Rumor: Trade Thread XVIII: Brace Yourselves. Friday Is Coming.

[AWall THE CLAW]

Serious contenders?

A quarter of the season playing as good as the top teams in the league? Uhhh, yea. Serious contenders. This place is pessimistic to a fault; you have no idea when you actually have a good thing going.

I'd like to hear your definition of a serious contender, because apparently it can be guaranteed that one of BOS, PIT, STL, CHI, or ANA will win it all.

 

[NYR Viper]

Not necessarily. When you look at what Callahan brings outside of scoring, some of those things are covered already. We have several PKing forwards already. The "glue" that Callahan brings is what is really hard to replace. You're not going to get a born leader in the deal for him. That will be tough to replace, and you just can't predict how the team will react to it.

When TSN first broke the news about Callahan, McKenzie said the Rangers don't fancy themselves real contenders this year. Has that changed? Was it just a smoke screen to justify leaking the possibility of trading Callahan and/or Girardi? While it's possible that removing Callahan right now could torpedo the season, there's also a chance that Stewart could replace a lot of what Callahan brings on the ice in terms of scoring and physicality. If the team can ride the high of winning games, it might allow them to replace one with the other and keep moving forward towards the playoffs.

Everytime we hear Stewart brought up, it's made clear that he would be part of a package for Callahan. I'm very curious to know just how significant that package could be. It's entirely possible that the Blues view Stewart as more of a salary dump than a key part of the deal.

I meant that the rest of the package coming with Stewart would ha ve to be enough value for the differences in what they do.

 

[RangerBoy]

The problem is that the NHL doesn't get that money all up front. It's a 12 year deal. The money will be paid out over that term. They can't exchange money that RBC hasn't given them yet.

The first year is worth $300M and there is a $150M upfront payment spread out over the first 2 years. $375M in 14-15. $337.5M USD. That's with the .90 cent Canadian dollar.

 

[Whiplash27]

From: @JSportsnet
Sent: Feb 6, 2014 11:37a

Quick conversation with Callahan's agent. Say he plans on talking to Sather today, with the hopes of finding some "common ground".

sent via web
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/JSportsnet/status/431466801927438336

If things don't go well today, we may be seeing Callahan's last game as a Ranger tonight.

 

[Trxjw]

I meant that the rest of the package coming with Stewart would ha ve to be enough value for the differences in what they do.

Gotcha.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

A quarter of the season playing as good as the top teams in the league? Uhhh, yea. Serious contenders. This place is pessimistic to a fault; you have no idea when you actually have a good thing going.

I'd like to hear your definition of a serious contender, because apparently it can be guaranteed that one of BOS, PIT, STL, CHI, or ANA will win it all.

So, in essence, you think the chances of winning the Stanley Cup outweigh the risk of hanging on to Callahan and having him walk for nothing?

I dont.

 

[AWall THE CLAW]

So, in essence, you think the chances of winning the Stanley Cup outweigh the risk of hanging on to Callahan and having him walk for nothing?

I dont.

No, I think you sign him, and my post outlined what I strongly believe will be the compromise worked out.

 

[Ola]

You would sign every player to a long-term contract and justify it if the cap going up.

You thought the Vinny Lecavalier contract was a good contract and the Rangers trade for him. Yzerman amnestied him and its the best move he ever made. The Flyers are now stuck with Vinny.

And I think that Lecavalier has been a decent pickup for Philly too. A little over 4m per. He has been good when I've seen them at least. They have other problems.

I think Brass and Stralsy should be locked up for sure. Natrually conditional upon them taking decent deals, but given their numbers I think they would. The longer term the better.

I don't see how we plan to replace Girardi if he is let go. I think the numbers mentioned makes sense and hence I think he should be locked up.

I think Cally is a tough decision. But I would worry more about AAV than term. For me it comes down to the return we can get for him. If it's a crap asset and a late first, I rather keep him.

I've not changed my opinion on that since we played bad.

Also, I know the cap is going up. There is no if in that equation. Even if there is zero growth one year, the PA has a 5% inflator they can invoke. If the cap is 80m, that is 4m more cap space despite zero growth.

Lastly, most other GMs seem to agree with me. All over the place teams has locked up their assets. They have not nickle and dimed and many have skipped the bridge contract BS. In light of what Slats doing, my opinion is a bit radical. Not on light of what many others are doing.

