Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[phillipmike]

At this point wouldn’t Murray stay on LTIR?

Option a. Stay home. Recover. Get 8 million dollars
Option b. Force a buyout. Lose 2.64 million dollars

No team is giving him money in august right? Say he got a 1 million dollar deal. He’s losing 1.64 million and will get hurt again.

To me I think he is LTIR bound. I would stay home to collect 8 million by April 2024 vs 5.36 by 2025 plus whatever league min he is making.

He would be taking a 1.5-2.6 million cut

I agree. It’s in his best interest. Spend your entire season getting healthy and improving. And if the leafs need a goalie in the playoffs you’re ready and potentially could do enough to get a $2-3M deal on 1 year.

If Kase can come if multiple concussions and last $1.5M, I can’t see why Murray wouldn’t get at least $2M with his accolades.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I will explain why.

Let's assume Matthews signs a 3-year extension as is being reported. Why do you think he wants this? There's a reason for it. It's not from the goodness of his heart.

The logic is, he can re-sign a year before that contract runs out. This means he will be 29 and negotiating again with the Leafs. Matthews will still be a #1 franchise center at 29 years old (unless something crazy happens) and is going to get whatever he wants. This includes a higher cap hit (even if he stays at the same cap %) + a longer-term deal.

You are worried about giving him 8 years now. How will you feel when they give it to him at 29 years old to keep the franchise center in-house? They will get rid of everyone else before they ever trade him.

The only way a shorter term works is if you are certain you will get rid of him at that age. Otherwise, you're going to get hosed. Matthews is not going to sign a third short-term deal because he will know that the next contract is his last big payday and he will milk it all the way to the bank.

The Leafs ideal term is a 6-7 year deal with Matthews at a reasonable cap hit. Anything in the 3-5 year range and he will destroy them again on the next contract.

On a 5 year term I don’t want a next contract, someone else can pay him 8 figures until he’s 38. 3 is too low, sure, 5 is fine for our competitive window. If we don’t win in 5 we’re not winning in 6 7 or 8, 13 years with this core is plenty if they keep coming up short.

 

[Kiwi]

On a 5 year term I don’t want a next contract, someone else can pay him 8 figures until he’s 38. 3 is too low, sure, 5 is fine for our competitive window. If we don’t win in 5 we’re not winning in 6 7 or 8, 13 years with this core is plenty if they keep coming up short.

Easy to say now, I tend to find teams get very flexible when franchise super stars are about to walk out the door and all that sweet sweet playoff revenue and merchandise sales go with them

Matthews loves his money, I doubt he's going to have any qualms about sticking it to the team on that next deal

 

[Gabriel426]

On a 5 year term I don’t want a next contract, someone else can pay him 8 figures until he’s 38. 3 is too low, sure, 5 is fine for our competitive window. If we don’t win in 5 we’re not winning in 6 7 or 8, 13 years with this core is plenty if they keep coming up short.

I understand this logic but it won’t happen. In 5 yrs, either Leafs overpaid to resign him or he choose to leave like Tkachuk and force a trade out of town.
There is no way Leafs will just let him walk for nothing in 5yrs even if they have McD on the team.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

On a 5 year term I don’t want a next contract, someone else can pay him 8 figures until he’s 38. 3 is too low, sure, 5 is fine for our competitive window. If we don’t win in 5 we’re not winning in 6 7 or 8, 13 years with this core is plenty if they keep coming up short.

I get your point but which team has ever let their #1 franchise C walk out the door without going all out to re-sign them?

The most likely plan would be to re-sign Matthews and aim for another 3-4 year run with a changed core. Probably a younger star or two to work alongside him as he gets older. This is why a long-term deal is better because if that's the plan in the future at least his cap hit will be lower.

I think your idea is better suited for a Nylander or Marner if they want to keep them around. I can see a team having a short leash with a winger because they can be replaced as they age.

 

[Legion34]

Shea Weber played up until the Habs lost the cup to Tampa. Never played again.

Same with smith for the oil and same with hossa.

His equipment allergy became too much in July

 

[andora]

Same with smith for the oil and same with hossa.

His equipment allergy became too much in July

The heat man.. the heat

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Any interest in Tony D?

 

[andora]

Any interest in Tony D?

A guy synonymous with your username no thank you

 

[TMLAM34]

Any interest in Tony D?

He’s a locker room cancer. No thanks especially with Klingberg back there now as well for offence.

The only UFA aside from Toews, Bergeron, etc that I would have any interest in is probably Comtois (if cleared by hockey Canada) and maybe Tatar.

 

[mydnyte]

Matthews has been dogged by wrist/shoulder issues 2 of the past 3 seasons.

There's just as good a chance he doesn't get more next contract when he's on the wrong side of 30.

There is a lot of risk mitigation here for the Leafs too.

Bergeron almost had to retire from concussions 10+ years ago too.

At a Salary Cap of $88 Mil, that's a 15.3% of the cap deal. His current deal is 14.64%.

That would give him the second highest cap hit percentage in the league, after McDavid.

Honestly, I don't think that's a great deal at all..

