Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[Kiwi]

We’ve been doing the same thing for 20 years bud
Nowhere closer today to winning

I’m not saying don’t make the playoffs if u can but selling is a very good idea this year. Def not waste assets in this team

If it was up to me I'd be seriously tempted to sell and retool as well but I'm not the one losing millions of dollars in revenue from not making the playoffs either

 

[barilko05]

Sell what, exactly? AM, MM and JT...ntc. Willie? UFA that won't get us even close to a reasonable return for just that reason. The rest? Cannon fodder essentially that also won't move the needle substantially in trade. I subscribe to the "sink or swim" with what we got this season. No picks dealt off...no selling the farm. Now, the offseason? We evaluate what we have and give this GM a free hand to mould this team properly...with a new coach. Which is what we really need. Shanny can hit the bricks too.

 

[Americanadian]

It's like none of you people have ever had a boss, you don't get to do what you want

You do what your told and if you think MLSE is going to flush playoff revenue down the toilet when the team is comfortably in a playoff spot your insane

Except MLSE isn’t my boss. I am a fan and I shouldn’t be expected to care about their revenues. This is also a fan run forum so I fail to see why we need to worry about MLSE’s balance sheet while discussing trades from a fan POV.

 

[Scion]

I do like how you have to expand their point totals over their total career to try to make your point.

Let's start with age. They're 6 months apart, their aging curve's won't be far off if at all.

As far as "better" hockey player. Reinhart has been close to Nylander's production over the last 3 years yet Reinhart has been a top 5 defensive forward over that period. Nylander has been below replacement level defensively over that period.

Please show me Nylander's elite underlying numbers. Also - please define elite when you provide these numbers.

Nylander has a higher ppg rate than Reinhart this year and over the last three years so I'm not sure what your point is there.

Reinhart is a better defensive forward, but the gap has shrunk this year as demonstrated by their xGA/60 numbers. However, I am not going to harp on this point as Reinhart's rates are legitimately elite and he has maintained them for several seasons in a row.

Reinhart: 2.19xGA/60
Nylander: 2.65xGA/60

As for what Nylander does at an elite level please refer to the below.

ixG/60: 0.95
iHDCF/60: 2.9
xGF/60: 3.28
HDCF/60: 15.34

All while shooting 9.52% which is half what Reinhart is shooting this year. If you are interested Nylander is also among the very best forwards at various microstats according to Corey Sznajder's tracking data, I just can't post it because it's behind a paywall.

 

[Scion]

Check the numbers.

Calling a winger a top 5 defensive forward is a bit rich... Also you are the one making the claim so the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate that he is indeed a top 5 defensive forward, even though he isn't the top defensive forward on his own line.

 

[Kiwi]

Except MLSE isn’t my boss. I am a fan and I shouldn’t be expected to care about their revenues. This is also a fan run forum so I fail to see why we need to worry about MLSE’s balance sheet while discussing trades from a fan POV.

I don't care

 

[John Mandalorian]

any interest in Josh Manson anymore from Colorado? averaging 19 mins over the last month with Colorado and with Toews extension kicking in at 7.25 Makar at 9 Byram at 3.8 and Girard at 5 million assuming Girard comes back that's alot of money spent on D. he's got two more years at 4.25 wondering if he would be fairly cheap to acquire or have Colorado retain on him. don't really know how well he's doing right now used to be highly regarded shoots right. in that physical defensive defense mold.

Avs fan dropping in. Happened to notice this when it came up in a search.

Manson has a full NTC/NMC at the moment. In June, it becomes a modified clause and he provides a list of teams. If Toronto isn't one of his "do not trade to" teams, this is something that might happen depending on whether the Avs are in a position to juggle salaries. With that in mind, its hard to imagine the Avs retaining, but given the likely motivation for the trade, he might be had for minimal cost.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Byram is my personal top target in the summer. I would start with our 1st + McCabe not sure what else they would want. there competing now so they probably want a bottom pairing guy to replace Bowen.

It's hard to imagine a 1st and McCabe being nearly enough. If the Avs are open to trading Byram, the bids will be substantial as GMs see the same potential. In this scenario, do you see McCabe and a 1st being enough? McCabe as a third pairing add isnt a strong selling point at all. The Avs can get someone in free agency or through their pro scouts.

Also keep in mind, Byram will be one more mouth to feed as he comes up for a contract again in 2025. If he can be the player you're hoping for, its probably a problem you're willing to have. Tavares comes off the books around the samr time, no?

