Trades and Free Agency - 2022/2023 Trade Deadline Edition

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If Washington were to make them available either/both of Hathaway & Jensen are both guys that can really play a role for the Leafs.

I'd imagine there'd be a decent bidding for both, not sure what the cost would come to.

Jensen a RHD version of Brodie.

Hathaway would be an incredible 4th liner to have.

They are both UFA's so if they have no interest in re-signing them, it could happen.

It just depends how hard they wanna push for a playoff spot. They are right in the mix of things but currently on the outside. They are 3-7 in their last 10 so with this trend, they won't make it. Might not be a bad time for them to reload and retool around their locked up veterans.

Jensen has been underrated for awhile.
 
linked from reddit (not my image) -

2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs Mid-Season Skater Efficiency Metrics (stats from TopDownHockey, MoneyPuck, & Hockey Reference)​


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Rielly... oof.

I don't know about this stuff. Matthews has played at a near Selke level this year and yet his dWAR is 13%? Kerfoot at 97% in dWar? Lots of odd data points in there like that.
 
I don't know about this stuff. Matthews has played at a near Selke level this year and yet his dWAR is 13%? Kerfoot at 97% in dWar? Lots of odd data points in there like that.
Some of those metrics have trouble recognizing good defensive players on a line that's performing poorly defensively.
Matthews does pretty much all of the heavy lifting on that line defensively, but there's only so much one person can do.
That configuration has largely escaped the heat by their goaltending performing really well behind them (and just being a monster offensively).
As for Kerfoot, he is actually good defensively, but people only see the more noticeable mistake.
 
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Wish list: Mcdonagh or ekholm. Probably Ryan because ekholms cost would be enormous…McDonagh would add some nice competitiveness to our D and bump Gio or holl down whatever side.

Kerfoot++ for mcdonagh

Mcdonagh brodie
Rielly lilly
Gio holl
Sandin Timmins benn

If holl goes with kerfoot then just play sandin or Timmins 3rd pair, or switch brodie to LD.

How much would Ekholm cost? Sandin, Minten, and something else?

Nashville could be the middle team in a Kerfoot retain trade as well. We move the cap space and Nashville picks up a good asset to retain half of his 3.5 million cap hit while only paying like 125,000 real money.

Toronto gets Ekholm and Jeannot.
Nashville gets Sandin, Minten, and Hirvonen… plus Kerfoot to re-deal.

Agreed Holls fine until he plays top 4 minutes and especially top 2 minutes …then he just has brain farts and it usually ends up in our net a few seconds later.

Holl is often passable, but he folds under pressure. He’s at his worst when the game matters most. He can’t be on the ice in those times.
 
How much would Ekholm cost? Sandin, Minten, and something else?

Nashville could be the middle team in a Kerfoot retain trade as well. We move the cap space and Nashville picks up a good asset to retain half of his 3.5 million cap hit while only paying like 125,000 real money.

Toronto gets Ekholm and Jeannot.
Nashville gets Sandin, Minten, and Hirvonen… plus Kerfoot to re-deal.



Holl is often passable, but he folds under pressure. He’s at his worst when the game matters most. He can’t be on the ice in those times.
Unless we're going for a big swing on a top defensemen like Josi I really don't see the need to move Sandin for a guy like Ekholm.

I like Ekholm but no way some of these middle pair D are worth some of these packages.
 
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How much would Ekholm cost? Sandin, Minten, and something else?

Nashville could be the middle team in a Kerfoot retain trade as well. We move the cap space and Nashville picks up a good asset to retain half of his 3.5 million cap hit while only paying like 125,000 real money.

Toronto gets Ekholm and Jeannot.
Nashville gets Sandin, Minten, and Hirvonen… plus Kerfoot to re-deal.

Not sure the Leafs would risk that much to take Ekholm and his 3 years left on his contract but... That could be a huge immediate upgrade for sure.

I think people sleep on Sandins value though. He should be worth a lot more in this type of deal.
 
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After the trade and seeing the double retention and the fact there was more cap than expected, I really felt something else of fair magnitude was on the way.

After a few days and things calming down after the trade, I'm not quite feeling that anymore. I'd be shocked if there is anything more done at forward. Especially if there is truly a plan for Knies, then you've essentially added a whole new line while also knowing guys like Holmberg, McMann etc... can at least fill in in a pinch.

