The Cap will only go from 71m to 75m between 14/15 and 15/16? That is the PA bumper with zero percent growth. I also think 80m is a tad high for 15/16, but the new TV money is coming into play.
Many are predicting that the floor in 15/16 will be what the cap is today.
Also, when predictions is made, they are made pretty good but they obviously don't speculate on which teams will go deep in the PO's. If you predict number X, and then get a lower Y, the numbers guy don't want to stand there saying that he thought Chicago would go deep while it turned out to be PHX and Anaheim playing the conference finals in the West. On the other side of that coin, we all know that the number reported by the league to its owners has been around a mil low every single year. Why? Big market teams goes deep.
We don't know if the NHL has hedged against the Loonie either. I believe its even stipulated in the CBA that the NHL can put some money in a fund to hedge against currency cost. The loonie was real high, don't seem that much of a reach.
Those Mirtle numbers is a joke BTW. He is counting on a 5 percent growth, the NHL's avg growth is 7 percent. Mirtle is not counting on the PA bumper. Despite the NHL averering 7% growth on avg during the worst financial crash ever, Mirtle seem to think he is going on a limb when counting on 5% growth over the course of the CBA. His numbers are also from November 2013.
The world has a debt crisis. The only way to get out of it is to get some inflation going, let the inflation eat up some debt, and do the right things in general. You know. Nobody will let their economy go the Japan route with zero inflation / border line deflation. People have learned, they will print money. Japan was afraid that they couldn't buy up half of the US anymore if they printed money, well China blew past them like no tomorrow and now even they have started to print money.
A business is also not growing like the industrial avg. Many many many business rise and fall flat all the time. When you grow, you grow. 9% on avg during decent years? My point is just, expect growth. Expect a lot of it.
I don't know if we can bank on 80 in two years, seems a bit high but so is the new TV-deal. But bank on a cap around 90m in 17/18. That is just 4 years down the road. How will expension effect the cap? A team in Hamilton will push it up, a team in Bettman territory can push it down some. Will it be a wash-out?