Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[Dekes For Days]

You’ve omitted to address the current situation and chosen to speak only to the historical record.
You’ve also ignored that Marner was overpaid on his last contract and he did not sign for 8 years

The situation at the time was that no other mid-high tier player signed an 8 year deal coming off their ELC through the 2018 or 2019 offseasons, so it wasn't abnormal in a historical or recent context. And no, Marner was not overpaid. He earned a contract over 10m at terms less than 8 years.

 

[LeafSteel]

The situation at the time was that no other mid-high tier player signed an 8 year deal coming off their ELC through the 2018 or 2019 offseasons, so it wasn't abnormal in a historical or recent context. And no, Marner was not overpaid. He earned a contract over 10m at terms less than 8 years.

Again, ignoring that recent superstar signings were for max term contracts, while we are still hearing Matthews angling for shorter term contracts in anticipation of the cap going up, looking to renegotiate sooner for more money than is available now.

Great leader and team guy there. Just a complete Prince of a guy.

........ and yes, Marner is overpaid, and the fact that it isn't a max term contract at least only makes it worse.

Again, not going to bother and waste my time. As a poster, you have very little appeal and I see you as a deliberate disruption to the Leaf Forum more than an actual Maple Leafs fan.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again, ignoring that recent superstar signings were for max term contracts, while we are still hearing Matthews angling for shorter term contracts in anticipation of the cap going up, looking to renegotiate sooner for more money than is available now....

Well now that's shifting the goalposts. The tweet wasn't about their next contracts. It was able their current contracts.
It is true that most high tier UFAs have recently signed 7 or 8 year deals, but it's also true that we're in a very abnormal situation where the cap is artificially lowered below 50% of revenues, and the cap is about to skyrocket once we go back to normal. It's disappointing that Matthews supposedly doesn't want to sign for 8 years, but it's understandable, not as historically abnormal as people think, and he's earned the right to make that choice. And he's really the only one reportedly not looking for 8 years.

and yes, Marner is overpaid, and the fact that it isn't a max term contract at least only makes it worse.

He's not though. Not at the time, and not now. He got a contract, term considered, that is consistent with post-ELC history.

 

[Evilhomer]

No state tax teams start with 15% ish head start.
They can also mitigate.

The idea that Florida accountants don’t also try to maximize is silly.

I can’t speak to the NBA. But they don’t have the border to deal with that would affect earnings.

Plus they can re structure etc. I don’t know the nba rules. I do know the NHL rules which in a hard cap system put high tax teams at a disadvantage

According to actual people getting paid

Correct, they are all mitigating their tax exposure, regardless of jurisdiction. In places where base tax rates are low there is likely less structuring that needs to be done. Of course, it also depends on a player's situation. Someone with a spouse and kids may have more options depending on the tax laws in the relevant jurisdiction in terms of income splitting. But again, no player is avoiding a high profile team just because there are higher tax rates in the team's jurisdiction. Fans make too big a deal of it.

 

[egd27]

They didn't. They were reportedly open to a number of different terms, but 5-6 years was mutually agreed upon because the team needed to fit everybody in and the players knew that the cap was about to skyrocket. And it wasn't just the Leafs. There wasn't a single high-end player coming of their ELC that signed an 8 year contract in 2018 or 2019.

Unfortunately, there's a fake rumour started by an HFboard user about an offer that never existed and was never even reported floating around, and some are believing it to be fact.

Dylan Larkin, Brayden Point, Charlie McAvoy, Mark Stone, William Karlsson.

None of them high end enough ?

EDIT - I read the Capfriendly information incorrectly and am mistaken about them signing 8 years after ELC, they did sign for 8 while still RFA's, just not immediately after their ELC's.

 

[Legion34]

Dylan Larkin, Brayden Point, Charlie McAvoy, Mark Stone, William Karlsson.

None of them high end enough ?

???? None of them were on ELC right?

