stay or become increasingly competitive and we essentially don't gain any ground? A team's situation has to be relative to what is happening within its competition. For every Boston or Florida that seems to be pulling away, there is a Tampa that can hopefully be surpassed (not to mention a DET or teams in the Metro that can be warded off).

I wouldn't like to "sell" from a team that can/should? make the playoffs but I also wouldn't look to heavily invest as a "buyer" for a team that might be starting on the road (or as a WC) either.

 

[MarMarSab3]

No, I mean Benoit.

Where has Benoit been bad? He has been close to terrific

 

[Dreakmur]

Where has Benoit been bad? He has been close to terrific

There really should be a check box on every post to confirm you understand the context of the post you are quoting.

 

[ULF_55]

Cam Fowler

Report #1​

Nov. 12, 2023 (Updated Nov. 14, 2023)
Contract: $52,000,000 over 8 years (Cap hit: $6,500,000)
Position scouted: Left Defense
Age when scouted: 31
87
P1
Projection: First Pair
Trending: Under NHL Contract

Continues to play a ton of minutes in all situations.
Averaging 24:12 TOI through the first 14GP
Excellent skater. Leans 2-way/Transitional 'D'.
Quarterbacks one of the PP units. Distributor more than shooter.
Matches up against top end opponents.
More committed, and organized, look to his game defensively.
Not overly physical. A bumper at most. Gets in the lane to block shots.
Credited with 5 hits and 27 shot blocks in the 14GP.

 

[Fogelhund]

Not sure I see the upside in throwing in the towel on the season personally. The team obviously has some problems; I believe we all recognize that, but despite that they are potentially as little as 4 points back of home ice in the playoffs. Goaltending has been good lately, if 2023 goaltending hadn’t been so rocky, maybe we would already be 2nd in the Atlantic right now. This said, again, I agree our team has issues.

Funny thing is though that we kind of arrive in the same place just taking different reasoning to get there. I actually would support trading at least Brodie & Bertuzzi. Probably Domi as well. Not to be sellers and pocket assets for the summer however, but to then be buyers and re-use those assets now (with additional if justified) on players with some term beyond the end of 2023-24 who can help us more now in areas of greatest need.

I actually don’t think subtracting any of the 3 players cited and re-jigging the lineup with existing internal options changes our playoff fortunes much, but the assets from moving them could help us add pieces of the puzzle for this year and beyond at the TDL. A steady PK defenseman, good two way bottom 6 forward (ideally a 3c) would help us a lot. To name a couple possible things they could do without selling the farm.

Obviously not everything can be fixed in season, and we wouldn’t want to see the assets we’d have to spend to even try, but I think shipping some expiring assets out to address some of those needs gives us better playoff chances and makes a ton of sense. Not that I expect anything like this actually be done.

At the end of the day, our 3 best players will never be as “affordable” as they are right now, looking past this season would be a mistake as I see it.

If you can make the changes you want in season, that's great. At least you try and target the types of players that you want, to see if that's feasible.

That being said, how aggressive do you pursue these moves, when there will likely be a number of UFA's available, that could fill such positions, without giving up assets... kind of a win/win.

You know, if you can obtain the guys you want, without a great net cost from the guys you send out... sure. But you can't give away all of your futures to do so, when you might be able to fill those positions in free agency.

 

[rumman]

If you can make the changes you want in season, that's great. At least you try and target the types of players that you want, to see if that's feasible.

That being said, how aggressive do you pursue these moves, when there will likely be a number of UFA's available, that could fill such positions, without giving up assets... kind of a win/win.

You know, if you can obtain the guys you want, without a great net cost from the guys you send out... sure. But you can't give away all of your futures to do so, when you might be able to fill those positions in free agency.

Wish someone would have told that to the former GM, it would have come in handy about right now………

 

[Sypher04]

If you can make the changes you want in season, that's great. At least you try and target the types of players that you want, to see if that's feasible.

That being said, how aggressive do you pursue these moves, when there will likely be a number of UFA's available, that could fill such positions, without giving up assets... kind of a win/win.

You know, if you can obtain the guys you want, without a great net cost from the guys you send out... sure. But you can't give away all of your futures to do so, when you might be able to fill those positions in free agency.

