Rumor: Trade Rumours Thread XIV: Rangers gauging interest on Callahan/Girardi

[HatTrick Swayze]

To play Devils advocate: is Callahan a 4.2M (UFA) player?

Will he be at that same level in 4 years? Because that is today's approximation of what a 6M player is in a 90M cap world.

 

[Matt4776]

To play Devils advocate: is Callahan a 4.2M (UFA) player?

Will he be at that same level in 4 years? Because that is today's approximation of what a 6M player is in a 90M cap world.

No, I don't think Callahan will be worth 4.2M in today's terms 4 years from now. And that's playing along with the assumption that the cap does rise all the way to 90M with a struggling Canadian dollar.

 

[Trxjw]

Uh... what? It makes the assumption that Callahan's play will decline, but that's okay because the relative amount of cap space he takes up will decline as well.

No, it's not okay. You're investing in an asset that will immediately decline in value.

I'm curious to know something. A lot of people keep on saying that Callahan is not a $6m player. I'd like to know what exactly that is based on.

Fine, let's ignore the cap hit and talk percentages. Previously he was the net-front presence on the top PP unit, and one of the top PKing forwards as well. Neither of which is the case anymore. This year he's seeing 1:57 of PP ice per game, and 1:17 of PK time. Last season he saw 3:12 of PP ice per game, 2nd amongst all Ranger players, and 2:33 of SHTOI per game. That's nearly a 40% drop in PP ice time under AV, and nearly 50% less time spent on the PK.

Now, apply those numbers to a player who scores a high percentage of his goals on the power play. So that means that at the very start of his contract, he is already a less effective player than he has been historically. That's before you start to consider a year over year decline in his play due to injuries and aging.

So that's how I conclude that he's not a $6M player. A 45-50 point forward who see's 2nd or even 3rd unit special teams ice on the PP and PK is not worth $6M per year. I love Cally as much as the next guy, but he wants too much money. Last year I would have gritted my teeth and given him $6M per year, but now he's playing a reduced role with the team, and that, coupled with his increasing age, will only lead to less production.

 

[Trxjw]

I don't disagree. The only caveat I see is the guys you mentioned all left their current teams to take huge money elsewhere.

That's a fair point. I was trying to liken the situation to Group III money considering that's what we're facing.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

That's a fair point. I was trying to liken the situation to Group III money considering that's what we're facing.

No, I got what you were saying. I'm just mentioning that there's also the factor of going somewhere new with expectations and cumulative effect of leaving a comfort zone and higher demands.

 

[Tawnos]

The other 6M players in the league.

http://capgeek.com/leaders/?type=CAP_HIT

Every player that is above 6M is either much better than Ryan Callahan, or, was much better than Ryan Callahan when his respective deal was signed.

OK. So let's take a look at all the forwards on that list between $6m and $6.5m. We will look at the RFA/UFA status, first year, first 7 years and cap% of the 7 year deal in first year of contract.

[table="css=trans;head"]Player|Status|1st yr|7 yr avg|Cap%
Milan Lucic|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Taylor Hall|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Eberle|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Staal|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jerome Iginla|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Mike Cammalleri|UFA|$5m|$6m|10.56%
Henrik Zetterberg|UFA|$7.4m|$7.49m|13.18%
Henrik Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Daniel Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Jonathan Toews|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
Patrick Kane|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
[/table]

Callahan, at $6m, would be at 8.43% of the projected cap for next year. In the years that Lucic/Hall/Eberle etc had their contracts kick in... that's a $5.4m contract. In the years that Cammalleri, Zetterberg, Sedins kicked in, that would be $4.8m. In the years of the Toews and Kane contracts, that would be a $5m contract. And that doesn't even mention that Lucic, Hall, Eberle, Toews, and Kane signed their deals as RFAs. The Sedins and Iginla are aging and their contracts take that into account.

Staal and Cammalleri's deals are the only comparable ones to Callahan in that group as UFAs hitting free agency early in their eligibility. He's still getting paid relatively less at $6m than either of them. In other words, that the players around $6m mean that Callahan at $6m is overpaid is a huge myth.

 

[Trxjw]

No, I got what you were saying. I'm just mentioning that there's also the factor of going somewhere new with expectations and cumulative effect of leaving a comfort zone and higher demands.

Gotcha. Fair enough.

