Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXX

[stempniaksen]

To Ottawa: Matt Roy
To LAK: Jakob Chychrun
To Arizona: Alex Turcotte/LAK 1st 2023 + Helge Grans + OTT 2nd 2023 + OTT 2nd 2024 + Pick/prospect from LA

Sens need a RD with size, Kings need a big upgrade at LD.

AZ apparently looking for the equivalent of two 1sts and a 2nd for Chychrun. A lot would depend on how they view Turcotte in this scenario, imo. Grans is a RD which fits a need in their system and then the two OTT 2nds roughly equal out to another late first (and gives more ammo to trade up if desired).

Might seem like a little much from the Sens at face value, but top-four D-men have gone for two 2nds in the past. Roy is also young enough that he'll be under 30 when his contract runs out and could possibly be re-upped for a small raise. Of all the speculated names at RD he's one of the biggest and likely the best.

I'd much rather slightly overpay for someone who will fill an actual hole instead of giving up a 3rd every few years for a Hamonic/Dumba type who are clearly on the downswing.

 

[GCK]

My favourite Hale move is looking back at an entire off season of trades and acquisitions, highlighting the single player transaction out of literally hundreds that was the most beneficial to the acquiring team and pointing to that move as the obvious thing that Dorion should have done.

Not to mention that GMs tend to have some other GMs they prefer to deal with. Not every player dealt has been offered around the league.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Not to mention that GMs tend to have some other GMs they prefer to deal with. Not every player dealt has been offered around the league.

And they may have vastly different views of individual players than we do, an example being the assumption that the difference between Smith and JBD/Thomson/Brannstrom being an easy gap to bridge.

 

[TheNewEra]

To Ottawa: Matt Roy
To LAK: Jakob Chychrun
To Arizona: Alex Turcotte/LAK 1st 2023 + Helge Grans + OTT 2nd 2023 + OTT 2nd 2024 + Pick/prospect from LA

Sens need a RD with size, Kings need a big upgrade at LD.

AZ apparently looking for the equivalent of two 1sts and a 2nd for Chychrun. A lot would depend on how they view Turcotte in this scenario, imo. Grans is a RD which fits a need in their system and then the two OTT 2nds roughly equal out to another late first (and gives more ammo to trade up if desired).

Might seem like a little much from the Sens at face value, but top-four D-men have gone for two 2nds in the past. Roy is also young enough that he'll be under 30 when his contract runs out and could possibly be re-upped for a small raise. Of all the speculated names at RD he's one of the biggest and likely the best.

I'd much rather slightly overpay for someone who will fill an actual hole instead of giving up a 3rd every few years for a Hamonic/Dumba type who are clearly on the downswing.

i think that last piece 'pick/prospect from LA' just needs to be swapped to something from ottawa but i would still do this

 

[stempniaksen]

i think that last piece 'pick/prospect from LA' just needs to be swapped to something from ottawa but i would still do this

I thought about that honestly. Maybe a guy like Lassi if the org thinks he'll end up on waivers next season anyways. I think Ottawa and LA could both theoretically add another piece and still be happy that they got "their guy" to fill the teams biggest need.

Something like 2nd + 2nd + prospect from Ottawa and Turcotte + Grans + Pick from LA.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

"That much"
Bro it's a late 1st then a bunch of nothing.

Yeah I take it back. I still don't think the Rangers somehow "fleeced" the Blues as I've seen some people say, but it's kind of a good trade for both teams.

 

[Micklebot]

think Hamonic is a bit of a unique case in that he has a long history of being very picky about where he plays/wanting to play in Western Canada. Not to mention Dumba has much more offensive cache. Plus, as you mentioned, the Covid thing.

Good point, forgot about his desire to play in western Canada for family reasons

Also, while you are right that 3/4 are big DMen, 3/4 are also RHD and the 4th has played some RD. Big guys get overpaid... but so do RHD.

I'm not sure that takes anything away from my point, I think being big was inflating their salaries. I'm also not sure if the RHD premium holds up all the time.

Looking at the top 150 cap hits among D, Right handed D have a 9% higher cap hit, but once you get past the top 50, the script flips, with 51 to 75 LHD getting paid more for a short bit at 5% more for Lhd. From 75 and up it's about even.

Now you can certainly argue that talent isnt equal and RHD are generally just better players, but it gets subjective at that point.

I don't hate Dumba, I think he has a chance of being a #4 again, I just dont see a world in which his salary wants and what we can afford to pay him jive.

Yeah, certainly fair, I wouldn't give up a lot to test drive him, if Min wants cap space, we could flip them a 3rd or Holden, and then see where negotiations go, but with him I am bargain hunting based on perceived leverage.

 

[GCK]

I’d be open to a Brannstrom for Jake Middleton. Middleton has a 2.45M AAV for 2 more seasons. Nice bridge to Kleven.

 

[DJB]

I really don’t see a ton of allure with Dumba other than being a RHD that’s available.

