Trades and Free Agency - 2022-23 Season Edition

[BertCorbeau]

I’d be keeping tabs on Vancouver amidst their slow start.

Try to move on from Holl and bring in Schenn with Muzzin out.

Reilly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin-Schenn

 

[stickty111]

Yes.

Milt Dunnell, he's not.

That article reeks of Traikos's Sens fan side worried Robertson will be good

 

[LeafSteel]

That article reeks of Traikos's Sens fan side worried Robertson will be good

I will chalk it up to your explanation. It makes sense.

Your rationale is much kinder than mine: that the man is a blithering idiot.

 

[ULF_55]

A Nylander trade is not meant to be an add, it is a hockey trade intended to rebalance the team. I don't believe that is necessary for us, but after five years of first round exits I don't think we should be allergic to the idea either. If Dubas wants to trade futures for a Chychrun-equivalent player (much like the Muzzin trade) then I'm all for it. But there's only so many trading partners out there and some of them are looking for current players rather than prospects.

Again, there is no need to trade Nylander. My point is that we need a Muzzin replacement, and that need is more important than keeping Nylander. My hot take is that the writing is on the wall regarding Nylander's future here. He's a brilliant player on a great contract, we'd do very well in Nylander trade.

Removing a player who doesn't elevate in post season would make more sense.

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Patrick Kane 50% retained
Connor Murphy

To Chicago-
William Nylander
Justin Holl
Pierre Engvall
1st Round Pick

Then,

To Toronto-
Luke Schenn

To Vancouver-
3rd Round Pick

Bunting-Matthews-Kane
Robertson-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Jarnkrok-Malgin
Aston Reese-Kampf-Auble

Rielly-Murphy
Giordano-Liljegren
Sandin-Schenn

 

[LeafGrief]

Removing a player who doesn't elevate in post season would make more sense.

If the goal is shuffling the deck chairs in search of finally getting the recipe right, then sure. I've been a fan of that strategy for a long time and I suspect it's what is actually going to happen with this core. But I think we all know that shuffling around the Kerfoots and Engvalls of the team isn't going to result in any meaningful change, nor do they have the sort of value to be part of a Muzzin replacement discussion. I think this team is good enough to win it all with what we have so I'm fine with a small shuffle every year, but I also recognize that trading fringe players hasn't changed anything the last five years so I don't expect it to change much in the future.

Again, the issue that I'm hammering away at here is that a Muzzin replacement is the single most important thing for us right now and we should pay big to get it. Muzzin has been one of our biggest playoff performers and his contributions will be sorely missed if he doesn't come back. I keep mentioning Nylander because I am trying to drive home that that is how big we need to be willing to go to fill that need.

 

[Fogelhund]

If our biggest problem has been scoring goals and our top guns are unable to carry the load, that's an argument for needing better depth. The big4 experiment, which for the record I loved every minute of, has not delivered and comes at a very direct cost (40m) of meaning our 3rd and 4th lines are manned by a rotating cast of guys who don't score in the playoffs. Hasn't mattered if they're big and strong, small and skilled, fast or crafty, none of them since Kapanen have scored when it matters. If we're keeping Nylander, that means we're extending him, and I am not excited about another decade with no depth, built around the same core with the same weaknesses. We don't NEED to trade Nylander, but I'm at the point where I'm willing to talk about it.

Muzzin has been one of our most important players in the playoffs every year he's worn a Leafs uniform. I very strongly believe that without his impact, we will have a new big problem. None of our other defensemen bring the presence that he brings, and they can't do it by committee.

Ultimately, I have zero doubt that @Fogelhund is right and that this year will just play out with the pieces we do have.

Our biggest problem isn’t and has never been scoring goals.

 

[LeafGrief]

Our biggest problem isn’t and has never been scoring goals.

I'm inclined to agree, which is why I'm willing to trade one of the big guns for a defender. However, I was responding to @Menzinger 's premise and was happy to discuss my theories within the context he established.

I think our (playoffs) problems are more related to mentality, having guys who hate losing, and guys who can step up when we need them most. We need depth guys like Kapanen who have a knack for big goals, guys who get fired up when the game is on the line, or a goalie who can shut the door in game 7. Our big guns are worth building a team around, but frustratingly they have yet to have the legendary playoff moments that we're dreaming of. The good news is that means the answer might already be in house, it doesn't get much better than Auston Matthews.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I’d be keeping tabs on Vancouver amidst their slow start.

Try to move on from Holl and bring in Schenn with Muzzin out.

Reilly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin-Schenn

Holl is better than Schenn though

 

[SprDaVE]

I’d be keeping tabs on Vancouver amidst their slow start.

Try to move on from Holl and bring in Schenn with Muzzin out.

Reilly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin-Schenn

If we're going to have a lot of LTIR space this year, I don't think it's necessary to trade Holl for a downgrade anymore. To be honest, I think Mete is just as good as Schenn and provides a little more speed.

