Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[ULF_55]

If I had 2 bullets and I was in a room with Dubas, Lou, Pridham and Hunter, I would shoot Dubas twice.

(joke stolen from the office sitcom)

You're aiming in the wrong snack bracket.

Aim higher.

 

[Stephen]

Just looked into it deeper, Pageau had 48 goals against 40 goals for in 930 minutes at ES, Kampf had 39 against 40 for in 1030 ES minutes with more brutal zone starts (23 and 27% last two years vs Pageau at mid 30s to mid 40s last few years).

And this is with Kampf playing in front of a defense with 2 of Mete, Benn, and Hollowell for a stretch in front of Woll/Samsonov/Murray vs playing in front of a big physical D in front of Sorokin.

Hmm, I never really thought of Pageau as a massive defensive asset, more like a spark plug in the Kerfoot, Gourde world, with so much determined by that abrasive personality.

 

[andora]

Exactly. The only value some posters ever provide is hindsight. The rest of their head is often in that same vicinity too

Eventually though enough hindsight can be used to determine a successful time frame or not

 

[Martin Skoula]

Hmm, I never really thought of Pageau as a massive defensive asset, more like a spark plug in the Kerfoot, Gourde world, with so much determined by that abrasive personality.

Master of none Swiss Army knife I guess. The entire difference between him and Kampf offensively is PP minutes. I’m iffy on Kampf’s bang for the buck as a 2.4 mil 28 year old, more than double for a smaller older more fragile player with worse defense and offense is insane.

The more I look at it the more I’d need Wahlstrom + 1st just to take that deal off their hands before we even start talking about what Nylander costs.

 

[cyris]

On the higher side based on comparables

Jeannot is kinda hard to make comparables to.
He is probably a top 5 heavyweight that can actually play an effective game.
If he can rebound to be somewhere between where he was last season and where he was in his rookie season it will be a great deal.

 

[nuck]

Pageau is completely a cap dump.
5 mil for 3 more seasons isnt what you pay a #3C who hasn’t broke 40 points since 2015

We'll agree to disagree then. To me, a bit overpaid doesn't mean cap dump, it means retention if you take him. And a #3 with 28% oz starts isn't going to have any big numbers. His closest comp is probably Charlie Coyle. Their production would have been almost identical this year if Pageau doesn't miss 12 games but Coyle isn't nearly as physical and gets 35% oz starts. Coyle makes $5.25M.

There are no #3cs with that type of usage getting over 50 points, that's Kampf territory. O'Reilly had 40.8% oz in 22-23 and scored at a 38pt pace. Goodrow for the Rangers had 41% oz starts and he gets $3.6M with a career high of 33 pts. Cirelli gets $6.25M per with 43% oz usage and a career best 53pts that he hasn't come close to repeating. And he is less physical and not as good on the dot.

I think Pageau with some retention could be a good add but I haven't dug into the Isles board to see how much they think he has left in the tank. I'll worry about that if they actually get him.

Jeannot is kinda hard to make comparables to.
He is probably a top 5 heavyweight that can actually play an effective game.
If he can rebound to be somewhere between where he was last season and where he was in his rookie season it will be a great deal.

And if he repeats last season he will make the Reaves deal look pretty good.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Jeannot is kinda hard to make comparables to.
He is probably a top 5 heavyweight that can actually play an effective game.
If he can rebound to be somewhere between where he was last season and where he was in his rookie season it will be a great deal.

He's not a 20% shooter, so likely much closer to what he was last season.

 

[TMLAM34]

Hagel looked rough when he was first traded to Tampa but really settled in this past season, I expect the same from Jeannot.

 

[LeafChief]

Yeah, I would liken the New York Islanders and their deep playoff runs to what we saw in Toronto back during the Burns/Fletcher days. Went a lot farther in the playoffs than a team like Detroit but didn't have the horses to get over the hump. This Leafs build doesn't appear to have that Detroit upside either. So it's like do you want a veteran laden overachiever in the post season that won't win. Or a team with so much on paper potential, but flames out in painful fashion every year.

Kind of an awful take.

Detroit was looked at as a team that didn't have that upside either. Yzerman was 30 when they finally go it done. Leading up to that he was looked at as an underachiever and a bad leader. There is also the reported Yashin/Yzerman trade that was being discussed.

Teams can't get it done, until they do. Eichel was looked at as a guy that couldn't get it done until a few months ago. Perception changes really quickly.

 

[Stephen]

Kind of an awful take.

Detroit was looked at as a team that didn't have that upside either. Yzerman was 30 when they finally go it done. Leading up to that he was looked at as an underachiever and a bad leader. There is also the reported Yashin/Yzerman trade that was being discussed.

