Trades and Free Agency - 2022/2023 Trade Deadline Edition

[4thline]

I've been thinking about the Durant trade all day. 4 unprotected 1st round picks for 4 seasons of Durant. That is essentially the equivalent of a team trading an unprotected 1st four straight seasons for a high impact rental which doesn't sound nearly as extreme as 4 1st round picks at once. Would people here trade the Leafs next 4 1st round picks (unprotected) for a player who will be around for 4 playoff runs? The only obvious examples of this would be Kaprizov or Robertson or McDavid (of course). There is no precedent (to my knowledge) of 4 unprotected 1st round picks being traded for 1 player which leads me to believe a team could acquire nearly any player if they were willing to offer such a package.

*Obviously, like Durant, the Leafs or any other team would have to create salary to fit this new impact player in.

4 1st rounders is rare because no team wants to have that empty cupboard, drains long term flexibilty, too much risk.

But the value of 4 1sts is not that crazy at all. The age old 1st+ A prospect (1st equivalent) + roster player (1st+) + lesser piece

 

[Morgs]

Normally I don't really like rentals, but the Leafs do have to find a way to actually accomplish something. Matthews and Nylander are UFAs in a year. If he doesn't do everything possible to build the best possible team, he's an idiot. The Leafs are potentially 2 playoff runs away from having nothing to show for the Auston Matthews era, and he's hung up on losing a prospect or draft pick that might help 3-4 years from now?

I just think the issue is that none of the rentals left are worth close to those prices, and even the ones who were already traded probably weren't either besides Horvat. Who's the best one still available? O'Reilly? Toews? The corpse of Kane? I wouldn't be trading a 1st or Niemela/Knies for any of that. I feel like people are taking the quote and taking it as a general statement that the assets aren't available, where it's more likely that they're just not available for the garbage that's left over. Kind of a no-win situation for Dubas in that if he doesn't go big on a player and we don't make it by Tampa he gets roasted. If he does go big and we don't make it by Tampa, it's probably worse because he "wasted assets to save his job". I mean good on him if he doesn't mortgage the future to 'save' his job like so many people would.

Looking exclusively at TSN's trade bait board, there's what, 3? guys I'd consider moving those assets for in Meier, Chychrun, and Karlsson. Maybe Boeser if Vancouver is willing to retain?

 

[Peace Frog]

I just think the issue is that none of the rentals left are worth close to those prices, and even the ones who were already traded probably weren't either besides Horvat. Who's the best one still available? O'Reilly? Toews? The corpse of Kane? I wouldn't be trading a 1st or Niemela/Knies for any of that. I feel like people are taking the quote and taking it as a general statement that the assets aren't available, where it's more likely that they're just not available for the garbage that's left over. Kind of a no-win situation for Dubas in that if he doesn't go big on a player and we don't make it by Tampa he gets roasted. If he does go big and we don't make it by Tampa, it's probably worse because he "wasted assets to save his job". I mean good on him if he doesn't mortgage the future to 'save' his job like so many people would.

Looking exclusively at TSN's trade bait board, there's what, 3? guys I'd consider moving those assets for in Meier, Chychrun, and Karlsson. Maybe Boeser if Vancouver is willing to retain?

Meier and Chychrun are the only two that I would be okay with giving up Knies for. As far as a 1st round pick… that’s a different story.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Being weary of trading Knies makes sense given how the Leafs lack Knies’ strength in abundance across the organization. Not being willing to move the first however is ridiculous. If you can improve the team without moving it fine but if the difference between getting your target and not is throwing in a first he should do it without a second thought.

Of course Dubas may very well be bullshitting not wanting to show his hand. I hope that’s the case.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I just think the issue is that none of the rentals left are worth close to those prices, and even the ones who were already traded probably weren't either besides Horvat. Who's the best one still available? O'Reilly? Toews? The corpse of Kane? I wouldn't be trading a 1st or Niemela/Knies for any of that. I feel like people are taking the quote and taking it as a general statement that the assets aren't available, where it's more likely that they're just not available for the garbage that's left over. Kind of a no-win situation for Dubas in that if he doesn't go big on a player and we don't make it by Tampa he gets roasted. If he does go big and we don't make it by Tampa, it's probably worse because he "wasted assets to save his job". I mean good on him if he doesn't mortgage the future to 'save' his job like so many people would.

Looking exclusively at TSN's trade bait board, there's what, 3? guys I'd consider moving those assets for in Meier, Chychrun, and Karlsson. Maybe Boeser if Vancouver is willing to retain?

I guess it depends if you consider Meier a rental or not. I think the Leafs should be 100% committed to acquiring him, even if it costs Knies and they can't afford to keep him.