 

[Tawnos]

No, it's not okay. You're investing in an asset that will immediately decline in value.

I wasn't saying it's okay. I was saying you misunderstand the idea of the benefit of declining cap % over the life of the deal. It accounts for the players decline in production. Now... will the percentage decline as fast as the players ability? Maybe. Definitely a risk.

Fine, let's ignore the cap hit and talk percentages. Previously he was the net-front presence on the top PP unit, and one of the top PKing forwards as well. Neither of which is the case anymore. This year he's seeing 1:57 of PP ice per game, and 1:17 of PK time. Last season he saw 3:12 of PP ice per game, 2nd amongst all Ranger players, and 2:33 of SHTOI per game. That's nearly a 40% drop in PP ice time under AV, and nearly 50% less time spent on the PK.

Now, apply those numbers to a player who scores a high percentage of his goals on the power play. So that means that at the very start of his contract, he is already a less effective player than he has been historically. That's before you start to consider a year over year decline in his play due to injuries and aging.

So that's how I conclude that he's not a $6M player. A 45-50 point forward who see's 2nd or even 3rd unit special teams ice on the PP and PK is not worth $6M per year. I love Cally as much as the next guy, but he wants too much money. Last year I would have gritted my teeth and given him $6M per year, but now he's playing a reduced role with the team, and that, coupled with his increasing age, will only lead to less production.

What you just laid out is not that Callahan isn't a $6m player, but that he isn't a $6m player on this team anymore. That's a fair and a legitimate point of view. It might even be a point of view currently shared with the front office, which is why they're exploring the trade market. But that doesn't mean he's asking for too much money, just that he's asking for more than we'd be willing to spend. To another team, he would fill all those roles he's not filling with us anymore... and that's what makes him a $6m player and justified in asking for that.

I want to be clear. I'm playing devil's advocate. I only advocate Callahan making $6m in the first 2 or 3 years of his deal if he were to resign with us. A $6m long-term deal likely means he's making $7m+ in the first few years and that, to me, is unacceptable.... for our team. For another team, it'd be worth it.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

OK. So let's take a look at all the forwards on that list between $6m and $6.5m. We will look at the RFA/UFA status, first year, first 7 years and cap% of the 7 year deal in first year of contract.

[table="css=trans;head"]Player|Status|1st yr|7 yr avg|Cap%
Milan Lucic|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Taylor Hall|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Eberle|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Staal|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jerome Iginla|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Mike Cammalleri|UFA|$5m|$6m|10.56%
Henrik Zetterberg|UFA|$7.4m|$7.49m|13.18%
Henrik Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Daniel Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Jonathan Toews|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
Patrick Kane|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
[/table]

Callahan, at $6m, would be at 8.43% of the projected cap for next year. In the years that Lucic/Hall/Eberle etc had their contracts kick in... that's a $5.4m contract. In the years that Cammalleri, Zetterberg, Sedins kicked in, that would be $4.8m. In the years of the Toews and Kane contracts, that would be a $5m contract. And that doesn't even mention that Lucic, Hall, Eberle, Toews, and Kane signed their deals as RFAs. The Sedins and Iginla are aging and their contracts take that into account.

Staal and Cammalleri's deals are the only comparable ones to Callahan in that group as UFAs hitting free agency early in their eligibility. He's still getting paid relatively less at $6m than either of them. In other words, that the players around $6m mean that Callahan at $6m is overpaid is a huge myth.

Much like the myth that Callahan's contract will be less than 7 years, or that the Rangers could trade him easily after 3 or 4.

The term is the larger issue, although I think the $$$'s are too high as well given Callahan's diminishing importance to the team, his injury history, and the history of what's happened to smallish players that play a physical game into their 30's.

 

[Trxjw]

I wasn't saying it's okay. I was saying you misunderstand the idea of the benefit of declining cap % over the life of the deal. It accounts for the players decline in production. Now... will the percentage decline as fast as the players ability? Maybe. Definitely a risk.

It's not that I misunderstand it, I just think it's a lousy excuse to justify giving money to a player. Especially one who has a high risk of rapid decline in play.

What you just laid out is not that Callahan isn't a $6m player, but that he isn't a $6m player on this team anymore. That's a fair and a legitimate point of view. It might even be a point of view currently shared with the front office, which is why they're exploring the trade market. But that doesn't mean he's asking for too much money, just that he's asking for more than we'd be willing to spend. To another team, he would fill all those roles he's not filling with us anymore... and that's what makes him a $6m player and justified in asking for that.