Point bridged.
Mcavoy was after
Stone was a ufa.
Karlson was lik 28 and expansion fodder which was ELC exempt

Or am I wrong

 

[Legion34]

Correct, they are all mitigating their tax exposure, regardless of jurisdiction. In places where base tax rates are low there is likely less structuring that needs to be done. Of course, it also depends on a player's situation. Someone with a spouse and kids may have more options depending on the tax laws in the relevant jurisdiction in terms of income splitting. But again, no player is avoiding a high profile team just because there are higher tax rates in the team's jurisdiction. Fans make too big a deal of it.

1.) every accountant should Maximize earnings. You can’t just act like the ones with advantages are not going to work just as hard or with enough work they will end up the same.

2.) you keep saying no high profile player avoids….. you don’t know that at all. You keep saying it. What we do know is that platers in high tax markets take less AAV.
Players in high tax markets may still go there but not for the same price.

3.) you have no idea how much of a big deal fans make of it. We do know what agents players GMs and media say and how big of a deal it is from them. Your “too big” is not a valid metric

 

[egd27]

???? None of them were on ELC right?

Point bridged.
Mcavoy was after
Stone was a ufa.
Karlson was lik 28 and expansion fodder which was ELC exempt

Or am I wrong

No you're correct, they were RFA's but not coming off ELC.

Guess that leaves Larkin.

 

[Legion34]

No you're correct, they were RFA's but not coming off ELC.

Guess that leaves Larkin.

He signed for 6 too right? He just signed again so he couldn’t have

 

[Evilhomer]

1.) every accountant should Maximize earnings. You can’t just act like the ones with advantages are not going to work just as hard or with enough work they will end up the same.

2.) you keep saying no high profile player avoids….. you don’t know that at all. You keep saying it. What we do know is that platers in high tax markets take less AAV.
Players in high tax markets may still go there but not for the same price.

3.) you have no idea how much of a big deal fans make of it. We do know what agents players GMs and media say and how big of a deal it is from them. Your “too big” is not a valid metric

You are right that I certainly don't know what goes into every player's decision. All I know is that the players my firm has acted for, whether NHL, NBA or MLB, have largely mitigated the higher tax rates in Ontario.

 

[egd27]

He signed for 6 too right? He just signed again so he couldn’t have

Lol......yea I read the the whole CapFriendly pages wrong. Oh well, guess mistakes do happen on these boards.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Unfortunately I can't read this but I know the writer is a notorious Leafs hater:

The Maple Leafs aren’t moving forward. In sports that means they are slipping backward

Only the Maple Leafs would mistake collapsing a house down on its head for a construction project

www.theglobeandmail.com

I wouldn't say he's a Leafs hater, but he doesn't suffer fools gladly. He has a more interesting style of writing than a lot of sports writers.

Most of what he says in that article is what a lot of us here have been saying all summer.

 

[Sypher04]

But again, no player is avoiding a high profile team just because there are higher tax rates in the team's jurisdiction. Fans make too big a deal of it.

I don’t know that’s often the fan the argument that is thrown around. I think it more centers around it being used to the benefit of good teams in no-tax states. It’s more a perception of imbalance than people thinking it’s stopping players from going to other places.

 

[Evilhomer]

I don’t know that’s often the fan the argument that is thrown around. I think it more centers around it being used to the benefit of good teams in no-tax states. It’s more a perception of imbalance than people thinking it’s stopping players from going to other places.

Maybe, but has it actually played out that way in any North American sport? I don't think it has in the NBA or the NFL., even acknowledging different cap structures. I'm not sure it even has in the NHL. We're talking about 5 or 6 NHL teams with low or no state taxes, and other than Tampa and Vegas none of the teams in those states have been setting the world on fire (I'm disregarding the Panthers this year because I don't think Cinderella runs should be factored). Tampa has never really signed any UFAs (and I don't imagine any of them stayed for tax reasons), and I don't think Vegas is drawing players because of their tax rate. Heck, I'm starting to think that climate factors pretty heavily in players' decisions these days, and I don't blame them one bit for that.

