Trades and Free Agency - 2022/2023 Trade Deadline Edition

[showtime8]

I'm actually surprised at how many proposals here send Sandin out to bring in another LHD.

Forget the cap hit, Sandin's development, and his ceiling, I'm also looking at the long term and our LHD situation, both now and the future.

You have Reilly and Sandin currently, with 39 year old Giordano and 33 year old Brodie (in June) who is a UFA in 23-24 with a current Cap Hit of $5M.

How long do we expect Giordano to carry the load that he has, and how long can he realistically do it for?

With our upcoming Cap crunch, with decisions to be made with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and now O'Rielly, is re-signing Brodie even an option anymore?

Who is LHD pipeline on the Marlies? Kral? Rifai? Hoefenmeyer? How close are they to being viable everyday players for us, and are they an improvement on Sandin?

Moving Sandin to bring in another LHD seems like a lateral move at best, and doesn't really answer for me what the plan is long-term to ensure our LHD remains strong. The kid is still young, has a very reasonable contract and still has plenty of room to continue developing. Does he do everything perfect? Nope, but if that is the criteria for any player, I think we are already screwed and it's kind of ridiculous.

Outside of the cap hit, what are your expectations of Sandin? Is he a really good #3 or #4 on a Stanley Cup winning team?

This is where I struggle with Sandin. I don't ever think he will be the #1 defenseman on the power play. And I'm not sure what his ceiling is offensively. But I'm not sure where he ends up topping out in a roster.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TMLAM34]

I'm actually surprised at how many proposals here send Sandin out to bring in another LHD.

Forget the cap hit, Sandin's development, and his ceiling, I'm also looking at the long term and our LHD situation, both now and the future.

You have Reilly and Sandin currently, with 39 year old Giordano and 33 year old Brodie (in June) who is a UFA in 23-24 with a current Cap Hit of $5M.

How long do we expect Giordano to carry the load that he has, and how long can he realistically do it for?

With our upcoming Cap crunch, with decisions to be made with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and now O'Rielly, is re-signing Brodie even an option anymore?

Who is LHD pipeline on the Marlies? Kral? Rifai? Hoefenmeyer? How close are they to being viable everyday players for us, and are they an improvement on Sandin?

Moving Sandin to bring in another LHD seems like a lateral move at best, and doesn't really answer for me what the plan is long-term to ensure our LHD remains strong. The kid is still young, has a very reasonable contract and still has plenty of room to continue developing. Does he do everything perfect? Nope, but if that is the criteria for any player, I think we are already screwed and it's kind of ridiculous.

The only way I move Sandin is if we’re getting a more established top four defenceman that’s 28 years of age or younger. I’m not really interested in trading him for anyone entering their mid 30s that have term on their contract.

 

[TMLAM34]

I wonder if Nashville would consider moving Tomasino. Seems to have fallen out of favour in Nashville.

 

[Stephen]

Outside of the cap hit, what are your expectations of Sandin? Is he a really good #3 or #4 on a Stanley Cup winning team?

This is where I struggle with Sandin. I don't ever think he will be the #1 defenseman on the power play. And I'm not sure what his ceiling is offensively. But I'm not sure where he ends up topping out in a roster.

You’ll notice even the most bullish Sandin supporters stop up when asked what they think he’ll become.

I get the value if a slow and small, high IQ guy is giving you Adam Fox type offense and Norris caliber play. That’s so unique you build around him and support with a bigger blueline. I get it and have time for it.

Where I struggle with Sandin and blueline construction is even Fox needs to be surrounded by guys like Trouba, Miller, and that nasty piece of work from Boston who is escaping me at the moment. Are we going to build that infrastructure around Sandin? Doesn’t look like it. So what’s the payoff in having a smarter, slower version of Dermott who also doesn’t generate any offense?

If we can trade him for a young top 4 with other attributes and a better fit, I’m doing it in a heartbeat.

 

[Stephen]

I wonder if Nashville would consider moving Tomasino. Seems to have fallen out of favour in Nashville.

I would love Jeannot on the rebound.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Seth Jarvis is a good player and the funny thing about that draft, was that there were a clear top 13 players. And while it was tough to predict the order leading up to the draft, the top 13 all went 1-13, which is really rare. So kinda funny the Leafs had 13....

Ceulemans is a little early to judge. The rest who knows. It's fine to give up draft picks. That is what contenders do. I find that this team has given up a few too many, but if you can find guys like Knies later on, that helps.

