Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[WTFMAN99]

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If I had 2 bullets and I was in a room with Dubas, Lou, Pridham and Hunter, I would shoot Dubas twice.

(joke stolen from the office sitcom)

 

[Thornbury]

Based on what? AM still not signed
WN still not signed for starters..

You've been away?

Based on what are you assuming Shanaplan is calling the shots, other than cynicism.

 

[geo25]

Based on what are you assuming Shanaplan is calling the shots, other than cynicism.

Shanny is certainly calling the shots...always has. How can one not be cynical about this team...its been a joke since He took the helm.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Toronto Maple Leafs' Kyle Dubas has reportedly been very active on the draft room floor and the Leafs have now made a trade. Toronto has traded their 24th overall pick in the 2015 NHL draft to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchnage for the 29th overall pick as well as the 61st overall pick in the draft. The Flyers obviously thought highly of the player they wanted at 24, and that player is Travis Konecny. We will continue to monitor the draft closely as trades continue to filter in.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Dubas looking to one-up 2015 in first draft as GM

If 2015 is any indication, Kyle Dubas will be working the phones hard to land the best talent available for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2018 NHL Draft.

tipofthetower.com

It’s been well documented that during the 2015 draft, Dubas — who was serving as the interim general manager — was the man who worked the phones and got the Leafs a few extra picks in the draft.

Dubas had an extra pick in the back-end of the first round. He traded the 24th overall pick for the 29th and 61st overall selection. Dubas then moved the 29th pick to Columbus, for the 34th and 68th selections.

Looks like Dubas did a good job turning 24th overall into 34th + 61st + 68th.

 

[VanW27]

The GM has no significant influence on who's picked and if they do they probably shouldn't be a GM - stick to scouting.

The only influence would be a general approach on the type of team and player the organization values.

If you want to criticize the overall approach (too many little guys who can't skate), or the long term results as the guy in charge of hiring and firing then fair game. But criticizing a co-AGM about specific picks (Dermott vs Konecny) is ridiculous.

 

[ToneDog]

Looks like Dubas did a good job turning 24th overall into 34th + 61st + 68th.

Too bad the right move was to draft Konecky at 24.

 

[Mckay]

Looks like Dubas did a good job turning 24th overall into 34th + 61st + 68th.

Yeah, It's didn't work out in hindsight but it was a pretty good move. Konecny could have easily been a bust like most #24 overall picks.

To get 3 picks for 1 gave them 3 chances at a NHLer... didn't work out, like I said.

 

[kb]

Hindsight those were some bad choices but at that time Dermott was highly touted

Not to mention we just drafted Marner and we had not much in our farm on defensive prospects . We needed to a puck moving prospect and word had it Dermott would be available.
The fact that a player name Aho went ahead of him doesn't help either

Bracco was also very highly touted and many were surprised he dropped to late 2nd

Also Konecny had injury issues coming out of juniors. I think he missed most of the OHL playoffs

Exactly. The only value some posters ever provide is hindsight. The rest of their head is often in that same vicinity too

 

[BertCorbeau]

Too bad the right move was to draft Konecky at 24.

Eh.. you could have made the trade and drafted Aho while also drafting Cirelli and Kolesar

Drafting Aho in 2015 likely means no need to sign Tavares

 

[ToneDog]

Eh.. you could have made the trade and drafted Aho while also drafting Cirelli and Kolesar

Drafting Aho in 2015 likely means no need to sign Tavares

100% (kind of like when Anaheim moved down and took Rakell and Gibson) but when was the last time we hit that kind of a HR? Most of the time a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[mydnyte]

Wahlstrom was not half the player Willie was last year and that is why the Isles consider the move. With him its the quality of your pro scouting and whether the 35 game sample is enough to rely on. He isn't a banger but he hits as much as Willie, Kerf, and Jarnkrok combined and his 2.20 pp60 is better than Willie in 21-22. Big guy with a big shot and goes hard to the net. This might have been his coming out party but for the injury.

Of course its a gamble, as is the contract length you would sign him to. But he could be the value contract the club doesn't have for a top 6 talent to offset the milking they will soon be getting from MM and AM. He strikes me as guy who could have an impact in the playoffs.

As far as Pageau goes I don't know if he is actually on the table but he is a legit 3c and not a cap dump. Great on the faceoff and Isles #1 forward for pk ice time which has been better than the Leafs the last two years. Plus 8.5 hits per 60 last year and only 28% oz starts last season. He easy pushes Kampf to 4c and Domi to the wing. I just don't know that they can make the salary fit without some retention by Lou.

Pageau is completely a cap dump.
5 mil for 3 more seasons isnt what you pay a #3C who hasn’t broke 40 points since 2015

 

[Martin Skoula]

100% (kind of like when Anaheim moved down and took Rakell and Gibson) but when was the last time we hit that kind of a HR? Most of the time a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

In a draft year like 2015 or 2003 the trade down is almost always way better odds at coming out of the draft with one or more stars than picking higher.

If it’s a thin draft year, use the picks on rentals. If it’s a normal draft year, stand pat at your pick unless someone drops or all your guys get taken. If it’s a generationally deep draft, stock up on as many top-90 picks as possible even if it means trading down.

 

[cyris]

Late to the party but funny to see Kerfoot get no raise and Holl fall short of the 4m predictions despite their tire pumping from some. Both given deals by desperate basement teams who likely had to overpay their actual market value.