In any event, the Leafs certainly have no issue drawing players or ensuring that contracts are structured in the most tax-efficient manner possible.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dylan Larkin, Brayden Point, Charlie McAvoy, Mark Stone, William Karlsson.

Larkin signed a 5 year contract in 2018.
Point signed a 3 year bridge in 2019.
McAvoy signed a 3 year bridge in 2019.
Stone did not sign a post-ELC contract in 2018 or 2019.
Karlsson did not sign a post-ELC contract in 2018 or 2019.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

If Nylander is holding up Matthews from re-signing, the team should trade him now before it drags on too long.

All Nylander does is float around anyway. Hoping one of the best centres in the game feeds him an easy goal. Thanks 100% effort from Matthews and 0% effort from Nylander.

Lazy, lazy lazy.

The Leafs are spending $22M on defense. They have almost that in just two wingers alone. Of all four positions wings are least of importance.

A good rule of thumb is don't spend more on top four wings than on top four defense.

Contender teams are built from the net out. With exceptional defense. And strength down the middle.

Defense wins cups.

Pretender teams are built from the wings in. With soft defense. And questionable goaltending.

Which team does the Leafs sound like?

I really hope Treliving re-balances the roster. To prioritize defense and goaltending. So that the team isn't top heavy anymore.

A good way to do that is by trading Nylander.

 

[dubplatepressure]

If Nylander is holding up Matthews from re-signing, the team should trade him now before it drags on too long.

All Nylander does is float around anyway. Hoping one of the best centres in the game feeds him an easy goal. Thanks 100% effort from Matthews and 0% effort from Nylander.

Lazy, lazy lazy.

The Leafs are spending $22M on defense. They have almost that in just two wingers alone. Of all four positions wings are least of importance.

A good rule of thumb is don't spend more on top four wings than on top four defense.

Contender teams are built from the net out. With exceptional defense. And strength down the middle.

Defense wins cups.

Pretender teams are built from the wings in. With soft defense. And questionable goaltending.

Which team does the Leafs sound like?

I really hope Treliving re-balances the roster. To prioritize defense and goaltending. So that the team isn't top heavy anymore.

A good way to do that is by trading Nylander.

I don’t necessarily agree with your views on him but I do think trading him (or him walking) is inevitable.

 

[Thornbury]

I don’t necessarily agree with your views on him but I do think reading him (or him walking) is inevitable.

If Matthews is waiting for Nylander to sign, we have problems with #34 as well. Ideally, he would have signed a slightly below market deal to show he's committed to winning. Worrying that hasn't happened.

 

[conFABulator]

If Nylander is holding up Matthews from re-signing, the team should trade him now before it drags on too long.

All Nylander does is float around anyway. Hoping one of the best centres in the game feeds him an easy goal. Thanks 100% effort from Matthews and 0% effort from Nylander.

Lazy, lazy lazy.

The Leafs are spending $22M on defense. They have almost that in just two wingers alone. Of all four positions wings are least of importance.

A good rule of thumb is don't spend more on top four wings than on top four defense.

Contender teams are built from the net out. With exceptional defense. And strength down the middle.

Defense wins cups.

Pretender teams are built from the wings in. With soft defense. And questionable goaltending.

Which team does the Leafs sound like?

I really hope Treliving re-balances the roster. To prioritize defense and goaltending. So that the team isn't top heavy anymore.

A good way to do that is by trading Nylander.

I am not a "Trade Nylander" guy. I don't think he is "lazy, lazy, lazy" but I do agree that we should re-allocate budget from F to D and that trading WN might be the best way to do this.

If we can get a top 4 dman, picks and prospects and free up cap space to retain one or both of Bertuzzi and Domi next season then I believe this is a big win and an important step forward in reshaping this team.

Nylander and Timmins for Oleksiak and Wright? Or Nylander and Robertson for Pesce and Jarvis?

