Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXX

[JimmySpaetzle]

Here's the real question though, how do we improve our GF, what do we do to improve.

The levers available to enact change areas important as where we currently stand. Outside of getting Norris back, I don't see much we can do to improve the offense, at least not directly. We already get the chances, our top 6 forwards are all capable of finishing even if they haven't been getting it done 5v5 lately.

So what do we do to improve GF?

On the flip side, I think we can do more to improve personnel on the back end, we can do more to limit rebound chances and DZ giveaways.

Interestingly from an xGF perspective

xGF/60 2.35 (23rd) last year vs 2.85 (6th) this year
xGA/60 2.66 (25th) last year vs 2.65 (18th) this year

To me at least this aligns more with the eye test than the actual goals do, I see more improvement offensively than defensively. League scoring is on the rise so I intuitively see the rankings as more indicative than the raw per 60 numbers,

I mean you say “outside of getting Norris back” pretty nonchalantly, he’s our #1 or 2C and a 35 goal scorer

 

[Dionysus]

Formenton is never going to play in the NHL again.

Link or other news? Haven't heard any updates.

 

[JD1]

Here's the real question though, how do we improve our GF, what do we do to improve.

The levers available to enact change areas important as where we currently stand. Outside of getting Norris back, I don't see much we can do to improve the offense, at least not directly. We already get the chances, our top 6 forwards are all capable of finishing even if they haven't been getting it done 5v5 lately.

So what do we do to improve GF?

On the flip side, I think we can do more to improve personnel on the back end, we can do more to limit rebound chances and DZ giveaways.

Interestingly from an xGF perspective

xGF/60 2.35 (23rd) last year vs 2.85 (6th) this year
xGA/60 2.66 (25th) last year vs 2.65 (18th) this year

To me at least this aligns more with the eye test than the actual goals do, I see more improvement offensively than defensively. League scoring is on the rise so I intuitively see the rankings as more indicative than the raw per 60 numbers,

That's the question isn't it. Because the data says our structure should be leading us to places it isn't

Idk. Maybe it is the pressure of actually having to compete. We should be scoring more and we're not.

This is where I don't put huge stock in swapping out the coaching staff. Sure, maybe there's some incremental improvements on the back end that can be implemented but Barry Trotz standing on that bench at 5M per season isn't going to change the shooting percentage.

Do you golf? Being a good driver of the ball and having a mediocre short game and bad putting doesn't result in a pro spending his practice time on the range pounding driver.

I don't have any answers for it. I think DeBrincat getting on a roll helps. With increased goal scoring he should be a 45 goal man but he's not near that pace. Having a shooter like Norris back will help. And then there's just pure bad luck.

To be honest the biggest source of encouragement for me is that the process, playing our game or trusting our system, is leading to situations where we should be scoring. It just has to start going in.

 

[bert]

I dunno, if they manage to dump Zaitsev then I can see them adding another D fore sure. Or at least the dollars will be there if they find a deal that works for them.

There's not enough money. Period Stutzle is getting a 7.3 million dollar raise Debrincat is getting one for 2.5/3, even if they bridge Pinto at 3 million. There still isn't money for another d man. They also have to let Talbot walk and hope filly hamonics spot with a 1.5 million dollar d man.

Suggesting to give Boucher to unnecessarily dump Zaitsev also makes no sense.

 

[Silencio]

 

[Cosmix]

If JBD was going to sit tonight for Brannstrom then it makes sense. Belleville plays 2 games this week. I think JBD is back up before we head out on the road.

I suspect that JBD may be back up after a trade of a D man (Zaitsev, Holden, Hamonic, Brannstrom). It's what we get back that will determine where he plays; if we get a true top 4 RD, then he will play 3rd pair RD.

 

[Cosmix]

There's not enough money. Period Stutzle is getting a 7.3 million dollar raise Debrincat is getting one for 2.5/3, even if they bridge Pinto at 3 million. There still isn't money for another d man. They also have to let Talbot walk and hope filly hamonics spot with a 1.5 million dollar d man.

Suggesting to give Boucher to unnecessarily dump Zaitsev also makes no sense.

I doubt Dorion will trade Boucher with Zaitsev to get rid of Zaitsev's contract because it would be an admittance of failure in drafting Boucher as a #10 OA pick.

I could see a 2nd round pick being traded with Zaitsev to accomplish that. It could be part of a larger trade with a first round draft pick or prospects to get a true top 4 RD.

 

[Cosmix]

Here's the real question though, how do we improve our GF, what do we do to improve.

The levers available to enact change areas important as where we currently stand. Outside of getting Norris back, I don't see much we can do to improve the offense, at least not directly. We already get the chances, our top 6 forwards are all capable of finishing even if they haven't been getting it done 5v5 lately.

So what do we do to improve GF?

On the flip side, I think we can do more to improve personnel on the back end, we can do more to limit rebound chances and DZ giveaways.