I agree, but I would say, next year especially, due to cap squeeze of 34 and 88 extensions coming onto the books, negotiations for UFA difference makers might not be especially kind to us. Players are likely going to have to leave money on the table to come here. I'm mainly thinking in regards to the backend and top 4 D.

Hybrid approach is what I'd like. Go out and get a top 4 now to help this year and beyond. And then fill the other 1-2 Top 4 spots we ideally need in UFA if you can.

 

[SprDaVE]

Cam Fowler

Report #1​

Nov. 12, 2023 (Updated Nov. 14, 2023)
Contract: $52,000,000 over 8 years (Cap hit: $6,500,000)
Position scouted: Left Defense
Age when scouted: 31
87
P1
Projection: First Pair
Trending: Under NHL Contract

Continues to play a ton of minutes in all situations.
Averaging 24:12 TOI through the first 14GP
Excellent skater. Leans 2-way/Transitional 'D'.
Quarterbacks one of the PP units. Distributor more than shooter.
Matches up against top end opponents.
More committed, and organized, look to his game defensively.
Not overly physical. A bumper at most. Gets in the lane to block shots.
Credited with 5 hits and 27 shot blocks in the 14GP.

He's a lefty but I believe he can play RD pretty well. He would add a lot of skating ability from the back end. He's basically Morgan Rielly in terms of style. I wonder how'd he do on a much better team because he hasn't really performed all that well in recent years, but he does play a ton of minutes similar to Parayko.

Not sure the fit is good and it doesn't seem like he's on the trade block but I do think Fowler is kind of a forgotten name out there.

 

[Dekes For Days]

While I fully agree with your assessment, I don't particularly see the situations as that different. Two teams with very competitive rosters, who, as you point out, for very different reasons, just don't appear to be competitive enough that year. When we look at where we are as a team, I think most agree that this team just has too many holes, to really succeed. As a truly honest assessment, this team just doesn't have it... would anyone disagree?

We're certainly a worse team than we've been in quite a while, and it will be harder to win, but that doesn't make it impossible. Good teams can still get great outcomes over ~25 game samples, and people still really don't seem to get how much else factors in to playoff outcomes. Many teams have won when not at their recent historical peak.

Selling off a couple expiring pieces when one of your best players is out for the year and you're pacing for 85 points is very different from selling when your best players are healthy and you're still pacing for over 100 points. We can be disappointed that this year has been screwed up so much from what could have been, but that doesn't mean it's right to throw in the towel in the middle of our core's primes.

I wouldn't throw a ton of assets at this year, but we shouldn't and are not going to give up on it.

 

[horner]

This line of discussion started when someone posted that they would rather acquire someone like Benoit over Parayko. Compared to Parayko, Benoit is bad.

Parayko yrs and cap hit are bad

Benoit's isn't

 

[ULF_55]

He's a lefty but I believe he can play RD pretty well. He would add a lot of skating ability from the back end. He's basically Morgan Rielly in terms of style. I wonder how'd he do on a much better team because he hasn't really performed all that well in recent years, but he does play a ton of minutes similar to Parayko.

Not sure the fit is good and it doesn't seem like he's on the trade block but I do think Fowler is kind of a forgotten name out there.

I think everyone over 30 should be on their trade block.

Just turned 32, under contract for another 2 years.

The scouting report from November still has him as a 1st. pairing, and 6.5mm is big for a 2nd. pairing, but if you had
Rielly-?
Fowler -?

Both can handle 22-24 minutes per game, which means your 3rd. pairing only need handle 15 minutes a night.

Only question is ... who are the ?

 

[SprDaVE]

I think everyone over 30 should be on their trade block.

Just turned 32, under contract for another 2 years.

The scouting report from November still has him as a 1st. pairing, and 6.5mm is big for a 2nd. pairing, but if you had
Rielly-?
Fowler -?

Both can handle 22-24 minutes per game, which means your 3rd. pairing only need handle 15 minutes a night.

Only question is ... who are the ?

He's by default a 1st pairing defenseman because that team sucks. I think he'd be a boost to our pairings for sure, but the price to acquire might be a lot more than we expect.

