Rumor: Trade Thread XVIII: Brace Yourselves. Friday Is Coming.

[Ola]

I blame Cally's demands on David Clarkson.

Players have been paid like this for years. I understand that some kids on a message board don't figure it out, but its troublesome when Slats don't. When Slats instead of asking for long contracts fights them with tooths and nails.

Scott Hartnell signed for six years and 4m per in 07/08. The cap was 50.3m. His portion of the cap was 4.2m / 50.3 = 0,0835. With a 71m cap that is 5,95m per.

At that point, Scott Hartnell had:

-scored 25 goals once

-a career year with 48 pts

-scored more than 40 pts two times in 6 years in the NHL

Philly gave him six years and a 0,0835 portion of their cap which is compareable to just under 6m this off-season. It was a lot when he signed the contract, sure. But the year after the cap was 56.7m. The contract only had a 0,074 portion of their cap, which is compare able not to 5.95m per but 5.2m per with a 71m cap. A 700k "diffrence". When the contract went out the porition of the cap was 0.06 which is compare to 4m this off-season.

There are all kind of contracts like this. Much more extreme examples than Hartnell who's contract in comparision is pretty modest. And like who remembers that like Marty Straka had a 0.0795 porition of our cap in 05'? That is equal to 5.6m per next season.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

Callahan played sooo well on Tuesday. It's like the Ranger's and Callahan came to a deal but just haven't signed yet. Like How Lundqvist miraculously improved after his deal? Just an observation.

You kidding? Lundqvist was garbage well after his deal was signed. Lundqvist has been FAR better the past 10 or so games, but even 7 or so games after Lundqvist's deal he was playing horrid hockey. I just hope his great game will up his trade value a bit more.

 

[RangerBoy]

Steve Sommers? That guy is more comedian than sports host. Francesa told a story last week about how Sommers was doing a show late one night recently and got locked out of the building smoking a cigarette.

I heard Barry Melrose with Michael Kay yesterday. The Rangers and Callahan should compromise. Callahan has already compromised to 7 years. Callahan is eligible to get 8 from the Rangers. Lundqvist got 7. Phaneuf got 7. The Rangers don't want to go past 5. Callahan will get 7 as a free agent. Brown got 8 from LA. Lundqvist compromised to 7. Why should Callahan compromise to 6? There is always some ego involved in this stuff.

On NHL Live this afternoon, Dave Maloney asked Bob McKenzie about the status of Ryan Callahan and Dan Girardi.

On Ryan Callahan, “It doesn’t seem that they are close but I do know that Steve Bartlett, the agent for Ryan Callahan, touched base with the Rangers today but I wouldn’t suggest that it was substantive contract negotiations. Right now the two sides seem far apart. The sense is that Ryan Callahan is looking for a seven-year deal of upwards of $6.5 million per year, somewhere between $6.5 and $7 million per year. I think the New York Rangers are prepared to give him $6 million and maybe a bit more than $6 but maybe on a lesser term. We will see how this plays out. I know the Rangers have been kind of working on the deadline of trying to solve this before the Olympic break.”

On Dan Girardi, “similar kind of situation. There is a little bit more optimism that they will get a deal done with him and there has been some dialogue over the last 24-48 hours on Girardi’s contract but I don’t think it’s necessarily imminent either.”


Pierre LeBrun said on TSN 1050′s Game Night with Mike Hogan, that he spoke with a member of the Rangers last night who said that this is the best the Rangers have played in the past few years but that he knows that everything surrounding the team right now is part of the business side of things.

LeBrun said, “I talked to one player on the Rangers who said that he just couldn’t believe, this was the best he remembers this team playing in a couple of years and that it’s really too bad that this is all happening but he understands that it’s a business.”

When asked what the Rangers would do with Callahan and Girardi, LeBrun said, “If I had to predict I think they are willing to bite the bullet on one but not both. I checked with Callahan’s agent today so it was nothing close. It just seems to me that if the Rangers want 5 years and Callahan wants 7 isn’t there a number in between? The salary is a sticking point too. The Rangers aren’t prepared to go above $6.5. This one has been split for me. I totally understand why the Rangers, don’t want to give 7 years to guy who eats pucks for a living. 7 years is a long time and that body may get older sooner. If you are Cally and have seen the Rangers overspend, how does it make you feel to get your pay day and it’s not happening. I would say that of the two Girardi has a better chance of getting signed.”

http://snyrangersblog.com/2013-14/2...ob-mckenzie-on-ryan-callahan-and-dan-girardi/

I am sure that player has done business recently or has a contract coming up in the summer. Business.