I can't speak for anyone besides myself, but I'd have no qualms with Dubas doing whatever it takes to make the team as good as they possibly can be. There's nothing that really matters aside from winning now. I'd be much more annoyed at him if he makes another safe move for a mediocre target like a Foligno or Lyubushkin and they lose

 

[WTFMAN99]

I just think the issue is that none of the rentals left are worth close to those prices, and even the ones who were already traded probably weren't either besides Horvat. Who's the best one still available? O'Reilly? Toews? The corpse of Kane? I wouldn't be trading a 1st or Niemela/Knies for any of that. I feel like people are taking the quote and taking it as a general statement that the assets aren't available, where it's more likely that they're just not available for the garbage that's left over. Kind of a no-win situation for Dubas in that if he doesn't go big on a player and we don't make it by Tampa he gets roasted. If he does go big and we don't make it by Tampa, it's probably worse because he "wasted assets to save his job". I mean good on him if he doesn't mortgage the future to 'save' his job like so many people would.

Looking exclusively at TSN's trade bait board, there's what, 3? guys I'd consider moving those assets for in Meier, Chychrun, and Karlsson. Maybe Boeser if Vancouver is willing to retain?

I'd only want Karlsson on this team if Rielly wasn't on it.

 

[LaPlante94]

I just think the issue is that none of the rentals left are worth close to those prices, and even the ones who were already traded probably weren't either besides Horvat. Who's the best one still available? O'Reilly? Toews? The corpse of Kane? I wouldn't be trading a 1st or Niemela/Knies for any of that. I feel like people are taking the quote and taking it as a general statement that the assets aren't available, where it's more likely that they're just not available for the garbage that's left over. Kind of a no-win situation for Dubas in that if he doesn't go big on a player and we don't make it by Tampa he gets roasted. If he does go big and we don't make it by Tampa, it's probably worse because he "wasted assets to save his job". I mean good on him if he doesn't mortgage the future to 'save' his job like so many people would.

Looking exclusively at TSN's trade bait board, there's what, 3? guys I'd consider moving those assets for in Meier, Chychrun, and Karlsson. Maybe Boeser if Vancouver is willing to retain?

Would Boeser even cost much these days? Meier is still my main target with Chychrun being 2nd now. Barbashev is my 3rd.

 

[LaPlante94]

I'd only want Karlsson on this team if Rielly wasn't on it.

Rielly-Liljegren
Brodie-Karlsson

Doesn't look too bad. Only thing that scares me about Karlsson is his 11.5 mil cap hit until he's 37, but who knows, maybe he stays the same dynamic player and doesn't slow down at all and San Jose would retain on that contract until it ends.

 

[Gabriel426]

Kerfoot for Garland with 20% rentention is a good deal for both sides. Bc Kerfoot actually is someone who would resign with the Nucks and the can play the home town boy coming home feel good story.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Rielly-Liljegren
Brodie-Karlsson

Doesn't look too bad. Only thing that scares me about Karlsson is his 11.5 mil cap hit until he's 37, but who knows, maybe he stays the same dynamic player and doesn't slow down at all and San Jose would retain on that contract until it ends.

It's a hard no for me. There is no spin on it that would make me okay with adding someone like that and keeping Rielly. You can have 1 offensively inclined, poor defensive guy on your blue line but that's it.

 

[Morgs]

I guess it depends if you consider Meier a rental or not. I think the Leafs should be 100% committed to acquiring him, even if it costs Knies and they can't afford to keep him.

I can't speak for anyone besides myself, but I'd have no qualms with Dubas doing whatever it takes to make the team as good as they possibly can be. There's nothing that really matters aside from winning now. I'd be much more annoyed at him if he makes another safe move for a mediocre target like a Foligno or Lyubushkin and they lose

I don't consider Meier a rental. Without hesitation i'd trade Knies, our 1st, and likely more. It ju feels like San Jose could get a better haul with Carolina or New Jersey but it depends on how they value guys like Jarvis/Holtz/Knies and which ones each team deems expendable.

I agree and I think I'd be annoyed if that happens too, but it also feels like there's currently a no-win situation he needs to win. He's built a top-5 team who's only weakness is basically bottom-6 scoring. For me if there isnt a legit impact upgrade (top-pair/top-6/3C) available with a palatable ask he'd better not waste significant assets going after the Lyubushkins of the world. I'd much rather he stands pat because the team is good enough as is, and the onus really needs to be on the core to get over the hump.

 

[Kiwi]

I guess it depends if you consider Meier a rental or not. I think the Leafs should be 100% committed to acquiring him, even if it costs Knies and they can't afford to keep him.