It also means Nylander would absolutely hold out for $10 mil.

as long as he comes in under McD's cap % i dont mind

 

[Martin Skoula]

I get your point but which team has ever let their #1 franchise C walk out the door without going all out to re-sign them?

The most likely plan would be to re-sign Matthews and aim for another 3-4 year run with a changed core. Probably a younger star or two to work alongside him as he gets older. This is why a long-term deal is better because if that's the plan in the future at least his cap hit will be lower.

I think your idea is better suited for a Nylander or Marner if they want to keep them around. I can see a team having a short leash with a winger because they can be replaced as they age.

Where did I say anything about letting him walk? Trade him while he still has top value as a ~30 year old at 50% retention towards the end of the deal. You’re suggesting keeping him for another 10 years as if we’re going to be legitimate cup contenders for another decade, I don’t want to be this seasons version of Pittsburgh but without the cups.

An aging vet team trading their 30 year old C is unrealistic but proposing that we’ll just magically find “a younger star or two” with no high picks is realistic, checks out.

Easy to say now, I tend to find teams get very flexible when franchise super stars are about to walk out the door and all that sweet sweet playoff revenue and merchandise sales go with them

Matthews loves his money, I doubt he's going to have any qualms about sticking it to the team on that next deal

This core is going to be old news in their 30s, nobody buys jerseys of a guy who was a top 5 center in the league 10 years ago and failed to win anything since then. Anyone lining up to buy Towes jerseys these days?

 

[Fogelhund]

He’s a locker room cancer. No thanks especially with Klingberg back there now as well for offence.

The only UFA aside from Toews, Bergeron, etc that I would have any interest in is probably Comtois (if cleared by hockey Canada) and maybe Tatar.

I'd take Foote too... same footnote as Comtois.

 

[mydnyte]

He’s a locker room cancer. No thanks especially with Klingberg back there now as well for offence.

The only UFA aside from Toews, Bergeron, etc that I would have any interest in is probably Comtois (if cleared by hockey Canada) and maybe Tatar.

Foote or Jones as depth D for me

 

[Stephen]

Same with smith for the oil and same with hossa.

His equipment allergy became too much in July

That’s right. Whenever Hossa put on a skate in the summer he would start sweating profusely. So better to just go on LTIR forever.

 

[TMLAM34]

I'd take Foote too... same footnote as Comtois.

Foote would be a good reclamation project.

If they’re cleared, signing Comtois to a league minimum 1 year deal and trading Lafferty to save around 400k and get a 5th round draft pick in return would be good asset management.

 

[VanW27]

That’s right. Whenever Hossa put on a skate in the summer he would start sweating profusely. So better to just go on LTIR forever.

The Hossa one at the time seemed completely bizarre and made up, but my understanding is it has since came out that his allergy was actually quite serious, to the point that the last year or two he played his skin was literally disintegrating under his gear whenever he played leaving behind painful open wounds after every game.

 

[TMLAM34]

Man it’s crazy we have no defenceman in our system that can even challenge a 40 year old declining Giordano on the left side.

 

[supermann_98]

Any interest in Tony D?

Zero from me, the guys a D-bag with a capital D

 

[Stephen]

The Hossa one at the time seemed completely bizarre and made up, but my understanding is it has since came out that his allergy was actually quite serious, to the point that the last year or two he played his skin was literally disintegrating under his gear whenever he played leaving behind painful open wounds after every game.

Oh that's terrible, I never really followed up with the story, just assumed it was nonsense.

 

[Mess]

Man it’s crazy we have no defenceman in our system that can even challenge a 40 year old declining Giordano on the left side.

That is why is was foolish trading Rasmus Sandin because he was blocked by a 40 year old.

 

[Buds17]

Any interest in Tony D?

No. I don't see much of a fit here (Klingberg) anyway.

 

[TMLAM34]

I wonder if Jake Bean is available. Columbus is stacked on the blueline and with Bean missing most of last year with shoulder surgery and the additions of Severson and Provorov, is he potentially available?

He would definitely be an upgrade on Gio in the lineup and insert some youth on and blueline. Bean can also play both sides. Potential Brodie replacement since we’re cap strapped?

 

[WTFMAN99]

I wonder if Jake Bean is available. Columbus is stacked on the blueline and with Bean missing most of last year with shoulder surgery and the additions of Severson and Provorov, is he potentially available?

He would definitely be an upgrade on Gio in the lineup and insert some youth on and blueline. Bean can also play both sides. Potential Brodie replacement since we’re cap strapped?

No point since we got Klingberg IMO, he's not that good defensively, could never do what Brodie does.

 

[TMLAM34]

No point since we got Klingberg IMO, he's not that good defensively, could never do what Brodie does.

He’s got the tools to be a solid two-way defenceman. Could potentially be someone you buy low on and get rewarded.

We would still need to be on the hunt for a defenceman to play alongside Rielly. Bean would more so replace Gio ideally.

Another name would be Kevin Bahl. Currently an RFA and New Jersey has a pretty crowded blueline as well.


Rielly - ________
McCabe - Klingberg
Bahl - Liljegren