Speculation: Trade Speculation Part V

[Volodya Krutov]

But still there's definitely a lack of finish, a lack of pure talent with our forwards. No one denies this, I believe.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Everyone wants to string the forwards up by their balls, but the defense/goaltending combination (especially last night) has predominantly been the biggest problem. I agree with FMASC in that the forwards are doing everything but finishing. Hell, Kovy probably has as many posts as he has goals this season.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I know many of you will remain unconvinced, but just munch on this for a second:

During the Devils' 18 game malaise, they've score 41 goals (2.28 GPG) and ceded 60 goals (3.33 GPG). The Devils, meanwhile, have outshot their opposition 28.6 SPG - 24.5 SPG.

The Devils' shooting percentage during this time span is 8.0%, while our save percentage is 86.4%.

How can anyone look at those numbers and assume the first problem is the forward unit? We've been outshooting opponents by 4 shots per game, albeit not converting as much as we would like, but meanwhile our goaltending is stopping 86.4% of shots. That's horrendous goaltending.

If we get league average 91% goaltending over this stretch, we have a positive goal differential (41-40).

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

The Devils have issues to remedy at forward, no doubt. I don't disagree.

A lot of you are unduly obsessed with what we have "on paper." Carter and Bernier have played like legitimate NHL third liners this year. Time to update your perception of them.

Carter and Bernier are playing very solid hockey, I can't say otherwise... but if we're leaning on Carter and Bernier's solid play to rack up 2 pts, we're in more trouble then I thought.

Our supposed #1 center is now centering our 3rd line, our 1st line center is some kid we picked up for a 5th round pick, our #1 LW'er is a player we had last year who played close to 90% of his games on our 3rd line and our 3rd line was our 4th line last year.

The loss of Sykora and Parise has crippled our depth and with just those two players being removed from our lineup, that equals to 52 goals and 113 pts combined that we've lost and replaced that production with Tom Kostopoulos/Bobby Butler and Andrei Lokthionov.

That problem is on Lou and no one else for not "replacing" the lost production both of those players provided for our team last year.

 

[CerebralGenesis]

I know many of you will remain unconvinced, but just munch on this for a second:

During the Devils' 18 game malaise, they've score 41 goals (2.28 GPG) and ceded 60 goals (3.33 GPG). The Devils, meanwhile, have outshot their opposition 28.6 SPG - 24.5 SPG.

The Devils' shooting percentage during this time span is 8.0%, while our save percentage is 86.4%.

How can anyone look at those numbers and assume the first problem is the forward unit? We've been outshooting opponents by 4 shots per game, albeit not converting as much as we would like, but meanwhile our goaltending is stopping 86.4% of shots. That's horrendous goaltending.

If we get league average 91% goaltending over this stretch, we have a positive goal differential (41-40).

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Our goaltending % is bad because we had major defensive breakdowns too. He was unable to steal even 1 game for us in more than a month, and that's definitely an issue, but the last 4 or 5 losses iirc, Moose was average IMO.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Our goaltending % is bad because we had major defensive breakdowns too. He was unable to steal even 1 game for us in more than a month, and that's definitely an issue, but the last 4 or 5 losses iirc, Moose was average IMO.

Defensive breakdowns will always happen. I really don't think the Devils have had more than their opponents. The best a defense can do is limit the amount of time the opposition spends in their end.

Moose hasn't just let in soft goals, but has made bad decisions. Several against the Jets (Kane's goal, Byfuglien's rush). Last night on the PK. He has been terrible.

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

I know many of you will remain unconvinced, but just munch on this for a second:

During the Devils' 18 game malaise, they've score 41 goals (2.28 GPG) and ceded 60 goals (3.33 GPG). The Devils, meanwhile, have outshot their opposition 28.6 SPG - 24.5 SPG.

The Devils' shooting percentage during this time span is 8.0%, while our save percentage is 86.4%.

How can anyone look at those numbers and assume the first problem is the forward unit? We've been outshooting opponents by 4 shots per game, albeit not converting as much as we would like, but meanwhile our goaltending is stopping 86.4% of shots. That's horrendous goaltending.

If we get league average 91% goaltending over this stretch, we have a positive goal differential (41-40).

It's pretty evident that Moose crapped the bed more then once in the last month or so that Marty's been injured but what were we really expecting out of a career backup who's over the age of 40 and has to adapt to the life of a NHL starter on a really condensed schedule.

Bottom line is that we had problems generating offense from the get-go and when your goalie let's in a couple of stinkers per game, it cuts the legs of our entire team. The fact that we're shooting more then the other team doesn't mean a whole lot if the shots we're taking aren't legit scoring chances.

