Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[kb]

Agreed - with the way the NTCs were handed out, Nylander will likely be the scapegoat for Dubas' incompetence.

Tavares never should have been signed, so Pietrangelo or Hamilton could have been signed instead.

So you think it would have been that easy? Keep the cap space and wait, with guarantees they will sign?

Come on, this is not a good take on any level. The cap space would be gone no matter what.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you think it would have been that easy? Keep the cap space and wait, with guarantees they will sign?
Come on, this is not a good take on any level. The cap space would be gone no matter what.

Yep. If we didn't sign Tavares, we still had to replace that impact we were losing in the 2018 offseason in other ways, and get more than 2 NHL caliber centers in the organization. Which probably would have cost us more than Tavares, considering that even just re-signing a departing Bozak and JVR would have cost 12. People seem to forget that Tavares wasn't as much about adding on to our offense so much as it was about a more efficient way to replace and improve on the offense we were losing.

We're not just going to sit on an unused 10m for 2 or 3 years while our team gets worse waiting for an extremely unlikely scenario of players nobody expected to be available not only being available but willing to sign here at a price that worked for us.

The idea seems to be that we needed to not sign Tavares, so we could improve our defense. But signing Tavares didn't stop us from adding big defensive pieces like Muzzin and Brodie, and massively improving our defense as fast as we realistically could have, Tavares or not. So it's a weird argument.

 

[notDatsyuk]

So you think it would have been that easy? Keep the cap space and wait, with guarantees they will sign?

Come on, this is not a good take on any level. The cap space would be gone no matter what.

Why assume the money would be available if we didn't have Nylander, but not available if we didn't have Tavares?

That's not a good take on any level.

But you may have a point - if Dubas hadn't wasted the money on Tavares he may well have wasted it somewhere else.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Why assume the money would be available if we didn't have Nylander, but not available if we didn't have Tavares?

That's not a good take on any level.

But you may have a point - if Dubas hadn't wasted the money on Tavares he may well have wasted it somewhere else.

Why not look at Brodie, you know the guy we signed the same summer instead of Pietrangelo to do the same job? Brodie + Kerfoot + Holl vs Pietrangelo + league min LW + league min RD is a wash on cap.

 

[LeafEgo]

Yep. If we didn't sign Tavares, we still had to replace that impact we were losing in the 2018 offseason in other ways, and get more than 2 NHL caliber centers in the organization. Which probably would have cost us more than Tavares, considering that even just re-signing a departing Bozak and JVR would have cost 12. People seem to forget that Tavares wasn't as much about adding on to our offense so much as it was about a more efficient way to replace and improve on the offense we were losing.

We're not just going to sit on an unused 10m for 2 or 3 years while our team gets worse waiting for an extremely unlikely scenario of players nobody expected to be available not only being available but willing to sign here at a price that worked for us.

The idea seems to be that we needed to not sign Tavares, so we could improve our defense. But signing Tavares didn't stop us from adding big defensive pieces like Muzzin and Brodie, and massively improving our defense as fast as we realistically could have, Tavares or not. So it's a weird argument.

The issue wasn't with spending the cap, it was spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC.

We could have been patient, and more agile in the short term, and replaced the impact that was lost with more flexible contracts until a better franchise altering peice became available.

Don't know if that would have landed us Petro or Dougie or who else may have been an option if we went down that road, but it was the more sensible path to take then forcing something flashy that didn't make sense. That seems pretty apparent at this point.

 

[Smif]

I don’t fault the player because the GM is a poor negotiator

The GM qas considered a players GM imo, the first of his kind. The only player not to take him to the cleaners was Nylander and I think that whole situation scared the crap out of Dubas.

 

[Fogelhund]

Why not look at Brodie, you know the guy we signed the same summer instead of Pietrangelo to do the same job? Brodie + Kerfoot + Holl vs Pietrangelo + league min LW + league min RD is a wash on cap.

While it’s fun to play armchair quarterback with hindsight, was there any indication that Pietrangelo had any interest in playing here… at all? His wife is from the States, her family is in the States, they have triplets… it seems unlikely.

 

[VanW27]

Why not look at Brodie, you know the guy we signed the same summer instead of Pietrangelo to do the same job? Brodie + Kerfoot + Holl vs Pietrangelo + league min LW + league min RD is a wash on cap.

