Trades and Free Agency Thread - Quarantine reduced to 7 days

[jaric1862]

I'm using Capfriendly's trade machine and it's saying that we could afford Foligno at 50% retention if we go down to a 20 man roster (obviously this depends on Andersen's health)...Can someone confirm if this is true?

 

[seanlinden]

For all the heat Dubas has been taking for "lack of moves", somewhat disjointed roster, and the Leafs recent slide -- I think you do have to give him some overall credit. This is still a really good team, with a REALLY good prospect system.

I'm hesitant to "rank" the Leafs prospect pool, but I don't believe either the HockeyNews, or BleacherReport, who ranked them 15th and 19th overall, did the Leafs system justice.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/
NHL Farm System Rankings: Which Team Has the Best Group of Prospects?

This is a pool that has:
- A 19 year old who scored 55 goals in the OHL last year.
- 21 and 20 year old former 1st round pick defencemen with a taste of NHL experience (Sandin & Liljegren)
- A recent 15th OA pick in Rodion Amirov
- A recent 3rd round pick who just won best defenceman at the WJCs (Topi Niemla)
- Their own 1st and 2nd round picks this year

Of course, none of these assets are Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte or Lucas Raymond... but as far as players outside of NHL rosters, there aren't many who are CLEARLY a step above those Leafs assets.... and even fewer who are on contending teams / potentially available.

Obviously, there are cap issues that will limit Dubas' flexibility... but the reality is, they can certainly afford to lose a couple of high-end pieces for the right player.... especially if they can get somebody who might be able to alleviate a cap issue for them beyond this year.

 

[Faltorvo]

For all the heat Dubas has been taking for "lack of moves", somewhat disjointed roster, and the Leafs recent slide -- I think you do have to give him some overall credit. This is still a really good team, with a REALLY good prospect system.

I'm hesitant to "rank" the Leafs prospect pool, but I don't believe either the HockeyNews, or BleacherReport, who ranked them 15th and 19th overall, did the Leafs system justice.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/
NHL Farm System Rankings: Which Team Has the Best Group of Prospects?

This is a pool that has:
- A 19 year old who scored 55 goals in the OHL last year.
- 21 and 20 year old former 1st round pick defencemen with a taste of NHL experience (Sandin & Liljegren)
- A recent 15th OA pick in Rodion Amirov
- A recent 3rd round pick who just won best defenceman at the WJCs (Topi Niemla)
- Their own 1st and 2nd round picks this year

Obviously, there are cap issues that will limit Dubas' flexibility... but the reality is, they can certainly afford to lose a couple of high-end pieces for the right player.... especially if they can get somebody who might be able to alleviate a cap issue for them beyond this year.

Their opinions are utterly worthless to me ,,like spent TP

Rasmus Sandin is not in their top 100 prospects??? BAHAHAHAHA,,gutter trash

 

[Mickey Marner]

Neither Beane nor Morey ever won, so I don't know why we'd cite either rather than guys like Buford and Epstein who were successful in incorporating analytics into championship teams.

 

[Stephen]

Is Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas ready to go all-in on Daryl Morey’s 5 percent theory? - The Athletic

“If you’ve got even a 5 percent chance to win the title — and that group includes a very small number of teams every year — you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.”

That was Daryl Morey, the influential NBA executive, way back in 2012 when he was GM of the Houston Rockets. At the time, Morey, and the rest of pro basketball, were consumed with taking down LeBron James and the juggernaut Miami Heat.

Morey was insisting that teams shouldn’t plan on waiting out the Heat. If an organization had even a fighting chance to win the title — with odds as low as 5 percent — Morey believed it was imperative to do everything possible to accomplish that goal.

Kyle Dubas should heed Morey’s advice as he navigates trade opportunities ahead of the April 12 deadline. The Maple Leafs GM is clearly a fan of Morey’s thinking, even if he hasn’t always adhered to the 5 percent theory during his short time running the Leafs.



Dubas’ Maple Leafs currently have a 10 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup in 2021, according to our own Dom Luszczyszyn. So if you’re buying the whole 5 percent theory, Dubas should be willing to consider just about anything — within reason — in the days and weeks ahead, with an eye on bringing home Toronto’s first Stanley Cup in 54 years.

Should he be willing to trade prized prospects Nick Robertson or Rasmus Sandin if the return is right? You betcha. Deal another first-round pick, or even multiple top picks? A clear green light to both if it means acquiring talent that helps boost those odds even higher.

