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Rumor: Trade Rumours Thread XIV: Rangers gauging interest on Callahan/Girardi

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Matt4776 said:
I don't think Callahan is only 600k less valuable than Lucic/Hall/Eberle.
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Those three players were RFAs at the time of signing. Their contracts are simply not comparable. The baseline variance that I've seen in contracts that include both UFA and RFA years is 20%. Which means that all three as UFAs would have made $7.2m on the open market under those cap conditions. In relative cap numbers, that's $8m on the projected cap for next season.

There are a lot of nuances to this picture.
 
I don't think that Callahan will be worth more than 5M within three years of today. I could see Callahan not ever hitting 25g again, already. Realistically, a player like Callahan is not someone I would want to pay more than 4.5M even with the cap rising right now. For his intangibles and since he's our captain and a homegrown player, I can stomach paying a premium, but I wouldn't go beyond 5.2M, and I think that at that number, he is clearly overpaid.

Callahan is the definition of a glorified third liner. I don't say it as an insult and I'm a big fan of Callahan. I just mean that, factually, he's an ideal third liner who gets glorified into something more because of his "leadership, grit and great two-way play". Do you guys think this team would be SIGNIFICANTLY worse if you replaced Callahan with Sobotka in our lineup? I don't. Callahan is not, even remotely, irreplaceable. He was irreplaceable when he was a relatively cheap, cost controlled, younger player playing in a system that fit him like a glove. At this stage of his career, especially when you start discussing players in the 4.5-6M range, Callahan can easily be replaced with better results than paying him 5-6M for 6-7 years.

That simply has disaster (or perhaps, more aptly, "Drury") written all over it. I loved Chris Drury too. Loved him in Buffalo name loved him his first couple of years here. There just came a time when he was getting paid for much more than he was capable of. That's what's going to happen to Callahan in 3-4 years. A player like Callahan, at anything above 4.6M or so, is a luxury, not a necessity. I just don't think we need to spend the money it's going to cost to keep him on this roster.
 
Tawnos said:
Those three players were RFAs at the time of signing. Their contracts are simply not comparable. The baseline variance that I've seen in contracts that include both UFA and RFA years is 20%. Which means that all three as UFAs would have made $7.2m on the open market under those cap conditions. In relative cap numbers, that's $8m on the projected cap for next season.

There are a lot of nuances to this picture.
Click to expand...

You're right. There are a lot of nuances.

Hall/Lucic/Eberle all signed their deals at 6M while being better than Ryan Callahan is currently. Over the life of their contracts, they will continue to get better, making them better value as their contracts go on, compounded with the rising cap makes them exceptional value.

Ryan Callahan will sign a deal for 6M. He will continue to get worse.

If Ryan Callahan was a UFA with no affiliation for the Rangers, do you pursue him? I sure don't.
 
Raspewtin said:
Soo, just wondering.

Is anybody in this board on board with resigning Pouliot?
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After watching him dog it for the first 40 games of the season?

**** no. Get that loser no-show out of there. That spot belongs to a youth next year.
 
Mikos87 said:
Not there is not a 50% drop off in any of the cap hits from year to year. SB structure is fine. Prove your assumption if it's right.
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Salary cannot vary more than 35%. The last year cannot be more than 50% of the first. You have your numbers confused. It's the first vs last that's the problem on your deal.
 
Mikos87 said:
Not there is not a 50% drop off in any of the cap hits from year to year. SB structure is fine. Prove your assumption if it's right.
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That's old CBA. New CBA can't be more than 35% variance year-to-year, or a 50% variance from high-year to low-year.
 
Ryan Callahan's stats this year:

3rd in total TOI/game among forwards @ 17:52

6th in SH TOI/game among forward (Pyatt and Fast have higher SH TOI/game and are above him, no longer on active roster)

7th in PP TOI/game among forwards


He is a jack of all trades type of player but assuming those numbers will only go down as he gets older, is it worth it to pay him as the 2nd highest forward on the team?

20 points in 38 games this season
 
Matt4776 said:
You're right. There are a lot of nuances.

Hall/Lucic/Eberle all signed their deals at 6M while being better than Ryan Callahan is currently. Over the life of their contracts, they will continue to get better, making them better value as their contracts go on, compounded with the rising cap makes them exceptional value.

Ryan Callahan will sign a deal for 6M. He will continue to get worse.