While it’s fun to play armchair quarterback with hindsight, was there any indication that Pietrangelo had any interest in playing here… at all?

Further to the second point, while Kerfoot and Holl were whipping boys and perhaps out of their depth in the roles they were used for they were the 3C and 4D for much of the last 4 years on very good teams, and certainly better than league min players (both just signed for ~3.5 million with other teams).

If you subtract them for league min guys you need someone to play those roles, and those are pretty important spots in the lineup.

 

[Martin Skoula]

While it’s fun to play armchair quarterback with hindsight, was there any indication that Pietrangelo had any interest in playing here… at all? His wife is from the States, her family is in the States, they have triplets… it seems unlikely.

I don’t think Pietrangelo had any desire to come to Toronto barring an significant overpayment, I’m just saying it’s weird to blame contracts signed years prior for “not being able to afford him” when the money to do so at the Vegas cap hit was pretty easily available to us without sacrificing much depth or any core pieces.

 

[LeafEgo]

I don’t think Pietrangelo had any desire to come to Toronto barring an significant overpayment, I’m just saying it’s weird to blame contracts signed years prior for “not being able to afford him” when the money to do so at the Vegas cap hit was pretty easily available to us without sacrificing much depth or any core pieces.

We already had a problem with depth, so that would be going further in the wrong direction. It was about getting the team and cap structure balanced, so prior contracts come into play.

A hypothetical Petro would have been more valuable to the team than JT, with the added benefit of more cap space to further balance out the system.

 

[Martin Skoula]

We already had a problem with depth, so that would be going further in the wrong direction. It was about getting the team and cap structure balanced, so prior contracts come into play.

A hypothetical Petro would have been more valuable to the team than JT, with the added benefit of more cap space to further balance out the system.

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Bogosian

Vs

Muzzin-Pietrangelo
Rielly-Schenn
Dermott-Bogosian

Which one of those would you say is deeper? Is swapping Kerfoot for Verhaeghe, Czarnik, or any of the other million dollar UFA Cs, or just actually playing Barabanov and Brooks really relevant for competing?

The alternative was keeping Tavares’ money either unused for two years or spent on 2-year max contracts for mercenaries we would have lost once Pietro signed anyway in the off chance he actually wanted to come here.

 

[LeafEgo]

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Bogosian

Vs

Muzzin-Pietrangelo
Rielly-Schenn
Dermott-Bogosian

Which one of those would you say is deeper? Is swapping Kerfoot for Verhaeghe, Czarnik, or any of the other million dollar UFA Cs, or just actually playing Barabanov and Brooks really relevant for competing?

The alternative was keeping Tavares’ money either unused for two years or spent on 2-year max contracts for mercenaries we would have lost once Pietro signed anyway in the off chance he actually wanted to come here.

It's just core 4 plus Petro for almost 50M is not as good as core 3 plus Kadri plus Petro for closer to 40M. It's that JT/D money swap in particular that would have given us a big boost in the right direction - the JT contract is important. The final D could come together in many ways with the extra monies.

Just a high level view of things, not to get into a Kadri discussion, or even whether Petro in particular would have worked out. Just better future team construction options would have been available with patience and timing the window.

It wouldn't be quite as rigid as strictly 2 year max mercenaries, but there is some truth that building the long term foundation would have been delayed, with a focus on getting it right.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It's just core 4 plus Petro for almost 50M is not as good as core 3 plus Kadri plus Petro for closer to 40M. It's that JT/D money swap in particular that would have given us a big boost in the right direction - the JT contract is important. The final D could come together in many ways with the extra monies.

Just a high level view of things, not to get into a Kadri discussion, or even whether Petro in particular would have worked out. Just better future team construction options would have been available with patience and timing the window.

It wouldn't be quite as rigid as strictly 2 year max mercenaries, but there is some truth that building the long term foundation would have been delayed, with a focus on getting it right.

To your point about getting the foundation right even at the cost of delays, I don’t know that many cup winners are actually built that way even though it obviously makes sense on paper. Tampa had their foundation with a top pick #1C, 2nd overall #1D, first round pick #1G, but the reason they won was pulling a superstar winger and a better 1C in the 2nd/3rd rounds after their 1st/2nd overall structure didn’t take them anywhere meaningful. Washington had a structure built out for a decade and a half and eventually won because they struck gold on facing a Cinderella expansion team after finally beating Pittsburgh on a coin flip. St Louis had a competitive structure for years until it started falling apart, then a no-name goalie got called up and took them on an insane run from last place in the league to a cup. Colorado needed to fail hard enough to luck into Makar at 4th overall for their structure to click.