He’s lost foot speed and not nearly as physical as he used to be. His offense seems to be taking a nosedive and he was never really known to be a defensive guy. Also prone to dumb penalties. Add in a huge salary and it’s confusing why people want him

 

[Micklebot]

I really don’t see a ton of allure with Dumba other than being a RHD that’s available.

He’s lost foot speed and not nearly as physical as he used to be. His offense seems to be taking a nosedive and he was never really known to be a defensive guy. Also prone to dumb penalties. Add in a huge salary and it’s confusing why people want him

Available is part of it, his salary isn't too relevant since he's a UFA, the question is more about can he return to form, and what does his next deal look like.

Not a guy I'm targeting but at the right price I can see the allure

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Good point, forgot about his desire to play in western Canada for family reasons

I'm not sure that takes anything away from my point, I think being big was inflating their salaries. I'm also not sure if the RHD premium holds up all the time.

Looking at the top 150 cap hits among D, Right handed D have a 9% higher cap hit, but once you get past the top 50, the script flips, with 51 to 75 LHD getting paid more for a short bit at 5% more for Lhd. From 75 and up it's about even.

Now you can certainly argue that talent isnt equal and RHD are generally just better players, but it gets subjective at that point.

Yeah, certainly fair, I wouldn't give up a lot to test drive him, if Min wants cap space, we could flip them a 3rd or Holden, and then see where negotiations go, but with him I am bargain hunting based on perceived leverage.

I wouldn't say it takes away from your point, but it is an additional relevant factor. I think size & RHD can both lead to being overpaid.

 

[Micklebot]

I wouldn't say it takes away from your point, but it is an additional relevant factor. I think size & RHD can both lead to being overpaid.

See my next paragraph in the post you quoted, does being right handed actually inflate salary once you get past the really elite guys?

Even 26-50, the difference between average salary LHD to RHD is less than 2%. Are we really expecting to pay a RHD premium if we're targetting a #3 D?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

See my next paragraph in the post you quoted, does being right handed actually inflate salary once you get past the really elite guys?

Even 26-50, the difference between average salary LHD to RHD is less than 2%. Are we really expecting to pay a RHD premium if we're targetting a #3 D?

By my count, there are a decent amount more actual RD than LD in that top 75. It's almost perfectly even when you divide by handedness, but less so when you count LHD who play RD.

You might also find that size doesn't have a huge correlation to pay.

But we can both definitely point to cases in which RHD and big bodies were overpaid despite having no qualities that justify the overpay besides being a RHD and/or a big body.

 

[Micklebot]

By my count, there are a decent amount more actual RD than LD in that top 75. It's almost perfectly even when you divide by handedness, but less so when you count LHD who play RD.

You might also find that size doesn't have a huge correlation to pay.

But we can both definitely point to cases in which RHD and big bodies were overpaid despite having no qualities that justify the overpay besides being a RHD and/or a big body.

Ok, I cleaned up the data so that any Dman listed as LD/Rd was considered a RHD, results still only give a premium for the to 50 or so, but the premium really dropped (suggesting LHD that play RD don't really get the premium). On the flip side, the premium for LHD after50 increased a bit.

Idk, I think there will always be cases where a guy gets overpaid, and the logical reasoning will be scarcity of some attribute they have at that time, and maybe the effect is more pronounced if I only include UFA deals, but I'm not prepared to assume a RHD premium at this point once we get passed the elite.

And your right, maybe if I filter for height and weight I might get similar results, who knows

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Ok, I cleaned up the data so that any Dman listed as LD/Rd was considered a RHD, results still only give a premium for the to 50 or so, but the premium really dropped (suggesting LHD that play RD don't really get the premium). On the flip side, the premium for LHD after50 increased a bit.

Idk, I think there will always be cases where a guy gets overpaid, and the logical reasoning will be scarcity of some attribute they have at that time, and maybe the effect is more pronounced if I only include UFA deals, but I'm not prepared to assume a RHD premium at this point once we get passed the elite.

And your right, maybe if I filter for height and weight I might get similar results, who knows

Yeah, I think it is hard to make any sort of statistical analysis without controlling for a ton of factors. But, anecdotally, we know that GMs value size on the back-end and capable RD.

 

[bicboi64]

I'd be fine with Dumba if he wanted to extend long term but not go past $6 million, but this is his last chance to cash out so his next deal he'll be looking for $7million at the least which just isn't worth it

To Ottawa: Matt Roy
To LAK: Jakob Chychrun
To Arizona: Alex Turcotte/LAK 1st 2023 + Helge Grans + OTT 2nd 2023 + OTT 2nd 2024 + Pick/prospect from LA

I'd do this, heck if the yotes want a prospect like Boucher or Thomson, go ahead.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Still think there's a deal to be made involving Chabot + bad contracts for Karlsson with some retention:

Chabot, Joseph, Zaitsev for Karlsson (20% retained)

Sharks get the younger D as a part of their rebuild/re-tool, at the cost of being worse in the present (benefit if they are trying to rebuild) and taking on a couple bad contracts.