I think many just have a bit of a problem understanding the business side of the game. Signing someone is an investment. A young player might cost more y1-y2, but after that (I) he is cheaper and (II) you don't risk loosin him for nothing. With the cap having gone up a lot, many teams are saving a tremendous amount on players they signed to 4-6 year deals.

Slats just dropped the ball here. He spent a bunch of money on Torts players and always only gave the guys that could play shortest possible term. Like Zucc for example. Didn't you think it was ridiculous to give Zucc the contract he got? Wouldn't have been bad to give him a bit of a longer deal in hindsight ehh? How about Stepan, you think it was a good idea to nickle and dime? These deals will cost us a lot. We could have saved money on others -- easily -- and tied them up long term. Let's see who is right in a couple of years.

 

[Punxrocknyc19*]

If things don't go well today, we may be seeing Callahan's last game as a Ranger tonight.

i really doubt that. knowing Sather he will wait till the March deadline and risk Callahan get hurt in the olympics. will Sather rush to make a deal, considering that he could get more towards the March 5 deadline than now for Callahan??? will Sather take less now, to not risk him getting hurt in the olympics???

 

[RangerBoy]

A quarter of the season playing as good as the top teams in the league? Uhhh, yea. Serious contenders. This place is pessimistic to a fault; you have no idea when you actually have a good thing going.

I'd like to hear your definition of a serious contender, because apparently it can be guaranteed that one of BOS, PIT, STL, CHI, or ANA will win it all.

I guess you subscribe to theory of anything can happen. I am being realistic. You're basing it on a quarter of a season. You want to keep Callahan for the next six seasons because they're "serious contenders" this season. The Rangers are in same group with about 10-12 other teams which have a chance of not being a playoff team and winning 1 round in the playtoffs. For all of the Rangers good play since late December,they're a 2-3-4 game losing streak from not being a playoff spot. The Rangers aren't running table until April. The schedule gets harder in March.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

i really doubt that. knowing Sather he will wait till the March deadline and risk Callahan get hurt in the olympics. will Sather rush to make a deal, considering that he could get more towards the March 5 deadline than now for Callahan??? will Sather take less now, to not risk him getting hurt in the olympics???

I actually think its the opposite. I think other GMs may be interested, but want to wait to make sure Cally returns from the Olympics healthy. I know I would.

 

[GAGLine]

This is just even more reason to hedge. You can hedge forward to any date, you just buy or sell the currency now so that you get the opposite currency impact later.

For example, if the NHL sold an equivalent amount of Canadian dollars and bought USD forward at the time of the deal, to settle at different times over the next 12 years, on each of the settlement dates they would receive an equal amount of money to the loss that they're incurring. If the amount of Canadian dollars they're receiving next year has devalued by $5m for example, they made the opposite transaction (buying US dollars for an equivalent amount) at the time of the deal, so they would lose $5m on the deal and gain $5m on the trade they placed. No currency impact.

Source: I work for a company that deals in many currencies, and placing trades like this to minimize currency impact is part of my job.

I don't work in currencies, so I won't pretend to understand it all, but I would think this scenario is complicated by the fact that the NHL isn't a single company, but rather 31 companies (30 teams + NHL).

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I don't work in currencies, so I won't pretend to understand it all, but I would think this scenario is complicated by the fact that the NHL isn't a single company, but rather 31 companies (30 teams + NHL).

The Rogers contract is with the NHL. It's a single contract. It could be hedged by the NHL on behalf of the member companies.

EDIT: As for the individual teams' earnings, their respective TV deals, etc. could be hedged and they could even buy forward currency contracts to cover a baseline of ticket and merchandise sales based on projections (off of historical performance, season ticket subscriptions, etc.), but I doubt that's an issue for most of them since most of them earn their revenues and pay their costs in the same currency. (Except for maybe the Canadian teams with player contracts?) It's the Rogers deal that's the big issue.

 

[RangerBoy]

McKenzie made the Rangers don't view themselves as Cup contenders comment last Tuesday. The Rangers have beaten the hapless Islanders twice,Colorado and they should kick the tar out Edmonton tonight. Does that make them Cup contenders?

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

And I think that Lecavalier has been a decent pickup for Philly too. A little over 4m per. He has been good when I've seen them at least. They have other problems.

I think Brass and Stralsy should be locked up for sure. Natrually conditional upon them taking decent deals, but given their numbers I think they would. The longer term the better.

