Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Stephen]

4.89M is pretty much 5M, right? We're talking about 11k, which is peanuts in the cap world. I am not sure why he can't have that same level of trajectory either.

If his trajectory keeps going up, he's not going to be a 4-5M player anymore, he will be 6-7M in 2-3 years, if not more if he starts producing more. Lindell signed a 6 years 5.8M AAV contract in 2019 and his highest point totals at that point was 32 points, something he never reached again since signing his deal. He's still a great defender because of his 2-way ability. This is the kind of contract that Liljegren should get now instead of having to give a 27 year old UFA Liljegren an extension.

If you're not willing to pay that kind of player a little more for a few more years, you're gonna have a hard time finding equivalent players. But it's clear you're not much of a fan and I cannot disagree more with that kind of assessment.

My feeling is Rasmus Andersson is the closest thing he can become on your list of comparisons but Lily also misses most of the snarly personality, physical game ingredients that makes Andersson stand out and his offense is below Andersson's offense, which isn't unique. So he's not actually Rasmus Andersson (yet?) But build, skating, lateral mobility, puck handling skills, general two way contribution I could see some of it.

Just running the math on that premise what the AAV and cap percentage would line up to, but like I said, I'm closer to the $4 million ceiling than suggesting that $4.89 million is okay. Not for me, and I don't think that would be the ask either. Pay him short term, keep the rights and wait and see.

I like Liljegren okay. Been following him since the big Patrick-Liljegren hype train for the 2017 draft previews and thought we got a steal. After a slow development curve he's come up and grown into a competitor for us after it seemed like Sandin took his role on the depth chart. Love to see him continue to play a role. I am not seeing why Theodore, Cernak, Zub, Pelech, Skjei were referenced though. Those guys aren't building up a case for a $7 million man in Liljegren in 2026.

I'm frankly not seeing the trajectory Liljegren is currently on where he goes from $1.4 million contract today to $7 million in 2 years. You mentioned 2019 Shea Theodore as a case of catch a player before he skyrockets, but he was right at the cusp of 40 points and generating lots of offense in the playoffs. Liljegren's offense is pretty flat year to year since 2021-22.

Liljegren's been in Leaf orbit for nearly 7 years as a drafted prospect, minor leaguer and player. I don't think this the moment where we need to hand out the Zaitsev contract and lock up something that's about to skyrocket momentarily.

 

[SprDaVE]

My feeling is Rasmus Andersson is the closest thing he can become on your list of comparisons but Lily also misses most of the snarly personality, physical game ingredients that makes Andersson stand out and his offense is below Andersson's offense, which isn't unique. So he's not actually Rasmus Andersson (yet?) But build, skating, lateral mobility, puck handling skills, general two way contribution I could see some of it.

Just running the math on that premise what the AAV and cap percentage would line up to, but like I said, I'm closer to the $4 million ceiling than suggesting that $4.89 million is okay. Not for me, and I don't think that would be the ask either. Pay him short term, keep the rights and wait and see.

I like Liljegren okay. Been following him since the big Patrick-Liljegren hype train for the 2017 draft previews and thought we got a steal. After a slow development curve he's come up and grown into a competitor for us after it seemed like Sandin took his role on the depth chart. Love to see him continue to play a role. I am not seeing why Theodore, Cernak, Zub, Pelech, Skjei were referenced though. Those guys aren't building up a case for a $7 million man in Liljegren in 2026.

I'm frankly not seeing the trajectory Liljegren is currently on where he goes from $1.4 million contract today to $7 million in 2 years. You mentioned 2019 Shea Theodore as a case of catch a player before he skyrockets, but he was right at the cusp of 40 points and generating lots of offense in the playoffs. Liljegren's offense is pretty flat year to year since 2021-22.

Andersson was not the same player he is today though. He was not more aggressive or physical at all. He was lanky, wasn't great offensively for awhile but fairly good 2-way. He developed and grew into the player that is exceeding his current cap hit, signed by none other than Brad Treliving as well. If Andersson was signed to a 2-3 year deal when he was a 20 point player, he'd playing on a 6M+ contract as we speak. He went from his ELC to his current contract. That's the entire point of this entire discussion.

Those players were referenced because they were similarly aged players with similar valued skillsets that got extended for pretty much what I think Liljegren should get on a longer term deal. Some were better, some were worst. Most developed into exceeding their current contract value.

Liljegren potentially might not be worth a ton in 3 years. I don't have a crystal ball. The big point is that he can be though and he's improved a lot over the last couple years. And this is where risk reward needs to be applied. You're banking on a player improving and then you have a player exceed his cap hit instead of paying his current worth every few years.

 

[notdoneyet]

I have a hard time seeing Liljegren at $5 million as a steal in 2 years.

Currently, a $5 million AAV among defensemen would put him at 60th, which means he's clear cut number 2 defenseman. Something Brodie has been for a number of years and Brodie's current cap hit. Let's say with contracts expiring ahead of him and new contracts coming up drops him down to 75th on the list. Is he an upper tier Number 3 defenseman starting next year?

