Trades and Free Agency - 2022 Off-season

[LeafChief]

Given the general cap tightness around the league and the "weaponization" (I prefer commoditization) of cap space I think we should be looking outside the box rather than either
A: hoping to send a player away for a pick
B:spending assets to dump players/ get retention
Specifically: a 1 for 1 "hockey trade" that under the surface is a mutually beneficial financial swap where we get cap space and the other team saves cash.
More specifically- Kerfoot for a pending UFA or 2 year player with a cap hit lower than 3.5 but cash owed significantly higher than 750k.

Ex. Kerfoot for Girgensons. We save 1.3 cap, they save 1.65 cash. Girgensons-Kampf-Kubel is a nasty defensive line that would be an absolute pain to play against

I like this thought process.

 

[4thline]

I like this thought process.

The problem with it is that it's not exactly a huge pool. The intersection of pending UFA forwards
A. On teams with 7+m in cap space (buffer so they're not shooting their wad on this move
B. Cap hit 2.2 or less (make it worth while for us)
C. Money owed 1.5 or more (make it worthwhile for them)
D. Not signed as UFA this off-season

Creates a list of:
Girgensons (Buf)
Watson (Ott)
Erne (Det)
Glendenning (DAL)
Grant (ANA)

 

[justashadowof]

My money is on the Penguins to acquire Patrick Kane if they are playoff bound this spring. It might be their last kick at the can.

 

[Fogelhund]

The problem with it is that it's not exactly a huge pool. The intersection of pending UFA forwards
A. On teams with 7+m in cap space (buffer so they're not shooting their wad on this move
B. Cap hit 2.2 or less (make it worth while for us)
C. Money owed 1.5 or more (make it worthwhile for them)
D. Not signed as UFA this off-season

Creates a list of:
Girgensons (Buf)
Watson (Ott)
Erne (Det)
Glendenning (DAL)
Grant (ANA)

With such a limited pool, the question is also, do these teams want to move on from these players? Girgensons has been a Sabre for a decade... do they want to move him? What's the motivation? Do these teams need to pay less salary?

 

[Torontonian]

That would be his double retention cap hit. Probably 1st, Knies, Sandin, Robertson for Kane at 50% and another 1st or 2nd + prospect for the second retention.

A signed younger centerman in Jack Eichel didn't even cost that much, when do pending UFAS go for that much? It would cost Toronto a 1st/top prospect/cap dump and maybe a lower draft pick. Ive also never seen another team pay a 1st or a 2nd for a second retention, its a middle draft pick at most.

 

[Fogelhund]

A signed younger centerman in Jack Eichel didn't even cost that much, when do pending UFAS go for that much? It would cost Toronto a 1st/top prospect/cap dump and maybe a lower draft pick. Ive also never seen another team pay a 1st or a 2nd for a second retention, its a middle draft pick at most.

A damaged, malcontent, who nobody knew, nor do they still know if he'll ever play at the level he once was. Eichel is a bad example.

What are the comparisons, of taking on $5 mil + in cap, for a full season, that we are comparing to? Marleau was a 1st..

Flyers paid a second and seventh to move Ghost's $4.5 mil, and he was actually a useful player, who then put up 51 points for Arizona.

The Philadelphia Flyers finally cleared some salary on Thursday afternoon. They traded Shayne Gostisbehere and his $4.5 million cap hit (along with second- and seventh-round picks) to the Arizona Coyotes for that cap relief.

That may seem like a steep price to pay, but it was actually one of the more reasonable offers that the Flyers received. Chuck Fletcher spoke about the Gostisbehere trade on Thursday afternoon.

But other teams were squeezing the Flyers for Gostisbehere, Chuck Fletcher said.

Fletcher revealed that one team asked for top prospect Cameron York to take on Gostisbehere and his contract. Another team asked for the Flyers’ first-round pick (13th overall) in Friday’s NHL Draft.

It cost NYR a 2nd and conditional 3rd, to move Nemeth and his $2.5 mil contract.

These aren't middle draft picks at best.

 

[Torontonian]

A damaged, malcontent, who nobody knew, nor do they still know if he'll ever play at the level he once was. Eichel is a bad example.