Meanwhile Carolina has probably has the best and most logical cap structure, depth through the lineup at all positions, unlimited prospect depth, but still can’t break through.

In a sport with bounces this random, I think you just need to make the best with what you have in the moment and get as many cracks at the can as possible before your core ages out. In a world where the Leafs aren’t the most cursed team in sports we should have had a free completely flukey path to the cup final in the Covid playoffs. Even if Tavares wasn’t the optimal bang for your buck spend, he had a better shot of being an impact piece in that run than a mishmash of middle class filler pieces. You know, until the one of the curses did its thing.

 

[LeafEgo]

To your point about getting the foundation right even at the cost of delays, I don’t know that many cup winners are actually built that way even though it obviously makes sense on paper. Tampa had their foundation with a top pick #1C, 2nd overall #1D, first round pick #1G, but the reason they won was pulling a superstar winger and a better 1C in the 2nd/3rd rounds after their 1st/2nd overall structure didn’t take them anywhere meaningful. Washington had a structure built out for a decade and a half and eventually won because they struck gold on facing a Cinderella expansion team after finally beating Pittsburgh on a coin flip. St Louis had a competitive structure for years until it started falling apart, then a no-name goalie got called up and took them on an insane run from last place in the league to a cup. Colorado needed to fail hard enough to luck into Makar at 4th overall for their structure to click.

Meanwhile Carolina has probably has the best and most logical cap structure, depth through the lineup at all positions, unlimited prospect depth, but still can’t break through.

In a sport with bounces this random, I think you just need to make the best with what you have in the moment and get as many cracks at the can as possible before your core ages out. In a world where the Leafs aren’t the most cursed team in sports we should have had a free completely flukey path to the cup final in the Covid playoffs. Even if Tavares wasn’t the optimal bang for your buck spend, he had a better shot of being an impact piece in that run than a mishmash of middle class filler pieces. You know, until the one of the curses did its thing.

Its a great point, preparing a blueprint and executing in hockey is not as simple as I've implied - you're typically dealing with fast paced changing dynamics year to year, and often it's making the right pivots and pushing through the chaos - getting as close to what you want at the right time. Involves a lot of luck.

I do feel like Toronto was in a very unique situation five years ago. I can't think of another franchise that pulled out of a rebuild quite like that. The options for preparing a cup run were endless, but quickly diminished.

We announced our entering the contender window with JT, and after five years we never ended up contending once. That's crazy.

What went wrong to produce that unprecedented level of dysfunction? Becaue something did. I point to a lot of things, but the JT contract and the domino effect from the signing is the easiest to substantiate. And once that was done, the option of fitting Petro in anyways because we could, was less valuable to the teams prospects with JT already on the books.

 

[Legion34]

I don’t think Pietrangelo had any desire to come to Toronto barring an significant overpayment, I’m just saying it’s weird to blame contracts signed years prior for “not being able to afford him” when the money to do so at the Vegas cap hit was pretty easily available to us without sacrificing much depth or any core pieces.

Petro himself came on tsn and said he wanted to.

Whether it was his first choice or he would have taken 8.8 are different questions

 

[notDatsyuk]

Why not look at Brodie, you know the guy we signed the same summer instead of Pietrangelo to do the same job? Brodie + Kerfoot + Holl vs Pietrangelo + league min LW + league min RD is a wash on cap.

So we signed them without the extra $11M (and it hasn't helped), does that mean if we had $11M more we wouldn't have signed anything better?

 

[Dekes For Days]

The issue wasn't with spending the cap, it was spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC.
We could have been patient, and more agile in the short term, and replaced the impact that was lost with more flexible contracts until a better franchise altering peice became available.
Don't know if that would have landed us Petro or Dougie or who else may have been an option if we went down that road, but it was the more sensible path to take then forcing something flashy that didn't make sense.

The issue wasn't with spending the cap or spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC. The issue is that directly after spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC, the world experienced a once-in-a-century global pandemic that shut down the league and created a billion+ dollar player debt that the league decided to solve by temporarily changing the cap formula and unexpectedly stagnating the cap for years, eating at the cap space we would have had for further depth.