I'd be more comfortable giving him Jake McCabe type money, like ceiling of $4 million. Term unknown. Not like his development has ever taken huge sudden jumps before either.

Lilly hasn’t proven he is a top 4 dman.

 

[Stephen]

I really don't think you watched much of Andersson if you think he was the same player he is today. He was not more aggressive or physical at all. He was lanky and fairly good 2-way but nothing like he's been in recent years. He developed and grew into the player that is exceed his current cap hit, signed by none other than Brad Treliving as well.

Those players were referenced because they are or were similarly aged players with similar valued skillsets that got extended for pretty much what I think Liljegren should get on a longer term deal.

Liljegren potentially might not be worth a ton in 3 years. I don't have a crystal ball. He can be though and he's improved a lot over the last couple years. And this is where risk reward needs to be applied. You're banking on a player improving and then you have a player exceed his cap hit. If you always extend players for 2-3 years, you never have a player exceeding their cap hit and you have to pay the player more than if you had taken the small risk of giving them more money with term. This is what good GMs do.

I actually don't watch a lot of Andersson today. Most of my watching was from the North Division in 2021 when he was already on this contract and more or less doing the same thing... coincidentally the same age as Lily is now.

I don't think Liljegren is ever going break the bank for you. Over the next 2 years I just expect him to be the RHD nice guy version of Jake McCabe which is why $4 million is more than fine. And if not he's a solid piece that can get you something different.

The whole Andersson extrapolation is based on the player Liljegren most resembles out of your list. He's got a similar stocky build, has good mobility and can handle a puck in 200 feet like Andersson, but at some point the comparisons end. Andersson's developed a bit more offense. Nothing to brag about but it's there. He's also a prick of a competitor and Liljegren isn't. So we should pay extra because?

At this rate we could just sign Liljegren to a cheaper contract over the next two years and then give the $7 million to Andersson when he's a UFA. Otherwise this could be a Zaitsev contract.

 

[LeafEgo]

Lily is currently on a 'show me' contract at 1.4M, and expires as RFA. I'm not sure what the bar was set at if he's now earned 5M - he hasn't noticeably improved since he signed. Feels like he's penciled into the program at an upgraded show me contract as it stands - in the mid/high 2's like Bean/Fehervary short term.

 

[Budz]

At this time, the Leafs have 300k of cap space available with a 23 man roster right now. Reaves and Woll are not on LTIR though, so there's a little more cap space after they get those players back and send down other players.

If the Leafs are completely healthy, with their current LTIR players (Klingberg, Muzzin, Murray), Leafs should have 2M in cap space with a 23 player roster. That can grow up to around 3.5-4M if they go with a 20 player roster (something they probably won't do). This also changes depending on Samsonov. It's a mess really with a lot of variables.

Fair.

Thanks for that.

 

[-DeMo-]

on Liljegren I'm surprised to see some go 5 million. I was thinking like 3x2.5-3 type of deal maybe 3.5x4 but I don't believe we've seen a consistent enough job from Lilly to get a 5 million dollar contract. especially imo when you need 2 other top 4 Dmen. if we could find those 2 others that 3 year window might be enough for Niemala to work his way up to a top 4 spot and we could move on from Lilly if he gets to expensive beyond that.

 

[arso40]

on Liljegren I'm surprised to see some go 5 million. I was thinking like 3x2.5-3 type of deal maybe 3.5x4 but I don't believe we've seen a consistent enough job from Lilly to get a 5 million dollar contract. especially imo when you need 2 other top 4 Dmen. if we could find those 2 others that 3 year window might be enough for Niemala to work his way up to a top 4 spot and we could move on from Lilly if he gets to expensive beyond that.

In order to bridge him we would be risking him breaking out and having to trade him or pay him more than we need to when rielly got the 5 mill don’t think he deserved it

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I’d give Liljegren a 3 x $3.25 or 4 x $3.75

Something like that

 

[arso40]

Lilly hasn’t proven he is a top 4 dman.

You realize he’s a top 3 dman for us to right ?? How is he not I kno he doesn’t have a long resume doing it but he’s absolutely been a top 4 dman this year what are you smoking on

I’d give Liljegren a 3 x $3.25 or 4 x $3.75

Something like that

Sure if you want to pay more sure

 

[Dreakmur]

You realize he’s a top 3 dman for us to right ?? How is he not I kno he doesn’t have a long resume doing it but he’s absolutely been a top 4 dman this year what are you smoking on

You realize our defense core is weak, right? Guys like Liljegren playing higher in the lineup than they should is one of the reasons for that.

Liljegren is sometimes a solid #4. Sometimes he isn’t.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Is Kaliyev somebody worth checking in on? Seems to be an odd man out.

They seem to be ruining a lot of their prospects, should try and get him before hes toast

 

[arso40]

You realize our defense core is weak, right? Guys like Liljegren playing higher in the lineup than they should is one of the reasons for that.

