Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[rumman]

why not, waive Brodie...........


I think Brodie is a top 6 defender.

Sure, in the AHL maybe………

 

[arso40]

Liljegren at a $5 million over 6 year deal feels proportionately very high for a non breakout, non statistically flashy, not a second contract young stud, not a veteran defensive stalwart like Brodie was up until recently.

Like $4 million feels more grounded. 2-3 years, pay as you go?

I’d try 8 years at 5 will be a steal in 2 years

 

[Stephen]

I’d try 8 years at 5 will be a steal in 2 years

I have a hard time seeing Liljegren at $5 million as a steal in 2 years.

Currently, a $5 million AAV among defensemen would put him at 60th, which means he's clear cut number 2 defenseman. Something Brodie has been for a number of years and Brodie's current cap hit. Let's say with contracts expiring ahead of him and new contracts coming up drops him down to 75th on the list. Is he an upper tier Number 3 defenseman starting next year?

I'd be more comfortable giving him Jake McCabe type money, like ceiling of $4 million. Term unknown. Not like his development has ever taken huge sudden jumps before either.

 

[SprDaVE]

Liljegren at a $5 million over 6 year deal feels proportionately very high for a non breakout, non statistically flashy, not a second contract young stud, not a veteran defensive stalwart like Brodie was up until recently.

Like $4 million feels more grounded. 2-3 years, pay as you go?

I am putting his impact at Theodore (at the time he signed a few years back), Zub, Andersson, Cernak, Skjei, Pelech, etc... basically mid pairing with potential to grow into top 2-3 minutes. We have to look at the cap hit percentage, not just pure cap hit. Cernak in particular got over 5M this past off-season and never scored 20 points in his career.

4M for 2-3 years is fine, but 1 million more to gain a few more years of term is a ton better. I think he's got potential to grow into a very good 2-way defenseman that plays a lot of important minutes. I'd lock him up through his prime, and not have to give him another big raise in 2-3 years.

At some point it's important to lock up your players before they completely break out. Liljegren is that player for me. I'm tired of doing these short-term deals that really screw us over long-term. It's a calculated risk.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Liljegren's stats this year aren't anything crazy, you could probably do something like 4 years at 2.875M

He's been scratched at times in the playoffs. Also open to using him in a trade for a defenseman too.

 

[ULF_55]

Liljegren's stats this year aren't anything crazy, you could probably do something like 4 years at 2.875M

He's been scratched at times in the playoffs. Also open to using him in a trade for a defenseman too.

I'm not sure he's 100% after the High Ankle Sprain.

Doesn't look on to me.

 

[Stephen]

I am putting his impact at Theodore (at the time he signed a few years back), Zub, Andersson, Cernak, Skjei, Pelech, etc... basically mid pairing with potential to grow into top 2-3 minutes. We have to look at the cap hit percentage, not just pure cap hit. Cernak in particular got over 5M this past off-season and never scored 20 points in his career.

4M for 2-3 years is fine, but 1 million more to gain a few more years of term is a ton better. I think he's got potential to grow into a very good 2-way defenseman that plays a lot of important minutes. I'd lock him up through his prime, and not have to give him another big raise in 2-3 years.

At some point it's important to lock up your players before they completely break out. Liljegren is that player for me. I'm tired of doing these short-term deals that really screw us over long-term. It's a calculated risk.

Oh ok, yeah I don't value Liljegren quite the same way you do or think he'll escalate quite like that...

Rasmus Andersson is the closest example in terms of build, mobility, though Andersson has more developed offense and is a lot meaner in the personality department and way more willing to mix it up.

He signed for 5.58% of cap in 2021 over 6 years. At $87.7 million cap this summer, that would come in at $4.89 million.

No, I still don't like it. His lack of pop in all aspects of the game isn't that attractive to me. I don't see his value skyrocketing like that we need to pay early. I'm just paying as you go on a 2-3 year deal and trying to spend the bulk of the Brodie and Klingberg money on as many high quality D as possible between Rielly and Lily.