The Rangers signing both of them for at least $12M will give the Rangers $33M in five players with many unsigned players this and next summer. The Canadian dollar picked the worst time to begin its decline. The Rangers had the least amount of the cap invested in D during 10-11. 22% of the cap was invested on D. $59.4M. Paying McDonagh. Pay Girardi. Pay Staal in the future. There isn't a bottomless pit of money.

 

[Ola]

RB- The CDN had dropped a lot by NHLs prediction on next years cap. Why do you believe that some of that isn't in the NHLs prediction already?

The Can TV money is coming into play 15/16. We could see a 10+m bump. Washy heard 80m even. The CDN could very well level out and even recover some 6-12 month from now.

 

[Ola]

We should talk portion of cap. 5 players 33m? Under a 80m cap that is like paying 5 guys 16m in 05' or 3.2m per; 22m when the cap was 55m or 4.7m on avg.

33m for 5 guys is not much when Staal becomes an UFA. I am on the phone with a 3 day old in my lap, but we paid our 5 most expensive guys lots more when we had Drury, Gomez, Redden an co and the cap was in the 50s...

 

[Ghost of jas]

Compromise? The Ranger offer to Callahan is already too much. I'm not even fond of going 5 years. (Same goes for Girardi on length, although it's not the concern that it is with Callahan.). I am more than prepared to move both for assets which should be a quality young player and a #1 for each.

 

[donpaulo]

I caught this link about Stewart on another site

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/1/29/5359856/okay-maybe-you-can-start-worrying-about-stewart-now

I see the logic in biting the bullet with Callahan and letting him play out the season. It would be magical to get a run to the finals with the captain still onboard.

Lets just hope Slats locks up Daniel Girardi and can then focus on what to do about Cally.

I still think he is the perfect fit either in Buffalo or Florida as a UFA with the terms and cap hit he wants

 

[RangerBoy]

RB- The CDN had dropped a lot by NHLs prediction on next years cap. Why do you believe that some of that isn't in the NHLs prediction already?

The Can TV money is coming into play 15/16. We could see a 10+m bump. Washy heard 80m even. The CDN could very well level out and even recover some 6-12 month from now.

The NHL release the $71.1M cap projection on December 9.

The NHL is now forecasting the financial markets? The CDN closed at 94 cents on the 9th.

It closed at 90 yesterday. Its been at the 89 and 90 cents level for the last 2 weeks. It was at 96 cents at the start of the NHL season.

Some projections have the Canadian dollar ending up between 86 to 88 cents by the end of this year. Bottoming out at 85 to 86 cents.

The Rogers deal is in Canadian dollars for $5.2B. $4.9B US. It was announced on November 26 with the dollar being .9498. The same TV deal is worth $4.7B US today.

No one ever said the cap is never going up. It will go up but with the Canadian TV deal in Canadian funds it will be less than the NHL projected. The same thing with the Canadian revenue from ticket sales.

Its amazing that Elliotte Friedman and Renaud Lavoie discuss the Canadian dollar hurting the cap but you know more than them from Sweden.

 

[*Bob Richards*]

"The Rangers aren't prepared to go above 6.5".

Hell, I'm not prepared to go above 5.5 let alone that. Yuck.

 

[RangerBoy]

We should talk portion of cap. 5 players 33m? Under a 80m cap that is like paying 5 guys 16m in 05' or 3.2m per; 22m when the cap was 55m or 4.7m on avg.

33m for 5 guys is not much when Staal becomes an UFA. I am on the phone with a 3 day old in my lap, but we paid our 5 most expensive guys lots more when we had Drury, Gomez, Redden an co and the cap was in the 50s...

You would sign every player to a long-term contract and justify it if the cap going up.

You thought the Vinny Lecavalier contract was a good contract and the Rangers trade for him. Yzerman amnestied him and its the best move he ever made. The Flyers are now stuck with Vinny.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

"The Rangers aren't prepared to go above 6.5".

Hell, I'm not prepared to go above 5.5 let alone that. Yuck.

But the cap is going up into the trillions, we can make a run this season! YOLO!

 

[RangerBoy]

Compromise? The Ranger offer to Callahan is already too much. I'm not even fond of going 5 years. (Same goes for Girardi on length, although it's not the concern that it is with Csllahan.). I am more than prepared to move both for assets which should be a quality young player and a #1 for each.