 

[ULF_55]

He's by default a 1st pairing defenseman because that team sucks. I think he'd be boost our pairings for sure here, but the price to acquire might be a lot more than we expect.

Especially, if competing against teams offering up 1st. round picks.

Kuzmenko, Zadorov, 1st. for $$$$ticket item?

 

[Dreakmur]

Parayko yrs and cap hit are bad

Benoit's isn't

Even if that was true, you still missed all the context….

 

[Mckay]

Hard pass on the Hotdog King returning……..

Steve Simmons only contribution to the world is this meme.

 

[Fogelhund]

Some UFA D targets in order of attractiveness to me...

1. Forsling LD
2. DeMelo RD
3. Tanev RD
3. Seeler LD/RD

Trade target, in order of attractiveness

1. Larsson RD
2. Gudas RD
3. Parayko RD
4. Tanev RD

I think you've got to make a move, for one of the guys listed in the trade target, as a future partner for Rielly. Both Larsson and Gudas are on $4 mil contracts.... their play style and contract values make them very attractive targets. Whether they are available, and would want to play here are different stories, but in a vacuum, that's where I'd start. Gudas age is a bit of an issue though.

Parayko has a longer contract, at $6.5 mil, and would limit our ability to sign a quality UFA for the second pairing, his analytics have been declining for years, though there are those that believe some of that is a decline in the team. The eye test suggests he's played better this year, after recovering from back injuries that degraded his play a couple of years ago. $6.5 for six years plus this year, is both good, and bad... if his play quality continues through much of the contract, $6.5 will be a bargain in a few years... if his play drops, it's an albatross.

Tanev is interesting... I mean it's going to be a cost to get him, apparently more than we are willing to pay at the current time. His play style should compliment Mo, and he's played very well the last few years, and been injury free... where with Vancouver he was constantly injured. How much will he ask for? A raise? Much? He's at $4.5 mil now... much of a raise again impairs our ability to find a second pairing player.


Second pairing...

If somehow Florida can't come to terms with Forsling, you have to be in on it. He'd be a quality addition. DeMelo is my second favourite UFA...

So my D would look like this.

Mo Larsson/Gudas/Parayko/Tanev
Forsling/McCabe McCabe/DeMelo/Liljegren
Benoit McCabe/Liljegren

 

[Dreakmur]

Some UFA D targets in order of attractiveness to me...

1. Forsling LD
2. DeMelo RD
3. Tanev RD
3. Seeler LD/RD

Trade target, in order of attractiveness

1. Larsson RD
2. Gudas RD
3. Parayko RD
4. Tanev RD

I think you've got to make a move, for one of the guys listed in the trade target, as a future partner for Rielly. Both Larsson and Gudas are on $4 mil contracts.... their play style and contract values make them very attractive targets. Whether they are available, and would want to play here are different stories, but in a vacuum, that's where I'd start. Gudas age is a bit of an issue though.

Parayko has a longer contract, at $6.5 mil, and would limit our ability to sign a quality UFA for the second pairing, his analytics have been declining for years, though there are those that believe some of that is a decline in the team. The eye test suggests he's played better this year, after recovering from back injuries that degraded his play a couple of years ago. $6.5 for six years plus this year, is both good, and bad... if his play quality continues through much of the contract, $6.5 will be a bargain in a few years... if his play drops, it's an albatross.

Tanev is interesting... I mean it's going to be a cost to get him, apparently more than we are willing to pay at the current time. His play style should compliment Mo, and he's played very well the last few years, and been injury free... where with Vancouver he was constantly injured. How much will he ask for? A raise? Much? He's at $4.5 mil now... much of a raise again impairs our ability to find a second pairing player.


Second pairing...

If somehow Florida can't come to terms with Forsling, you have to be in on it. He'd be a quality addition. DeMelo is my second favourite UFA...

So my D would look like this.

Mo Larsson/Gudas/Parayko/Tanev
Forsling/McCabe McCabe/DeMelo/Liljegren
Benoit McCabe/Liljegren

Noah Hanifin and Brady Skjie should be out top UFA targets. We do need RD, but we also need someone to anchor the second pairing.