Teams will let you shoot from the halfboards all day long if they want and if you manage to shoot 40 or 50 times in a game, it won't matter cause I don't care how often you shoot, it won't go past the netminder once if you don't have shots coming from the slot.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

obviously the goaltending was the major reason for our terrible streak, but our forward core isnt strong enough to compete with true contenders (Pitt, boston). so bc we got bad goaltending, our forwards arent bad? thats stupid. we've had both horrendous goaltending and a lack of production from forwards. one issue will be solved when marty returns, one wont. thats why i have a beef with the forward core.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Defensive breakdowns will always happen. I really don't think the Devils have had more than their opponents. The best a defense can do is limit the amount of time the opposition spends in their end.

Moose hasn't just let in soft goals, but has made bad decisions. Several against the Jets (Kane's goal, Byfuglien's rush). Last night on the PK. He has been terrible.

There's a difference between saying : Moose let in some pretty bad goals and : Moose is the reason why we are losing.

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

I'm still scratching my head to this day as to why Sykora wasn't brought back when we've claimed turds like Kostopoulos and Butler off of waivers. Sykora would've made about the same salary and we already know that he can pad the stat sheet in terms of goals, where as the two other options probably have more speed but can't score at the NHL level.

Losing Sykora and Parise only to replace them with AHL'ers while having a surplus of NHL caliber d-men is something I just don't understand. I'm not saying that it's easy to acquire solid forwards but when you're aware of the situation after the 2nd week of july, you don't wait until mid march to ****ing react.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

It's pretty evident that Moose crapped the bed more then once in the last month or so that Marty's been injured but what were we really expecting out of a career backup who's over the age of 40 and has to adapt to the life of a NHL starter on a really condensed schedule.

Bottom line is that we had problems generating offense from the get-go and when your goalie let's in a couple of stinkers per game, it cuts the legs of our entire team. The fact that we're shooting more then the other team doesn't mean a whole lot if the shots we're taking aren't legit scoring chances.

Teams will let you shoot from the halfboards all day long if they want and if you manage to shoot 40 or 50 times in a game, it won't matter cause I don't care how often you shoot, it won't go past the netminder once if you don't have shots coming from the slot.

Except the Devils aren't shooting from the half boards. They're getting good chances. Teams tend to optimize the shots they take, which is why shots for and against is a good measure of a team's ability.

And Moose has done more than crapped the bed a couple times. An 86.4% save percentage is horrible, ECHL caliber. He's obviously not as bad as the last 18 games have lead us to believe, but if you want explanation #1 for why we're losing, it's him.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I think those numbers tell the true story. Everybody wants to jump on the bandwagon about our forward group, because it's the easy thing to do after losing a couple of high profile names in the offseason. But this team is giving up over 3 goals per game. That's not Devils hockey. This team's identity is built on the idea that we can win games 2-1 or 1-0 if necessary. That's not happening right now. Some of it is on the D and some if it is on goaltender. And yes, I understand that the identity has shifted slightly with PDB instituting the strong forechecking system, but keeping opponents off the score sheet is still the foundation.

Our forwards might not be worldbeaters, but they are good enough if we keep the puck out of our own net. Giving up the first goal every game has put too much pressure on the O.

The biggest blame still lies with the players on the ice.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

The patient is still alive, but if we miss the playoffs Moose may not have killed our chances himself, but he certainly was an accomplice. This 13 games span in the shortened season equates to a 22 game span in a normal season with 2 regulation wins.

Ouch man.

I hope Marty is well rested and hits the ice in full on GOD MODE.

 

[MartyOwns]

Shooting percentage is driven by luck.

ah yes, the ridiculous defining of 'luck'... my favorite argument ever

 

[day1devilsfan]

Anybody think Lou takes a shot on Mike Komisarek?

 

[Cowbell232]

Shooting percentage is driven by luck.

Luck is but a tiny factor.

The more I've heard these guys harp on advanced metrics, the more clear it becomes they are mostly correct.

Shooters nearly always regress back up or down to their means over the season. A good shooter is a good shooter, a bad one is bad. Not to say that one can't improve or another can't get worse, but the facts are the facts.

The likely culprit of our shooting percentage numbers right now? Terrible angle shots from anywhere on the ice because the coaching staff has asked the team to shoot more. There are certain areas on the ice that are "good" shooting areas, and we're not getting shots from there. We're just throwing **** at the net to see what happens.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Luck is but a tiny factor.