Interestingly from an xGF perspective

xGF/60 2.35 (23rd) last year vs 2.85 (6th) this year
xGA/60 2.66 (25th) last year vs 2.65 (18th) this year

To me at least this aligns more with the eye test than the actual goals do, I see more improvement offensively than defensively. League scoring is on the rise so I intuitively see the rankings as more indicative than the raw per 60 numbers,

I suppose the difference in xGF - xGA (2.85-2.65=0.20) is so small that it does not translate into more wins and points. It seems consistent with a .500 hockey team. The difference will need to be expanded to move up into a playoff bubble team. A top 4 RD would probably help by reducing the xGA to create that larger difference; it could be a defence-oriented D or an offence-oriented D.

 

[JD1]

I suspect that JBD may be back up after a trade of a D man (Zaitsev, Holden, Hamonic, Brannstrom). It's what we get back that will determine where he plays; if we get a true top 4 RD, then he will play 3 RD.

His skating probably isn't 100%. Guys returning from high ankle sprains typically take a while to get back up to speed. Some time in Belleville while we're relatively healthy on D lets him get his skating back down there. That's my guess anyway

 

[Cosmix]

Zaitsev holds JBD’s spot. If they can’t trade Zaitsev, they might send him down again after giving JBD reps at Belleville. Even if Ottawa is able to replace Zaitsev with a solid NHL top-4, I still see JBD up at some point to take a spot on the 23-man roster.

JBD is the closest to graduate, he doesn’t bring much offence but he is steady and ready to bring his game to the next level.

I see JBD as a replacement for Hamonic at 3RD. Both Zaitsev and Hamonic need to go to create salary and cap room for a true top 4 RD

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Link or other news? Haven't heard any updates.

No news but unless he is publically cleared, which seems unlikely, he is exiled.

 

[Micklebot]

That's the question isn't it. Because the data says our structure should be leading us to places it isn't

Idk. Maybe it is the pressure of actually having to compete. We should be scoring more and we're not.

This is where I don't put huge stock in swapping out the coaching staff. Sure, maybe there's some incremental improvements on the back end that can be implemented but Barry Trotz standing on that bench at 5M per season isn't going to change the shooting percentage.

Do you golf? Being a good driver of the ball and having a mediocre short game and bad putting doesn't result in a pro spending his practice time on the range pounding driver.

I don't have any answers for it. I think DeBrincat getting on a roll helps. With increased goal scoring he should be a 45 goal man but he's not near that pace. Having a shooter like Norris back will help. And then there's just pure bad luck.

To be honest the biggest source of encouragement for me is that the process, playing our game or trusting our system, is leading to situations where we should be scoring. It just has to start going in.

DeBrincat getting on a role and Norris coming back will help a lot, I think guys started gripping their sticks tight when injuries hit and it's gotten in their heads.

Wrt a coaching change, I think where you really see the benefit is in player development and in playoffs as coaches adapt game plans to suit the opponent more. We don't know how DJ will do in the playoffs, as far as development goes, I'm seeing some positives and negatives.

He'll likely be replaced with new ownership and to me that's ok.

 

[JD1]

I suppose the difference in xGF - xGA (2.85-2.65=0.20) is so small that it does not translate into more wins and points. It seems consistent with a .500 hockey team. The difference will need to be expanded to move up into a playoff bubble team. A top 4 RD would probably help by reducing the xGA to create that larger difference; it could be a defence-oriented D or an offence-oriented D.

What would be far more helpful is closing the gap between xGF/60 and GF/60. The gap is .77 goals per game which incidentally is the highest gap, by far, in the league.

And there's simply no way to win with that gap.

 

[Micklebot]

Guy was likely on our do not draft list, known for his offense and hasn't translated it to pro hockey, I don't see us having any interest in him with Thomson and JBD, he'd be a third waiver eligible RHD next year, none of which have locked down a roster spot

 

[bert]

I doubt Dorion will trade Boucher with Zaitsev to get rid of Zaitsev's contract because it would be an admittance of failure in drafting Boucher as a #10 OA pick.

I could see a 2nd round pick being traded with Zaitsev to accomplish that. It could be part of a larger trade with a first round draft pick or prospects to get a true top 4 RD.

Why are the sens doing it now though? The cost will be coming down. This team needs its assets.

 

[Cosmix]

Why are the sens doing it now though? The cost will be coming down. This team needs its assets.

I suppose the team should do it when the right player becomes available for the price you are willing to pay. Whether that is during this season or the summer does not matter now, given this season is already a lost cause for making the playoffs. It should have been done last season or last summer. I suspect Dorion thought Hamonic was the solution for a top 4 RD but was afraid to say so due to his previous blunders.

 

[Micklebot]

What would be far more helpful is closing the gap between xGF/60 and GF/60. The gap is .77 goals per game which incidentally is the highest gap, by far, in the league.