So you can see I'm kind of in the middle. I'll admit I do find it annoying though when you hear a lot of "Who cares about the 2023 pick, it won't help for 5 years." And yes that is likely true. And I think a lot of people look at Liljegren and Sandin and their slower development.

But that isn't always the case. I realize I'm mostly speaking to the outliers here. But aren't we about to pencil in a player who was not even drafted two years ago into our lineup? What about Dawson Mercer on the Devils, Braeden Schneider on the Rangers or Wyatt Johnston on the Stars?

I think you need to take a balanced thought process and approach when it comes to picks. Most won't help for 5 years or even at all, but some will. Making the next deal using for example the 2024 1st is tempting if the return is great, but you also can't keep doing it over and over again.

Imo the main problem is the slow drip of picks year over year for rentals rather than bundling 1st + 2nd + 2nd or 2 1sts for a Lindholm/Hagel/McDonagh that can play a big role for a few years. If O’Rielly and Acciari re-sign or if Foligno stayed healthy at his current level of play in Boston and replaced Kerfoot’s money those deals get more palatable, but I’d still have preferred to spend more like we did with Muzzin.

1st + 2 2nds (or equivalent prospects) for an impact piece with term every other year, make 3 picks in the top-90 in the in-between years is more sustainable for a cup window than spending a 1st+ on half-measure rentals every year, especially if you’re also churning out middle of the lineup RFAs that you can turn into high picks like Kapanen when they price themselves out.

I think Chychrun is the wrong guy to target for this with his injury history but just using him as a placeholder name, spending 2 1sts + 2nd-equivalent prospect on him and flipping Sandin for a 1st at the draft would be better for keeping a healthy pipeline longterm than the current strategy while also making us more competitive in the playoffs.

 

[showtime8]

You’ll notice even the most bullish Sandin supporters stop up when asked what they think he’ll become.

I get the value if a slow and small, high IQ guy is giving you Adam Fox type offense and Norris caliber play. That’s so unique you build around him and support with a bigger blueline. I get it and have time for it.

Where I struggle with Sandin and blueline construction is even Fox needs to be surrounded by guys like Trouba, Miller, and that nasty piece of work from Boston who is escaping me at the moment. Are we going to build that infrastructure around Sandin? Doesn’t look like it. So what’s the payoff in having a smarter, slower version of Dermott who also doesn’t generate any offense?

If we can trade him for a young top 4 with other attributes and a better fit, I’m doing it in a heartbeat.

Yeah, I think this is where most of us sit in terms of analysis on the player.

Ultimately, we'd love to give it time for him to come around to his full potential in 2-4 years, but realistically, the Leafs and management don't get that opportunity.

For trade purposes, I still have to think that it's going to be for a player with term that would replace him. I can't see that Dubas would come out and say they're looking for some cost certainty and then trade for 2 guys that are UFAs. That doesn't seem like that that's the only trade they're making.

 

[LeafSteel]

You’ll notice even the most bullish Sandin supporters stop up when asked what they think he’ll become.

I get the value if a slow and small, high IQ guy is giving you Adam Fox type offense and Norris caliber play. That’s so unique you build around him and support with a bigger blueline. I get it and have time for it.

Where I struggle with Sandin and blueline construction is even Fox needs to be surrounded by guys like Trouba, Miller, and that nasty piece of work from Boston who is escaping me at the moment. Are we going to build that infrastructure around Sandin? Doesn’t look like it. So what’s the payoff in having a smarter, slower version of Dermott who also doesn’t generate any offense?

If we can trade him for a young top 4 with other attributes and a better fit, I’m doing it in a heartbeat.

My answer to that question is another question: what would you be trading Sandin for? If it’s for a similar age, contract term bonafide 4LHD I say trade Sandin away, but who is that and what else needs to go to make it happen? Chychrun? McCabe? Gavrikov? Those last 2 are UFA’s. What are they re-signing for, and how does the money work with everything else? Finally, what are we giving up to get them here?

I’m all for making the team better and Sandin is one of those players that can be improved on. I am just wary of what the improvement is, how to make it happen, and where does it leave from an assets cost and what cap cost implications come along with it?

 

[Fogelhund]

Sandin doesn't drive offense...

 

[kb]

My answer to that question is another question: what would you be trading Sandin for? If it’s for a similar age, contract term bonafide 4LHD I say trade Sandin away, but who is that and what else needs to go to make it happen? Chychrun? McCabe? Gavrikov? Those last 2 are UFA’s. What are they re-signing for, and how does the money work with everything else? Finally, what are we giving up to get them here?

