Trades and Free Agency Discussion - The Dog Days of Summer

[DarkKnight]

I don't know how you getaway with LTIRetiring Murray

You need to convince both Murray to get on board and the league to believe its legit.

For Murray this is a career death sentence while still being in his 20's . He probably still has the professional athletes mentality that he can defy odds and still play in the league a while and this is a contract year for that.

For the league there is pressure if Toronto tries to flex their financial muscles by spending over the cap. Murray is not ever dealing with the same injury and there isn't a injury called being fragile. So what injury will the leafs bring to the LTIR table when justifying it?

Buyout is the easiest course.


sidenote i am a sens fan so I have been watching this situation for a bit because we need the space lol so i definitely have a horse in the race here.

The part you aren’t computing, he’s still hurt and untradeable. Why does he need to “get on board” when the doctors aren’t clearing him?

 

[LaPlante94]

I don't know how you getaway with LTIRetiring Murray

You need to convince both Murray to get on board and the league to believe its legit.

For Murray this is a career death sentence while still being in his 20's . He probably still has the professional athletes mentality that he can defy odds and still play in the league a while and this is a contract year for that.

For the league there is pressure if Toronto tries to flex their financial muscles by spending over the cap. Murray is not ever dealing with the same injury and there isn't a injury called being fragile. So what injury will the leafs bring to the LTIR table when justifying it?

Buyout is the easiest course.


sidenote i am a sens fan so I have been watching this situation for a bit because we need the space lol so i definitely have a horse in the race here.

Since 2018/19 the most games he's played is 38. His last 3 seasons he hasn't been able to make it to the 30 game mark because he's always getting injured. He's had a few concussions/head injuries in those years and it just might not be smart for him to play again or really take some time off to recover fully. Before he got here he also had a lot of lower body injuries which isn't good for a goalie. As for what injury could they bring to the LTIR table is simply a concussion. He's a good goalie when healthy so I'm sure if he actually takes time off to recover from everything then he can comeback and I'm sure many teams would be willing to give him a shot.

 

[LaPlante94]

Normally, a longer term would mean a lower cap hit, but with the cap rising, Matthews likely wants more money for more term.

He’s 26 years old at the start of this season. A three year extension would lock him up for the entirety of his 20s, and not a second of his 30s.

Any years after 30 are likely to see declining production, so they should lower the average cap hit. If that doesn’t happen, a shorter deal is much better for Toronto.

He signs a 3 year deal and suffers an injury that really impacts his scoring/game and possibly his career. Now he's lost out on millions because he didn't want guaranteed money for 8 years but to try and maximize profits every 3 years. Who takes the blame? Matthews or the agent?

 

[LeafalCrusader]

convenient there’s no trade market and he’s suddenly an LTIR potential

Murray’s at the dock waiting to go to Robidas Island

There's no escape

 

[Sun God Nika]

The part you aren’t computing, he’s still hurt and untradeable. Why does he need to “get on board” when the doctors aren’t clearing him?

His last injury was day to day concussion the last time he had that exact injury was almost 2 years ago. He has bad luck getting injured but its not one thing giving him a problem should be able to pass his physicals.

I am just struggling to understand the medical reason he would be put on LTIR.

 

[I am Canadian]

At the end of Galchenyuks time in Toronto, the reports were he took the offer from Arizona instead of Toronto due to having a property already in Arizona right?

I found that decision crazy, he could have revived his career easily in Toronto

 

[Fogelhund]

Most often I believe in locking up your stats to the longest term possible, it just makes sense from an asset management perspective.

With Matthews and his wonky wrist, I’m ok with something like a three year deal, though I’m not sure why his team is ok with that. I mean it’s a solid bet on yourself, if the wrist health is good and he’s a 60 goal scorer who finally is also healthy and that guy in the playoffs. But if his wrist continues to be problematic and he’s a 40 goal 11% shooter, there is no way he makes big bank on the following contract. It reduces the Leafs risk of being stuck with an albatross contract and Matthews wrist issues. We aren’t winning unless he’s healthy, no matter who the other bodies are.

I’m also good with the Nylander situation. He shouldn’t sign a “discount” unless Matthews does too. To me it looks like Matthews will and the Leafs are confident Nylander will see it that way too.