The proper move is trading them but its not the accepted move by a major portion of the fan base. Callahan has one good game and he is worth $47M. Its a joke. Even the media is hoping the Rangers give him the money because Callahan is a good guy. A majority of the hockey are good guys. All of them are great guys. Not like in the other sports. Management is scared because of the fan backlash.

 

[The Gloaming]

"The Rangers aren't prepared to go above 6.5".

Hell, I'm not prepared to go above 5.5 let alone that. Yuck.

I wouldn't even want 5x5 for him. What they offered was already too much.

 

[Boom Boom Geoffrion*]

I blame Cally's demands on David Clarkson.

I blame Chris Drury.

 

[Blueblood9]

The proper move is trading them but its not the accepted move by a major portion of the fan base. Callahan has one good game and he is worth $47M. Its a joke. Even the media is hoping the Rangers give him the money because Callahan is a good guy. A majority of the hockey are good guys. All of them are great guys. Not like in the other sports. Management is scared because of the fan backlash.

I completly agree with this statement.

If you know he is not going to sign the deal you want then trade him and recoup assets. Its basic asset management.

Im sorry to say that at this point i dont care. I just want to see the rangers perform and if that means keeping or trading him it doesnt matter. As the cliche goes its about the name in front of the jersey and not the one in the back.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

Seems like RB is getting frustrated with Ola and I don't blame him. Yes Ola looking at current AND potential cap % is important but that's just about the only thing you are correct about. For some reason you think Callahan should be taking up a bit more cap% AND years than he should be. Ryan Callahan is not an all star or near all star talent like Nash is. Callahan is currently our 3rd line RW and is frequently injured at an age where speed (one of his primary assets) is going to start to fall off. He is not worth the risk, he is not worth the cap%.

7 years 5.5 mil. 3 or 4 years from now his play will start to fall off and we will curse this contract but I'd do it. Because that is actually the % cap he is worth.


I'd also do 6 x 6

or 5 x 6.25

Guy is not even close to being a 30g scorer right now. He's in the range of 35-45 points every year going forward. That kind of production does not warrant 7 x 7+

Also your hartnell comparison is horrible. Hartnell signed that contract in 2007 when he was I think 26 years old with some potential growth still left. He went on to score 30 goals in multiple seasons because he had room for growth. Callahan on the other hand has shown what he was capable of which was a career best 29G 54 pt. his scoring and play has dropped off since.

26 yo Hartnell gets 6 years. Had room to improve
29 yo Callahan wants 7. Has already declined in play

 

[eco's bones]

I blame Cally's demands on David Clarkson.

Be better to blame the Maple Leafs if you're blaming anyone. You can blame New Jersey for Clowe as well and for the Kovalchuk deal. You can blame the Flyers for making that absurd offer to Shea Weber. The Rangers for signing Richards to another Kovalchuk like deal. The Red Wings for figuring out how to get around the cap by frontloading. We can go on and on with examples. It's the teams constantly trying to get one up on each other.

The proper way for Sather to go about this is to draw a line in the sand well before the event of signing the player. These are the absolute limits.

I'm not out to get rid of Callahan but I would not give him a 7 year deal. His history of injury argues against that. I would not want to give Girardi 7 years either but I might considering the cap hit. He does not have the injury history and there is a difference between a 1st pair right D and a second or third line RW (even if the RW is the captain of the team). IMO if you're saving one of them Girardi should be the guy. $'s are the second issue.

 

[Mikos87]

The CDN teams account for 1/3 of all HRR. The Loonie going down .90 cents does sting, but not as much as what people are worried about. The TV deal is $4.9B USD, $5.2B CDN.

Even though teams account for their hockey ops under one currency (USD), a lowered CDN is going to have an impact on the cap.... just not in the millions as some are prognosticating.

Might make next years cap go from 71.2 to 70.4. There isn't going to be a 4% drop in the cap because the dollar value does down. Cap is going to go up 5-9% per annum not matter what. The CDN going down, and staying down, means the cap growth slows down if all CDN teams account with the CDN (which they don't). If tickets are only going to bring you .90c on the dollar, you just raise the prices to offset the loss. Canadians will still show up to watch the Jets and Oilers.

This means that 5-9% yr over yr growth, will slow down by a maximum of 1.2-1.8% worst case scenario.

And that's not accounting for expansion, world cup of hockey, and the fact that the NBC deal will need to be re-upped, and that the Rogers deal basically pays 2 expansion teams worth of money (not counting any ticket or ancillary sales), every year.