What are the comparisons, of taking on $5 mil + in cap, for a full season, that we are comparing to? Marleau was a 1st..

Flyers paid a second and seventh to move Ghost's $4.5 mil, and he was actually a useful player, who then put up 51 points for Arizona.

The Philadelphia Flyers finally cleared some salary on Thursday afternoon. They traded Shayne Gostisbehere and his $4.5 million cap hit (along with second- and seventh-round picks) to the Arizona Coyotes for that cap relief.

That may seem like a steep price to pay, but it was actually one of the more reasonable offers that the Flyers received. Chuck Fletcher spoke about the Gostisbehere trade on Thursday afternoon.

But other teams were squeezing the Flyers for Gostisbehere, Chuck Fletcher said.

Fletcher revealed that one team asked for top prospect Cameron York to take on Gostisbehere and his contract. Another team asked for the Flyers’ first-round pick (13th overall) in Friday’s NHL Draft.

It cost NYR a 2nd and conditional 3rd, to move Nemeth and his $2.5 mil contract.

These aren't middle draft picks at best.

You are providing players that had term on their contracts in Ghost and aren't expiring ufas, and a player that had a 6.25m cap hit with a 35+ contract and a full no move clause. The reason it cost a first was because Marleau had the gun to Toronto head and the 35+ contract.

The difference is Ghost was legit hot garbage on Philly and Kerfoot is a 50 point player in the NHL on a 3.25m cap hit and 900k in salary, he's not a throw away player, you can flip him for 50% at the deadline for a pick. Just because they don't have room on Toronto and fans have turned on him, doesn't make them a cap dump, hes a everyday nhl player.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

I genuinly enjoy the Knies hype train but some people are going over board now not even taking Patrick f***ing Kane for him.

 

[Fogelhund]

You are providing players that had term on their contracts in Ghost and aren't expiring ufas, and a player that had a 6.25m cap hit with a 35+ contract and a full no move clause. The reason it cost a first was because Marleau had the gun to Toronto head and the 35+ contract.

The difference is Ghost was legit hot garbage on Philly and Kerfoot is a 50 point player in the NHL on a 3.25m cap hit and 900k in salary, he's not a throw away player, you can flip him for 50% at the deadline for a pick. Just because they don't have room on Toronto and fans have turned on him, doesn't make them a cap dump, hes a everyday nhl player.

I think you are confusing the discussion here. Kerfoot isn't part of this discussion. This is a discussion about how much it will cost to withhold $5.25 million of cap, on a theoretical Kane trade.

 

[Martin Skoula]

A damaged, malcontent, who nobody knew, nor do they still know if he'll ever play at the level he once was. Eichel is a bad example.

What are the comparisons, of taking on $5 mil + in cap, for a full season, that we are comparing to? Marleau was a 1st..

Flyers paid a second and seventh to move Ghost's $4.5 mil, and he was actually a useful player, who then put up 51 points for Arizona.

The Philadelphia Flyers finally cleared some salary on Thursday afternoon. They traded Shayne Gostisbehere and his $4.5 million cap hit (along with second- and seventh-round picks) to the Arizona Coyotes for that cap relief.

That may seem like a steep price to pay, but it was actually one of the more reasonable offers that the Flyers received. Chuck Fletcher spoke about the Gostisbehere trade on Thursday afternoon.

But other teams were squeezing the Flyers for Gostisbehere, Chuck Fletcher said.

Fletcher revealed that one team asked for top prospect Cameron York to take on Gostisbehere and his contract. Another team asked for the Flyers’ first-round pick (13th overall) in Friday’s NHL Draft.

It cost NYR a 2nd and conditional 3rd, to move Nemeth and his $2.5 mil contract.

These aren't middle draft picks at best.

Kane is due ~5 mil in cash given his bonus is already paid, half of which will be paid out by the deadline, and half of the remainder being retained by Chicago. You see how retaining a million in cash is different from paying a guy 5 mil not to play and give your team a 6.5 mil cap handicap for a year are different right?

 

[Shooter2x]

I genuinly enjoy the Knies hype train but some people are going over board now not even taking Patrick f***ing Kane for him.

