Trades and UFA’s - Trade Deadline Edition

[ULF_55]

because he doesn't have close to the two way potential of Byram?

How do we know?

 

[Legion34]

Why not try Niemela?

Would Tre want a 5 10 ish D man?

Edit. Apparently he is 6 foot

Tre will try bigger defenders I want to try him next year

Reilly. Xxx
Xxxx. Lilly
McCabe topi


Need 2 guys 6 3 plus there I think.

 

[Americanadian]

I’m good thanks. I’ve watched him play plenty and I am confident in what I’ve stated. The fact he doesn’t have a single vote for the Selke in the time period you point to is a good indicator of whether the hockey world thinks he’s top 5.

People are too reliant on analytics these days. Analytics that frankly are too immature to be truly valuable.

Fair point although Reinhart hasn't been a top 5 defensive forward either the past 2 seasons. If you look at the last 3 seasons combined, which is what I mentioned, he is top 5. He has consistently been around the top 10.

As far as analytics go - there is more to hockey analysis than numbers. Numbers exist to keep people in check when using an eye test. They also exist to understand a player that you don't watch regularly. Even if you don't think Reinhart is a top 5 defensive forward (which I believe), the gap between his defense and Nylander's is greater than the gap between their offense. Thus my point of Reinhart being the better player.

 

[ULF_55]

Would Tre want a 5 10 ish D man?

Edit. Apparently he is 6 foot

Tre will try bigger defenders I want to try him next year

Reilly. Xxx
Xxxx. Lilly
McCabe topi


Need 2 guys 6 3 plus there I think.

Two 6'3" defenders who can skate.

Yes.

 

[-DeMo-]

A 50% retained Domi

I was more talking about at draft time but if that's the price at the deadline I would make the move.

 

[-DeMo-]

How do we know?

we need 2 quality top 4 Dmen in the lineup next year is Niemala that good next year?

on top of that Byram was selected top 5 for a reason, he's a terrific Skater, good offensive instincts while also been great at the defensive side of the game in the last 2 season's prior to this one has 41 points in 72 games while dealing with Concussion issue at the same age as Niemala is currently yet to brake into the NHL. so I think it's pretty clear who has more potential. there's obviously still a small chance Niemala could be better because you never know but percentages say otherwise.

but regardless of that we need 2 quality top 4 Dmen so even if you think Niemala is that good there's still room for him to play top 4 even after adding Byram.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Disagree.
Firstly- I think it would be "moving on from Nylander because this isn't the year", not "we're not a contender and it needs torn down."

I think it's too early to call. It's been a rough couple of weeks since the Pittsburgh drubbing but we're still in 10th in league by points percentage, with goaltending as a huge rough spot that's worth a couple of points in and of itself. But IF over the next few weeks we fall out, the tough call to sell UFA's would put us in a really nice spot to retool around the majority of the core.

I was responding to the other poster - I didn't mean to say that "we are not a contender", that's too black and white for me, I was just discussing that as a theoretical. Having said that, contender means different things to different people and while I can't say this team has no shot, I do think winning this season is a massive long shot. I would point out that we're 10th overall partly due to gimmick points but in regulation PTS%, we're 15th overall as of today. The goaltending should be better with Woll but still a bit of a question mark as he's not exactly a proven commodity (though I do have high hopes for himP). If I'm not mistaken, the various defensive metrics show us as being much worse defensively than we've been in previous years, unless some miracle happens like Woll going into Dryden mode, I just don't see this team going deep. I also don't want to sell off the few top prospects/picks we have left so if it was up to me, I'd would 100% sell off the pending UFA's except for Nylander who I would try to resign. Or trade him too with the understanding that we'd like to bring him back in the summer, not sure how realistic that kind of a scenario is but that would be ideal.

What I think will happen unfortunately, is that we will in fact trade some futures in a desperate attempt to improve our D, it won't be enough and we'll just be even worse off down the road. I really hope I'm wrong, I guess we'll see.