The more I've heard these guys harp on advanced metrics, the more clear it becomes they are mostly correct.

Shooters nearly always regress back up or down to their means over the season. A good shooter is a good shooter, a bad one is bad. Not to say that one can't improve or another can't get worse, but the facts are the facts.

The likely culprit of our shooting percentage numbers right now? Terrible angle shots from anywhere on the ice because the coaching staff has asked the team to shoot more. There are certain areas on the ice that are "good" shooting areas, and we're not getting shots from there. We're just throwing **** at the net to see what happens.

At this point it's just my opinion verse yours, but I don't agree with the last paragraph. I think they're getting some good chances.

And if the Devils claim Komisarek I will lose all hope.

 

[AfroThunder396]

The Devils have issues to remedy at forward, no doubt. I don't disagree.

A lot of you are unduly obsessed with what we have "on paper." Carter and Bernier have played like legitimate NHL third liners this year. Time to update your perception of them.

The problem is we have enough 3rd and 4th line players and not enough top-6 guys.

Kovy, Elias, and Clarkson are the only players on this team playing like top-6 forwards this year.

-Zajac is having a horrendous year (I'm willing to give him a mulligan on this season for many reasons)
-Henrique only has 6 ES points in 25 games
-Poni has been a non-factor since his first game back
-Although Loki has played well it's hard to draw conclusions from such a small sample size.

I don't think there's a person in the world that will criticize what Gionta, Carter, and Bernier have done this year. The problem is that those three players are 4th, 5th, and 7th in ES production this season. No offense to them, but none of them should be close to the top-5 in terms of ES point production.

Marty will certainly help stop the bleeding by boosting our defense and PK, but >2.4 GPG just simply isn't good enough. The NYR are the only team in the East with a worse offense, but they're in the exact opposite boat as us - all top end talent and no depth.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

ah yes, the ridiculous defining of 'luck'... my favorite argument ever

Ridiculous? Numerous studies show that every team in the NHL will converge towards the league average even strength shooting percentage over a large enough sample of games.

It's not perfect, as some teams create more quality chances than others, however don't expect a team to be above or below the average by more than 1.0% for multiple seasons.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Luck is but a tiny factor.

The more I've heard these guys harp on advanced metrics, the more clear it becomes they are mostly correct.

Shooters nearly always regress back up or down to their means over the season. A good shooter is a good shooter, a bad one is bad. Not to say that one can't improve or another can't get worse, but the facts are the facts.

The likely culprit of our shooting percentage numbers right now? Terrible angle shots from anywhere on the ice because the coaching staff has asked the team to shoot more. There are certain areas on the ice that are "good" shooting areas, and we're not getting shots from there. We're just throwing **** at the net to see what happens.

Very true, luck only a part of shooting %. I misspoke. Otherwise another good stat would the number of scoring chances perhaps.

 

[Devils Unseen Hand]

Let's be honest with ourselves here. Looking at it the same way {I'm sure} Lou Lams is....if we fail to win 2/3 by Monday night's game final, there will be a trade made during that 4-day stretch they're off.

It boils down to "who goes" and/or who is no longer needed.

If we go 1/3 this weekend & Lou doesn't make a trade during those 4 days off to kick-start this team, we have a better shot at not making the playoffs then doing so, as IMO Lou would have waited too long.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

you're not going to give yourself a chance for good puck luck though if you keep shooting from the same two spots over and over again, game after game, with the same look for teams to game plan against.

They had great success early running the low cycle and throwing the puck up the boards to the D to go D to D and then fire a shot on net and get a rebound but now that is the ONLY thing they're trying. Last night drove me nuts in particular because the Rangers KNEW that's what they were going to do and just positioned themselves in those two shooting lanes, even on the PK.

The Devils previous system was throw the puck back down low and force a cross-crease pass or *sigh* sharp angle shot. Can they please recognize when the other team has dialed in on the point shot and have a forward step up into the high slot or out wide down low and try to bust through from a different angle? Oh I realize this might mean moving your feet and having to fight through a check, but seriously, it's frustrating to watch the same play on an endless loop. I love me some shots from the point but there comes a point (about 10 games ago) where the returns are so diminished, it's time to try something new.

 

[apice3*]

I still think we make the playoffs. Then it's a reset season.

We aren't as good as the 1st place team we were in February, and we're not as bad as the team we are right now. We're somewhre in the middle.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

There's a difference between saying : Moose let in some pretty bad goals and : Moose is the reason why we are losing.

I agree there's a difference, but both are true.