Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXX

[DaveMatthew]

its possible to keep DBC, give Zub 5mill and also get another defensemen. Esp with Formenton probably out the door it actually makes a lot more sense to give that money to give DBC a raise

They def have intention to keep him and have probably added him to the budget. Giroux is a short term solution and will be off the books thats when DBC value will be awesome. Its actually a good setup that we have in the top 6

"They" who have the intention to keep him won't be in charge much longer. So it doesn't really matter. Nor do I think it was much of a concern when the trade was made, because "they" knew they had to turn a corner to keep their jobs. Short-term won over long-term when the decision had to be made.

We'll see what the philosophy of the new GM is.

 

[BankStreetParade]

NLA is definitely one of the top European leagues, I'm not sure what makes you think otherwise

A worse league in quality than the KHL, SHL, Liiga and, arguably, the Czech league. Is it one of the top European leagues simply by default?

YOU JUST SAID THAT HE IS TOXIC BECAUSE HE SIGNED WITH A BOTTOM 3 TEAM.

The Swiss elite league is right there with those top leagues. Are you new?

YES I DID DURRRRRRRR

The Swiss league is not "right there" with other European leagues. And signing with a bottom feeder in that league is not a good look. aRe YoU nEw???

 

[DaveMatthew]

A worse league in quality than the KHL, SHL, Liiga and, arguably, the Czech league. Is it one of the top European leagues simply by default?

I don't think you have an understanding of the European pro hockey landscape...

The Swiss league is either 1, 2 or 3 in terms of strength with the KHL and SHL, and it's very understandable why a North American would not go to play in Russia right now. From a lifestyle perspective, the Swiss league is probably the most desired by non NHLers. Fantastic place to live and play.

Rankings

www.championshockeyleague.com

Czech league is not good. Jagr just played in a game at 50, after not playing for over a year, and put up 2 points.

 

[bert]

A worse league in quality than the KHL, SHL, Liiga and, arguably, the Czech league. Is it one of the top European leagues simply by default?


YES I DID DURRRRRRRR

The Swiss league is not "right there" with other European leagues. And signing with a bottom feeder in that league is not a good look. aRe YoU nEw???

..... Another unbelievable response.

The Swiss league is absolutely a top league in the world. Hence the fact you are either new or lost. One of the two without a shadow of a doubt.

 

[BankStreetParade]

..... Another unbelievable response.

The Swiss league is absolutely a top league in the world. Hence the fact you are either new or lost. One of the two without a shadow of a doubt.

uNbELiEvabLEeEEeEeeE!!!!!

 

[Micklebot]

A worse league in quality than the KHL, SHL, Liiga and, arguably, the Czech league. Is it one of the top European leagues simply by default?

What are you basing that opinion on?

As an example, the CHL (Champions Hockey League) is a tournament where teams from all the top European leagues participate, and they have rankings for each league, that might be a good place to start.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Well sure, but they had to expect it would be around his QO number regardless. I doubt he’s going to surprise them.

The issue is what they can afford if the cap is $83.5 m.

Here is a roster with:

• Debrincat at his QO of $9 m
• Zub resigned at $4.5 m
• Pinto on a bridge
• Roy added (or another inexpensive but decent RD) at $3.15 m.

The roster has a lot of prospects slotted in to keep the total down, but it's still at $83,774,047 and thus over the cap ceiling.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I don't think you have an understanding of the European pro hockey landscape...

The Swiss league is either 1, 2 or 3 in terms of strength with the KHL and SHL, and it's very understandable why a North American would not go to play in Russia right now. From a lifestyle perspective, the Swiss league is probably the most desired by non NHLers. Fantastic place to live and play.

Rankings

www.championshockeyleague.com

Czech league is not good. Jagr just played in a game at 50, after not playing for over a year, and put up 2 points.

You know what, we're still moving the goalposts from where this discussion started. Signing with a bottom-feeder is not a good look. Forget the KHL, we all know what's happening over there. This was the best he could do? One of the fastest players in the NHL who paced at 20G last year and just turned 23 and he had to sign a contract with a basement dweller in the Swiss league? The whole point I was making is that this kid is toxic right now and no one wants him. Where he signed is all the proof we need.

 

[DaveMatthew]

You know what, we're still moving the goalposts from where this discussion started. Signing with a bottom-feeder is not a good look. Forget the KHL, we all know what's happening over there. This was the best he could do? One of the fastest players in the NHL who paced at 20G last year and just turned 23 and he had to sign a contract with a basement dweller in the Swiss league? The whole point I was making is that this kid is toxic right now and no one wants him. Where he signed is all the proof we need.