The Leafs Cup window is as open as it’s been in recent memory — and may ever be with a playoff format in 2021 that guarantees a Canadian team in the final four.

Opportunities like this are rare. And windows of contention can dry up quickly.

With stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at the top of their game, and vets like Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds and Zach Bogosian joining the chase and providing meaningful contributions on one-year deals, the Leafs are built to win now.

Following Morey’s path would require Dubas to be even more aggressive than he’s been at his two trade deadlines as Leafs GM. He should address at least one apparent hole upfront (perhaps two) and/or seek to improve depth on the back end and even in goal perhaps with Frederik Andersen struggling — and now hurt.

Leading up to his first deadline as GM, in 2019, Dubas wisely moved early to address a need on defence, acquiring Jake Muzzin from the Kings in late January. Muzzin, who had an extra year left on his deal, didn’t exactly plug the biggest hole on the team — a partner for Morgan Rielly — but he improved the team’s overall defence corps for two playoff runs. The Leafs extended his contract last February.

“Our preference was always to add players that were going to be here for more than just a few months,” was how Dubas explained his thinking at the time. “And that was certainly one of the things that was appealing about Jake.”

The price for Muzzin was the 22nd overall pick in the 2019 draft (Tobias Bjornfot, 20 NHL games), defensive prospect Sean Durzi (0 NHL games), and Carl Grundstrom, who’s since become a regular upfront for the Kings.

It’s proved to be a shrewd trade for the Leafs.

Just before the 2019 deadline, Dubas made one other deal, flipping Par Lindholm, an expiring contract who wasn’t doing much on the fourth line, for Nic Petan, in an ultimately inconsequential deal.

Perhaps he should have gone even further.

..................

Championship windows can be fleeting. Then can be over before you even realize it.

The Leafs are only guaranteed four more cracks at the postseason while the core of Matthews, Marner and William Nylander are all under team control together.

Matthews and Nylander, along with Muzzin and T.J. Brodie, are scheduled to become free agents in the summer of 2024. Marner and John Tavares are up the year after that.

Zach Hyman is a pending UFA this summer. Morgan Rielly’s deal is up in 2022.

And so while Robertson, looks the part of a future top-six winger, if he’s the price in order to acquire a top trade target, so be it for the Leafs.

Darryl Morey never won a championship in Houston though, so you have to take all of that with a heavy grain of salt. I think Masai down the hall should serve as a better role model that if you have a franchise altering/championship winning trade, you make it.

Other than that, Dubas should focus on becoming hockey's Theo Epstein.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Their opinions are utterly worthless to me ,,like spent TP

Rasmus Sandin is not in their top 100 prospects??? BAHAHAHAHA,,gutter trash

Someone from the hockey writers ranked our prospect pool 3rd when we had Matthews, Marner, Nylander etc. behind Arizona lol.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-prospect-pools-the-complete-ranking/

People have been prescribed clozapine for less.

 

[leafsfan5]

Darryl Morey never won a championship in Houston though, so you have to take all of that with a heavy grain of salt. I think Masai down the hall should serve as a better role model that if you have a franchise altering/championship winning trade, you make it.

Other than that, Dubas should focus on becoming hockey's Theo Epstein.

I mean people also need to take into account the luck that occurred in both situations. Morey's rockets in 2018 were one of the best teams in history but had terrible luck. They lost their best playoff player (Chris Paul) in game 5 of the WCF against GSW (up 3-2) , had terrible reffing in game 7 of that series along with one of the greatest statistical anomalies in basketball history going 0-27. Whatever could go wrong for them did.

The raptors on the other hand had luck. The shot Kawhi hit was lucky, they could've won in OT who knows, but that shot itself with all the bounces on the rim was lucky. They also faced a GSW squad that didn't have their best player in KD and had Klay get hurt halfway through a legendary game 6 performance. Luck went the Raptors way and they can say their champions, luck didn't go the Rockets way so they can't. Context matters when looking at what happened for both executives. A healthy Kevin Durant and Toronto isn't celebrating in 2019.

For hockey the randomness and luck factor increases by multiple magnitudes compared to basketball. We should put ourselves in a position where we have as many chances as possible to contend. It won't all come together most of the years, but it might once and we need to maximize the chances for that. That's what happened for Washington, St.Louis and Tampa. Continue tweaking the roster and making upgrades where needed but an "all in" method isn't smart in the NHL unless your core is at the end of its prime.