Teams can't get it done, until they do. Eichel was looked at as a guy that couldn't get it done until a few months ago. Perception changes really quickly.

Yes, well until the miraculous transformation occurs, these guys don't have it. Their level of playoff underachievement is historic at this point. We're look up to see other skilled underachievers like Ottawa and San Jose. They never figured it out either.

So the question is really, are fans level of enjoyment better if the team went on a few fun playoff runs, or cling onto some notion of Leafs exceptionalism while standing around the starting line? No wrong answers.

 

[LeafChief]

Yes, well until the miraculous transformation occurs, these guys don't have it. Their level of playoff underachievement is historic at this point. We're look up to see other skilled underachievers like Ottawa and San Jose. They never figured it out either.

Ah yes - because Ottawa and San Jose never figured it out, the Leafs won't either. We may as well all stop watching.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Kind of an awful take.

Detroit was looked at as a team that didn't have that upside either. Yzerman was 30 when they finally go it done. Leading up to that he was looked at as an underachiever and a bad leader. There is also the reported Yashin/Yzerman trade that was being discussed.

Teams can't get it done, until they do. Eichel was looked at as a guy that couldn't get it done until a few months ago. Perception changes really quickly.

That plus if we wanted to completely re-design the team in June, we could pull 8+ 1sts worth of value just selling off Matthews Marner and Nylander at rental prices without extensions. Whether that’s in futures or hockey trades, you could rework the team’s value into a configuration that you like better. Rielly is the only remaining longterm deal you’d have to work around.

If you want to re-design the Islanders, you wouldn’t get any value for most of their top-6 and would in fact need to spend several firsts dumping long term ageing grinder contracts with NTCs. Barzal, Sorokin, and Pelech are the only assets with any value worth speaking of.

 

[thusk]

The issue is Bertuzzi and Domi have one year deals. If they do well and they want to stay we probabaly wont be able to keep one let alone two.

I think Nylander cares about money more than the team so if Calgary will give him $10 million he will be ok with the trade. I am not sure how many teams can afford him at $10 mil.

If he would ta5ke $8.5-9.25 the leafs would probably sign him unless they know they will have cap issues regardless.

I like Lindholm because I think centers are hard to come by and we dont really have any in the pipeline. If we can get Lindholm extendended in the low $8s thats super helpful as we look to phase out Tavares.

Im agree than trading nylander vs lindholm would be a good thing but Nylander can not be interesting to resign right now with calgary or having calgary in his 10 team no trade list. I would like it but still understand than can be impossible too

1 year deal it is really an issue?

I just take domi as exemple... domi finishing around 65-70 pts, how much he will deserve next contract? 4,5M similar to bunting???

A prove it deal, yeah if they get it done they can raise of salary but you will have a better idea of what youve got

 

[LeafChief]

That plus if we wanted to completely re-design the team in June, we could pull 8+ 1sts worth of value just selling off Matthews Marner and Nylander at rental prices without extensions. Whether that’s in futures or hockey trades, you could rework the team’s value into a configuration that you like better. Rielly is the only remaining longterm deal you’d have to work around.

If you want to re-design the Islanders, you wouldn’t get any value for most of their top-6 and would in fact need to spend several firsts dumping long term ageing grinder contracts with NTCs. Barzal, Sorokin, and Pelech are the only assets with any value worth speaking of.

The grass is always greener [MOD]

 

[ULF_55]

We'll agree to disagree then. To me, a bit overpaid doesn't mean cap dump, it means retention if you take him. And a #3 with 28% oz starts isn't going to have any big numbers. His closest comp is probably Charlie Coyle. Their production would have been almost identical this year if Pageau doesn't miss 12 games but Coyle isn't nearly as physical and gets 35% oz starts. Coyle makes $5.25M.

There are no #3cs with that type of usage getting over 50 points, that's Kampf territory. O'Reilly had 40.8% oz in 22-23 and scored at a 38pt pace. Goodrow for the Rangers had 41% oz starts and he gets $3.6M with a career high of 33 pts. Cirelli gets $6.25M per with 43% oz usage and a career best 53pts that he hasn't come close to repeating. And he is less physical and not as good on the dot.

I think Pageau with some retention could be a good add but I haven't dug into the Isles board to see how much they think he has left in the tank. I'll worry about that if they actually get him.


And if he repeats last season he will make the Reaves deal look pretty good.

I missed the start of this, was thinking it was a trade Nylander trade, but with Pageau being a key piece maybe Tavares agreed to waive?