I mean, there are all sorts of nuances that you're just ignoring. I.e. Limits on contracts/import players, where he thinks he'll slot in terms of ice time on different teams, etc. His goal is not to win in Switzerland. It's to play as much as he can. Where a team is in the standings probably didn't factor into his decision.

And while Formenton is certainly very toxic amongst NHL teams right now, I don't think any team, or person, in Europe cares. He could have signed with Davos and I don't think it would have made the news in Switzerland.

 

[Ice-Tray]

That's naive.

Dorion is human, and as a human, he knew that the team was going to have new ownership and it was important for his job security to have a big season. It'd be more difficult to make a change at GM if the team made, or almost made the playoffs. Despite what we say on this board, he's not an idiot.

Heck, anyone who watched "Welcome to Wrexham" would know this. In the show, after they closed on the purchase of the team (with only part of the season left), it was brought to the attention of Ryan Reynolds (our future owner) and Rob McElhenney that there were concerns/rumors amongst the players and coaches about the change and their job security. Their answer? "Go out and win. If you win, it'll be hard to make changes to a winning team. Why would you?"

That's how it works. So Dorion very well knew he had to win.

In Wrexham, the team didn't win. So there were big changes the second the season ended.

Debrincat was an acquisition to help that push this year. The hope was that being part of an ascendant, winning team would convince him to stay. But there likely was no long-term plan beyond that. How could there have been? Debrincat said himself that no one from the Senators talked to him or his agent prior to the trade. It's hard to have a "solid framework" when the guy who actually needs to make the decision is not involved in putting together that framework.

Maybe it turns around, but at this point, it's hard to predict Dorion being part of the plan with new ownership. So it'll be up to the new GM to make that decision, and it's not inconceivable that they'd want to spend the ~8M in a different manner.

The sunk cost fallacy won't exist with new ownership and management.

It’s naive to think the GM traded 7OA for a young 40 goal scorer with the intentions of signing him and keeping him?

Cool.

 

[Micklebot]

You know what, we're still moving the goalposts from where this discussion started. Signing with a bottom-feeder is not a good look. Forget the KHL, we all know what's happening over there. This was the best he could do? One of the fastest players in the NHL who paced at 20G last year and just turned 23 and he had to sign a contract with a basement dweller in the Swiss league? The whole point I was making is that this kid is toxic right now and no one wants him. Where he signed is all the proof we need.

Idk, that seems like a leap. Teams have filled their roster, he's coming in mid season. The team he joined is still in the mix for playoffs, adding him could very well be enough to solidify a spot, he's got a former teammate that plays with them.

I mean, maybe you're right but I don't think it's a given based solely on what team he signed with.

 

[Ice-Tray]

The issue is what they can afford if the cap is $83.5 m.

Here is a roster with:

• Debrincat at his QO of $9 m
• Zub resigned at $4.5 m
• Pinto on a bridge
• Roy added (or another inexpensive but decent RD) at $3.15 m.

The roster has a lot of prospects slotted in to keep the total down, but it's still at $83,774,047 and thus over the cap ceiling.

View attachment 621581

I really appreciate the time and effort you put into this, truly.

It’s good to visualize that there is a tight passage to navigate, but in the end there are options to move if it becomes an issue.

DBC isn’t the guy you worry about when the squeeze is a year and you’re looking long term in my opinion. You find the money elsewhere and add back the following year.

If there needs to be a casualty, I would hope that it isn’t a guy who is set to be a key part of the team going forward (Zub, DBC).

 

[Hale The Villain]

The issue is what they can afford if the cap is $83.5 m.

Here is a roster with:

• Debrincat at his QO of $9 m
• Zub resigned at $4.5 m
• Pinto on a bridge
• Roy added (or another inexpensive but decent RD) at $3.15 m.

The roster has a lot of prospects slotted in to keep the total down, but it's still at $83,774,047 and thus over the cap ceiling.

View attachment 621581

Good summary.

So we can re-sign ADB and Zub if cheap out on the 4th line + 3rd pairing, and go with Forsberg as #1 + a rookie backup, while also finding someone to take on Zaitsev.

Not really that realistic, but neither is re-signing both ADB and Zub for that matter.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It’s naive to think the GM traded 7OA for a young 40 goal scorer with the intentions of signing him and keeping him?