And there's simply no way to win with that gap.

Well, to be fair, we have the 8th best pts% in the league since 25 Nov (18 games) with an xGF and GF gap of 1.09 goals per game. Special teams have been great for us, tied for most pp GF and 3rd least. PK goals allowed.

 

[DrEasy]

I suspect that JBD may be back up after a trade of a D man (Zaitsev, Holden, Hamonic, Brannstrom). It's what we get back that will determine where he plays; if we get a true top 4 RD, then he will play 3rd pair RD.

It's going to be easy to fit him in if we're out of contention at the deadline. Presumably Hamonic and possibly Holden (if he has any trade value) will be traded then, making room for JBD and possibly Thomson.

 

[Cosmix]

Holden might be of interest to a team looking to make the playoffs or a SC contender as an insurance type of player in the event that a D gets hurt. I think he might be worth a last round pick or a failing prospect, so I do not expect to get anything of value.

Hamonic could be worth a 3rd round pick at best for teams looking for a 3rd pair D for the playoffs.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Interesting thought. (for me atleast)

Would you guys be comfortable throwing in Boucher in as a sweetener with Zaitsev to clear his caphit?

I am not as down as this board on Boucher. I think he can be a solid third liner in a few years.

It'll likely cost more than Boucher to move Zaitsev right now.

Boucher probably doesn't have more than a 2nd round pick in value after two disappointing seasons, and Zaitsev will cost at least that much to move in the summer, with an increased price to dump him now obviously.

 

[UglyPuckling]

IMO any help to the bottom 6 should be good bargain. Max I'd spend is 2 million a la Jarnkrok.

Our priority is to get someone like TB did with McDonagh.

If you look at post #1217, we are about $250 k away from the $83.5 m cap ceiling with Debrincat & Talbot (or equivalent goalie) included. 8 players were sub $900k: #7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 18, 21 & 22. That was all of the 3rd & 4th line except for Pinto and the bottom pair D & 7D.

Maybe you could show us how you'd accommodate a $6.75 m defenseman next year (like McDonagh) by posting a 22-player 2023-24 roster with Debrincat & Talbot (or equivalent) in it? Perhaps you have some innovative ideas that others haven't though of.

Also, if you are talking about CALLE JÄRNKROK who currently plays for the Maple Leafs, his AAV is $2.1 m and he's signed with a M-NTC through to the end of 2025-26 season. Jarnkrok alone would be more expensive than the entire bottom pair in post #1271.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

There's not enough money. Period Stutzle is getting a 7.3 million dollar raise Debrincat is getting one for 2.5/3, even if they bridge Pinto at 3 million. There still isn't money for another d man. They also have to let Talbot walk and hope filly hamonics spot with a 1.5 million dollar d man.

Suggesting to give Boucher to unnecessarily dump Zaitsev also makes no sense.

So…is everyone just lying. Dorion isn’t looking for a dman? Or are you suggesting that Dorion is actually going to trade one of our bigger contracts straight up for one.

 

[SweSensFan]

Ok, so we aren't scoring on rebounds, but we do have the 8th most rebound shots on goal at 5v5, how do you propose we increase our sh% on rebounds, outside of "play harder" since play harder isn't

Ok, so we aren't scoring on rebounds, but we do have the 8th most rebound shots on goal at 5v5, how do you propose we increase our sh% on rebounds, outside of "play harder" since play harder isn't really a system.

I dunno, I would think one factor is playing with more desperation, more urgency. We need to want it badder! (Yes badder is a word, maybe just not in the dictionary yet)

 

[Micklebot]

So…is everyone just lying. Dorion isn’t looking for a dman? Or are you suggesting that Dorion is actually going to trade one of our bigger contracts straight up for one.

I mean, if we aren't looking for a Dman what does that actually mean, both Holden and Hamonic's contracts are up so is Brannstrom and JBD. The later two are RFA so likely re-signed, do we play both JBD and Thomson if Zaitsev is moved?

I don't see any way we don't add a RHD for next year if we move on from Zaitsev and Hamonic. That might mean moving on from somebody else though, DeBrincat is one option that gets thrown around but maybe we don't bring back Talbot or we move Forsberg. Alternatively maybe we move Joseph.

 

[Micklebot]

I dunno, I would think one factor is playing with more desperation, more urgency. We need to want it badder! (Yes badder is a word, maybe just not in the dictionary yet)

So does desperate/urgency and playing badder just convert rebounds or does it result in us getting more sticks on pucks and produce more rebounds? It seems we are playing with enough urgency to get on those rebounds and put them on net, but your suggesting more urgency would finish more of them, so why do teams finishing lots of rebounds not have increase rebound chances too due to displaying more urgency than us?

Idk, attributing our issues to more intangible factors like truculence seems reductive to me. Not that saying attributing it to bad luck or they just have the yips and are gripping their sticks to tight is any better.