Is Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas ready to go all-in on Daryl Morey’s 5 percent theory? - The Athletic
“If you’ve got even a 5 percent chance to win the title — and that group includes a very small number of teams every year — you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.”
That was Daryl Morey, the influential NBA executive, way back in 2012 when he was GM of the Houston Rockets. At the time, Morey, and the rest of pro basketball, were consumed with taking down LeBron James and the juggernaut Miami Heat.
Morey was insisting that teams shouldn’t plan on waiting out the Heat.
If an organization had even a fighting chance to win the title — with odds as low as 5 percent — Morey believed it was imperative to do everything possible to accomplish that goal.
Kyle Dubas should heed Morey’s advice as he navigates trade opportunities ahead of the April 12 deadline. The Maple Leafs GM is clearly a fan of Morey’s thinking, even if he hasn’t always adhered to the 5 percent theory during his short time running the Leafs.
Dubas’ Maple Leafs currently have a 10 percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup in 2021, according to our own Dom Luszczyszyn. So if you’re buying the whole 5 percent theory, Dubas should be willing to consider just about anything — within reason — in the days and weeks ahead, with an eye on bringing home Toronto’s first Stanley Cup in 54 years.
Should he be willing to trade prized prospects Nick Robertson or Rasmus Sandin if the return is right? You betcha. Deal another first-round pick, or even multiple top picks? A clear green light to both if it means acquiring talent that helps boost those odds even higher.
The Leafs Cup window is as open as it’s been in recent memory — and may ever be with a playoff format in 2021 that guarantees a Canadian team in the final four.
Opportunities like this are rare. And windows of contention can dry up quickly.
With stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at the top of their game, and vets like Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds and Zach Bogosian joining the chase and providing meaningful contributions on one-year deals, the Leafs are built to win now.
Following Morey’s path would require Dubas to be even more aggressive than he’s been at his two trade deadlines as Leafs GM. He should address at least one apparent hole upfront (perhaps two) and/or seek to improve depth on the back end and even in goal perhaps with Frederik Andersen struggling — and now hurt.
Leading up to his first deadline as GM, in 2019, Dubas wisely moved early to address a need on defence, acquiring Jake Muzzin from the Kings in late January. Muzzin, who had an extra year left on his deal, didn’t exactly plug the biggest hole on the team — a partner for Morgan Rielly — but he improved the team’s overall defence corps for two playoff runs. The Leafs extended his contract last February.
“Our preference was always to add players that were going to be here for more than just a few months,” was how Dubas explained his thinking at the time. “And that was certainly one of the things that was appealing about Jake.”
The price for Muzzin was the 22nd overall pick in the 2019 draft (Tobias Bjornfot, 20 NHL games), defensive prospect Sean Durzi (0 NHL games), and Carl Grundstrom, who’s since become a regular upfront for the Kings.
It’s proved to be a shrewd trade for the Leafs.
Just before the 2019 deadline, Dubas made one other deal, flipping Par Lindholm, an expiring contract who wasn’t doing much on the fourth line, for Nic Petan, in an ultimately inconsequential deal.
Perhaps he should have gone even further.
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Championship windows can be fleeting. Then can be over before you even realize it.
The Leafs are only guaranteed four more cracks at the postseason while the core of Matthews, Marner and William Nylander are all under team control together.
Matthews and Nylander, along with Muzzin and T.J. Brodie, are scheduled to become free agents in the summer of 2024. Marner and John Tavares are up the year after that.
Zach Hyman is a pending UFA this summer. Morgan Rielly’s deal is up in 2022.
And so while Robertson, looks the part of a future top-six winger, if he’s the price in order to acquire a top trade target, so be it for the Leafs.