Cool.

You didn't say "intentions" of signing him. You said a "solid framework" for signing him.

Considering they have yet to engage in any contract extension discussions, and the first thing Debrincat said was that he wanted to hold off on having those discussions, I don't think that was the case.

So yes, I think the trade was primarily to improve the team for this upcoming season, and there was a "we'll figure the rest out later" attitude. The pressure to win now combined with last year's draft class being viewed as weak made the decision pretty simple.

I'm not saying that was wrong, btw. I thought the team was ready to take that next step as well, and would have made the same trade.

But at this point, I think it's pretty unlikely that Debrincat is here after next season. Whatever plan Dorion had is probably no longer relevant, considering the upcoming sale and the performance of the team so far this year.

 

[UglyPuckling]

It’s naive to think the GM traded 7OA for a young 40 goal scorer with the intentions of signing him and keeping him?

Cool.

Could be that the current GM is not the future GM. I think that was one of the points the poster was making.

Also, not pointing this at you, but a lot of what was discussed by some about off-season additions need to be reexamined now that the cap is likely to be $83.5 m.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Good summary.

So we can re-sign ADB and Zub if cheap out on the 4th line and 3rd pairing, and go with Forsberg as #1 and a rookie backup, while also finding someone to take on Zaitsev.

Not really that realistic, but neither is re-signing both ADB and Zub for that matter.

Yes, even if you fill a lot of slots with cheap players, give Zub a relatively team friendly deal, ETC, it's very hard to make the numbers work to stay under cap if the plan is to keep Debrincat at his QO.

I just like focusing and playing with the numbers because they are the most objective part of this. These different "what if" scenarios can be generated quickly & easily. I'll let others throw around the hypotheses & play with their magic easy buttons LOL.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I really appreciate the time and effort you put into this, truly.

It’s good to visualize that there is a tight passage to navigate, but in the end there are options to move if it becomes an issue.

DBC isn’t the guy you worry about when the squeeze is a year and you’re looking long term in my opinion. You find the money elsewhere and add back the following year.

If there needs to be a casualty, I would hope that it isn’t a guy who is set to be a key part of the team going forward (Zub, DBC).

There was a fair amount of optimism built in to that model. One assumption was that Zub will resign at $4.5 m, but there were other assumptions that I included as bullet points. There were quite a few slots filled with inexpensive & inexperienced ELCs, and yet the total was still over the cap ceiling.

I just like playing with the numbers. After the initial spreadsheet was created (took about 3 minutes), then permutations can be generated very quickly (seconds versus minutes). As a result and by presenting the numbers/models, you can frame or categorize some of these discussions into relatively realistic, or not realistic at the least.

 

[Ice-Tray]

You didn't say "intentions" of signing him. You said a "solid framework" for signing him.

Considering they have yet to engage in any contract extension discussions, and the first thing Debrincat said was that he wanted to hold off on having those discussions, I don't think that was the case.

So yes, I think the trade was primarily to improve the team for this upcoming season, and there was a "we'll figure the rest out later" attitude. The pressure to win now combined with last year's draft class being viewed as weak made the decision pretty simple.

I'm not saying that was wrong, btw. I thought the team was ready to take that next step as well, and would have made the same trade.

But at this point, I think it's pretty unlikely that Debrincat is here after next season. Whatever plan Dorion had is probably no longer relevant, considering the upcoming sale and the performance of the team so far this year.

Yes, as in the planned on how they would potentially sign the guy before trading him, as in they planned on how to make the money work under multiple situations.

I’m also not sure that new ownership is going to come in and fire everyone mid season, let alone immediately when they take over, and I also don’t believe that management is frozen right now either.

Furthermore, I don’t think that people around the league, including potential owners, think that team has been managed and coached as poorly as some fans on this forum do.

DBC will likely be signed long term, as long as he wants to stay and be a part of the team. That’s my opinion

 

[DaveMatthew]

I’m also not sure that new ownership is going to come in and fire everyone mid season, let alone immediately when they take over, and I also don’t believe that management is frozen right now either.

Furthermore, I don’t think that people around the league, including potential owners, think that team has been managed and coached as poorly as some fans on this forum do.

The new owners won't close on the team midseason. It's likely to be in May or June. Hopefully for our sake, before the draft.