 

[Buds17]

The Muzzin trade isn't all that applicable to the current situation. Cap space is even tougher to come by now and neither of Grundstrom nor Durzi were in the NHL with the Leafs. Robertson and Sandin may not be playing for the Leafs at the moment but they have respectively played in games of significance and quantity. There would be cap and expansion considerations if the player hypothetically acquired were to be under contract for next season. Conversely, acquiring a pending UFA leaves the possibility of a one-and-done scenario. There are also a number of differences in comparing the NBA to the NHL - fewer players in a lineup, the minutes played by some of those players, 4/5 year max contracts versus 7/8 years, and a luxury tax versus a salary cap.

 

[123offtheglass]

I'm using Capfriendly's trade machine and it's saying that we could afford Foligno at 50% retention if we go down to a 20 man roster (obviously this depends on Andersen's health)...Can someone confirm if this is true?

Trade Machine still has some errors/bugs sadly (think it's still fairly new) so you need to be aware of this while using it; it's still a great tool though. We don't quite have enough because I'm guessing you sent down Hutchinson to free up cash while still being set at a '20-man roster' but he's a roster emergency exception where his cap hit is 0 but the trade machine still takes his pro-rated cap hit off the books.

So the answer is no, just an error in the trade machine, unless capfriendly to begin with is off as well which would not suprise me one bit; I'm not sure it's 100% accurate 100% of the time to begin with but still very trustworthy & useful (at least given what's around, most insiders are very clueless when it comes to the salary cap)

This is from the other day & accurate based on the assumption that capfriendly's initial data is correct but while still cautious when using the trade finder for the reason mentioned above ^ :
Trades and Free Agency Thread - Quarantine reduced to 7 days

 

[123offtheglass]

For all the heat Dubas has been taking for "lack of moves", somewhat disjointed roster, and the Leafs recent slide -- I think you do have to give him some overall credit. This is still a really good team, with a REALLY good prospect system.

I'm hesitant to "rank" the Leafs prospect pool, but I don't believe either the HockeyNews, or BleacherReport, who ranked them 15th and 19th overall, did the Leafs system justice.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/
NHL Farm System Rankings: Which Team Has the Best Group of Prospects?

This is a pool that has:
- A 19 year old who scored 55 goals in the OHL last year.
- 21 and 20 year old former 1st round pick defencemen with a taste of NHL experience (Sandin & Liljegren)
- A recent 15th OA pick in Rodion Amirov
- A recent 3rd round pick who just won best defenceman at the WJCs (Topi Niemla)
- Their own 1st and 2nd round picks this year

Of course, none of these assets are Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte or Lucas Raymond... but as far as players outside of NHL rosters, there aren't many who are CLEARLY a step above those Leafs assets.... and even fewer who are on contending teams / potentially available.

Obviously, there are cap issues that will limit Dubas' flexibility... but the reality is, they can certainly afford to lose a couple of high-end pieces for the right player.... especially if they can get somebody who might be able to alleviate a cap issue for them beyond this year.

I mean, Although many either don't realize or don't want to admit it but Robertson is better than Byfield; Byfield is almost a full year younger though. Robertson drafted 5 days earlier is one of the top few picks from that draft... given time when these Leafs prospects start producing at the NHL level people will think they came out of nowhere; until then Dubas & his picks probably won't get credit they deserve.

 

[Nylanderthal]

I couldn't believe it when he signed Kerfoot for that much on a contract so high in signing bonuses & front loaded...

Almost 1/2 of Kerfoot's points in Colorado came off of their lethal powerplay, 5v5 he's actually outproduced what he did with the Avalanche.

At least after his next signing bonus it should be much easier to move his cap hit; only owed 3.45m/2yr compared to 7m/2yr so big savings there.

Kerfoot has been a more effective player especially 5v5 than Naz since the trade. Why is everyone so hung up on moving him?

 

[Nylanderthal]

I still think we need to nab Bennett... but my wish is Jenner or Foligno
Though both are doable, with the right mix or players + Retention.

Upgrading both Kerfoot and Engvall to more character playoff type guys would put us ahead of the curve

OUT:
Kerfoot + Engvall + 1st + Prospect
IN
Jenner /Foligno + Bennett (retained)

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Bennett/Foligno- Tavares - Nylander
Simmonds - Jenner/Bennett - Galchenyuk
Mikhayev - Spezza - Thornton /Robertson

You added assets to get two worse players.... why??

 

[123offtheglass]

Kerfoot has been a more effective player especially 5v5 than Naz since the trade. Why is everyone so hung up on moving him?

I guess everyone thinks otherwise, myself included.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I guess everyone thinks otherwise, myself included.