I don't see how we plan to replace Girardi if he is let go. I think the numbers mentioned makes sense and hence I think he should be locked up.

I think Cally is a tough decision. But I would worry more about AAV than term. For me it comes down to the return we can get for him. If it's a crap asset and a late first, I rather keep him.

I've not changed my opinion on that since we played bad.

Also, I know the cap is going up. There is no if in that equation. Even if there is zero growth one year, the PA has a 5% inflator they can invoke. If the cap is 80m, that is 4m more cap space despite zero growth.

Lastly, most other GMs seem to agree with me. All over the place teams has locked up their assets. They have not nickle and dimed and many have skipped the bridge contract BS. In light of what Slats doing, my opinion is a bit radical. Not on light of what many others are doing.

I think many just have a bit of a problem understanding the business side of the game. Signing someone is an investment. A young player might cost more y1-y2, but after that (I) he is cheaper and (II) you don't risk loosin him for nothing. With the cap having gone up a lot, many teams are saving a tremendous amount on players they signed to 4-6 year deals.

Slats just dropped the ball here. He spent a bunch of money on Torts players and always only gave the guys that could play shortest possible term. Like Zucc for example. Didn't you think it was ridiculous to give Zucc the contract he got? Wouldn't have been bad to give him a bit of a longer deal in hindsight ehh? How about Stepan, you think it was a good idea to nickle and dime? These deals will cost us a lot. We could have saved money on others -- easily -- and tied them up long term. Let's see who is right in a couple of years.

Ola, simply put, you are too wrapped up in cap implications and percentages. Of course that plays a role, but player evaluation should come first and foremost.

And, simply put, investing 6 or 7 years in a player like Ryan Callahan makes little sense -- and that still stands even if there wasnt a cap.

 

[GAGLine]

Lastly, most other GMs seem to agree with me. All over the place teams has locked up their assets. They have not nickle and dimed and many have skipped the bridge contract BS. In light of what Slats doing, my opinion is a bit radical. Not on light of what many others are doing.

I think many just have a bit of a problem understanding the business side of the game. Signing someone is an investment. A young player might cost more y1-y2, but after that (I) he is cheaper and (II) you don't risk loosin him for nothing. With the cap having gone up a lot, many teams are saving a tremendous amount on players they signed to 4-6 year deals.

Slats just dropped the ball here. He spent a bunch of money on Torts players and always only gave the guys that could play shortest possible term. Like Zucc for example. Didn't you think it was ridiculous to give Zucc the contract he got? Wouldn't have been bad to give him a bit of a longer deal in hindsight ehh? How about Stepan, you think it was a good idea to nickle and dime? These deals will cost us a lot. We could have saved money on others -- easily -- and tied them up long term. Let's see who is right in a couple of years.

Locking up a young player to a longer term deal is one thing. I'm all for giving Kreider a 6 year deal. Pay him more now so you can pay him less later.

But Callahan isn't a young player. The number of injuries he has sustained in recent years suggests that he won't be an effective player into his mid 30s. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's why no matter what we do, it's a gamble. Give a player a short term contract and he breaks out, now you gotta pay him more. Give a player a long term contract and he regresses, now it's an albatross.

For every Tavares there is a Tyler Myers. Yes, the cap will go up, but that doesn't mean we can afford to waste cap space.

 

[Trxjw]

McKenzie made the Rangers don't view themselves as Cup contenders comment last Tuesday. The Rangers have beaten the hapless Islanders twice,Colorado and they should kick the tar out Edmonton tonight. Does that make them Cup contenders?

According to a lot of people, the recent string of defeating mediocre teams makes them cup contenders. Not sure I understand the logic there.

 

[Trxjw]

Again, when it comes to advocating long term deals, it's always the players who have succeeded that come up. Leino, DiPietro, Clarkson, Myers, Stafford, Bickell, etc, etc. Nobody is championing long-term signings when it comes to talking about these players.

The cap might go up, but if a player doesn't live up to expectations, you're ALWAYS going to be paying a player more than he's worth. The fact that he represents a smaller portion of the cap is irrelevant.

 

[NYR Viper]

Renaud Lavoie ‏@LavoieRenaud 3m
Islanders are trying hard to trade Thomas Vanek before the Olympic trade deadline (3pm Friday)

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 14m
Interesting tweets from @AJonSports regarding possible deal between LA and EDM involving Gagner and Clifford. Also hearing this possible.