At that point, it's almost a certainty that Dorion (and subsequently the coaching staff) will be relieved, barring a miraculous turnaround to this season and a playoff berth. Even then it's a long shot. "Maybe they'll keep Dorion" is the same as "Maybe Melnyk's daughters will keep the team". The latter was never going to happen. Neither will the former.

It's becoming obvious that Alfredsson will be involved with the organization in the future, regardless of who is the winning group. That's all that needs to be known to logically see where this is going in regard to Dorion.

Besides, the first goal of new ownership will be to get people to believe that "things will be different now" so they buy season tickets. That'll be impossible if Dorion and DJ are still the ones getting in front of the microphone.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Yes, even if you fill a lot of slots with cheap players, give Zub a relatively team friendly deal, ETC, it's very hard to make the numbers work to stay under cap if the plan is to keep Debrincat at his QO.

I just like focusing and playing with the numbers because they are the most objective part of this. These different "what if" scenarios can be generated quickly & easily. I'll let others throw around the hypotheses & play with their magic easy buttons LOL.

I'm fine filling in the bottom 6 with guys like Greig, Sokolov, Crookshank etc... but we'd be extremely lucky to re-sign Zub for only 4.5M, add a RD for 3.15M and get away with JBD/Thomson penciled into the bottom pair for the whole year.

Not to mention goaltending could be a disaster. I would want a 1B starter with Forsberg at least. Sogaard looks promising but he has a grand total of 50 games played at the AHL level and definitely could use more seasoning.

If we could dump Joseph's contract it would provide some additional flexibility, but I don't see any team agreeing to pay 3M for a mediocre 3rd liner.

 

[Big Muddy]

I’m also not sure that new ownership is going to come in and fire everyone mid season, let alone immediately when they take over, and I also don’t believe that management is frozen right now either.

No, even though when they select the winning bid at the end of January, the sale won't be finalized until several months later. That's when Dorion will get fired most likely and a new GM and management team will take over. The "when" side of this is not important really.

 

[GCK]

The issue is what they can afford if the cap is $83.5 m.

Here is a roster with:

• Debrincat at his QO of $9 m
• Zub resigned at $4.5 m
• Pinto on a bridge
• Roy added (or another inexpensive but decent RD) at $3.15 m.

The roster has a lot of prospects slotted in to keep the total down, but it's still at $83,774,047 and thus over the cap ceiling.

View attachment 621581

Sogaard is not ready to back up next year. Add at least another 600K to the backup position.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

What's the precedent when sales happen?

Seems to me if memory serves correctly that anyone that gets kept, usually ends up as first on the chopping as soon as things don't look rosey. A trial run is the absolute best I think Dorion could expect, but I will be shocked if he's kept past the summer. DJ is basically guaranteed out imo.

 

[Big Muddy]

I'm fine filling in the bottom 6 with guys like Greig, Sokolov, Crookshank etc... but we'd be extremely lucky to re-sign Zub for only 4.5M, add a RD for 3.15M and get away with JBD/Thomson penciled into the bottom pair for the whole year.

Not to mention goaltending could be a disaster. I would want a 1B starter with Forsberg at least. Sogaard looks promising but he has a grand total of 50 games played at the AHL level and definitely could use more seasoning.

If we could dump Joseph's contract it would provide some additional flexibility, but I don't see any team agreeing to pay 3M for a mediocre 3rd liner.

Yes I agree. The cap will be a challenge at $83.5 m.

 

[DaveMatthew]

What's the precedent when sales happen?

Seems to me if memory serves correctly that anyone that gets kept, usually ends up as first on the chopping as soon as things don't look rosey. A trial run is the absolute best I think Dorion could expect, but I will be shocked if he's kept past the summer. DJ is basically guaranteed out imo.

Last few sales:

Alex Meruelo bought the Coyotes at the end of July 2019. John Chayka remained as GM for one season after the sale (he had been there for 3 years before the sale).

Tom Dundon bought the Hurricanes in January 2018. Ron Francis was fired 3 months later, at the end of the season (he had been there for 4 years before the sale).

John Ledecky and Scott Malkin bought the Islanders in July 2016. Garth Snow remained as GM for two more seasons after the sale (he had been there 10 years before the sale!).

Vincent Viola bought the Panthers at the end of September 2013. Dale Tallon remained as GM for another 3 seasons after the sale (had been there for 3 seasons before the sale).

Geoff Molson bought the Canadiens in December 2009. Bob Gainey "resigned" as GM 2 months later.

So it depends.