I can't speak for anyone besides myself, but I'd have no qualms with Dubas doing whatever it takes to make the team as good as they possibly can be. There's nothing that really matters aside from winning now. I'd be much more annoyed at him if he makes another safe move for a mediocre target like a Foligno or Lyubushkin and they lose

So you blow your brains out for this off-season and it doesn't work out, what then? Hell even if it does work out for this post season

You more than likely need to sell Meier or Nylander at a loss and you have emptied the cubbords in the mid to near future so going forward the organizations future is compromised

Matthews isn't an idiot, are we supposed to believe that he doesn't look at the organization with minimal help coming and feel good about the future? Is that going to make him keener on signing long term?

It's all well and good saying win now and no tomorrow but the future matters, especially if Matthews does resign

 

[Morgs]

Would Boeser even cost much these days? Meier is still my main target with Chychrun being 2nd now. Barbashev is my 3rd.

Probably not much, but I'm sure with the retention we could really use the price would increase.

 

[WTFMAN99]

So you blow your brains out for this off-season and it doesn't work out, what then? Hell even if it does work out for this post season

You more than likely need to sell Meier or Nylander at a loss and you have emptied the cubbords in the mid to near future so going forward the organizations future is compromised

Matthews isn't an idiot, are we supposed to believe that he doesn't look at the organization with minimal help coming and feel good about the future? Is that going to make him keener on signing long term?

It's all well and good saying win now and no tomorrow but the future matters, especially if Matthews does resign

You will need a GM with some stones come this summer too.

The goal should be to have Matthews and Nylander's names on new contracts for July 1st and negotiate them in principle by the draft, if not you should move on. Offer them the best you can do and if it's not enough, you can't risk them walking for nothing.

 

[ULF_55]

Again with the ridiculous hot takes, eh? Moved on from trying to “save” Nylander have you?

No goaltenders.
No grit.
Soft defense.
No third or fourth line.

Does that sound like a team you trade your future hope for in the East?

 

[Duke16]

I think the impact player or bust approach is narrow-minded even though it is probably ideal... but the Leafs should be able to get some bottom six scoring if they add a mid 6 quality F or two (at least one with term ideally).

They can then be in a spot where everyone in their bottom 6 has some baseline ability to produce above the rates of ZAR and many of the callups. Pushing a pure defensive guy like that out doesn't really effect the bottom 6 defensively all that much if you still have Kerfoot, Engvall, Kampf, and Holmberg in there. Two decent forwards to round that out (preferably more offensively inclined). Just toss both Garland/Vatrano both in there for the sake of having a name linked to a spot. That roster is now loaded, and probably one of the best producing Bottom 6's that exists in this league. No excuse. There would be several players underperformed greatly for scoring to be the reason for a Playoff loss.

 

[dubplatepressure]

No goaltenders.
No grit.
Soft defense.
No third or fourth line.

Does that sound like a team you trade your future hope for in the East?

I doubt you care about my opinion on this, but that is a more productive contribution to this conversation, at least. FWIW once we came off that hot stretch early/mid December I felt it difficult to continue thinking of them as a true contender. IMO they still lack consistency in all 3 zones; a decent PP but cannot rely on that for production in the postseason as we've seen many times before (we don't get the calls); suspect PK this year.

Contrast that to the reality that is the playoffs, where you just never know - once you're in anything can happen. We've seen some fairly mediocre teams get hot and go on long PO runs over the last 10-15 years, and there's no reason to think that can't happen to us, as unrealistic as that might be.

I do think now is the time this team should be going 'all-in' more than in years past; the window is now. If they can land a couple of big fish that are not rentals and will help in the next 2-3 years to balance their roster I think they need to strongly consider it. We aren't drafting another Nylaner, Mathews, or Marner with 15-20 OV 1st round picks that will help in the next 2-3 years, and we have no blue chip prospects, with Knies being a tier below. So IMO the time is now.

 

[Kelly]

No goaltenders.
No grit.
Soft defense.
No third or fourth line.

Does that sound like a team you trade your future hope for in the East?

Is Samsonov not a goaltender? What am I missing.

Pretty sure we have a third and fourth line too.

Rest of it;

 

[Menzinger]

Meier is pretty much a non starter for the team. He's only going to be with the addition if it involves an extension,.which he may not wish to sign right away. And it would mean that one of the big 4 or Reilly would need to be traded for sure in the offseason which is likely a decision the front office wouldn't want to be locked into making just yet

I've been thinking about the Durant trade all day. 4 unprotected 1st round picks for 4 seasons of Durant. That is essentially the equivalent of a team trading an unprotected 1st four straight seasons for a high impact rental which doesn't sound nearly as extreme as 4 1st round picks at once. Would people here trade the Leafs next 4 1st round picks (unprotected) for a player who will be around for 4 playoff runs? The only obvious examples of this would be Kaprizov or Robertson or McDavid (of course). There is no precedent (to my knowledge) of 4 unprotected 1st round picks being traded for 1 player which leads me to believe a team could acquire nearly any player if they were willing to offer such a package.

*Obviously, like Durant, the Leafs or any other team would have to create salary to fit this new impact player in.