If Liljegren comes in and does really good after missing some time, I think the Leafs should just sit tight. If he struggles and regresses after his injury, then I would definitely look for an upgrade there.

I would definitely keep an eye on Chychrun though. I like Sandin a lot but I think if they can turn him, along with other assets, into Chychrun... it might be a big upgrade to me. Not sure if Sandin will be able to take the next step here and I think Chychruns skillset fits going forward.

 

[Menzinger]

Wouldn't get much depth this year, but if we're re-signing him to a 9m extension and picking up a Muzzin replacement by way of picks and prospects, we're going to continue being an extremely lean team even after JT's contract ends. That said, if Muzzin goes on LTIR and we move Nylander for a replacement, that's 12.6m out and ~6m(?) in, which does actually open up a fair bit of space.

I agree that there may be some natural rebalancing with the cap expanding. But if we're waiting on three years to pass as part of the plan to solve our depth issues, I think we need to consider alternatives.

As for the replacing the lost points I don't think it's written in stone that we need to remain a top2 offense in the league. It's not unreasonable to trade some offensive capability for defensive capability when we're among the best of the best offenses currently. We scored 315 goals last year, losing 40g outright would still have us as a top10 offense. We don't want to give that up if we don't have to ofc, but it's something we have the luxury of considering.

We're also going to need to replace Kerfoot (50p) and Bunting (50-60p) this summer as well. If we moved Nylander for a defenseman and that enabled us to sign Bunting to a reasonable deal, I think there's some decent value there. There's other ways of keeping Bunting, I'm sure, but that's part of the depth thinking.

It's certainly an interesting debate. Personally I'm of the mindset is if the desire is to breakup the core one likely ultimately has to look "higher" in the lineup depth chart to make a real impact (though obviously that's a bridge I'd hope the team doesn't have to cross).

At the moment I think moving Muzzin + Kerfoot alone this offseason gives the team an interesting amount of capspace to play with paired with the organic growth of the cap.

 

[Menzinger]

If we're going to have a lot of LTIR space this year, I don't think it's necessary to trade Holl for a downgrade anymore. To be honest, I think Mete is just as good as Schenn and provides a little more speed.

If Liljegren comes in and does really good after missing some time, I think the Leafs should just sit tight. If he struggles and regresses after his injury, then I would definitely look for an upgrade there.

Yep. I think Holls internal value has absolutely spiked with the Muzzin injury stuff.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I’d move our 1st for something around Mario Ferraro.

Rielly-Brodie
Ferraro-Giordano
Sandin-Liljegren

 

[Kiwi]

It's certainly an interesting debate. Personally I'm of the mindset is if the desire is to breakup the core one likely ultimately has to look "higher" in the lineup depth chart to make a real impact (though obviously that's a bridge I'd hope the team doesn't have to cross).

At the moment I think moving Muzzin + Kerfoot alone this offseason gives the team an interesting amount of capspace to play with paired with the organic growth of the cap.

I know this probably won't go down well on here but I'd be seriously thinking about keeping Kerfoot around after this year, he's versatile and can play with the core 4 if needs be

I think that has value to us moving forward

Unless Murray proves he's not a walking band aid I'd be looking to offload him and Muzzin, that would open up some room

 

[Menzinger]

I know this probably won't go down well on here but I'd be seriously thinking about keeping Kerfoot around after this year, he's versatile and can play with the core 4 if needs be

I think that has value to us moving forward

Unless Murray proves he's not a walking band aid I'd be looking to offload him and Muzzin, that would open up some room

I'm pro Kerfoot too (not a popular groupe to be in around here lol). But the issue is caphit....

Murray's until proven otherwise is gone by the draft

 

[Kiwi]

I'm pro Kerfoot too (not a popular groupe to be in around here lol). But the issue is caphit....

Murray's until proven otherwise is gone by the draft

Murray + Muzzin+ cap rising could be 11M+
I wouldn't resign bunting either

my plan would be to use the Murray money on a goaltender (Samsonov ideally)

Then use the other 6M+ on either a top 4 defenseman (if Liljegren and Sandin can't hack it) or a really good 3C but I'd keep Kerfoot if Robertson or Knies struggles in a top 6 winger role or a decent 3C isn't available

 

[andora]

Murray + Muzzin+ cap rising could be 11M+
I wouldn't resign bunting either

my plan would be to use the Murray money on a goaltender (Samsonov ideally)

Then use the other 6M+ on either a top 4 defenseman (if Liljegren and Sandin can't hack it) or a really good 3C but I'd keep Kerfoot if Robertson or Knies struggles in a top 6 winger role or a decent 3C isn't available

that's a tight way to plan considering you need them not on LTIR to then maximize the space at the beginning of next season

 

[LeafSteel]

I'm pro Kerfoot too (not a popular groupe to be in around here lol). But the issue is caphit....

