Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[Fogelhund]

I thought Dell or Gillies were viable options of the list.

They would need to be fine with being in the AHL too so it might be tricky

The older vet UFA’s may not want to do that. The list is pretty short.

Halak, Dell, Elliot, Stalock, Hutchinson, and Khudobin are it.

Outside of that you have:

- Dylan Ferguson
- Dylan Wells
- Jon Gillies

Gillies might be the most realistic from an “experience” POV

It's getting to late July... I think a 38 year old guy like Elliot, would take a $800k deal, to sit and watch, and practise, given the options are few, and his career is winding down. If it were me, I wouldn't even play him for the Marlies very often... just a few games here and there, let our prospects get games, get him (or whatever vet) to work with the prospects, and get them just enough games and practise is necessary, to keep them from being rusty.

 

[Pholus]

Rielly and Tanev paired at the World Hockey championship previously. They were excellent together.

10 games, 7 years ago, against a lot of below NHL-level competition doesn't give me a ton of comfort.

I'm sure it would probably be fine. But there's still a bit of risk in "probably" and I don't see it as a huge impact move. The discussion is probably moot anyway. Calgary has so many players who seem to want out that they're probably trying to keep everyone else.

Once upon a time, Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie were a good-looking top pairing for Canada at the WC. I like the idea of Tanev, but maybe he and Rielly in the NHL works out (or rather, doesn't) the way that Muzzin+Barrie ended up in the NHL. Plus, you can't count on him to be healthy, and would also need to have a back-up plan for when he (inevitably) is unavailable (a back-up plan like Brodie).

 

[Martin Skoula]

I really don't understand the problem there. You also run into the risk of him putting up 50 or 60+ goal seasons over the next few years... and now what. 3 years at 19M or 20M per? Or whatever the max will be by then. Maybe he decides he wants to go play for a US team in 3 years and walks for free with his NMC. There are lot of ways it can go wrong with a 3 year deal.

Even in his low years, he's a premier top 5 center in the league, if not top 3. I really don't share the sentiment that his health is a concern at all. I'd rather overpay now over long-term with a chance he'll outplay his contract over paying top end dollar every 3 or so years.

It really just sucks in my opinion.

If it goes wrong on a 3 year deal and he walks (in the unlikely event he refuses to cooperate with a trade first), nothing happens to the rest of the team. We just have 13 mil open up for spending.

If it goes wrong on an 8 x 14 w/ full NMC and he declines into a 70 point guy due to injury, the competitive window is instantly over and you’ll probably have to pay absurd amounts to get rid of that deal.

I don’t know why you guys are so emotionally invested in this that you’re taking the 3 year idea as a personal sleight that he doesn’t like you enough to stick around forever, shorter deals are infinitely safer for the team.

 

[VanW27]

If it goes wrong on a 3 year deal and he walks (in the unlikely event he refuses to cooperate with a trade first), nothing happens to the rest of the team. We just have 13 mil open up for spending.

If it goes wrong on an 8 x 14 w/ full NMC and he declines into a 70 point guy due to injury, the competitive window is instantly over and you’ll probably have to pay absurd amounts to get rid of that deal.

I don’t know why you guys are so emotionally invested in this that you’re taking the 3 year idea as a personal sleight that he doesn’t like you enough to stick around forever, shorter deals are infinitely safer for the team.

I'm fine with a shorter deal 3 or 4 years, but if he wants short term to maximize his flexibility the team should be retaining flexibility and holding firm that if it's a 3 year deal there's no trade protection in year 3.

 

[TMLAM34]

I'm fine with a shorter deal 3 or 4 years, but if he wants short term to maximize his flexibility the team should be retaining flexibility and holding firm that if it's a 3 year deal there's no trade protection in year 3.

Or limited no trade clause. Unfortunately the way Dubas dealt with these contracts previously left all the power in the players hands. You can’t play hard ball with Matthews at this point. It’s basically what Matthews wants, whether it’s a contract extension for whatever amount of years, traded to whichever team he wants or he just walks into free agency.

 

[SprDaVE]

If it goes wrong on a 3 year deal and he walks (in the unlikely event he refuses to cooperate with a trade first), nothing happens to the rest of the team. We just have 13 mil open up for spending.