Liljegren is sometimes a solid #4. Sometimes he isn’t.

He’s a solid 4 period I’m not even asking you on that and he’s carrying around gio there’s a reason they split him and mccabe yet there usually number 2 , 3 in ice time on the bacc end

 

[arso40]

He’s a solid 4 period I’m not even asking you on that and he’s carrying around gio there’s a reason they split him and mccabe yet there usually number 2 , 3 in ice time on the bacc end

And if you still think brodies a better impact defender your insane rielly then mccabe or lily you can re order the last two however that’s why it’s paramount we get rielly a defence partner cause with Brodie in the top 4 we need work better yet he shouldn’t even be on this team

 

[arso40]

I just can’t help but feel like tre knows they need something to stabilize the third line even with Robertson scratched they got hemmed in it’s clearly not jarnkrok so I think they kno they need a defensive center to relieve domi

 

[Jacquestrapless]

I just can’t help but feel like tre knows they need something to stabilize the third line even with Robertson scratched they got hemmed in it’s clearly not jarnkrok so I think they kno they need a defensive center to relieve domi

you're not wrong. Keefe plays the fourth line more than the third.

Just a cursory skim at teams that may not make the playoffs reveals a lack of 3Cs

Luke Kunin
Jason Dickinson
Lars Eller
Adam Henrique
Alex Wennberg

The latter 2 likely need retention

There's also Backlund but next contract is rather high for a 3C

Slim pickings

 

[arso40]

you're not wrong. Keefe plays the fourth line more than the third.

Just a cursory skim at teams that may not make the playoffs reveals a lack of 3Cs

Luke Kunin
Jason Dickinson
Lars Eller
Adam Henrique
Alex Wennberg

The latter 2 likely need retention

There's also Backlund but next contract is rather high for a 3C

Slim pickings

Not sure how wennberg has been this year but he’s usually a very good 3c

 

[Dreakmur]

He’s a solid 4 period I’m not even asking you on that and he’s carrying around gio there’s a reason they split him and mccabe yet there usually number 2 , 3 in ice time on the bacc end

Liljegren has been our second best defenseman this year, and that’s a huge problem. He’s had streaks of being a solid #4, but he also has streaks where he looks like a #5/6.

I’d actually be fine if Liljegren was out full time #4. Same for Brodie or McCabe. The problem is that all 3 of them are in our top-4, when none of them is better than a #4.

 

[Dreakmur]

you're not wrong. Keefe plays the fourth line more than the third.

If he consistently plays the 4th line more than the 3rd, then we’ve just got them labelled backwards.

 

[TMLAM34]

Liljegren has been our second best defenseman this year, and that’s a huge problem. He’s had streaks of being a solid #4, but he also has streaks where he looks like a #5/6.

I’d actually be fine if Liljegren was out full time #4. Same for Brodie or McCabe. The problem is that all 3 of them are in our top-4, when none of them is better than a #4.

I’d say our top three this season has been Rielly - McCabe - Liljegren. Then it would go Benoit (surprisingly) - Brodie - Giordano - Lagesson - Timmins.

 

[Gallagbi]

In order to bridge him we would be risking him breaking out and having to trade him or pay him more than we need to when rielly got the 5 mill don’t think he deserved it

Giving him $5M is also a risk. Right now he's a middle pairing at best D who can struggle under pressure and it's led him to be scratched in the playoffs.

 

[Kiwi]

I just can’t help but feel like tre knows they need something to stabilize the third line even with Robertson scratched they got hemmed in it’s clearly not jarnkrok so I think they kno they need a defensive center to relieve domi

Lean into what they are instead

The 4th line can do the defensive donkey work so use the 3rd line as a sheltered offensive line

Give it a purpose and use

 

[Evilhomer]

I just can’t help but feel like tre knows they need something to stabilize the third line even with Robertson scratched they got hemmed in it’s clearly not jarnkrok so I think they kno they need a defensive center to relieve domi

I've been saying for months now that the Leafs will acquire a third line centre. Domi will not be in that spot when the playoffs start. There are lots of options around the league.

 

[TMLAM34]

Domi has been pretty good, I wouldn’t even mind re-signing him to the same dollar value but I also wouldn’t really call him our third line center. He’s averaging less minutes than Kampf.

McBain would be such a nice get to form a real two-way shut down line with Jarnkrok. And then have Domi and Robertson provide that offensive punch from the 4th line.

 

[stickty111]

I think 5 million is a stretch for Liljegren unless his offense explodes. Still a 3.5 million to 4.5 over 5 or 6 years is very reasonable. He's improving and playing like a top 4 d man. Plays both special teams too. He probably won't be a #2, but he's trending towards being a #3. The step is finding a regular spot in the playoffs. Don't add a d man that pushes him down. Add a d man that pushes Brodie down. On that note, they should try Liljegren and Brodie together eventually. That pair would be tough to beat in transition.