As far as our guest @Sun God Nika question, Murray last hit his head on April 2nd against the Red Wings. He had to leave the game after hitting his head on the ice and didn’t play again last year. If he can’t be traded or bought out due to these injury concerns, clearly there is reason to LTIR him.

Matt Murray’s latest injury scare may test Maple Leafs’ goalie depth – Sportsnet.ca

 

[francis246]

At the end of Galchenyuks time in Toronto, the reports were he took the offer from Arizona instead of Toronto due to having a property already in Arizona right?

I found that decision crazy, he could have revived his career easily in Toronto

I don’t think it was just the property. We gotta take O’Reilly’s comments at face value. Playing in Toronto isn’t for everyone. The pressure and scrutiny isn’t something everyone wants to deal with. Galchenyuk’s career may have been revitalized but he’d still have issues with substance abuse, so those issues would be magnified here.

 

[-DeMo-]

Ok, I'll play. Show your math.

ok simple will Matthews be worth 13 million in years 6-8? Currently he's 25 will be 26 before the start of the season so he would be 27 before the new contract kicks in. that means the contract runs ages 27-35, will Matthews be a 13 million dollar player @ 31? 33? 35? I highly doubt it. just look at the Tavares example. people are trying to run him out of town @ 11 million and he's still a PPG player. to me 5 years is the perfect fit but 3 wouldn't be terrible either. 8 year deals on UFA contracts almost never benefit the team and the contract at some point becomes an anchor. if you could sign him for 5 years or 3 and then re-sign him for cheaper knowing he's going to decline that is beneficial. also it keeps him motivated. because he wont have a retirement contract.

 

[TMLAM34]

Not sure why people are complaining against a 3 year deal for Matthews. If it helps keep the cap hit lower, sign me up. That’s another 4 years minimum with Matthews in Toronto.

 

[SprDaVE]

If the Leafs don't buyout Murray in this 2nd phase, I think it's very likely he's going on LTIR. Not sure if they'll try to trade both Muzzin and him at that point... might as well penny pinch the entire season like we just did the past season. Maybe at the deadline a team selling will be more likely to take on salary at that point.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not sure why people are complaining against a 3 year deal for Matthews. If it helps keep the cap hit lower, sign me up. That’s another 4 years minimum with Matthews in Toronto.

The problem is that it's not really much lower and you don't have him locked up here long-term. 3 years at what... 12-13M is the rumour? As opposed to 6-8 years at 15M? In 3 years, we're going to bump up his salary to even higher heights and I don't even want to think about the height he's going to ask for. So in 3 years, when he's 1 year away from UFA... we can do this whole dance all over again and hope he doesn't threaten to walk. Yay?

I don't know why anyone likes Matthews' camp pushing for a 3 year deal. It sucks and it doesn't help the Leafs at all. It only helps Matthews to make more money. Why is it so hard to sign him with a long-term contract paid based on what he's accomplished so far like any other superstar in this league?

 

[phillipmike]

LTIRetiring Murray would be a solid way of getting out of that albatross.

Love everything said here - hoping it all comes to fruition;
-Short term deal for Samsonov is the way to go. Ideally 2 years at something starting at $3.5M or lower
-Murray off the cap without losing assets and potentially still with the org as your 3rd goalie in the playoffs. I dont mind the player, hated the trade to get him and his contract
-Matthews is re-signing
-Holding firm with Nylander. He should take $9M AAV or lower, or he should be traded. Frankly he should be traded regardless if there is a good deal out there

 

[ToDavid]

I don't know how you getaway with LTIRetiring Murray

You need to convince both Murray to get on board and the league to believe its legit.

For Murray this is a career death sentence while still being in his 20's . He probably still has the professional athletes mentality that he can defy odds and still play in the league a while and this is a contract year for that.

For the league there is pressure if Toronto tries to flex their financial muscles by spending over the cap. Murray is not ever dealing with the same injury and there isn't a injury called being fragile. So what injury will the leafs bring to the LTIR table when justifying it?

Buyout is the easiest course.


sidenote i am a sens fan so I have been watching this situation for a bit because we need the space lol so i definitely have a horse in the race here.