Hockey is in fine financial standing. This isn't basketball or baseball where the bottom half teams can barely compete in their respective leagues.

This is what a hard cap does.

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

From where I sit, 6M x 5 is already too much. If they compromise at 6.3-5M x 6 it would be a mistake.

 

[slipknottin]

Why do people keep repeating this "cally is a third line RW" thing?

He's third on the team in ice time among forwards. He averages more time a game than Nash.

 

[NernieBichols]

If they "settle in the middle" as some people suggests, im probably going to be sick. The reason for that is simple.

This trick has been in existence for as long as humans have been bartering, and the various stores around the globe use it all the time.

First, massively inflate the price of something. Then cut that inflated price by "putting it on a sale". Idiots (read : customers) walk away feeling they've gotten a real bargain. The store is making money hand over fist because the sale wasnt really a sale at all.

Then again, even a Cally at 5 mill per year doesnt sit well with me.. not for the contract length. Sure, it would be great for the next year or two (barring any nasty injuries).. but after that, the contract will likely start to suck more and more.

But of course, the answer to everything is : hey, the cap is going up

Its funny. As if we didn't know this already, on our own, but Macy's was recently just outed as operating under those methods. Just funny that some of these big institutions are getting blown on, and all recently.

Regarding the cap, it would be pretty ignorant and in a fire-able offense if you didn't run your team with the knowledge the cap is going up. I don't know what it ends up at, but its pretty clear, its going up.

Sounds like a sarcastically trendy thing to say around here if you don't want to pay market rate.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Gaborik trade came completely out of left field. I remember when Gord Miller announced he was dealt pending him waiving his NTC and was completely blindsided.

I think many of us here expected him to be traded in the summer because of the cap issues.

I am pretty sure that most people knew it was coming. I mentioned Columbus a couple of weeks before the deal, although I thought they would get Boll.

I caught this link about Stewart on another site

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/1/29/5359856/okay-maybe-you-can-start-worrying-about-stewart-now

I see the logic in biting the bullet with Callahan and letting him play out the season. It would be magical to get a run to the finals with the captain still onboard.

Lets just hope Slats locks up Daniel Girardi and can then focus on what to do about Cally.

I still think he is the perfect fit either in Buffalo or Florida as a UFA with the terms and cap hit he wants

Take your heart out of it. We are all fans. What is the correct business decision? Callahan is out for his high contract. That's a business decision.

"The Rangers aren't prepared to go above 6.5".

Hell, I'm not prepared to go above 5.5 let alone that. Yuck.

I agree.

The proper move is trading them but its not the accepted move by a major portion of the fan base. Callahan has one good game and he is worth $47M. Its a joke. Even the media is hoping the Rangers give him the money because Callahan is a good guy. A majority of the hockey are good guys. All of them are great guys. Not like in the other sports. Management is scared because of the fan backlash.

100% agree. Whoever signs him for 7 years is going to regret it. People need to use their heads, not their hearts. This isn't Toews or Kane.

From where I sit, 6M x 5 is already too much. If they compromise at 6.3-5M x 6 it would be a mistake.

Exactly where I'm at.

 

[Dr. Ogrodnick]

Why do people keep repeating this "cally is a third line RW" thing?

He's third on the team in ice time among forwards. He averages more time a game than Nash.

Because he's the 3rd most important right wing on the team today?

 

[TheRedressor]

Why do people keep repeating this "cally is a third line RW" thing?

He's third on the team in ice time among forwards. He averages more time a game than Nash.

His minutes come at EV and on the PK....you cannot justify paying a player 6 million a season to kill penalties. If I knew the Rangers would give Callahan a crazy contract like this then I would have said keep Prust for 4 million less and get less offense.

Bottom line is there are 7 forwards on 2 PP units and Callahan isn't one of them. Captain or not, you cannot pay him that kind of money.

 

[Raspewtin]

The proper move is trading them but its not the accepted move by a major portion of the fan base. Callahan has one good game and he is worth $47M. Its a joke. Even the media is hoping the Rangers give him the money because Callahan is a good guy. A majority of the hockey are good guys. All of them are great guys. Not like in the other sports. Management is scared because of the fan backlash.

This whole ****ing situation is a joke. I don't see how anybody, anyone at all can justify giving Callahan the money he wants, let alone because he's a good guy.

There would be backlash from fans that don't have one shred of knowledge about the business side of sports. Every favorite player should be signed no matter what the cost. It's the same people that would give Prust 2.5 mill. Insane. He's a ****ing 4th line grinder.