Sounds like there will be movement

 

[Vitto79]

According to a lot of people, the recent string of defeating mediocre teams makes them cup contenders. Not sure I understand the logic there.

I know fans are all about saying they stink and they wont win but how do some fans not realize in the East its the Pens and Bruins and after that the Rangers could beat anyone. Why not TRY and get to the Pens and Bruins and see if Nash and Lundqvist can earn their pay cheques?

Sather wont give up the season. IF he can sign Cally and Girardi at fair deals awesome and if not he will deal them for players that can help now and some picks/prospects.

Not sure why everyone would be shocked to see Boyle, Moore, Stralman stay and then if they lose them to Free Agency.

Everyone here makes it sound like trying to win is a terrible thing.

 

[Vidic15*]

I actually think its the opposite. I think other GMs may be interested, but want to wait to make sure Cally returns from the Olympics healthy. I know I would.

Agreed. Just cross your fingers and hope he leaves healthy.

 

[ArPanet]

We should talk portion of cap. 5 players 33m? Under a 80m cap that is like paying 5 guys 16m in 05' or 3.2m per; 22m when the cap was 55m or 4.7m on avg.

33m for 5 guys is not much when Staal becomes an UFA. I am on the phone with a 3 day old in my lap, but we paid our 5 most expensive guys lots more when we had Drury, Gomez, Redden an co and the cap was in the 50s...

And what a team that was!

 

[GAGLine]

And what a team that was!

Exactly. If we want to actually win, we need to maximize the value of our contracts.

 

[BBKers]

Callahan & Miller for Kessler and a pick
Would we do it?
Sure Ole Johnnycakes would

We could in theory also then use our substantial remaining cap space to facilitate a few trades this deadline - picking up an asset or two in the process
I believe certain GMs might try to use this loophole in this CBA inhibited special deadline & season

2013/2014

FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($0.800m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Carl Hagelin ($2.250m)
Benoit Pouliot ($1.300m) / Derick Brassard ($3.200m) / Mats Zuccarello ($1.150m)
Brian Boyle ($1.700m) / Dominic Moore ($1.000m) / Daniel Carcillo ($0.825m)
Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($3.325m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Anton Stralman ($1.700m)
John Moore ($0.840m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Justin Falk ($0.975m)

GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)

BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)

BURIED
Arron Asham ($0.075m)
Darroll Powe ($0.142m)
------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000
BONUSES: $650,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $4,343,305 Deadline space around $7M

Also this leaves two holes for us to fill next year - with a bit of space to do so?

2014/2015

FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($2.700m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
??? 2nd/3rd line LW??? / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Jesper Fast ($0.805m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / Derick Brassard ($3.700m) / Mats Zuccarello ($3.500m)
Brian Boyle ($2.500m) / Oscar Lindberg ($0.675m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Daniel Carcillo ($1.200m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.650m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / ??? Offensive D ???
John Moore ($1.600m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Conor Allen or Dylan McIlraith ($0.925m)

GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)

BUYOUTS
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
------

SALARY CAP: $71,100,000
CAP PAYROLL: $63,650,833
BONUSES: $1,030,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $7,449,167

 

[Trxjw]

I know fans are all about saying they stink and they wont win but how do some fans not realize in the East its the Pens and Bruins and after that the Rangers could beat anyone. Why not TRY and get to the Pens and Bruins and see if Nash and Lundqvist can earn their pay cheques?

Sather wont give up the season. IF he can sign Cally and Girardi at fair deals awesome and if not he will deal them for players that can help now and some picks/prospects.

Not sure why everyone would be shocked to see Boyle, Moore, Stralman stay and then if they lose them to Free Agency.

Everyone here makes it sound like trying to win is a terrible thing.

I'm not sure why people think that because I don't consider this team a cup contender I automatically want this team to lose. I'm simply against not taking the future into consideration just so we can have an extremely unlikely chance at post-season success. Meaning holding onto Callahan as an "own rental" is a foolish idea. I have no problem moving Callahan or Girardi for pieces that could help now, as well as moving forward. In fact, that would be my preference should either of them be traded. A piece that can help now, and a piece that can help in the future.

I don't think this team could beat the Pens, Bruins or Lightning in a 7 game series. We'll likely have to go through at least one of them to get beyond the second round.