It is interesting. From his point of view taking the buyout makes sense. Someone will give him league min or something to see if he can have a healthy season. Which could be a building block to getting his career back on track.

It’s possible that he’s truly just done. He was apparently fine to practice during the playoffs but you never know with concussions. He may have gotten worse over the summer. He’ll have made close to $40m at the end of this contract. He’s had so many injuries, maybe he’s just at the point where he wants to quit before he’s destroyed his post-career quality of life.

On the flip side, players always rave about the Leafs’ medical team. Maybe he’s thinking, even if he could technically pass a physical and try to play this season why not just rehab and truly get back to 100% with some of the best resources in the league, instead of forcing a trade or buyout and ending up god knows where. There’s probably still a GM who will take a chance on him at league min a year from now (*cough* Dubas *cough*).

 

[TMLAM34]

The problem is that it's not really much lower and you don't have him locked up here long-term. 3 years at what... 12-13M is the rumour? As opposed to 6-8 years at 15M? In 3 years, we're going to bump up his salary to even higher heights and I don't even want to think about the height he's going to ask for. So in 3 years, when he's 1 year away from UFA... we can do this whole dance all over again and hope he doesn't threaten to walk. Yay?

I don't know why anyone likes Matthews' camp pushing for a 3 year deal. It sucks and it doesn't help the Leafs at all. It only helps Matthews to make more money. Why is it so hard to sign him with a long-term contract paid based on what he's accomplished so far like any other superstar in this league?

I’m definitely not against signing Matthews to a long term deal, ideally that’s what happens but not at the 14/15 million price tag rumoured. 8 years at 13.4 is more than reasonable and fair. Anything less than 8 years, 12.5 per.

Why are we the only ones who can’t lock up their star players to 8 year deals? Why are we the only ones who have to overpay to keep their star players? It’s getting pretty frustrating and honestly making me less and less interested in this team.

 

[LeafChief]

Matt Murray.

YOU are the newest member of Robidas Island. COME ON DOWN!

 

[Fogelhund]

The problem is that it's not really much lower and you don't have him locked up here long-term. 3 years at what... 12-13M is the rumour? As opposed to 6-8 years at 15M? In 3 years, we're going to bump up his salary to even higher heights and I don't even want to think about the height he's going to ask for. So in 3 years, when he's 1 year away from UFA... we can do this whole dance all over again and hope he doesn't threaten to walk. Yay?

I don't know why anyone likes Matthews' camp pushing for a 3 year deal. It sucks and it doesn't help the Leafs at all. It only helps Matthews to make more money. Why is it so hard to sign him with a long-term contract paid based on what he's accomplished so far like any other superstar in this league?

As I’ve mentioned above, the only advantage of a shorter term deal from the teams perspective is concerns over Matthews injury history. Not many people talk about this, but to me it’s a legitimate concern.

I have no issue paying up for a 17% 60 goal scorer, but an 11% 40 goal scorer not so much. Will the real Matthews stand up?

Do others share the concern about his wrists?

 

[ULF_55]

His last injury was day to day concussion the last time he had that exact injury was almost 2 years ago. He has bad luck getting injured but its not one thing giving him a problem should be able to pass his physicals.

I am just struggling to understand the medical reason he would be put on LTIR.

Because he's got the Pronger injury.

If it's good enough for the rest of the league, Leafs will settle by being treated like the rest of the league.

 

[Magic Man]

I wonder if the Leafs hold off on a #3 goalie. They could just pull Murray off of LTIR in the playoffs or if there is a regular season injury and some cap room. When he's healthy, which is rare, he's better than an Elliott. No different than what happened with Stone or Kucherov, except much less important.

 

[ULF_55]

As I’ve mentioned above, the only advantage of a shorter term deal from the teams perspective is concerns over Matthews injury history. Not many people talk about this, but to me it’s a legitimate concern.

I have no issue paying up for a 17% 60 goal scorer, but an 11% 40 goal scorer not so much. Will the real Matthews stand up?

Do others share the concern about his wrists?

I'd even look at a 2 year deal ... expiring when you know who is UFA.

marner and Draisaitl both UFA at the same time?