Murray's until proven otherwise is gone by the draft

Never been a Kerfoot guy. He’s too vanilla for me.

He is winning me over so far this year. The guy competes, no question about it.

Still think we have lower cost options wiithin the organization that can fill the need, but it’s nice to see someone competing like Kerfoot has this far.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Considering needs and everything, the guys that make sense are Zub, Murphy or Soucy. Get a 6/7th physical d man as depth if possible

How about Mayfield? 30, but big solid defensively RD who can hit, and cap is only $1.5M. Isles need offensive forwards.

 

[notDatsyuk]

To clarify my own stance, I don't think trades ever should be made based on momentary needs. We need a Muzzin replacement for Muzzin, we're already counting on Liljegren to man the right side. It took Dubas months to identify and negotiate the Muzzin trade the first time around. I assume a similar move this year would take just as long.

There's no need to trade Nylander. But I think a Muzzin replacement, aka a #2D to give us an elite 2nd pairing, would be a worthy move. At some point the big4 experiment will end, Nylander is going to command a decent sized raise in two years, and he still has more value due to two years left on his deal. I'm a big Nylander fan, but I rate a Muzzin type player more highly than our fourth most important forward.

He's our second-best player (third-best at worst) and our best valued contract. No way we should trade him for just a 2D.

 

[GQS]

Our biggest problem isn’t and has never been scoring goals.

I disagree. The Leafs are certainly capable of scoring goals in bunches and on paper we should have no problems doing so, but in reality they have trouble scoring goals consistently and often go through periods where they struggle to score especially when we need clutch goals. And this doesn't even include the powerplay which with the talent this team has should be killing it most of the time, but instead has become a major weakness.

If the Leafs could convert even half decently on the powerplay it would make winning games much more easier.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Our biggest problem isn’t and has never been scoring goals.

Sounds like leafgrief is just determined to get rid of Willy, even at such a pathetically bad return.

 

[Fogelhund]

I disagree. The Leafs are certainly capable of scoring goals in bunches and on paper we should have no problems doing so, but in reality they have trouble scoring goals consistently and often go through periods where they struggle to score especially when we need clutch goals. And this doesn't even include the powerplay which with the talent this team has should be killing it most of the time, but instead has become a major weakness.

If the Leafs could convert even half decently on the powerplay it would make winning games much more easier.

Strange comments. The Leafs PP was #1 in the league last year.

They were 4th (of 16) in the league in GF/G in the playoffs last year.

Our first three loses against Tampa last year, we gave up 16 goals in three games. One game we give up seven goals, our goalie is nearly last In The playoffs in SV%, in the bottom half of playoff teams in the regular season too. Meanwhile we scored THREE goals in each of this losses. Just using these THREE goals a game in the loses, puts us in the top half of teams scoring in the playoffs. If you score three goals every game, and lose each of those games, goal scoring is NOT your problem.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm inclined to agree, which is why I'm willing to trade one of the big guns for a defender. However, I was responding to @Menzinger 's premise and was happy to discuss my theories within the context he established.

I think our (playoffs) problems are more related to mentality, having guys who hate losing, and guys who can step up when we need them most. We need depth guys like Kapanen who have a knack for big goals, guys who get fired up when the game is on the line, or a goalie who can shut the door in game 7. Our big guns are worth building a team around, but frustratingly they have yet to have the legendary playoff moments that we're dreaming of. The good news is that means the answer might already be in house, it doesn't get much better than Auston Matthews.

Then you go after a defender who helps you reduce goals against. So far in his career, that isn’t Chychrun.

 

[GQS]

Strange comments. The Leafs PP was #1 in the league last year.

They were 4th (of 16) in the league in GF/G in the playoffs last year.

Our first three loses against Tampa last year, we gave up 16 goals in three games. One game we give up seven goals, our goalie is nearly last In The playoffs in SV%, in the bottom half of playoff teams in the regular season too. Meanwhile we scored THREE goals in each of this losses. Just using these THREE goals a game in the loses, puts us in the top half of teams scoring in the playoffs. If you score three goals every game, and lose each of those games, goal scoring is NOT your problem.

Isn't a big reason for the Leafs powerplay topping the league is because they got off to a hot start and had a good stretch where they were scoring PP goals at a good rate and then it drastically declined in the last couple of months of the season?

In the playoffs they were a not so mightly 4/28 against the Lightning on the PP and especially in game 7 when they had 3 chances and couldn't convert.

As I said the Leafs are certainly capable of scoring alot of goals, but do you not often see them struggle to generate good scoring chances and/or have trouble put away the chances they get? The Yotes game is what I'm talking about where for almost the entire game they weren't able to create many dangerous scoring chances and then at the end they score two and almost three goals to make it look respectable.

With the kind of talent the Leafs have they should look dangerous on offense almost always even if they're not scoring and this isn't the case in a number of games each season that I watch them and its why they so often frustrate their fans.