I obviously don't know if either of these scenarios are doable, but it is this type of deal that works well for us.

Domi Matthews Bertuzzi
Robertson Tavares Marner
Knies Kampf Jarnkrok
McMann Lafferty Reaves

Rielly Oleksiak
Brodie Klingberg
Giordano Liljegren

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I don’t necessarily agree with your views on him but I do think reading him (or him walking) is inevitable.

Thanks for the response.

They missed the opportunity to trade Marner. Matthews is too important. Tavares isn't going anywhere.

That leaves Nylander the odd one out.

Nylander is the only one that doesn't have a full NMC anyway. I think it was pretty obvious he was always gonna be the fall guy. He should have been traded years ago.

So Pietrangelo or Hamilton could have been signed instead

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I am not a "Trade Nylander" guy. I don't think he is "lazy, lazy, lazy" but I do agree that we should re-allocate budget from F to D and that trading WN might be the best way to do this.

If we can get a top 4 dman, picks and prospects and free up cap space to retain one or both of Bertuzzi and Domi next season then I believe this is a big win and an important step forward in reshaping this team.

Nylander and Timmins for Oleksiak and Wright? Or Nylander and Robertson for Pesce and Jarvis?

I obviously don't know if either of these scenarios are doable, but it is this type of deal that works well for us.

Domi Matthews Bertuzzi
Robertson Tavares Marner
Knies Kampf Jarnkrok
McMann Lafferty Reaves

Rielly Oleksiak
Brodie Klingberg
Giordano Liljegren

Thanks for the response.

I honestly don't know what Nylander's trade value would be. But I really like what you're thinking with these proposals. I'd like to see the Leafs make a predatory trade of aging players exiting their prime for younger upcoming talent on cheaper contracts too, but I don't expect that to happen any time soon.

If fact, if anything, history has taught to me to expect just the opposite.

 

[Legion34]

Lol......yea I read the the whole CapFriendly pages wrong. Oh well, guess mistakes do happen on these boards.

Yes no problem. I wasn’t judging we all do it

 

[geo25]

I wouldn't say he's a Leafs hater, but he doesn't suffer fools gladly. He has a more interesting style of writing than a lot of sports writers.

Most of what he says in that article is what a lot of us here have been saying all summer.

This guy has a refreshly, honest viewpoint. Says it as it is. Either the stars get what they want or they'll leave...I for one believe him & the evidence esp this past year is there as he reiterates...

 

[notDatsyuk]

If Nylander is holding up Matthews from re-signing, the team should trade him now before it drags on too long.

All Nylander does is float around anyway. Hoping one of the best centres in the game feeds him an easy goal. Thanks 100% effort from Matthews and 0% effort from Nylander.

Lazy, lazy lazy.

The Leafs are spending $22M on defense. They have almost that in just two wingers alone. Of all four positions wings are least of importance.

A good rule of thumb is don't spend more on top four wings than on top four defense.

Contender teams are built from the net out. With exceptional defense. And strength down the middle.

Defense wins cups.

Pretender teams are built from the wings in. With soft defense. And questionable goaltending.

Which team does the Leafs sound like?

I really hope Treliving re-balances the roster. To prioritize defense and goaltending. So that the team isn't top heavy anymore.

A good way to do that is by trading Nylander.

Matthews is holding up Nylander's signing.

Matty said he would sign for a discount, so Willy said if Matty did, he would too.

The ball is in Matthews' court.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Thanks for the response.

They missed the opportunity to trade Marner. Matthews is too important. Tavares isn't going anywhere.

That leaves Nylander the odd one out.

Nylander is the only one that doesn't have a full NMC anyway. I think it was pretty obvious he was always gonna be the fall guy. He should have been traded years ago.

So Pietrangelo or Hamilton could have been signed instead

Agreed - with the way the NTCs were handed out, Nylander will likely be the scapegoat for Dubas' incompetence.

Tavares never should have been signed, so Pietrangelo or Hamilton could have been signed instead.