We can discuss what pathways may have been better with the benefit of hindsight, but Tavares wasn't just something flashy that didn't make sense. Our organization was starved for centers. We had 2 NHL caliber ones throughout the whole organization, top to bottom, and one of them was below average for the role we were slotting him in, and kept getting suspended. We were also losing a lot of offense that offseason, and the depth replacement options weren't pretty, and we were left pretty much nothing internally. We were able to address multiple things with the Tavares signing, and elevate the quality of our team.

I don't think people really realize the bad state we were in. They were still on a high from an inflated 2017-2018, and I don't think people were prepared to take steps back.
Also, the idea that we could just wait around until "a better franchise altering piece became available" is ridiculous. A Tavares-caliber player becoming available, let alone at his age, had been historically rare. We had one that filled holes, that was open to signing here at a reasonable price, while we were looking to be competitive, and directly prior to when the cap was supposed to skyrocket.

 

[LeafEgo]

The issue wasn't with spending the cap or spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC. The issue is that directly after spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC, the world experienced a once-in-a-century global pandemic that shut down the league and created a billion+ dollar player debt that the league decided to solve by temporarily changing the cap formula and unexpectedly stagnating the cap for years, eating at the cap space we would have had for further depth.

We can discuss what pathways may have been better with the benefit of hindsight, but Tavares wasn't just something flashy that didn't make sense. Our organization was starved for centers. We had 2 NHL caliber ones throughout the whole organization, top to bottom, and one of them was below average for the role we were slotting him in, and kept getting suspended. We were also losing a lot of offense that offseason, and the depth replacement options weren't pretty, and we were left pretty much nothing internally. We were able to address multiple things with the Tavares signing, and elevate the quality of our team.

I don't think people really realize the bad state we were in. They were still on a high from an inflated 2017-2018, and I don't think people were prepared to take steps back.
Also, the idea that we could just wait around until "a better franchise altering piece became available" is ridiculous. A Tavares-caliber player becoming available, let alone at his age, had been historically rare. We had one that filled holes, that was open to signing here at a reasonable price, while we were looking to be competitive, and directly prior to when the cap was supposed to skyrocket.

It was unfortunate that we committed half our cap prior to the epidemic. The remainder would have turned over at new pay rates same as every other team, and other teams would have had pre covid signings as well. Ironically the disproportionate loss of cap increase to the Leafs as a result of the freeze was probably the same as the FA tax we paid to acquire JT.

We were coming out of the dark ages with generational 1C Matty and cup capable 2C Kadri. We also had the possibility of developing Willy into a C - may have had a very different player today. It wasn't a crisis that required us to desperately attack free agency and suffer all the downside that came with it. We ended up stacked at center for a year or two while the whole program fell apart.

Franchise altering peice wasn't intended to mean a JT caliber player, just committing to a high end player(s) with a long term high value contract(s).

 

[Mess]

You negotiate down from the 13.8 not give up the term.

You would hope an NHL GM would understand that and know the difference between RFA years and UFA years.

Matthews offered his RFA years at a ridiculous number of $9 mil per but that was his high ask also that you negotiate down from. However even if we use Matthews number

Somebody should have explained to Dubas that the first 4 years coming out of ELC are RFA cost controllable years and then starting year 5 do you start buying UFA expensive years.

So lets do the Math using $9 mil for RFA years (first 4) and then $15 mil for UFA years.

So 5 year contract = $9 mil X 4 (RFA years)[=$36 mil total] + $15 mil X 1 UFA years = 5 years at $51 mil total = $10.2 mil AAV
So 6 year contract = $9 mil X 4 (RFA years)[=$36 mil total] + $15 mil X 2 UFA years = 6 years at $66 mil total = $11.0 mil AAV
So 7 year contract = $9 mil X 4 (RFA years)[=$36 mil total] + $15 mil X 3 UFA years = 7 years at $81 mil total = $11.57 mil AAV ... Matthews currently at $11.634 mil for 5 years more than 7 year rate.
So 8 year contract = $9 mil X 4 (RFA years)[=$36 mil total] + $15 mil X 4 UFA years = 8 years at $96 mil total = $12.0 mil AAV

At Matthews current AAV he should be on a 7 year deal not 5.
So Dubas offers Matthews a 5 year at $11.634 mil deal when for $12 mil AAV the Leaf should have had him for full 8 years with a real GM and a litle common sense.