 

[cyris]

We'll agree to disagree then. To me, a bit overpaid doesn't mean cap dump, it means retention if you take him. And a #3 with 28% oz starts isn't going to have any big numbers. His closest comp is probably Charlie Coyle. Their production would have been almost identical this year if Pageau doesn't miss 12 games but Coyle isn't nearly as physical and gets 35% oz starts. Coyle makes $5.25M.

There are no #3cs with that type of usage getting over 50 points, that's Kampf territory. O'Reilly had 40.8% oz in 22-23 and scored at a 38pt pace. Goodrow for the Rangers had 41% oz starts and he gets $3.6M with a career high of 33 pts. Cirelli gets $6.25M per with 43% oz usage and a career best 53pts that he hasn't come close to repeating. And he is less physical and not as good on the dot.

I think Pageau with some retention could be a good add but I haven't dug into the Isles board to see how much they think he has left in the tank. I'll worry about that if they actually get him.


And if he repeats last season he will make the Reaves deal look pretty good.

He's not a 20% shooter, so likely much closer to what he was last season.

He doesn’t need to repeat his first season. If he can put up 15ish goals and 30is point in a 3rd line roll it’s a great deal. Guys who are top level heavyweights and can actually contribute as effective players on the ice are incredibly rare. These guys will always be overpaid.
People are too hung up on the price Tampa paid to acquire him.

 

[VanW27]

Kind of an awful take.

Detroit was looked at as a team that didn't have that upside either. Yzerman was 30 when they finally go it done. Leading up to that he was looked at as an underachiever and a bad leader. There is also the reported Yashin/Yzerman trade that was being discussed.

Teams can't get it done, until they do. Eichel was looked at as a guy that couldn't get it done until a few months ago. Perception changes really quickly.

Sure, things can change quickly. But there are some big differences. I'll bring up two of the more common justifications I've heard "Look how long it took Washington to win" and "Avs couldn't go deep until they won" for why this team can/will win.

And while it's true Washington and to some extent Colorado took some time to win a cup there are two main differences between them and the Leafs:

1. The "elite players" on those teams, Ovy/MacKinnon/Rantanen, were absolute dominant forces in the playoffs, despite losses. Our "elite players" Matthews/Marner have been playoff no shows.
2. While we've been extremely consistent as a very good team in the regular season, I would argue we've never even been an elite regular season team. The Caps and Avs had multiple division titles, conference titles and Presidents trophies under their belts before they won a cup. We won the laughing stock North but in the Atlantic we've not even won a division or even come close really, coming 2nd (24 pts back), 2nd (7pts back), 3rd (19 points back), 3rd (28pts back) over the last 5 years.

 

[Stephen]

That plus if we wanted to completely re-design the team in June, we could pull 8+ 1sts worth of value just selling off Matthews Marner and Nylander at rental prices without extensions. Whether that’s in futures or hockey trades, you could rework the team’s value into a configuration that you like better. Rielly is the only remaining longterm deal you’d have to work around.

If you want to re-design the Islanders, you wouldn’t get any value for most of their top-6 and would in fact need to spend several firsts dumping long term ageing grinder contracts with NTCs. Barzal, Sorokin, and Pelech are the only assets with any value worth speaking of.

Lou's Islanders are up Schitt's Creek. My argument is we all probably would have had more fun watching a team make their occasional deep playoff runs than Leafs playoff hockey, not a comparison of where the two teams are at now.

 

[Stephen]

I missed the start of this, was thinking it was a trade Nylander trade, but with Pageau being a key piece maybe Tavares agreed to waive?

I don't think there's any possibility the Leafs would move Nylander to the Islanders, to Lou. First, Willie is a Shanahan draft guy. His first significant addition. And he fired Lou. Of all the destinations and all the various combinations, the Islanders just wouldn't have the things you'd want back.

 

[thusk]

I like him too but Lindholm is 29 so this deal is his final opportunity to cash out. There is a chance that you would be buying all declining years for that $8M per and thats a much better gamble if your other core players are not all stepping into their own max contracts. He was 2.11 pp60 in 22-23 and people want to run Tavares out of town for 2.09.

Linholm is amount best defensive foward in NHL

At egal salary i taking lindholm over nylander anytime... so if leafs can get lindholm at 8 M unstead of nylander at 10 m, it would be a steal

Last 2 season
Pts/60 at 5v5
2'37 vs 2,29
goal/60
1,07 vs 0,98

One having a pretty huge defensive impact and the second one is trash

So sure youre losing some offensive but your drastically raising your defensive game

 

[Burnie97]

Hagel looked rough when he was first traded to Tampa but really settled in this past season, I expect the same from Jeannot.

Hagel was surprising but I still feel like Tampa is on the decline. Boston too.