If it goes wrong on an 8 x 14 w/ full NMC and he declines into a 70 point guy due to injury, the competitive window is instantly over and you’ll probably have to pay absurd amounts to get rid of that deal.

I don’t know why you guys are so emotionally invested in this that you’re taking the 3 year idea as a personal sleight that he doesn’t like you enough to stick around forever, shorter deals are infinitely safer for the team.

Opening cap space is useless if there isn't anything remotely good to spend it on. You can't replace Matthews. This is why teams typically want to lock up their superstars to big money. Team aren't give out 3-5 year deals to their superstars entering their prime for a big reason.

The things that could go wrong you can say that about any single player in the league. Crosby had many concussions over the course of his career... you think Pittsburgh was scared to give him a 12 year contract? That's laughable. How long do you think Colorado spent asking themselves if signing MacKinnon for 8 years was going to an issue for them since he might have some lingering back or knee issues?

Shorter deals are definitely not safer and you're spending a lot more long-term. As if the downside of letting someone like Matthews walk isn't remotely something to be emotional about. There is upside in doing short-term for the majority of players. Matthews is not that player. You're locking up a player through his prime. Can he get injured and blow out his knee? Yeah. That can happen literally in game 1 of the 2023-2024 campaign.

 

[SprDaVE]

Last year, it was clear Matthews shooting wasn't right. He ended the season with 12.2% shooting, had to take time off because of the wrist, and according to Chris Johnston, the team is evaluating options, including surgery to address it. Healthy Matthews was 17.2 and 18.5% the prior two years. He only scored at 2/3rds his normal rate, due to the wrist.

He ended with 40 goals, for the 14th best goals scored in the league. He ended up 22nd in the league for points.

Clearly, this version of Matthews is not top 3, nor really top 5 for C's in the league. If we have a top 15 goal scorer, who is top 25 in points in the league, he should not be getting the top cap hit in the league, nor close. So to me, his wrist health is critical. Do we get 2022/23 Matthews, a top 15th forward, 9th C in goals scored, or do we get 2021/22 Elite Matthews? No team can afford to pay the 14th best NHL players in scoring goals, and 22nd best in points, a top three league cap hit.... and then turn around a attempt to pay one of their wingers, who had the same number of goals, and more points, $4 million less. That just doesn't make sense.

The version we got last year, is a $10 mil cap hit player max, not a $13-14 mil cap hit player.

I truly hope we get 2021/22 Matthews back, and he stays that way, but I don't think we can pretend that 22/23 Matthews isn't also a possibility. 21/22 Matthews is as you describe, a top 3 C and likely player in the league. 22/23 version is a top 10 C, and top 25 player in the league.... How you pay each of those versions long-term, go a long way in determining the success of your team.

He was still very much a top 5 center in this league even with a down year. One of the best 2-way centers in the league. I really can't disagree more.

 

[kb]

I really don't understand the problem there. You also run into the risk of him putting up 50 or 60+ goal seasons over the next few years... and now what. 3 years at 19M or 20M per? Or whatever the max will be by then. Maybe he decides he wants to go play for a US team in 3 years and walks for free with his NMC. There are lot of ways it can go wrong with a 3 year deal.

Even in his low years, he's a premier top 5 center in the league, if not top 3. I really don't share the sentiment that his health is a concern at all. I'd rather overpay now over long-term with a chance he'll outplay his contract over paying top end dollar every 3 or so years.

It really just sucks in my opinion.

I'm not worried about this for several reasons.

#1) He will be on the wrong side of 30 with most of his best years behind him. Teams aren't handing out mega contracts to over 30's anymore.
#2) If he wants that hypothetical $20M in UFA, where is he going to get it with his injury history.....even if healthy?
#3) What team has room to add that? Or - more accurately - which contender has that room? Which leads to......
#4) The Leafs won't bid against themselves. That makes no sense.

I understand the worry, but even a few moments of rational thought should lead you to the same conclusion. We need to drop the hysterics, take emotion out of the equation, and think rationally.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think 8 years is best for the team, but it does come with risks that could be more catastrophic than the risk associated with shorter term contracts, and if Matthews is open to giving an 8 year AAV for a shorter term, then it's far from the end of the world. I do get why one of the best players to pass through the league in the cap era would be hesitant to sign away all of his best years according to a cap that isn't even the true 50% cap, and is actually an artificially lowered cap that is about to skyrocket.