Defence seems to be the spot but it's tricky. A depth guy just creates a bigger musical chairs issue. A big name might be out of the price range and really not sure how many realistic names are out there.

I think a couple days before the deadline we see a depth move and then on deadline day we see one those classic deals that rolls in at 4:05. "Oh and the Leafs did actually make one last move that is trickling in with all the late ones. It's a depth move. Marlies forward Marc Johnstone for insert AHL defender here."

Deadline day is always a bust with all the big names moving before, but there are still a few mid sized deals done that day, maybe even one big one. But I feel like the Leafs are never in on those day of deals.
 
After the trade and seeing the double retention and the fact there was more cap than expected, I really felt something else of fair magnitude was on the way.

After a few days and things calming down after the trade, I'm not quite feeling that anymore. I'd be shocked if there is anything more done at forward. Especially if there is truly a plan for Knies, then you've essentially added a whole new line while also knowing guys like Holmberg, McMann etc... can at least fill in in a pinch.

Defence seems to be the spot but it's tricky. A depth guy just creates a bigger musical chairs issue. A big name might be out of the price range and really not sure how many realistic names are out there.

I think a couple days before the deadline we see a depth move and then on deadline day we see one those classic deals that rolls in at 4:05. "Oh and the Leafs did actually make one last move that is trickling in with all the late ones. It's a depth move. Marlies forward Marc Johnstone for insert AHL defender here."

Deadline day is always a bust with all the big names moving before, but there are still a few mid sized deals done that day, maybe even one big one. But I feel like the Leafs are never in on those day of deals.
Thats true.

Knies-O'Rielly-Accari

Is a solid 3rd line that doesn't disrupt what we've built.

Jarnkrok/Kerfoot/Engvall/ZAR/Holmberg (maybe Knies too)
Along with Marlies can battle filling in the cracks. (With 2LW being the ultimate prize)

Bunt-AM-WN
____-JT-MM
____-ROR-Accari
____-Kampf-____


We have a glut of wingers...maybe not the premiere type, but all teams have role players and we finally have the deepest center depth I've ever witnessed.
 
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Schenn, Mayfield, Murphy, probably one of those or a similar type guy is my guess
or they go someone like McCabe, less clear the net but shot blocker and mobile in your face
 
I’m not one of those who think Holl is terrible. He certainly has a role that he’s good for (pk + bottom pair). There are attributes there of a solid defenseman. But, to me, his biggest issue is that he fancies himself an offensive defenseman and for some inexplicable reason, no one has coached it out of him. He is the only D on the team that I swear jumps up into the play, every single time. He ends up behind the opposition goal line far too much for someone of his skillset and he makes bad bad pinches instead of falling back into defensive posture
 
If St. Louis is rebuilding I would want Parayko to be our target.
Trade them
Holl and Kerfoot and Topi along with our 2024 1st giving them our 1st and 2nd round picks that year.

Colton played with Morgan in the worlds and to be honest would certainly shore up our D.

Send Arizona - a choice of Kalgren or Woll , and Joey Anderson , a 2024 4th, 2025 2nd for Vegmelka @%50 retained and Bjugstad
 
If St. Louis is rebuilding I would want Parayko to be our target.
Trade them
Holl and Kerfoot and Topi along with our 2024 1st giving them our 1st and 2nd round picks that year.

Colton played with Morgan in the worlds and to be honest would certainly shore up our D.

Send Arizona - a choice of Kalgren or Woll , and Joey Anderson , a 2024 4th, 2025 2nd for Vegmelka @%50 retained and Bjugstad
Parayko of a few years ago sure, not sure if I like that idea now.

Only D that really interests me on the non-playoff teams would be Andrew Peeke. I don't like the cost it would take though.
 
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If St. Louis is rebuilding I would want Parayko to be our target.
Trade them
Holl and Kerfoot and Topi along with our 2024 1st giving them our 1st and 2nd round picks that year.

Colton played with Morgan in the worlds and to be honest would certainly shore up our D.

Send Arizona - a choice of Kalgren or Woll , and Joey Anderson , a 2024 4th, 2025 2nd for Vegmelka @%50 retained and Bjugstad

7 more years at $6.5M for an almost 30 year old Parayko would be tough to absorb.
 