I’m all for making the team better and Sandin is one of those players that can be improved on. I am just wary of what the improvement is, how to make it happen, and where does it leave from an assets cost and what cap cost implications come along with it?

McCabe has 2 more years after this one. But agreed, I think the Leafs would need to aim higher to move Sandin even if Chicago retained 50% on McCabe.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Imo the main problem is the slow drip of picks year over year for rentals rather than bundling 1st + 2nd + 2nd or 2 1sts for a Lindholm/Hagel/McDonagh that can play a big role for a few years. If O’Rielly and Acciari re-sign or if Foligno stayed healthy at his current level of play in Boston and replaced Kerfoot’s money those deals get more palatable, but I’d still have preferred to spend more like we did with Muzzin.

1st + 2 2nds (or equivalent prospects) for an impact piece with term every other year, make 3 picks in the top-90 in the in-between years is more sustainable for a cup window than spending a 1st+ on half-measure rentals every year, especially if you’re also churning out middle of the lineup RFAs that you can turn into high picks like Kapanen when they price themselves out.

I think Chychrun is the wrong guy to target for this with his injury history but just using him as a placeholder name, spending 2 1sts + 2nd-equivalent prospect on him and flipping Sandin for a 1st at the draft would be better for keeping a healthy pipeline longterm than the current strategy while also making us more competitive in the playoffs.

Agreed about the slow drip. Another issue with that is it's rare to see picks coming back in.

I think Dubas' main approach to to re-accumulating picks is the trade down. Results could go either way there. But it was interesting to see the Rangers deal Lundqvist to the Stars before the season to grab an extra 1st. And that 1st was a big help in acquiring Tarasenko.

Dubas has done this once with Kapanen and it was a great move. Would have been nice to see a repeat in the summer with a guy like Kerfoot, who won't be coming back. Coming off a career-high in points and a newfound ability to help on the penalty kill, I think he would have had some value to other teams. Surely another team would have flipped us a 2nd+6th or something similar for him then, which would have helped us this deadline.

I think being able to move on/sell high on certain assets depending on how they fit can be bold but very helpful. I do wish Dubas had done this a few more times.

 

[SprDaVE]

If Boston can get value or anyone to take on Craig Smith, I'd be shocked.

Pretty crazy they'll trade a 1st and a 3rd for Gavrikov though.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Seems like a pretty silly analysis.
Is he assuming that Dubas, who has never made a bad pick, would have selected those same players?

Our prospects can't be judged on yet, because it's still early. Other teams however, we can make a solid judgement on their prospects. They should be very well established by now. If not, it's bust city for them.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Agreed about the slow drip. Another issue with that is it's rare to see picks coming back in.

I think Dubas' main approach to to re-accumulating picks is the trade down. Results could go either way there. But it was interesting to see the Rangers deal Lundqvist to the Stars before the season to grab an extra 1st. And that 1st was a big help in acquiring Tarasenko.

Dubas has done this once with Kapanen and it was a great move. Would have been nice to see a repeat in the summer with a guy like Kerfoot, who won't be coming back. Coming off a career-high in points and a newfound ability to help on the penalty kill, I think he would have had some value to other teams. Surely another team would have flipped us a 2nd+6th or something similar for him then, which would have helped us this deadline.

I think being able to move on/sell high on certain assets depending on how they fit can be bold but very helpful. I do wish Dubas had done this a few more times.

Yeah I think on top of the bigger bundles as trade targets we have room to be more aggressive in offseason sells with the amount of overcooked Marlies depth we have pushing for jobs.

Kerfoot out after his strong season last year and McMann, Steeves, Anderson, Holmberg + some cheap UFAs fighting for the open bottom-6 spots isn’t that big of a risk when we’re guaranteed a top-3 spot in the division for the foreseeable future. Worst case you shore up the position with the picks from the Kerfoot return if all of the Marlies + UFAs disappoint.

It was a shame Mikheyev had such a weird injury spell, he would have been another good option to sell for a pair of 2nds or so, especially after it was clear he wanted to go somewhere with more minutes available and contract demands we were better off avoiding.

 

[Kurtz]

Our prospects can't be judged on yet, because it's still early. Other teams however, we can make a solid judgement on their prospects. They should be very well established by now. If not, it's bust city for them.

Do you know what board you're on? It's literally in the name.

We make early judgement on prospects all the time.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Ekholm would be our best defenseman.

If that was the case, Nashville wouldn't be in the position they are in. I feel like people way overvalue the impact other defensemen have on their team vs what ours have provided us this year.