Theoretically, a 3 year deal would just take us to the 8 year deal many people originally wanted, only cheaper overall and better distributed. I hope we get 5 years though.

 

[SprDaVE]

I'm not worried about this for several reasons.

#1) He will be on the wrong side of 30 with most of his best years behind him. Teams aren't handing out mega contracts to over 30's anymore.
#2) If he wants that hypothetical $20M in UFA, where is he going to get it with his injury history.....even if healthy?
#3) What team has room to add that? Or - more accurately - which contender has that room? Which leads to......
#4) The Leafs won't bid against themselves. That makes no sense.

I understand the worry, but even a few moments of rational thought should lead you to the same conclusion.

He will 100% get it and teams will make it happen. Teams really don't care about the later years of that kind of player and contract. They'll really go for it. As if we're questioning whether teams will give out a blank check to one of the premier centers of the world if he ever decides to test free agency. Teams were lining out the door for Brad Richards and John Tavares.

I understand the risks of signing players long-term. I get it. What people seem to not understand is that this is all for him to get more money instead of being locked in to what he'll likely outplay. This has nothing to do with injuries or risks of completely regressing.

 

[MapleLeafs77]

kyper says matthews done deal at 13.5M

Where do you see this?

 

[Duffman955]

kyper says matthews done deal at 13.5M

That's a great number

 

[Fogelhund]

kyper says matthews done deal at 13.5M

He also said this not long ago.

 

[Fogelhund]

kyper says matthews done deal at 13.5M

At a Salary Cap of $88 Mil, that's a 15.3% of the cap deal. His current deal is 14.64%.

That would give him the second highest cap hit percentage in the league, after McDavid.

Honestly, I don't think that's a great deal at all..

It also means Nylander would absolutely hold out for $10 mil.

 

[TMLAM34]

At 13.5, I hope it’s on an 8 year term. Anything shorter in term shouldn’t be more than 12.5 IMO.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Jets and the Flames are wasting big rebuild opportunities by not selling more this offseason.

 

[Fogelhund]

Jets and the Flames are wasting big rebuild opportunities by not selling more this offseason.

To who?

Nobody has cap room. 11 teams over the cap, 8 more within $5 mil. The rest of the teams are rebuilding and in no position to acquire anybody.

The cap freeze has really made a mess and mockery of this league.

 

[ACC1224]

To who?

View attachment 729948

Nobody has cap room. 11 teams over the cap, 8 more within $5 mil. The rest of the teams are rebuilding and in no position to acquire anybody.

The cap freeze has really made a mess and mockery of this league.

Amen to that. They really should have come up with some concessions that would have been fair to all.

 

[kb]

At a Salary Cap of $88 Mil, that's a 15.3% of the cap deal. His current deal is 14.64%.

That would give him the second highest cap hit percentage in the league, after McDavid.

Honestly, I don't think that's a great deal at all..

It also means Nylander would absolutely hold out for $10 mil.

Within a rounding error of MacKinnon.

It's fair.

 

[TMLAM34]

Clearly that report was false or else it would have gotten A LOT more smoke if true.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Must be close though. Everyone wants to be the first to break it.

 

[613Leafer]

Within a rounding error of MacKinnon.

It's fair.

MacKinnon is on an 8 year deal.

 

[Stephen]

Jets and the Flames are wasting big rebuild opportunities by not selling more this offseason.

With the league as grid locked as it is, I assume they'll just have to do their big sell off in season.

 

[weems]

The reactions to this signing will be fascinating to read.

I predict a ton of disagreement.

 

[baton elevated]

To who?

View attachment 729948

Nobody has cap room. 11 teams over the cap, 8 more within $5 mil. The rest of the teams are rebuilding and in no position to acquire anybody.

The cap freeze has really made a mess and mockery of this league.

There is a simple solution. Allow teams to exempt 1 player from the cap from each team. The caveat would be it has to be a drafted home grown player not a free agent signing. Therefore JT would not qualify but AM ,MM, Rielly, Willy would.
Teams pressed to get to the floor can just do nothing. This is such a broke league.