 

[Stephen]

Liljegren's stats this year aren't anything crazy, you could probably do something like 4 years at 2.875M

He's been scratched at times in the playoffs. Also open to using him in a trade for a defenseman too.

That solution feels more comfortable to me. Like if we lock him up to something shorter term, affordable, we reserve the right to trade him for a similar age defenseman with stronger attributes, maybe better overall player, but add a high pick, another prospect, etc.

Lily can be here for many years, I see it. But definitely not counting on him in the building block category. Just a difference in valuation I suppose, no biggie.

 

[TMLAM34]

I think a good number for both sides would be 6 years at 4 million per. I like Liljegren and hope we can extend him but at the same time he hasn’t really excelled at anything specifically. He’s alright offensively and he’s pretty good defensively but he’s not really good at either. He’s shown flashes of being a #4 defenceman and he’s shown at times flashes of being a #5 defenceman. Might be a slight overpayment next year but ideally he becomes a mainstay on the second pair and is worth or exceeds the 4 million mark by year 3 of that contract.

 

[Menzinger]

if were talking roster salary right now what do people think these RFA's will likely sign for?

Benoit, Gregor, Robertson, and Liljegren?

The first two around 1 mil per at most, probably a bit less. Robertson well under 2 mil short term.

Lily will depend if they pinch again for cheap short term deal or find a compromise on a medium term deal. But he's not going to be in much of a position to ask for a major raise

 

[Legion34]

Still ended up being a fine trade for both teams. Got great years out of Muzzin before injuries hit him. Man I miss him. Need another Muzzin on this team.
LA got Durzi, good player who was shipped out. Grundstorm is a 3rd liner. Bjonfort is young still but now on waivers.
Both teams should have no issues on the trade

La has basically grundstrom and a 2

 

[BertCorbeau]

Lily’s the kind of d-man you try to get on a lower AAV with term IMO

 

[stickty111]

I'll take Durzi, thanks; Grundstrom also would look quite nice in the bottom 6 right now, as well.

A RD was needed at the time (still is, 4 years later), and they got another lefty... okay.

I don't want an offensive d man whose terrible defensively, thanks; Lets not go after the D core saying we need to be better defensively, but also want Durzi back.
Grundstorm isn't all that special. Muzzin was exactly what they needed.
They got the best d man available at that time. Only Babcock kind of thinking it's a questionable move.
Both teams like the trade. Leafs have no regrets over that trade

 

[Menzinger]

I wonder what Brodie would cost to extend in a two year deal. Not having a great season but if he'd drop down 2-3 mil it's at least worth considering

 

[Buds17]

Liljegren's stats this year aren't anything crazy, you could probably do something like 4 years at 2.875M

He's been scratched at times in the playoffs. Also open to using him in a trade for a defenseman too.

I'd be thrilled with this.

 

[Legion34]

I am one of the biggest Lilly fans here and those numbers seem completely nuts

 

[Buds17]

I wonder what Brodie would cost to extend in a two year deal. Not having a great season but if he'd drop down 2-3 mil it's at least worth considering

On the one hand, I might prefer to see us move on from the blueline's UFAs just to provide the group with some new faces and a different look. Conversely, I'd also have to hope that a couple of potential upgrades do in fact make it to free agency. You make a fair point.

 

[Budz]

How much LTIR space do we have?

 

[SprDaVE]

Oh ok, yeah I don't value Liljegren quite the same way you do or think he'll escalate quite like that...

Rasmus Andersson is the closest example in terms of build, mobility, though Andersson has more developed offense and is a lot meaner in the personality department and way more willing to mix it up.

He signed for 5.58% of cap in 2021 over 6 years. At $87.7 million cap this summer, that would come in at $4.89 million.

No, I still don't like it. His lack of pop in all aspects of the game isn't that attractive to me. I don't see his value skyrocketing like that we need to pay early. I'm just paying as you go on a 2-3 year deal and trying to spend the bulk of the Brodie and Klingberg money on as many high quality D as possible between Rielly and Lily.