That's my fault if I was unclear, as that has been my contention all along. He could very well be a $6M player on another team, but I think, in this situation, he won't be and we can't afford to make that commitment.

I want to be clear. I only advocate Callahan making $6m in the first 2 or 3 years of his deal if he were to resign with us. A $6m long-term deal likely means he's making $7m+ in the first few years and that, to me, is unacceptable.... for our team. For another team, it'd be worth it.

Understandable, but for the Rangers the salary is never the issue. The cap hit is the focus. He might be making $4M in the 4th year of his deal, but he's still eating up $6M worth of cap space.

 

[Tawnos]

Much like the myth that Callahan's contract will be less than 7 years, or that the Rangers could trade him easily after 3 or 4.

The term is the larger issue, although I think the $$$'s are too high as well given Callahan's diminishing importance to the team, his injury history, and the history of what's happened to smallish players that play a physical game into their 30's.

I agree. The term in combination with his diminished role, which isn't going to change next year, are the issues here. Fact is, the player is worth less to the Rangers, even as Captain, on a long-term contract than he is to other teams.

 

[Tawnos]

It's not that I misunderstand it, I just think it's a lousy excuse to justify giving money to a player. Especially one who has a high risk of rapid decline in play.

You said that it "...makes one huge assumption, and that is that Callahan's play will remain at the current level..." Sorry if I misunderstood what you meant. I don't agree that it's a lousy excuse, but I do think that it has been overstated as part of the stance of the front office.

Understandable, but for the Rangers the salary is never the issue. The cap hit is the focus. He might be making $4M in the 4th year of his deal, but he's still eating up $6M worth of cap space.

The salary is what determines the cap hit... and also is a reflection of what the team expects the value of the player to actually be at that point of their career. Callahan is not a $7m player today, even if he is likely a $4m player in year 4. That'd be my issue with that.

 

[Raspewtin]

Soo, just wondering.

Is anybody in this board on board with resigning Pouliot?

 

[Mikos87]

OK. So let's take a look at all the forwards on that list between $6m and $6.5m. We will look at the RFA/UFA status, first year, first 7 years and cap% of the 7 year deal in first year of contract.

[table="css=trans;head"]Player|Status|1st yr|7 yr avg|Cap%
Milan Lucic|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Taylor Hall|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Eberle|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Staal|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jerome Iginla|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Mike Cammalleri|UFA|$5m|$6m|10.56%
Henrik Zetterberg|UFA|$7.4m|$7.49m|13.18%
Henrik Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Daniel Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Jonathan Toews|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
Patrick Kane|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
[/table]

Callahan, at $6m, would be at 8.43% of the projected cap for next year. In the years that Lucic/Hall/Eberle etc had their contracts kick in... that's a $5.4m contract. In the years that Cammalleri, Zetterberg, Sedins kicked in, that would be $4.8m. In the years of the Toews and Kane contracts, that would be a $5m contract. And that doesn't even mention that Lucic, Hall, Eberle, Toews, and Kane signed their deals as RFAs. The Sedins and Iginla are aging and their contracts take that into account.

Staal and Cammalleri's deals are the only comparable ones to Callahan in that group as UFAs hitting free agency early in their eligibility. He's still getting paid relatively less at $6m than either of them. In other words, that the players around $6m mean that Callahan at $6m is overpaid is a huge myth.

It's just an overbearing sentiment. Just front load the deal if he wants $6M & have 2 of the last 7 at lower cap hits and no NTC so he is tradable to a cash strap team when his game really declines.

YR1: $7M w. $3M in Signing Bonus, $4M Salary NMC
YR2: $7M w. $4SB 3 SAL NMC
YR3: $7M w. $4SB 3 SAL NMC
YR4: $6M w. $3SB 3 SAL NMC
YR5: $4.5M w. $4.5M SAL LIMITED NTC
YR6: $3.85M w. $3.85M SAL
YR7: $3.45 w. $3.45M SAL

7 years $38.8M. $5.54M Cap hit.

Cally wants 7 yrs $42M. Not that far off.

Cam the capologist sucks if he can't put a deal structure like this together.

 

[NYR Viper]

Soo, just wondering.