 

[ULF_55]

we need 2 quality top 4 Dmen in the lineup next year is Niemala that good next year?

on top of that Byram was selected top 5 for a reason, he's a terrific Skater, good offensive instincts while also been great at the defensive side of the game in the last 2 season's prior to this one has 41 points in 72 games while dealing with Concussion issue at the same age as Niemala is currently yet to brake into the NHL. so I think it's pretty clear who has more potential. there's obviously still a small chance Niemala could be better because you never know but percentages say otherwise.

but regardless of that we need 2 quality top 4 Dmen so even if you think Niemala is that good there's still room for him to play top 4 even after adding Byram.

Dealing with concussion issue or issues?

Of course, Leafs never have problems when dealing with players who have health issues?

Not saying don't, just saying he isn't big, he has concussion history.

At least he isn't Girard.

 

[-DeMo-]

Dealing with concussion issue or issues?

Of course, Leafs never have problems when dealing with players who have health issues?

Not saying don't, just saying he isn't big, he has concussion history.

At least he isn't Girard.

players have gotten past concussion issues in the past Crosby immediately comes to mind.

but the thing is at 22 he still has top pairing potential he has all the tools and he plays on a team with Toews/Makar/Manson/Girard(assuming Girard will be coming back) who all make over 4 million so Colorado has a surplus of Dmen and potentially could move a Dmen if they felt they needed more skill upfront.

it's also incredibly more difficult to trade for players playing great teams generally don't move them while there playing well unless it's contract related. so you need to take a risk at some point and hope the player develops. Byram is a player who has a ton of potential and having a down year this year might make him expendable in the Avalanche eyes. so he would be a guy I would gamble on becoming a top pairing guy regardless of his size. and I believe at worst were getting a 22 year old quality top 4 Dmen as he is capable of today. that's still a piece we could really use.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I do like how you have to expand their point totals over their total career to try to make your point.

Let's start with age. They're 6 months apart, their aging curve's won't be far off if at all.

As far as "better" hockey player. Reinhart has been close to Nylander's production over the last 3 years yet Reinhart has been a top 5 defensive forward over that period. Nylander has been below replacement level defensively over that period.

Please show me Nylander's elite underlying numbers. Also - please define elite when you provide these numbers.

Why underlying numbers? Why not numbers?

 

[Americanadian]

Why underlying numbers? Why not numbers?

There's more to player evaluation than goals/assists. The same reason anyone would take Barkov over Bratt.

 

[Menzinger]

Can we talk about dealing Nylander yet? He's going to be quite the pick up at 50% salary. The Leafs are realistically better off moving on given his value is incredibly inflated by a career year and this team has many holes to fill to become a contender. The only destination that has assets to give up, a need a RW, and ability to create cap space is the Rangers.

There is a deal to be made around Miller+Lafreniere for Nylander (50% retained)+McCabe. If they don't want to deal Miller during a contending year I'd be looking at Laf+Schneider+Othmann for Nylander (50%)+Timmins. That deal wouldn't work with the cap - the Rangers would have to pay for double retention on Nylander. There is also an option of taking on Goodrow to make the cap work in exchange for a 1st+prospect or multiple 1st rounders.

Seattle is a sneaky 2nd team that could make it work. A deal would have to be centered around Nylander for Wright+Winterton+Tolvanen. You could swap in Oleksiak or Larsson or Bjorkstrand for Tolvanen but I don't think Seattle touches that. A Seattle package is far less enticing.

When was the last time a mid season rental returned multiple roster players? Teams are looking to add to their rosters now, not rearrange them.

The best asset returned in a Nylander trade is going to be the other teams 1st round pick + something else of a bit less value (likely a prospect in the AHL or a recent guy in the NCAA or juniors).

Think closer to the Fiala trade not Eichel.

Edit:
And Fiala was an offseason trade, meaning the Kings were guaranteed to get 2X the amount of games as a team will getting Nylander in January/February which will impact the return too

 

[Americanadian]

Think closer to the Fiala trade not Eichel

Not to be hyperbolic but wouldn't the Fiala trade be the best case scenario for Nylander? Faber is a top pair RHD one season later.

 

[Menzinger]

Not to be hyperbolic but wouldn't the Fiala trade be the best case scenario for Nylander? Faber is a top pair RHD one season later.