Andersson at the time of his signing was not the same player he was years into his contract. He was a ~20 point player playing similar minutes as Liljegren... the 2nd and 3rd year of his current 4.55M contract he put up 50 points. Imagine if Treliving had given Andersson a 2-3 year deal instead of 6? He'd be on a new contract right now, probably worth well over 7M. Risk reward.

Another example -- Lindell signed a 6 years 5.8M AAV contract in 2019 and his highest point totals at that point was 32 points, something he never reached again since signing his deal. He's still a good defender because of his 2-way ability.

4.89M is pretty much 5M, right? We're talking about 11k, which is peanuts in the cap world. I am not sure why he can't have that same level of trajectory either. If his trajectory keeps going up, he's not going to be a 4-5M player anymore, he will be 6-7M in 2-3 years, if not more if he starts producing more. If you're not willing to pay that kind of player a little more for a few more years, you're gonna have a hard time finding equivalent players. But it's clear you're not much of a fan and I cannot disagree more with that kind of assessment.

 

[ULF_55]

Sure, in the AHL maybe………

Top 6, means 3rd. pairing. He's still that, and some nights better.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I wonder what Brodie would cost to extend in a two year deal. Not having a great season but if he'd drop down 2-3 mil it's at least worth considering

With Gio walking, Brodie is nice vet insurance. Given his wife’s health i bet he’d take a good discount to stay for 2 more years at a good discount. Not to mention he’s had a hard year with his dad’s passing so he could rebound a bit with some stability.

 

[arso40]

I have a hard time seeing Liljegren at $5 million as a steal in 2 years.

Currently, a $5 million AAV among defensemen would put him at 60th, which means he's clear cut number 2 defenseman. Something Brodie has been for a number of years and Brodie's current cap hit. Let's say with contracts expiring ahead of him and new contracts coming up drops him down to 75th on the list. Is he an upper tier Number 3 defenseman starting next year?

I'd be more comfortable giving him Jake McCabe type money, like ceiling of $4 million. Term unknown. Not like his development has ever taken huge sudden jumps before either.

You have to pay for the term unless your short term thinking with him but then when he has the break out year we’re complaining about the same thing we always complain about cause we’re not thinking future on these deals

 

[MarMarSab3]

With Gio walking, Brodie is nice vet insurance. Given his wife’s health i bet he’d take a good discount to stay for 2 more years at a good discount. Not to mention he’s had a hard year with his dad’s passing so he could rebound a bit with some stability.

Ideally next year it's.....

Reilly (Demelo)
(Skjei) Liljegren
Benoit McCabe
Lagesson

2 of Pesce, Skjei, Demelo, Tanev, Hanifin

 

[SprDaVE]

How much LTIR space do we have?

At this time, the Leafs have 300k of cap space available with a 23 man roster right now. Reaves and Woll are not on LTIR though, so there's a little more cap space after they get those players back and send down other players.

If the Leafs are completely healthy, with their current LTIR players (Klingberg, Muzzin, Murray), Leafs should have 2M in cap space with a 23 player roster. That can grow up to around 3.5-4M if they go with a 20 player roster (something they probably won't do). This also changes depending on Samsonov. It's a mess really with a lot of variables.

 

[Kiwi]

I wonder what Brodie would cost to extend in a two year deal. Not having a great season but if he'd drop down 2-3 mil it's at least worth considering

I'd keep him
He's a good solid defensive player who can kill a penalty and babysit a puck mover

I don't want an offensive d man whose terrible defensively, thanks; Lets not go after the D core saying we need to be better defensively, but also want Durzi back.
Grundstorm isn't all that special. Muzzin was exactly what they needed.
They got the best d man available at that time. Only Babcock kind of thinking it's a questionable move.
Both teams like the trade. Leafs have no regrets over that trade

I'd happily have Durzi back, I like his puck moving ability and we need a PP QB for the 2nd unit if Timmins continues to struggle

I'd do the Muzzin trade again but I think Durzi would be useful right now