If Ryan Callahan was a UFA with no affiliation for the Rangers, do you pursue him? I sure don't.
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Players signing long-term contracts as RFAs nearly always have increasing value over the life of the deal. Players signing long-term contracts as UFAs nearly always have diminishing value over the life of the deal. That is the entire point of the way the NHL's free agency structure works.
 
Tawnos said:
Salary cannot vary more than 35%. The last year cannot be more than 50% of the first. You have your numbers confused. It's the first vs last that's the problem on your deal.
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Last year cannot be 50% more than first or the other way around??

Can somebody pull up the rules so we have clarification?
 
I can't imagine the Rangers will deal Callahan. He's the captain; historically he makes a difference - meaning they play better with him than without. He's gritty. I don't see him "dogging it." And the team is playing very well right now - two to three good lines and can do some damage in the playoffs, have as good a chance as anyone to do that.

Though the Bruins and Penguins are the class of the East.
 
Tawnos said:
Players signing long-term contracts as RFAs nearly always have increasing value over the life of the deal. Players signing long-term contracts as UFAs nearly always have diminishing value over the life of the deal. That is the entire point of the way the NHL's free agency structure works.
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Very true, but a lot of the comparables you had in your chart will continue to get better and their value will continue to get better and better. Callahan will not.
 
bernmeister said:
IMO Moore has untapped potential. Not crazy potential, but could be competing for higher C if given chance. Has good vision, passing, boards, etc.
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I'm for that, but the scary part is that if Richards is bought out and Moore keeps his spot, then Center Depth looks like:

Stepan
Brassard
Moore
Boyle

Perhaps Miller would be a better fit for the 3rd line, but this still doesn't address the #1 center need.

Still think Richards is NOT bought out this off season.

ALSO,

Looks like Girardi is close to being signed. Difference in $ is low:

http://snyrangersblog.com/2013-14/2...on-what-the-rangers-have-offered-dan-girardi/
 
Mikos87 said:
Last year cannot be 50% more than first or the other way around??
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Meant less than 50%... originally wrote that as "more than a 50% variance".. just changed the way I phrased it.

If you want clarification, google it. CBA is downloadable from a bunch of different places.
 
azaloum90 said:
I'm for that, but the scary part is that if Richards is bought out and Moore keeps his spot, then Center Depth looks like:

Stepan
Brassard
Moore
Boyle

Perhaps Miller would be a better fit for the 3rd line, but this still doesn't address the #1 center need.

Still think Richards is NOT bought out this off season.

ALSO,

Looks like Girardi is close to being signed. Difference in $ is low:

http://snyrangersblog.com/2013-14/2...on-what-the-rangers-have-offered-dan-girardi/
Click to expand...

Not buying out Richards would be an AWFUL decision.

Would you sign Richards to a 6 year deal worth 6.7 million right now?
 
NYR Viper said:
Very true, but a lot of the comparables you had in your chart will continue to get better and their value will continue to get better and better. Callahan will not.
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The only two actual comparables on my chart were Staal and Cammalleri. Cammalleri got worse over the life of his and Staal's just started. I'd be surprised if he stayed exactly the same for the next 8 years.
 
Mikos87 said:
That's thinking like Paul Holmgren. 15 good games, and give a guy a deal.
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He has played well for more than 15 games. More like 30. He is a good skater and a decent offensive player. He adds some size and physicality to a top-9 lacking it, as sad as that is and he won't cost a ton.
 
Vitto79 said:
They won't bring them all back. Stralman is gone if or when girardi signs. They can't lock in that much on rd and block mcilrath

Boyle makes too much for a 4th liner . Going Dorsett and resigning Moore and carcillo at 1 million or so is fine. Fast and miller should not be blocked either
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Hartford is so bad right now as a team that they need to let these guys learn to play defense before we call them up and drop them in a **** show...

McI is NOT ready
 
Tawnos said:
The only two actual comparables on my chart were Staal and Cammalleri. Cammalleri got worse over the life of his and Staal's just started. I'd be surprised if he stayed exactly the same for the next 8 years.
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I'm confused, are you saying they should, or should not give Callahan a 7 year deal?
 
Regarding Pouliot. I've been satisfied with the way he's played. I'd rather make a play at Vanek or Moulson (if Callahan is traded and we buy out Richards) in the offseason, which would eliminate Pouliot's spot in the lineup. Can he play RW? If he can, then yes.
 
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