 

[Legion34]

It's hard to imagine a 1st and McCabe being nearly enough. If the Avs are open to trading Byram, the bids will be substantial as GMs see the same potential. In this scenario, do you see McCabe and a 1st being enough? McCabe as a third pairing add isnt a strong selling point at all. The Avs can get someone in free agency or through their pro scouts.

Also keep in mind, Byram will be one more mouth to feed as he comes up for a contract again in 2025. If he can be the player you're hoping for, its probably a problem you're willing to have. Tavares comes off the books around the samr time, no?

Wouldn’t they be looking at a lindholm type for Byram

 

[John Mandalorian]

Wouldn’t they be looking at a lindholm type for Byram

Hard to know. Although (and this has been discussed on HFAvs), involving Byram for someone like Lindholm doesnt exactly make cap space to sign Lindholm initially.

 

[TMLAM34]

I’m torn between wanting to spend the assets to acquire Hanifin or hoping he hits free agency and we can sign him.

Taking a look around the league and top four defenceman are rarely available. When you have an opportunity to acquire one, you have to take it.

I’d easily sign him to a Rielly contract.

 

[horner]

It's hard to imagine a 1st and McCabe being nearly enough. If the Avs are open to trading Byram, the bids will be substantial as GMs see the same potential. In this scenario, do you see McCabe and a 1st being enough? McCabe as a third pairing add isnt a strong selling point at all. The Avs can get someone in free agency or through their pro scouts.

Also keep in mind, Byram will be one more mouth to feed as he comes up for a contract again in 2025. If he can be the player you're hoping for, its probably a problem you're willing to have. Tavares comes off the books around the samr time, no?

Byram is always injured
He has played 127 games in 4 years
No thanks
I think he has had a couple of concussions

 

[ToneDog]

I’m torn between wanting to spend the assets to acquire Hanifin or hoping he hits free agency and we can sign him.

Taking a look around the league and top four defenceman are rarely available. When you have an opportunity to acquire one, you have to take it.

I’d easily sign him to a Rielly contract.

We are a 500 team. Do not move valuable assets. Try to get Hanafin, Tanev for free July 1st.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Byram is always injured
He has played 127 games in 4 years
No thanks
I think he has had a couple of concussions

It's fair to have that concern (last year it was a lower body injury though). However, if not for the concussions and had Byram had a somewhat normal progression (ie mostly free of injury), is this even a discussion or a possibility?

The comment mentioning Byram as a target mentioned taking a chance on someone. If not that, the choices are limited. You kind of need a high draft pick and allow them to develop. It doesn't really fit the Leafs window.

 

[horner]

It's fair to have that concern (last year it was a lower body injury though). However, if not for the concussions and had Byram had a somewhat normal progression (ie mostly free of injury), is this even a discussion or a possibility?

The comment mentioning Byram as a target mentioned taking a chance on someone. If not that, the choices are limited. You kind of need a high draft pick and allow them to develop. It doesn't really fit the Leafs window.

One more concussion he could be finished

 

[John Mandalorian]

One more concussion he could be finished

Not disagreeing with that but it's doubtful that's going to drop his trade value. There are simply too many teams who are desparate for D and especially ones with a lot of upside. If he's traded, the acquiring team will likely be one that looks past the concussions.

 

[horner]

We are a 500 team. Do not move valuable assets. Try to get Hanafin, Tanev for free July 1st.

I would trade a 3rd + 5th for a dman

we aren't ready to go deep in the playoffs, we have to many things to fix

Free agency is the time to build the d


Hypothetically

Our 1st could 17 th at the draft is the time to trade the pick .
Trade back to a late 1st and get an extra 3rd rd pk
Trade the late 1st + prospect for a dman

 

[-DeMo-]

It's hard to imagine a 1st and McCabe being nearly enough. If the Avs are open to trading Byram, the bids will be substantial as GMs see the same potential. In this scenario, do you see McCabe and a 1st being enough? McCabe as a third pairing add isnt a strong selling point at all. The Avs can get someone in free agency or through their pro scouts.

Also keep in mind, Byram will be one more mouth to feed as he comes up for a contract again in 2025. If he can be the player you're hoping for, its probably a problem you're willing to have. Tavares comes off the books around the samr time, no?

well that's why I said that would be my starting point the 1st + McCabe. but I think people always over estimates what these players go for. as for McCabe himself he's a low end top 4 guy to replace Byram because Colorado is trying to win they wont want a prospect package only because they would then need to replace the Dmen as well as add scoring up front in other ways. with McCabe it allows them to just move Manson back into the top 4 and play McCabe on the bottom pairing. then reallocate Byrams Cap hit into a forward UFA signing or other trade.

as far as Byram yes he's up for a new contract after both Tavares and Marner's current deals are done. in fact I would trade for and then attempt to sign Byram long term this summer. something in the 6 year 5.5-6 million range. I think that contract is also a bit of a risk but if he hits his potential it could be a steal in the future. you would then have Byram under contract for 7 years.