Is anybody in this board on board with resigning Pouliot?

All depends on the cost.

 

[Tawnos]

Cam the capologist sucks if he can't put a deal structure like this together.

Pretty sure that deal structure violates the CBA.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Soo, just wondering.

Is anybody in this board on board with resigning Pouliot?

I was thinking the same thing. 2-3 years at sub-$2MM and I'd definitely do it.

 

[Thirty One]

To play Devils advocate: is Callahan a 4.2M (UFA) player?

Will he be at that same level in 4 years? Because that is today's approximation of what a 6M player is in a 90M cap world.

Using the same methods, Gomez' contract was worth $5.27 million cap dollars in 2012-13 and Redden's was worth $5.25 million and their teams decided the smart play was to hold them out of action.

 

[nyr2k2]

Soo, just wondering.

Is anybody in this board on board with resigning Pouliot?

I'd give him another year.

 

[Thirty One]

Soo, just wondering.

Is anybody in this board on board with resigning Pouliot?

Heck yes, I am.

 

[Matt4776]

OK. So let's take a look at all the forwards on that list between $6m and $6.5m. We will look at the RFA/UFA status, first year, first 7 years and cap% of the 7 year deal in first year of contract.

[table="css=trans;head"]Player|Status|1st yr|7 yr avg|Cap%
Milan Lucic|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Taylor Hall|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Eberle|RFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jordan Staal|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Jerome Iginla|UFA|$6m|$6m|9.33%
Mike Cammalleri|UFA|$5m|$6m|10.56%
Henrik Zetterberg|UFA|$7.4m|$7.49m|13.18%
Henrik Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Daniel Sedin|UFA|$6.1m|$6.1m|10.74%
Jonathan Toews|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
Patrick Kane|RFA|$6.5m|$6.3m|10.60%
[/table]

Callahan, at $6m, would be at 8.43% of the projected cap for next year. In the years that Lucic/Hall/Eberle etc had their contracts kick in... that's a $5.4m contract. In the years that Cammalleri, Zetterberg, Sedins kicked in, that would be $4.8m. In the years of the Toews and Kane contracts, that would be a $5m contract. And that doesn't even mention that Lucic, Hall, Eberle, Toews, and Kane signed their deals as RFAs. The Sedins and Iginla are aging and their contracts take that into account.

Staal and Cammalleri's deals are the only comparable ones to Callahan in that group as UFAs hitting free agency early in their eligibility. He's still getting paid relatively less at $6m than either of them. In other words, that the players around $6m mean that Callahan at $6m is overpaid is a huge myth.

I don't think Callahan is only 600k less valuable than Lucic/Hall/Eberle.

They are all FAR superior players to Callahan.

If Callahan was a UFA and had no connection to the Rangers, what would you feel comfortable signing him for?

I wouldn't want any part of him. We have two great RWs already. He wouldn't fit on our 1st unit PP. What use do we have to him?

The fact that he is a current Ranger and our captain does change things a bit, I'm not saying it doesn't. But to go from not needing/wanting him at all if he was a UFA to committing a 7 year 42M contract just because he's our captain is asinine.

 

[Tawnos]

Using the same methods, Gomez' contract was worth $5.27 million cap dollars in 2012-13 and Redden's was worth $5.25 million and their teams decided the smart play was to hold them out of action.

That's a lot of money for a 4th line forward and a 3rd pair defenseman.

 

[Raspewtin]

Pierre was right when he said "Pouliot's playing his best since his Sudbury days". He didn't even play this well when he had the best season of his career in Boston. He's been great since the end of November. I think he's earned a one year "show me" deal, at around 2 million.

 

[Thirty One]

That's a lot of money for a 4th line forward and a 3rd pair defenseman.

Exactly. The rate at which players decline in their 30s will always exceed the amount the cap rises.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I agree. The term in combination with his diminished role, which isn't going to change next year, are the issues here. Fact is, the player is worth less to the Rangers, even as Captain, on a long-term contract than he is to other teams.

This is the major point. We can argue which line is the 2nd and which is the 3rd, but it's become quite obvious that Callahan is now the 3rd most important RW on the team, behind Nash and MZA. You do not devote 8-9% of your cap to that player. ESPECIALLY not when you've already allocated 30% to your #1D, #1RW and #1G alone.

(And that's not even factoring in the projected decline/injuries.)