Sens add the best D in the league in 2022/23 at the cost of a higher chance of regression given his older age, open up 6.25M in cap space to shore up the bottom 6 and add a competent defensive LD to play with Karlsson.

I wonder if adding Karlsson could help convince ADB to re-sign too.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'd rather stay clear of Dumba and try to upgrade on Hamonic with someone younger.
I would rather acquire someone like Andrew Peeke (RFA) 25 in March from CBJ if we can get him cheap enough.

Blues F Ryan O'Reilly rises, Blackhawks' Patrick Kane falls on updated TSN Trade Bait board | TSN

They may not be in the same realm as newly traded NBA superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but Bo Horvat, Vladimir Tarasenko and the New York Rangers’ first-round draft pick moving in deals well before the March 3 trade deadline is sounding the alarm and may be a harbinger of things to come.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Hale The Villain]

Also worth noting that EK with 20% retention actually only costs 7.8M in real salary over the remaining 4 years of his deal, while Chabot's backloaded contract costs 9.2M in real salary over the last 5 years of his contract.

With Melnyk gone and new ownership on the way real salary owed won't be as much of a factor, but we're still a smaller market team and any money saved could be re-routed to other areas in the organization which have certainly fallen to the wayside under previous ownership.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Still think there's a deal to be made involving Chabot + bad contracts for Karlsson with some retention:

Chabot, Joseph, Zaitsev for Karlsson (20% retained)

Sharks get the younger D as a part of their rebuild/re-tool, at the cost of being worse in the present (benefit if they are trying to rebuild) and taking on a couple bad contracts.

Sens add the best D in the league in 2022/23 at the cost of a higher chance of regression given his older age, open up 6.25M in cap space to shore up the bottom 6 and add a competent defensive LD to play with Karlsson.

I wonder if adding Karlsson could help convince ADB to re-sign too.

Do you think Dorion has that much rope?

 

[Micklebot]

I'd be fine with Dumba if he wanted to extend long term but not go past $6 million, but this is his last chance to cash out so his next deal he'll be looking for $7million at the least which just isn't worth it

I don't see it personally, I mean, Klingberg was coming off much better offensive numbers and had to take a 1 year show me deal to shake off bad defensive reputation.

If dumba wants more than 6 mil he's going to have to accept that he won't get term with it, especially if they don't come to some sort of agreement to boost the cap more next year.

Nobody is giving him 6+ and term... Are they?

 

[bicboi64]

I don't see it personally, I mean, Klingberg was coming off much better offensive numbers and had to take a 1 year show me deal to shake off bad defensive reputation.

If dumba wants more than 6 mil he's going to have to accept that he won't get term with it, especially if they don't come to some sort of agreement to boost the cap more next year.

Nobody is giving him 6+ and term... Are they?

I'm just cautious, I think about the deals Philly gave to Ristolainen and Sanheim, heck the overpay that Jarmo gave Gudbranson. just nervous about us giving him term if we sign him

 

[Hale The Villain]

Do you think Dorion has that much rope?

I doubt it. Might have to wait until the summer if new ownership and new management thinks it makes sense.

 

[Cosmix]

I'd rather stay clear of Dumba and try to upgrade on Hamonic with someone younger.
I would rather acquire someone like Andrew Peeke (RFA) 25 in March from CBJ if we can get him cheap enough.

Blues F Ryan O'Reilly rises, Blackhawks' Patrick Kane falls on updated TSN Trade Bait board | TSN

They may not be in the same realm as newly traded NBA superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but Bo Horvat, Vladimir Tarasenko and the New York Rangers’ first-round draft pick moving in deals well before the March 3 trade deadline is sounding the alarm and may be a harbinger of things to come.

www.tsn.ca

I don't see any Senators on that list.

 

[bicboi64]

I'd rather stay clear of Dumba and try to upgrade on Hamonic with someone younger.
I would rather acquire someone like Andrew Peeke (RFA) 25 in March from CBJ if we can get him cheap enough.

Blues F Ryan O'Reilly rises, Blackhawks' Patrick Kane falls on updated TSN Trade Bait board | TSN

They may not be in the same realm as newly traded NBA superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but Bo Horvat, Vladimir Tarasenko and the New York Rangers’ first-round draft pick moving in deals well before the March 3 trade deadline is sounding the alarm and may be a harbinger of things to come.

www.tsn.ca

They extended him recently so he might not be available. However, I wouldn't mind taking a swing at Jake Bean off them. He plays both sides, is 24, and only costs $2.33million aav.

If Jarmo is on the same crack he was smoking when he signed Gudbranson, maybe we can trade Zaitsev + to them for Bean. They're going to lose Gavrikov this season so they might be looking for some LD help for next year. I'd offer Brannstrom, Zaitsev, and a 2nd for Bean