He's providing a summary of all the players drafted with the picks the Leafs traded away. In sum: no big loss.
Seems like a pretty silly analysis.
Is he assuming that Dubas, who has never made a bad pick, would have selected those same players?
 
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Seth Jarvis is a good player and the funny thing about that draft, was that there were a clear top 13 players. And while it was tough to predict the order leading up to the draft, the top 13 all went 1-13, which is really rare. So kinda funny the Leafs had 13....

Ceulemans is a little early to judge. The rest who knows. It's fine to give up draft picks. That is what contenders do. I find that this team has given up a few too many, but if you can find guys like Knies later on, that helps.

So you can see I'm kind of in the middle. I'll admit I do find it annoying though when you hear a lot of "Who cares about the 2023 pick, it won't help for 5 years." And yes that is likely true. And I think a lot of people look at Liljegren and Sandin and their slower development.

But that isn't always the case. I realize I'm mostly speaking to the outliers here. But aren't we about to pencil in a player who was not even drafted two years ago into our lineup? What about Dawson Mercer on the Devils, Braeden Schneider on the Rangers or Wyatt Johnston on the Stars?

I think you need to take a balanced thought process and approach when it comes to picks. Most won't help for 5 years or even at all, but some will. Making the next deal using for example the 2024 1st is tempting if the return is great, but you also can't keep doing it over and over again.
 
He's providing a summary of all the players drafted with the picks the Leafs traded away. In sum: no big loss.
To be fair a lot of those guys were just drafted so need time to let them develop. If it was the other way around people would be saying need time to develop first. I do think in the end it will turn into nothing but you never know.
 
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Seth Jarvis is a good player and the funny thing about that draft, was that there were a clear top 13 players. And while it was tough to predict the order leading up to the draft, the top 13 all went 1-13, which is really rare. So kinda funny the Leafs had 13....

Ceulemans is a little early to judge. The rest who knows. It's fine to give up draft picks. That is what contenders do. I find that this team has given up a few too many, but if you can find guys like Knies later on, that helps.

So you can see I'm kind of in the middle. I'll admit I do find it annoying though when you hear a lot of "Who cares about the 2023 pick, it won't help for 5 years." And yes that is likely true. And I think a lot of people look at Liljegren and Sandin and their slower development.

But that isn't always the case. I realize I'm mostly speaking to the outliers here. But aren't we about to pencil in a player who was not even drafted two years ago into our lineup? What about Dawson Mercer on the Devils, Braeden Schneider on the Rangers or Wyatt Johnston on the Stars?

I think you need to take a balanced thought process and approach when it comes to picks. Most won't help for 5 years or even at all, but some will. Making the next deal using for example the 2024 1st is tempting if the return is great, but you also can't keep doing it over and over again.
Nice. Wouldn't be so bad if we got playoff results for all those picks.
 
I'm actually surprised at how many proposals here send Sandin out to bring in another LHD.

Forget the cap hit, Sandin's development, and his ceiling, I'm also looking at the long term and our LHD situation, both now and the future.

You have Reilly and Sandin currently, with 39 year old Giordano and 33 year old Brodie (in June) who is a UFA in 23-24 with a current Cap Hit of $5M.

How long do we expect Giordano to carry the load that he has, and how long can he realistically do it for?

With our upcoming Cap crunch, with decisions to be made with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and now O'Rielly, is re-signing Brodie even an option anymore?

Who is LHD pipeline on the Marlies? Kral? Rifai? Hoefenmeyer? How close are they to being viable everyday players for us, and are they an improvement on Sandin?

Moving Sandin to bring in another LHD seems like a lateral move at best, and doesn't really answer for me what the plan is long-term to ensure our LHD remains strong. The kid is still young, has a very reasonable contract and still has plenty of room to continue developing. Does he do everything perfect? Nope, but if that is the criteria for any player, I think we are already screwed and it's kind of ridiculous.
 
I like Sandin and if Rielly wasn't in the equation we should keep him 100'percent but there is no point in having two Riellys essentially. Rielly won't waive his NTC so unfortunately that means Sandin is the more likely to leave.
We need a different element in the back(big, physical, defensive)
 
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