Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals PART XXXXII

[Micklebot]

Mods: Can we get a live GDT for today?

Sure, why not

GDT: - Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G

Will Dorion pull another rabbit out of his hat?

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Micklebot]

Putting this thread on Pause for today, carry on in the free agency GDT, I'll open this back up tomorrow or maybe we can start a fresh thread for a fresh new season.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Re-opened

From here

GDT: - Free agency madness, brought to you by the letter G - PART 2

While Philly is a team in need for a D-Man today, i would never ever offer two 2nds to take Zaitsev. I like the concept of waiting for a team in need looking for a RD so why not sit tight and see what happens. Vancouver got a 3rd for a guy who was on waivers earlier in the year. I think a lot...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[UglyPuckling]

2023-24 AAVs

I'm just talking a look at the roster AAV numbers versus trying to predict exactly who will be on the team. The goal is to see where we stand relative to the salary cap next year. By creating a spreadsheet, the "what if" scenarios (if we add player "X", what are the cap implications) can be calculated very quickly (less than 30 seconds).

NOTES:

1. Zaitsev subtracted and NOT included. Veteran defenders have been replaced with low cost ELCs (Thomson & JBD).
2. Hamonic & Holden subtracted and NOT included. Generally, all contracts that will expire this year have NOT been included.
3. Talbot is not included and has been replaced by Sogaard. Defenders (item #2) & goaltender replacements were done to keep the total salaries low in order to meet cap.
4. Debrincat salary has been included = Qualifying offer
5. Pinto & Formenton (or a replacement) salaries were included at $2 m. That was a guess and could be low.
6. This is a 22 player roster.
7. Performance bonuses are not included.

TOTAL $81.7 m

Tkachuk 8.205
Norris 7.950
Batherson 4.975
Total Line 1: $21.13 m

Debrincat 9.0 (qualifying offer)
Stutzle 8.35
Giroux 6.5
Total Line 2: $23.85 m

Joesph 2.95
Pinto 2.0 (resigned)
Formenton or XXX 2.0
Total Line 3: $6.95 m

Kelly .763
Gambrell/replacement .950
Motte 1.35
Total Line 4 $3.063 m

Chabot 8.0
Zub 4.5 (new contract)
1st pair total $12.5 m

Sanderson .925
JBD .925
2nd pair total $1.850

Thomson .863
Brannstrom 1.2 (resigned to short term contract)
3rd pair total: $2.063 m

Forsberg 2.75
Sogaard .925
Goalie total: $3.675 m

Murray retained 1.562
Buyout:
B Ryan 1.833
C. White .875
MDZ .750
Total retained/buyouts $5.02 m

Forward #13 .800
Defender #7 .800

TOTAL $81.7 M

 

[GCK]

2023-24 Salaries

I'm just talking a look at the roster AAV numbers versus trying to predict exactly who will be on the team. The goal is to see where we stand relative to the salary cap next year. By creating a spreadsheet, the "what if" scenarios (if we add player "X", what are the cap implications) can be calculated very quickly (less than 30 seconds).

NOTES:

1. Zaitsev subtracted and NOT included. Veteran defenders have been replaced with low cost ELCs (Thomson & JBD).
2. Hamonic & Holden subtracted and NOT included. Generally, all contracts that will expire this year have NOT been included.
3. Talbot is not included and has been replaced by Sogaard. Defenders (item #2) & goaltender replacements were done to keep the total salaries low in order to meet cap.
4. Debrincat salary has been included = Qualifying offer
5. Pinto & Formenton (or a replacement) salaries were included at $2 m. That was a guess and could be low.
6. This is a 22 player roster.
7. Performance bonuses are not included.

TOTAL $81.7 m

Tkachuk 8.205
Norris 7.950
Batherson 4.975
Total Line 1: $21.13 m

Debrincat 9.0 (qualifying offer)
Stutzle 8.35
Giroux 6.5
Total Line 2: $23.85 m

Joesph 2.95
Pinto 2.0 (resigned)
Formenton or XXX 2.0
Total Line 3: $6.95 m

Kelly .763
Gambrell/replacement .950
Motte 1.35
Total Line 4 $3.063 m

Chabot 8.0
Zub 4.5 (new contract)
1st pair total $12.5 m

Sanderson .925
JBD .925
2nd pair total $1.850

Thomson .863
Brannstrom 1.2 (resigned to short term contract)
3rd pair total: $2.063 m

Forsberg 2.75
Sogaard .925
Goalie total: $3.675 m

Murray retained 1.562
Buyout:
B Ryan 1.833
C. White .875
MDZ .750
Total retained/buyouts $5.02 m

Forward #13 .800
Defender #7 .800

TOTAL $81.7 M

1. There is zero chance Greig on his ELC isn’t in that lineup.

2. Debrincat isn’t going to make 9M in Ottawa. If he doesn’t sign Long-term he is gone.

 

[UglyPuckling]

1. There is zero chance Greig on his ELC isn’t in that lineup.

2. Debrincat isn’t going to make 9M in Ottawa. If he doesn’t sign Long-term he is gone.

1. I am not trying to predict the exact lineup. This was stated in the 1st sentence. I am only trying to get a feel and decent estimate of the AAV numbers for the next (2023-24) season as a foundation for discussion. As an example though, IF you were to replace the Gambrell/replacement (950k) with Grieg's salary of $863 k, the difference would be $87 k i.e., a very small difference.

2. We can debate what the team will decide to offer to a specific player all day long. Once again, this was not my intent. See point #1 above. For example, if we sign Debrincat at $8.5 m to a long term contract then you just need to subtract 500k from the total. That's the value of the spreadsheet and this exercise. Another example would be the idea of adding Chychrun and his $4.6 m AAV. It's now very simple to see what the impact would be on our cap. This could (should) be useful to frame discussions on roster and salaries/AAVs next year.