The NBA is definitely a lot more exciting league when it comes to player movement. Too many structures like a rigidly hard cap ultimately constrain hockey teams from following suite

 

[ULF_55]

I doubt you care about my opinion on this, but that is a more productive contribution to this conversation, at least. FWIW once we came off that hot stretch early/mid December I felt it difficult to continue thinking of them as a true contender. IMO they still lack consistency in all 3 zones; a decent PP but cannot rely on that for production in the postseason as we've seen many times before (we don't get the calls); suspect PK this year.

Contrast that to the reality that is the playoffs, where you just never know - once you're in anything can happen. We've seen some fairly mediocre teams get hot and go on long PO runs over the last 10-15 years, and there's no reason to think that can't happen to us, as unrealistic as that might be.

I do think now is the time this team should be going 'all-in' more than in years past; the window is now. If they can land a couple of big fish that are not rentals and will help in the next 2-3 years to balance their roster I think they need to strongly consider it. We aren't drafting another Nylaner, Mathews, or Marner with 15-20 OV 1st round picks that will help in the next 2-3 years, and we have no blue chip prospects, with Knies being a tier below. So IMO the time is now.

I think 2 players, and someone to play up to their potential between the pipes.

1. Two top 6 fowards.
or
2. One top 6 forward and a top 2 defender, but I'd prefer 1 above.

It is really up to marner and Matthews to elevate their games.

If they can't, and they haven't yet, then I don't think it matters. Against Montreal ... sigh.

Of course if Liljegren, Timmins and Sandin elevate their games maybe there is no need for the defender.

Also not sold on the coach.

Tongue-in-cheek, if they were sellers, perhaps next year they land a coach who gets the best out of the team, and has done it before in the last decade.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think the impact player or bust approach is narrow-minded even though it is probably ideal... but the Leafs should be able to get some bottom six scoring if they add a mid 6 quality F or two (at least one with term ideally).

They can then be in a spot where everyone in their bottom 6 has some baseline ability to produce above the rates of ZAR and many of the callups. Pushing a pure defensive guy like that out doesn't really effect the bottom 6 defensively all that much if you still have Kerfoot, Engvall, Kampf, and Holmberg in there. Two decent forwards to round that out (preferably more offensively inclined). Just toss both Garland/Vatrano both in there for the sake of having a name linked to a spot. That roster is now loaded, and probably one of the best producing Bottom 6's that exists in this league. No excuse. There would be several players underperformed greatly for scoring to be the reason for a Playoff loss.

I can see the Leafs getting a little bit creative and trying to add Nyquist for cheap. Then also add in a center (i.e. ROR) and Knies and you have good depth to match without breaking the bank for rentals asset-wise either.

 

[Duke16]

I can see the Leafs getting a little bit creative and trying to add Nyquist for cheap. Then also add in a center (i.e. ROR) and Knies and you have good depth to match without breaking the bank for rentals asset-wise either.

I like the Nyquist route a lot if they don't place many expectations on it. Just slot him on the fourth line for Game One and see what he does with it. Much more of an X-factor than what we have now.

 

[Peace Frog]

So many posters have so many different ideas of what Dubas should do at this trade deadline. He’s definitely damned if he does; damned if he don’t.

The funny thing is, most of the ideas we all have, are ones that could work. The problem is, these ideas don’t guarantee anything and could end up being complete failures.

Whatever Dubas does, is going to be risky, and luck is going to be needed. Hmmm…. the last time I remember the Leafs getting lucky, was when we won the draft lottery and picked Matthews.

 

[kb]

Normally I don't really like rentals, but the Leafs do have to find a way to actually accomplish something. Matthews and Nylander are UFAs in a year. If he doesn't do everything possible to build the best possible team, he's an idiot. The Leafs are potentially 2 playoff runs away from having nothing to show for the Auston Matthews era, and he's hung up on losing a prospect or draft pick that might help 3-4 years from now?

The inverse is that Dubas blows his brains out and makes big trades for big names that the Leafs can't afford to keep as rentals, the Leafs lose, and there is no future prospects or draft capital.

That will drive those 2 out of town much more quickly than standing pat IMO.

 

[kb]

I can see the Leafs getting a little bit creative and trying to add Nyquist for cheap. Then also add in a center (i.e. ROR) and Knies and you have good depth to match without breaking the bank for rentals asset-wise either.

I just don't see the upside. He's a historically bad playoff performer, and he's coming in as an older player off a poor season and off of a serious injury. It would take Matthews or Murray going onto LTIR now just to be able to add him.

And it might actually end up costing the Leafs a more productive add that will have time to adjust if they have to use any draft capital to acquire him. Gogolev is as high as I go.

Or go for Gavrikov (with retention) and Nyquist. Nyquist should bring the cost down for a retained Gavrikov.