Kadri has averaged about 10 more 5 on 5 points per 82 since the trade, but Kerfoot has been so much better defensively that it eliminates that advantage.

 

[Fogelhund]

I guess everyone thinks otherwise, myself included.

Why exactly are people hung up on a player who management traded for a lack of maturity, and poor decision making, over a very long period in time?

 

[TheGroceryStick]

You added assets to get two worse players.... why??

Both players are not only better, but play the role we lack

 

[123offtheglass]

Why exactly are people hung up on a player who management traded for a lack of maturity, and poor decision making, over a very long period in time?

I'm not sure, I'd ask why people keep trying to compare Kerfoot to Kadri; only 1 player I was talking about until Kadri was brought into it... seems like a sensitive topic (because deep down we all know we lost that trade, and Kadri left on a very sour note based on those 2 Boston series)

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

Kadri has averaged about 10 more 5 on 5 points per 82 since the trade, but Kerfoot has been so much better defensively that it eliminates that advantage.

Curious about how you're quantifying that? From my view, Kerfoot's faceoff ability is actually a significant disadvantage compared to Kadri, and well below average, to the point where he's a liability, is getting worse as the season goes on, and loses almost 2/3 of the time. I think that needs to weigh in heavily for a guy who's supposed to be the 3C when Hyman is on the 1st line. Forget points from a 3c, you need one that can win faceoffs at least 45% of the time, especially when's he purported to be a PK specialist.

 

[stickty111]

Both players are not only better, but play the role we lack

They really aren't. Bennett is particular is pretty awful. Foligno also isn't good anymore.

 

[613Leafer]

Darryl Morey never won a championship in Houston though, so you have to take all of that with a heavy grain of salt. I think Masai down the hall should serve as a better role model that if you have a franchise altering/championship winning trade, you make it.

Other than that, Dubas should focus on becoming hockey's Theo Epstein.

The thing about going all in on your ~5-10% chance or whatever it is, you have to think about how long your window is, and what the odds theoretically look like the next few years.

Say the Leafs have a 10% chance of winning this year and every year for the subsequent 3 years for simplicity's sake. And say by trading Robertson, Liljegren, and a 2nd or whatever in various trades we can raise that to ~15% this year, but those moves are all for pending UFAs, and then our odds the next three years drops to 8% because we lack the NHL ready talent to maintain us at 10%.

You'd be better off just staying the course and going with 10% for four years instead of 15% one year and 8% the other three.

Especially in hockey. In the NBA, the champion is almost always one of the top 2-3 teams, and if you can get to that level you probably have more like a ~25-30% chance to win. The NHL playoffs are more competitive so you're less likely to be successful when going "all in".

 

[Judas Tavares]

At this point I think the goaltending situation needs addressing, less from the quality standpoint and more from a health standpoint. I think it would be kind of playing with fire at this point to hope their health sorts itself out in time for the playoffs and also to make it through the playoffs. They don't need a world beater here. Just a healthy Campbell equivalent.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

At this point I think the goaltending situation needs addressing, less from the quality standpoint and more from a health standpoint. I think it would be kind of playing with fire at this point to hope their health sorts itself out in time for the playoffs and also to make it through the playoffs. They don't need a world beater here. Just a healthy Campbell equivalent.

Fully agreed. It’s not even about how well our goaltending has been but about just having a healthy, 1A/1B minimum goalie going into the playoffs. The prospect of having to roll with Hutchinson into the playoffs is terrifying.

There should be no higher priority right now.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think this works out cap wise...

Kerfoot, 1st round pick, and a non-top-4 prospect to New Jersey for Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri both 50% retained.

4th round pick to Detroit for John Merrill.


Zach Hyman - Auston Matthews - William Nylander
Kyle Palmieri - John Tavares - Mitch Marner
Ilya Mikheyev - Travis Zajac - Wayne Simmonds
Joe Thornton - Pierre Engvall - Jason Spezza

Morgan Rielly - TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin - Justin Holl
John Merrill - Zach Bogosian

Expansion draft... Pierre Engvall, Travis Dermott, and Michael Hutchinson get exposed.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Why exactly are people hung up on a player who management traded for a lack of maturity, and poor decision making, over a very long period in time?

BeCaUsE hE hAd BaLLs

 

[Nylanderthal]

I guess everyone thinks otherwise, myself included.

Might wanna check your quotes and likes boss, definitely not “everyone” more like the knuckle dragging crew around here who are always thirsty for moar truculence seem to be hasty to send him packing.