 

[Stephen]

My answer to that question is another question: what would you be trading Sandin for? If it’s for a similar age, contract term bonafide 4LHD I say trade Sandin away, but who is that and what else needs to go to make it happen? Chychrun? McCabe? Gavrikov? Those last 2 are UFA’s. What are they re-signing for, and how does the money work with everything else? Finally, what are we giving up to get them here?

I’m all for making the team better and Sandin is one of those players that can be improved on. I am just wary of what the improvement is, how to make it happen, and where does it leave from an assets cost and what cap cost implications come along with it?

Yeah, my preference would be to do Sandin ++ and have a Chychrun type D in return. That’s assuming the Yotes just want youth and volume in picks and prospects. Young Top 4 D in, Sandin out and premium paid. Kind of like Vakkakainen and picks to Anaheim and Lindholm to Boston, that concept.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Wondering if it's trade on or before deadline day...

 

[Americanadian]

With Washington having 4/6 of their regular D corps going to UFA this summer I wonder if they’d be a landing spot for Sandin.

Sandin for McMichael+Jensen might be a good base for a deal.

Yeah, my preference would be to do Sandin ++ and have a Chychrun type D in return. That’s assuming the Yotes just want youth and volume in picks and prospects. Young Top 4 D in, Sandin out and premium paid. Kind of like Vakkakainen and picks to Anaheim and Lindholm to Boston, that concept.

I’m curious what you think the ++ would look like here.

 

[dubplatepressure]

If that was the case, Nashville wouldn't be in the position they are in. I feel like people way overvalue the impact other defensemen have on their team vs what ours have provided us this year.

Just a guess - they could also be looking at Josei, Ekholm, and McDonagh, all who can play left side, they could otherwise be thinking they may not need him.

Hampus Lindholm is now playing top-pairing minutes on the best team in the league after being traded away from one of the worst teams in the league last year. Goes both ways.

 

[Americanadian]

I'm actually surprised at how many proposals here send Sandin out to bring in another LHD.

Forget the cap hit, Sandin's development, and his ceiling, I'm also looking at the long term and our LHD situation, both now and the future.

You have Reilly and Sandin currently, with 39 year old Giordano and 33 year old Brodie (in June) who is a UFA in 23-24 with a current Cap Hit of $5M.

How long do we expect Giordano to carry the load that he has, and how long can he realistically do it for?

With our upcoming Cap crunch, with decisions to be made with Matthews, Marner, Nylander and now O'Rielly, is re-signing Brodie even an option anymore?

Who is LHD pipeline on the Marlies? Kral? Rifai? Hoefenmeyer? How close are they to being viable everyday players for us, and are they an improvement on Sandin?

Moving Sandin to bring in another LHD seems like a lateral move at best, and doesn't really answer for me what the plan is long-term to ensure our LHD remains strong. The kid is still young, has a very reasonable contract and still has plenty of room to continue developing. Does he do everything perfect? Nope, but if that is the criteria for any player, I think we are already screwed and it's kind of ridiculous.

LHD is one of the easiest positions to fill in the league via trade or UFA. 90% of the defenseman that are available at any given time are LHD.

 

[TMLAM34]

If Calgary continues to slip and look for a major shakeup, someone like Andersson is someone I’d be willing to trade Sandin++ for.

If New Jersey wasn’t doing so good, I love Siegenthaler. He’d pair with Brodie so well. I’d even be willing to move Sandin in a deal for him.

Forsling is another out of the box option. Would also help Florida free up a little cap space.

These are the type of defenceman id be willing to move Sandin for.

 

[Stephen]

With Washington having 4/6 of their regular D corps going to UFA this summer I wonder if they’d be a landing spot for Sandin.

Sandin for McMichael+Jensen might be a good base for a deal.


I’m curious what you think the ++ would look like here.

Probably a 2024 first and a grab bag of a Roni, future second rounder or something like that. A lot would depend on how the Yotes value Sandin of course. If they don’t like him as a foundation in trade it’s a bit of a moot point, you’d be throwing volume and it would be a non starter. But that’s the direction I would take it.

I just want to consolidate Sandin into something different.

 

[Americanadian]

Probably a 2024 first and a grab bag of a Roni, future second rounder or something like that. A lot would depend on how the Yotes value Sandin of course. If they don’t like him as a foundation in trade it’s a bit of a moot point, you’d be throwing volume and it would be a non starter. But that’s the direction I would take it.

I just want to consolidate Sandin into something different.

I proposed Sandin, 24 1st, Minten and it was not well received on this board. Roni would be more palatable but I don't see Arizona wanting him at this point.