I kinda see this in the opposite way.

Despite years of being told these were negative value assets and we would have to pay someone to take either one of them. One signed for the same cap hit and the other got a significant raise.

I’m no fan of either player and am happy the team moved on from both of them but their contracts weren’t as bad as the consensus seemed to imply

 

[Menzinger]

Tried googling our last arbitration cases. The names Mikheyev, Bernier, Reimer and Fraser came up. They all settled before arbitration on 1 or 2 year deals. I wonder if that happens again over the next week with Samsonov.

A 1 or 2 year deal at 3.05M per and Murray on LTIR would work with the cap with a 21 man roster.

I'd expect it will be settled before too. Apparently the actual hearings can be a bit unpleasant with both sides preferring to avoid if possible

 

[VanW27]

Pageau is completely a cap dump.
5 mil for 3 more seasons isnt what you pay a #3C who hasn’t broke 40 points since 2015

Not saying Pageau is particularly valuable, personally I'd say he has modest value, but that's a misleading way to say that.

The last 4 seasons:

67GP - 42pts (I assume you missed this one because he had 40 with the Sens then 2 with the Isles)
54GP - 28pts
77GP - 39pts
70GP - 40pts

I like Pageau and think it was/is a good contract overall. That said I'm not really interested in taking on the back half of that deal at 31/32/33, at least not as something that holds value.

 

[Menzinger]

Not saying Pageau is particularly valuable, personally I'd say he has modest value, but that's a misleading way to say that.

The last 4 seasons:

67GP - 42pts (I assume you missed this one because he had 40 with the Sens then 2 with the Isles)
54GP - 28pts
77GP - 39pts
70GP - 40pts

I like Pageau and think it was/is a good contract overall. That said I'm not really interested in taking on the back half of that deal at 31/32/33, at least not as something that holds value.

I think you could get much better bang for your buck just having the capspace in free agency than locked in on a multi year deal with him

 

[Martin Skoula]

I don’t get the Pageau idea, is he significantly better than Kampf defensively? He’s not going to get offensive minutes, offensive wingers, or PP time here. 15 more points out of your shutdown C isn’t worth paying him 5 mil through his mid 30s.

 

[Stephen]

I think you could get much better bang for your buck just having the capspace in free agency than locked in on a multi year deal with him

Pageau is a classic Lou contract locking in a middle of the lineup guy for too much term, too much money. For the most part they are not glamorous, and when you look how the Isles had to get rid of Devon Toews to fit him in, it was brutal and we can all turn our noses up on it. But... the upside of having a team full of contracts like Pageau is the Isles really do have a more cohesive sense of being a team vs top heavy rosters with a starting 5 and an NBA bench like us.

 

[Stephen]

I don’t get the Pageau idea, is he significantly better than Kampf defensively? He’s not going to get offensive minutes, offensive wingers, or PP time here. 15 more points out of your shutdown C isn’t worth paying him 5 mil through his mid 30s.

Pageau is essentially Kerfoot with a personality. I would stay away.

 

[Menzinger]

Pageau is a classic Lou contract locking in a middle of the lineup guy for too much term, too much money. For the most part they are not glamorous, and when you look how the Isles had to get rid of Devon Toews to fit him in, it was brutal and we can all turn our noses up on it. But... the upside of having a team full of contracts like Pageau is the Isles really do have a more cohesive sense of being a team vs top heavy rosters with a starting 5 and an NBA bench like us.

Though ultimately those teams often just end up treading water unless they get the lucky bounces at the right time.

Regardless if a third liner comes back as part of a package for Nylander, it better be a young guy with room to grow into something more than a vet with a contract like that

 

[Martin Skoula]

Pageau is essentially Kerfoot with a personality. I would stay away.

Just looked into it deeper, Pageau had 48 goals against 40 goals for in 930 minutes at ES, Kampf had 39 against 40 for in 1030 ES minutes with more brutal zone starts (23 and 27% last two years vs Pageau at mid 30s to mid 40s last few years).

And this is with Kampf playing in front of a defense with 2 of Mete, Benn, and Hollowell for a stretch in front of Woll/Samsonov/Murray vs playing in front of a big physical D in front of Sorokin.

 

[Menzinger]

On the higher side based on comparables

 

[LeafChief]

On the higher side based on comparables

He'll be an interesting one to follow. His late season injury definitely played a role in his playoff performance. With that said, he was having a pretty shit year prior to the injury as well.

Was very good the year before though.

 

[Stephen]

Though ultimately those teams often just end up treading water unless they get the lucky bounces at the right time.

Regardless if a third liner comes back as part of a package for Nylander, it better be a young guy with room to grow into something more than a vet with a contract like that

Yeah, I would liken the New York Islanders and their deep playoff runs to what we saw in Toronto back during the Burns/Fletcher days. Went a lot farther in the playoffs than a team like Detroit but didn't have the horses to get over the hump. This Leafs build doesn't appear to have that Detroit upside either. So it's like do you want a veteran laden overachiever in the post season that won't win. Or a team with so much on paper potential, but flames out in painful fashion every year.

 

[Stephen]

On the higher side based on comparables

It's a steal if he's a 24 goal scorer and a disaster if he's a 6 goal scorer.