I thought this would happen last year but really with a few smart moves... leafs should be challenging for the division this year finally.

It's crazy how good Boston and Tampa have been during the cores years. Not giving them an excuse... they should of done more by now but it's been a tough go.

Very similar to the Bluejays in ways.

 

[nuck]

Yes, well until the miraculous transformation occurs, these guys don't have it. Their level of playoff underachievement is historic at this point. We're look up to see other skilled underachievers like Ottawa and San Jose. They never figured it out either.

So the question is really, are fans level of enjoyment better if the team went on a few fun playoff runs, or cling onto some notion of Leafs exceptionalism while standing around the starting line? No wrong answers.

I tend to think it may be the coach that doesn't have it rather than miraculously all his players. Thats a good thing in a way because he has to be learning more each year, so he either gets over the hump, perhaps by finally having a lineup of his preference, or takes a dump like he started to last November and gets replaced by someone better, or they get to the playoffs and fizzle again. So thats two potential chances out of three they can have that different outcome.

One other huge thing is they did not get the goaltending in 22. 21 or 17. .898, . 897. .896. Three other years they had it. But in 2018 Kadri sabotaged them and in 2020 JT gets that knee to the head. Goalies that were discarded because they were not good enough may have been good enough in those years. But for missing Kadri and JT two of those three strong goalie playoffs could have played out differently. When you are going into a game 7 without a key player the club is hobbled. When the club is missing these key players for multiple games in two series its worse because maybe neither even gets to the 7th.

This doesn't answer your question but it seems very reasonable that the outcome was not lineup or coach related on those two occasions. Just extremely shitty luck. To me that separates the team from being the same as a bunch of players that can't do in the post season it every year. There is strong evidence they were capable. The playoff runs are overdue but as a fan, those 2018 and 2020 playoffs tell me they may have actually figured it out but fate did a last minute claw back.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Lou's Islanders are up Schitt's Creek. My argument is we all probably would have had more fun watching a team make their occasional deep playoff runs than Leafs playoff hockey, not a comparison of where the two teams are at now.

There’s unlimited combinations of players that would have been more fun to watch in the playoffs, I’m just saying if we wanted to we could sell off everything for picks, buy every Islanders player, and have half the picks left over to buy even more Palmieris and Pageaus with.

I wouldn’t prefer watching a few cinderella runs if it meant probably the better part of a decade recovering from Lou once the core finishes aging into the back ends of their deals.

If our build ends up collapsing back into the Burke/Nonis years, sure I’d rather the ECF runs at that point. We still have a high enough asset net worth that we can turn it into a winning group if we liquidate it and spend it on another style of team, I’ll take the potential of that over a non-cup bird in the hand + borderline guaranteed ugly rebuild decade.

 

[nuck]

He doesn’t need to repeat his first season. If he can put up 15ish goals and 30is point in a 3rd line roll it’s a great deal. Guys who are top level heavyweights and can actually contribute as effective players on the ice are incredibly rare. These guys will always be overpaid.
People are too hung up on the price Tampa paid to acquire him.

The 5.8% shooting isn't likely to be repeated but neither is 19%. The other parts of his game were there after the trade. Few giveways, a ton of hits and no soft offensive deployment. No doubt he can contribute but he does need some kind of offensive bounce back.

 

[Stephen]

There’s unlimited combinations of players that would have been more fun to watch in the playoffs, I’m just saying if we wanted to we could sell off everything for picks, buy every Islanders player, and have half the picks left over to buy even more Palmieris and Pageaus with.

I wouldn’t prefer watching a few cinderella runs if it meant probably the better part of a decade recovering from Lou once the core finishes aging into the back ends of their deals.

If our build ends up collapsing back into the Burke/Nonis years, sure I’d rather the ECF runs at that point. We still have a high enough asset net worth that we can turn it into a winning group if we liquidate it and spend it on another style of team, I’ll take the potential of that over a non-cup bird in the hand + borderline guaranteed ugly rebuild decade.

Like I've said from the jump, I've never really felt any real jealousy or admiration for the Lou Islander because they don't have a particularly high championship ceiling.

Their deep playoff runs remind me of the Clark Gilmour days a little bit where we really didn't have the top end talent to finish the climb but could go on a run. I don't like the way they spend their money on mid tier guys, but they don't have top tier guys and other strengths like middle class depth, chemistry this team lacks... but watching their runs would have been more fun than what we've seen since 2017.

That said, it does depend on how bullish you are on this core group's long term upside. If the flip the switch theory ever comes true, okay they've proven all the doubters wrong. But at this point it's like watching the Lord of the Rings and they're still in the f'ing Shire by the third movie and you wonder if they'll ever go on their adventure.