 

[John Mandalorian]

well that's why I said that would be my starting point the 1st + McCabe. but I think people always over estimates what these players go for. as for McCabe himself he's a low end top 4 guy to replace Byram because Colorado is trying to win they wont want a prospect package only because they would then need to replace the Dmen as well as add scoring up front in other ways. with McCabe it allows them to just move Manson back into the top 4 and play McCabe on the bottom pairing. then reallocate Byrams Cap hit into a forward UFA signing or other trade.

as far as Byram yes he's up for a new contract after both Tavares and Marner's current deals are done. in fact I would trade for and then attempt to sign Byram long term this summer. something in the 6 year 5.5-6 million range. I think that contract is also a bit of a risk but if he hits his potential it could be a steal in the future. you would then have Byram under contract for 7 years.

Thinking back to your Tampa series, McCabe seemed to struggle with the pace of the game. Could be wrong but he looked slow. For how Colorado plays, it's hard to imagine them seeing him as an alternative.

The Avs have a weird little puzzle with their D. Manson's full NTC/NMC becomes modified in June. Girard is the inverse - his modified NTC/NMC starts in June (he currently has no NTC/NMC). And then there's Byram. He might be the one they want to trade the least but in a couple of years, it's going to be tight between a few of their other prominent players coming up for new contracts. They have to trade at least one of them.

 

[-DeMo-]

Hard to know. Although (and this has been discussed on HFAvs), involving Byram for someone like Lindholm doesnt exactly make cap space to sign Lindholm initially.

in terms of cap space is Lekhonen or Landeskog expected to return or are they LTIR till the end of there deals?

 

[John Mandalorian]

in terms of cap space is Lekhonen or Landeskog expected to return or are they LTIR till the end of there deals?

Word is that Lehkonen is out until February. Time will tell. They've been completely wrong before.

Landeskog is expected to be out the regular season.

 

[-DeMo-]

Word is that Lehkonen is out until February. Time will tell. They've been completely wrong before.

Landeskog is expected to be out the regular season.

so both are expected to play next year is essentially my question because looking at your cap it's hard to see how you guys fit Byrams next deal on the books if he has a good year next year.

I mean it looks like you guys have 84ish million signed next year among only 12 players giving you around 3-4 million for another minimum 8 guys.

so maybe you guys would actually prefer a prospect package

 

[John Mandalorian]

so both are expected to play next year is essentially my question because looking at your cap it's hard to see how you guys fit Byrams next deal on the books if he has a good year next year.

I mean it looks like you guys have 84ish million signed next year among only 12 players giving you around 3-4 million for another minimum 8 guys.

so maybe you guys would actually prefer a prospect package

You’re not wrong. The Avs have a lot up in the air at the moment. A lot will be defined by Landeskog. If he comes back and realizes the surgery didn’t accomplish what was hoped, this will shape things substantially. Which of Manson, Girard, and or Byram they trade is TBD.

 

[-DeMo-]

You’re not wrong. The Avs have a lot up in the air at the moment. A lot will be defined by Landeskog. If he comes back and realizes the surgery didn’t accomplish what was hoped, this will shape things substantially. Which of Manson, Girard, and or Byram they trade is TBD.

I see us as good trading partners we need both types of guys weather it's Manson for that tough stay at home style of guy or Byram and smooth skating top pairing potential two way guy. just be interesting if we have the pieces you guys would want to make a deal happen.

 

[Americanadian]

Nylander has a higher ppg rate than Reinhart this year and over the last three years so I'm not sure what your point is there.

Reinhart is a better defensive forward, but the gap has shrunk this year as demonstrated by their xGA/60 numbers. However, I am not going to harp on this point as Reinhart's rates are legitimately elite and he has maintained them for several seasons in a row.

Reinhart: 2.19xGA/60
Nylander: 2.65xGA/60

As for what Nylander does at an elite level please refer to the below.

ixG/60: 0.95
iHDCF/60: 2.9
xGF/60: 3.28
HDCF/60: 15.34

All while shooting 9.52% which is half what Reinhart is shooting this year. If you are interested Nylander is also among the very best forwards at various microstats according to Corey Sznajder's tracking data, I just can't post it because it's behind a paywall.

What is elite though? Is he 95th percentile? 90th? I see the numbers but I have 0 context here. For reference - Reinhart is 99th percentile among forwards defensively this year.