Tavares felt like Christmas. Patrick Kane would feel 100x more exciting than that even at his age. Him and Marchand are good to go as 27 year olds.

I would wipe out the farm for one season of matthews-kane. If we can't win a cup with that duo + marner nylander tavares, sorry but none of these prospects will even make a dent in any future attempt. At least if we're not meant to win a cup yet. we can still brag to our kids and grand kids one day that we got to witness Matthews clap a one timer top shelf off a Patty Kane spinorama pass.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I genuinly enjoy the Knies hype train but some people are going over board now not even taking Patrick f***ing Kane for him.

For me, it's a fair price.

What it comes down to is a person's motivation...I would only entertain trading Knies for a rental IF Kane looked amazing this season AND the team takes a true step forward in some way. I do not want to mortgage a future if the team is like last year - inconsistent team play, shaky goaltending, etc. I am only make that commitment if they make us believe.

If they don't sell us on being a winner right now, I would much rather try to extend our window.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

For me, it's a fair price.

What it comes down to is a person's motivation...I would only entertain trading Knies for a rental IF Kane looked amazing this season AND the team takes a true step forward in some way. I do not want to mortgage a future if the team is like last year - inconsistent team play, shaky goaltending, etc. I am only make that commitment if they make us believe.

If they don't sell us on being a winner right now, I would much rather try to extend our window.

Might be the other way around unfortunately. Why would Hawks give up their main piece to start rebuild unless Knies shows more growth during first half of season to show his hype is true. His tourny was pretty average which hurt us a bit if Hawks are scouting him for a big trade. Knies looks promising but he's still flawed enough that Hawks end up passing.

Patrick Kane isn't in "if" territory for me. He's established superstar and that tag isn't in question at the moment. He's not a player you need to sit and wonder and second guess about. You take him and run if Hawks say okay.

Sorry I forget your "AND". Leafs don't need to prove that right now, I disagree. They are ready to win now and have been for a while, just not putting correct finishing touch on team. Kane is exceeding whatever finishing touch remains due to his impact on ice.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Might be the other way around unfortunately. Why would Hawks give up their main piece to start rebuild unless Knies shows more growth during first half of season to show his hype is true. His tourny was pretty average which hurt us a bit if Hawks are scouting him for a big trade. Knies looks promising but he's still flawed enough that Hawks end up passing.

Patrick Kane isn't in "if" territory for me. He's established superstar and that tag isn't in question at the moment. He's not a player you need to sit and wonder and second guess about. You take him and run if Hawks say okay.

Sorry I forget your "AND". Leafs don't need to prove that right now, I disagree. They are ready to win now and have been for a while, just not putting correct finishing touch on team. Kane is exceeding whatever finishing touch remains due to his impact on ice.

Well it won't be just Knies. Even with retention we will need to shed some cap, and I imagine we are talking multiple high picks as well.

Each has their own risk tolerance. I prefer longevity of the core, but I know others prefer to strike while the iron is hot.

 

[Gabriel426]

Is Patty Kane the Kawhi for the Leafs? This situation is actually quite similar. As the Raptors core(KLo) at that time has two years remaining in their contract and the Kawhi deal was a win or bust. If Raptors didn’t win, then it allowed Masai to start the rebuild/retool a year earlier.
Do Dubas got the balls to pull this off, win or bust. Trade for Patty Kane to go all in and if it doesn’t work out, start the retool this coming summer.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Is Patty Kane the Kawhi for the Leafs? This situation is actually quite similar. As the Raptors core(KLo) at that time has two years remaining in their contract and the Kawhi deal was a win or bust. If Raptors didn’t win, then it allowed Masai to start the rebuild/retool a year earlier.
Do Dubas got the balls to pull this off, win or bust. Trade for Patty Kane to go all in and if it doesn’t work out, start the retool this coming summer.

I don't think he is.

Kawhi came in and provided HoF level defence and clutch scoring. He was a missing piece in creating space and shutting down hyper talented wings.

The closest thing I can think of to that would be if we went out and acquired a Top 10 defenceman. It would change the dynamic of the team and it will solve our biggest weakness. Imagine Charlie McAvoy became available as a 1 year rental, and we traded Nylander+++ for him. That's closer to the Kawhi deal.