It would be. But the Wild got very lucky Faber took a fairly unexpected jump. He was considered around a top 10 prospect for the Kings. The Leafs would hope to get a similar find if they did but I don't think one should count on repeating it.

 

[Americanadian]

It would be. But the Wild got very lucky Faber took a fairly unexpected jump. He was considered around a top 10 prospect for the Kings. The Leafs would hope to get a similar find if they did but I don't think one should count on repeating it.

I've been following the Athletic's prospect writers for a long time and they were both very high on Faber when he was traded. They had him as a top 3 prospect for the Kings in a prospect pool with Byfield and Clarke. All that is to say I don't believe for a second that Faber was top 10, not top 5. The first round pick was also known to be #19 when it was dealt. It was a good deal and not really a fluke.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It would be. But the Wild got very lucky Faber took a fairly unexpected jump. He was considered around a top 10 prospect for the Kings. The Leafs would hope to get a similar find if they did but I don't think one should count on repeating it.

A week out from TDL Nylander won't extend, you've given your best offer

Team is still up and down, suspect goaltending, defense is the same, team will be 2-3 or WC

NYR call with an offer of Schneider and 1st (maybe another piece) for Nylander at 50% retained, what are you doing?

 

[Kiwi]

Jesus christ
This team isn't going to sell

There safely in a playoff spot at New Year and I seriously doubt there going to be so far out by the TDL they sell

Nylander was an off-season trade, you don't put yourself in this situation if you have any intention of selling Him
He's either going to be resigned or he's an "own rental" and walks to Free Agency

The only guys getting traded off our roster are dudes that help to make the money work when we bring new players in at the TDL

I may want to sell, you may want to sell but it's to late for that now

 

[Menzinger]

I've been following the Athletic's prospect writers for a long time and they were both very high on Faber when he was traded. They had him as a top 3 prospect for the Kings in a prospect pool with Byfield and Clarke. All that is to say I don't believe for a second that Faber was top 10, not top 5. The first round pick was also known to be #19 when it was dealt. It was a good deal and not really a fluke.

I was also higher than him than most having seen him play with the Gophers. At the time most had Turcotte and Kaliyev ahead of him fairly universally. At best he was considered #5 among most rankings.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I know in Capfriendly we all change out a lot of the defense core but there is a real case to be made the Leafs will have an entirely new right side of D next year.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[LaPlante94]

Any way we can steal McLeod from New Jersey to be the full time 4th line C

 

[Dragao6]

Jesus christ
This team isn't going to sell

There safely in a playoff spot at New Year and I seriously doubt there going to be so far out by the TDL they sell

Nylander was an off-season trade, you don't put yourself in this situation if you have any intention of selling Him
He's either going to be resigned or he's an "own rental" and walks to Free Agency

The only guys getting traded off our roster are dudes that help to make the money work when we bring new players in at the TDL

I may want to sell, you may want to sell but it's to late for that now

My friend
Sometimes it isn’t about just making the playoffs
You sometimes have to make moves knowing your not ready to contend so that in the near future you can seriously compete
This team is in a playoff spot but going nowhere!!

 

[Rare Jewel]

View attachment 793060

We'll see.

Rather than paying a high price for someone on form, a change of scenery type trade with Samsonov may also work.

 

[Kiwi]

My friend
Sometimes it isn’t about just making the playoffs
You sometimes have to make moves knowing your not ready to contend so that in the near future you can seriously compete
This team is in a playoff spot but going nowhere!!

It's like none of you people have ever had a boss, you don't get to do what you want

You do what your told and if you think MLSE is going to flush playoff revenue down the toilet when the team is comfortably in a playoff spot your insane

 

[Dragao6]

It's like none of you people have ever had a boss, you don't get to do what you want

You do what your told and if you think MLSE is going to flush playoff revenue down the toilet when the team is comfortably in a playoff spot your insane

We’ve been doing the same thing for 20 years bud
Nowhere closer today to winning

I’m not saying don’t make the playoffs if u can but selling is a very good idea this year. Def not waste assets in this team