 

[Fogelhund]

I wonder if the Leafs hold off on a #3 goalie. They could just pull Murray off of LTIR in the playoffs or if there is a regular season injury and some cap room. When he's healthy, which is rare, he's better than an Elliott. No different than what happened with Stone or Kucherov, except much less important.

I think you still need a #3 who has some NHL experience for the inevitable regular season injuries.

 

[SprDaVE]

As I’ve mentioned above, the only advantage of a shorter term deal from the teams perspective is concerns over Matthews injury history. Not many people talk about this, but to me it’s a legitimate concern.

I have no issue paying up for a 17% 60 goal scorer, but an 11% 40 goal scorer not so much. Will the real Matthews stand up?

Do others share the concern about his wrists?

I really don't understand the problem there. You also run into the risk of him putting up 50 or 60+ goal seasons over the next few years... and now what. 3 years at 19M or 20M per? Or whatever the max will be by then. Maybe he decides he wants to go play for a US team in 3 years and walks for free with his NMC. There are lot of ways it can go wrong with a 3 year deal.

Even in his low years, he's a premier top 5 center in the league, if not top 3. I really don't share the sentiment that his health is a concern at all. I'd rather overpay now over long-term with a chance he'll outplay his contract over paying top end dollar every 3 or so years.

It really just sucks in my opinion.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think you still need a #3 who has some NHL experience for the inevitable regular season injuries.

They would need to be fine with being in the AHL too so it might be tricky

The older vet UFA’s may not want to do that. The list is pretty short.

Halak, Dell, Elliot, Stalock, Hutchinson, and Khudobin are it.

Outside of that you have:

- Dylan Ferguson
- Dylan Wells
- Jon Gillies

Gillies might be the most realistic from an “experience” POV

 

[WTFMAN99]

They would need to be fine with being in the AHL too so it might be tricky

The older vet UFA’s may not want to do that. The list is pretty short.

Halak, Dell, Elliot, Stalock, Hutchinson, and Khudobin are it.

Outside of that you have:

- Dylan Ferguson
- Dylan Wells
- Jon Gillies

Gillies might be the most realistic from an “experience” POV

I thought Dell or Gillies were viable options of the list.

 

[Fogelhund]

I really don't understand the problem there. You also run into the risk of him putting up 50 or 60+ goal seasons over the next few years... and now what. 3 years at 19M or 20M per? Or whatever the max will be by then. Maybe he decides he wants to go play for a US team in 3 years and walks for free with his NMC. There are lot of ways it can go wrong with a 3 year deal.

Even in his low years, he's a premier top 5 center in the league, if not top 3. I really don't share the sentiment that his health is a concern at all. I'd rather overpay now over long-term with a chance he'll outplay his contract over paying top end dollar every 3 or so years.

It really just sucks in my opinion.

Last year, it was clear Matthews shooting wasn't right. He ended the season with 12.2% shooting, had to take time off because of the wrist, and according to Chris Johnston, the team is evaluating options, including surgery to address it. Healthy Matthews was 17.2 and 18.5% the prior two years. He only scored at 2/3rds his normal rate, due to the wrist.

He ended with 40 goals, for the 14th best goals scored in the league. He ended up 22nd in the league for points.

Clearly, this version of Matthews is not top 3, nor really top 5 for C's in the league. If we have a top 15 goal scorer, who is top 25 in points in the league, he should not be getting the top cap hit in the league, nor close. So to me, his wrist health is critical. Do we get 2022/23 Matthews, a top 15th forward, 9th C in goals scored, or do we get 2021/22 Elite Matthews? No team can afford to pay the 14th best NHL players in scoring goals, and 22nd best in points, a top three league cap hit.... and then turn around a attempt to pay one of their wingers, who had the same number of goals, and more points, $4 million less. That just doesn't make sense.

The version we got last year, is a $10 mil cap hit player max, not a $13-14 mil cap hit player.

I truly hope we get 2021/22 Matthews back, and he stays that way, but I don't think we can pretend that 22/23 Matthews isn't also a possibility. 21/22 Matthews is as you describe, a top 3 C and likely player in the league. 22/23 version is a top 10 C, and top 25 player in the league.... How you pay each of those versions long-term, go a long way in determining the success of your team.