 

[Shooter2x]

My advanced stats show a correlation with the "K" sound on last name and championships in Toronto.

Joe Carter.
Kawhi

It's only fitting Kane is the missing piece in the one league we don't have a championship in post 90's.

Get it done boysssssssssss

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

My advanced stats show a correlation with the "K" sound on last name and championships in Toronto.

Joe Carter.
Kawhi

It's only fitting Kane is the missing piece in the one league we don't have a championship in post 90's.

Get it done boysssssssssss

2012 grey cup MvP for the Argos was Kackert.

You krack the kode.

 

[Fogelhund]

Well it won't be just Knies. Even with retention we will need to shed some cap, and I imagine we are talking multiple high picks as well.

Each has their own risk tolerance. I prefer longevity of the core, but I know others prefer to strike while the iron is hot.

I look at it more like you.... I'd prefer longevity too, and this is a bit of a one shot deal, and if it doesn't work, we've hurt our future.

That being said, and one can dream, I wish that these players could sit down, and say... we've all made a pile of money already, and we'll still make a pile more, but let's win, over let's maximize our pay days. If we move Muzzin, we could afford Kane at his(Muzzin's) price. Nylander deserves a raise, but Matthews and Marner, if they signed at $8.5 to $9 mil, would give us incredible cap flexibility, and honestly, that's not going to affect their future lives any taking less. Tavares, if he's still effective more in the $5 mil range, and you could build a super team, of guys motivated to win..... I appreciate that reality isn't like that, and it would never happen.

My advanced stats show a correlation with the "K" sound on last name and championships in Toronto.

Joe Carter.
Kawhi

It's only fitting Kane is the missing piece in the one league we don't have a championship in post 90's.

Get it done boysssssssssss

Shouldn't have traded Kapanen then. ;-)

 

[Shooter2x]

Shouldn't have traded Kapanen then. ;-)

haha well the prerequisite for this finding is they're a superstar / leader type for the team.

sorry kap

 

[Havoc]

2012 grey cup MvP for the Argos was Kackert.

You krack the kode.

That's really freaky now. You guys might actually be onto something here.

 

[weems]

We should make Kallgren our #1 and really test out that theory.

 

[Gabriel426]

I don't think he is.

Kawhi came in and provided HoF level defence and clutch scoring. He was a missing piece in creating space and shutting down hyper talented wings.

The closest thing I can think of to that would be if we went out and acquired a Top 10 defenceman. It would change the dynamic of the team and it will solve our biggest weakness. Imagine Charlie McAvoy became available as a 1 year rental, and we traded Nylander+++ for him. That's closer to the Kawhi deal.

I don’t think defence was the problem of the Leafs last playoffs, their defence was solid. It is clutch scoring thats been missing. As much as I don’t want to admit, our boys really had not given us those big shots moment in elimination games and I think Patty Kane can do that.

My advanced stats show a correlation with the "K" sound on last name and championships in Toronto.

Joe Carter.
Kawhi

It's only fitting Kane is the missing piece in the one league we don't have a championship in post 90's.

Get it done boysssssssssss

And Kessel was just signed for 1.5mil. Dubas really missed it this time, lol.

 

[Gabriel426]

I look at it more like you.... I'd prefer longevity too, and this is a bit of a one shot deal, and if it doesn't work, we've hurt our future.

That being said, and one can dream, I wish that these players could sit down, and say... we've all made a pile of money already, and we'll still make a pile more, but let's win, over let's maximize our pay days. If we move Muzzin, we could afford Kane at his(Muzzin's) price. Nylander deserves a raise, but Matthews and Marner, if they signed at $8.5 to $9 mil, would give us incredible cap flexibility, and honestly, that's not going to affect their future lives any taking less. Tavares, if he's still effective more in the $5 mil range, and you could build a super team, of guys motivated to win..... I appreciate that reality isn't like that, and it would never happen.



Shouldn't have traded Kapanen then. ;-)

I think by the time JT’s contract is over, he will sign a 1mil/year deal with the Leafs till he retires.

 

[Shooter2x]

That's really freaky now. You guys might actually be onto something here.

Knies chose the wrong letter to make silent.

I'm ruining this thread, I'll stop now.