Reference point McDavid = 8 years @ $100 mil total = $12.5 AAV would have placed Matthews #2 OA in highest AAV but for all 8 years.

 

[The Management]

The issue wasn't with spending the cap or spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC. The issue is that directly after spending it on a seven year asset with a NMC, the world experienced a once-in-a-century global pandemic that shut down the league and created a billion+ dollar player debt that the league decided to solve by temporarily changing the cap formula and unexpectedly stagnating the cap for years, eating at the cap space we would have had for further depth.

Yep. The cap went up 6% in June of 2018, and we signed Tavares one month later. In the five years which followed, the cap raised, cumulatively, just 4.96%. The timing was unbelievably bad, and it was not something even remotely foreseeable when the contract was signed.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It was unfortunate that we committed half our cap prior to the epidemic. The remainder would have turned over at new pay rates same as every other team, and other teams would have had pre covid signings as well. Ironically the disproportionate loss of cap increase to the Leafs as a result of the freeze was probably the same as the FA tax we paid to acquire JT.

We were coming out of the dark ages with generational 1C Matty and cup capable 2C Kadri. We also had the possibility of developing Willy into a C - may have had a very different player today. It wasn't a crisis that required us to desperately attack free agency and suffer all the downside that came with it. We ended up stacked at center for a year or two while the whole program fell apart.

Franchise altering peice wasn't intended to mean a JT caliber player, just committing to a high end player(s) with a long term high value contract(s).

We had Matthews and Kadri. That's it. In the entire organization. That was or had any hope of being a capable NHL center. Nylander is not a center.
And Kadri outside of his fluke 2021-2022 was not exactly your ideal cup caliber 2C, and he wasn't much use suspended.

It was something that needed solving, as well as replacing the impact of our departing depth that we had no internal replacements for. We didn't need to solve it with Tavares, but solving it in other ways would have made us worse and been quite expensive itself. And probably still would have required term.

We didn't "desperately attack free agency". We had a rare opportunity to add an elite player that wanted to come here for a reasonable deal, that filled a lot of holes and elevated our team during a competitive phase, right before a skyrocketing cap. The pandemic and resulting impacts are the only reason it's even a thought. Otherwise, we'd probably be talking about how good of a signing Tavares turned out to be, and how well he's held up compared to past UFA signings. I'm not sure what "franchise altering piece" you were holding out for.

And the program didn't fall apart. Even with all of the unprecedented obstacles, we had some of the best teams this franchise has ever seen, and certainly the best in the cap era.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs have 8 picks in the next draft?

Hmm?

That will make watching draft day 2 worth watching.

 

[Stephen]

I wouldn't say he's a Leafs hater, but he doesn't suffer fools gladly. He has a more interesting style of writing than a lot of sports writers.

Most of what he says in that article is what a lot of us here have been saying all summer.

Think this is somewhat overstated. Looking at the trajectory of the Leafs they’ve been in a holding pattern since 2020 and I think one has to look at their relative position in division, conference and league to determine whether they are moving forward or backwards relative to others.

They have basically failed to build on their program since the Tavares signing in 2018. Nothing significant has been added to the program on a long term basis since then they would count as a building block. Maybe Knies can be that. Maybe some of the acquisitions this summer can grow into a long term role.

 

[Dreakmur]

Yep. The cap went up 6% in June of 2018, and we signed Tavares one month later. In the five years which followed, the cap raised, cumulatively, just 4.96%. The timing was unbelievably bad, and it was not something even remotely foreseeable when the contract was signed.

Yes, the cap went flat, but that also suppresses the contracts that were signed those years.

 

[nuck]

So we signed them without the extra $11M (and it hasn't helped), does that mean if we had $11M more we wouldn't have signed anything better?

No cap space also restricted trade possibilities. Whether they never touched another UFA they had young assets and all the the picks eventually dealt from 2019 to 2022 to acquire high value players who weren't on expensive UFA deals. I feel like KD had just sat down at the table with a big pile of chips in front of of him and felt a need to make the big splash and that was what was available. And with the extra millions he wasn't expecting to spend on the Big 3 he could deal with the Marleau money except it never played out that way.