 

[GCK]

1. I am not trying to predict the exact lineup. This was stated in the 1st sentence. I am only trying to get a feel and decent estimate of the AAV numbers for the next (2023-24) season as a foundation for discussion. As an example though, IF you were to replace the Gambrell/replacement (950k) with Grieg's salary of $863 k, the difference would be $87 k i.e., a very small difference.

2. We can debate what the team will decide to offer to a specific player all day long. Once again, this was not my intent. See point #1 above. For example, if we sign Debrincat at $8.5 m to a long term contract then you just need to subtract 500k from the total. That's the value of the spreadsheet and this exercise. Another example would be the idea of adding Chychrun and his $4.6 m AAV. Its now very simple to see what the impact would be on our cap.

Greig will be top 9 so pick one of your top 9 above and replace them with Greig. It can be Formenton or Joesph or Debrincat.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Greig will be top 9 so pick one of your top 9 above and replace them with Greig. It can be Formenton or Joesph or Debrincat.

So, IF you were to replace Formenton with Grieg, the difference in salary would be $1.137 m, and the total 2023-24 AAV would be $80.6 m. These what if scenarios are quick & easy to do using the underlying spreadsheet that was developed.

Once again, I am not trying to predict the exact lineup, but get a feel for the numbers next season. If anything, I am trying to keep the Senators HF crowd in mind and keep the most important and/or popular players on the roster i.e., Debrincat.

 

[Sens Vader]

Hague still isn’t signed, he would be a good pickup if Chychrun doesn’t pan out

 

[Sens Vader]

-2 Zaitsev

 

[DJB]

There ya go guys.

Chychrun not close and Zona wants Pinto which Sens have no interest in moving

 

[Senscore]

There ya go guys.

Chychrun not close and Zona wants Pinto which Sens have no interest in moving

Armstrong certainly is bold I'll give him that.

 

[DJB]

Armstrong certainly is bold I'll give him that.

To me it’s not an outrageous ask at all.
I’d do the same.

But like I wrote a few weeks ago, Pierre has moved on from Chrycrun

 

[aragorn]

They have some guys they need to move on from IMO in Brannstrom, Zaitsev, Gambrell, Watson, Hawryluk & Holden. Of the bunch I think Watson & Holden can still play a roll but it would be better if we could improve those positions especially from within. Kastelic needs to be on this team sooner than later.

 

[UglyPuckling]

There ya go guys.

Chychrun not close and Zona wants Pinto which Sens have no interest in moving

Ya, heard that too in the intermission. Seems like this was both anticipated and discussed in here.

If the respective GMs have had the opportunity to discuss this all summer, and the deal hasn't happened, there's likely a reason for that. As they say, things happen for a reason.

 

[Que]

Classic play by Armstrong. Ask for an untouchable asset and “compromise” by allowing the other party to think they won by selecting the ‘lesser’ asset you had your eye on the whole time.

Armstrong wants Kleven.

Fudgesickles.

 

[aragorn]

There are a few assets I would give up in a trade like Brannstrom, Jarventie, Thomson, Crookshank, Kelly, Gambrell, Lodin, Daoust & a few others. There are also a number of them that I would not.

 

[Snowwy]

Classic play by Armstrong. Ask for an untouchable asset and “compromise” by allowing the other party to think they won by selecting the ‘lesser’ asset you had your eye on the whole time.

Armstrong wants Kleven.

Fudgesickles.

Obviously if Armstrong would take Kleven as a centerpiece or whatever, the trade would have been made. Kleven is a dime a dozen prospect.

 

[Laphroaig]

They have some guys they need to move on from IMO in Brannstrom, Zaitsev, Gambrell, Watson, Hawryluk & Holden. Of the bunch I think Watson & Holden can still play a roll but it would be better if we could improve those positions especially from within. Kastelic needs to be on this team sooner than later.

I don't understand your desire to move on from Hawryluk. The guy is on a two way contract. There is no downside to having him in the organization. At worst he makes Belleville a better team. At best he provides excellent injury insurance for the Sens. I like the way he plays.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Thing is, he has a history of injury, is currently injured, is a LD that had a down year playing in the right side last year. He also puts pressure on the cap for all the above.

This is not a situation where we trade assets that we want to keep, especially not Pinto, and I wouldn’t trade Kleven for him either.

He just isn’t a guy that fills a hole that we need.

 

[HSF]

putting pressure on the cap should not be a reason to not go after Chychrun

cap is not an issue right now

 

[senswon]

much rather get a proper RD, and also fire zaitsev into the sun.

 

[SensFactor]

much rather get a proper RD, and also fire zaitsev into the sun.

The sun doesn't wait Zaitsev either

 

[aragorn]

Scott Mayfield RD is a guy this team could use on the backend, he would likely be cheaper than Chychrun.

 

[Big Muddy]

Obviously if Armstrong would take Kleven as a centerpiece or whatever, the trade would have been made. Kleven is a dime a dozen prospect.

Yes, I doubt if Kleven is the sticking point or the reason why the trade between the Yotes/Senators hasn't happened. Kleven might be one of the pieces in a trade, but not the main one.

Also, the cap is not an issue now, but it could be next year. A lot depends on how much the cap might rise. Most contracts have multi-year terms, so a GM needs to look beyond the current year and understand the downstream implications of a trade and its impact on cap. As far as next years cap is concerned, I will guess it will be closer to $85 million than $90 million even with what Daly has recently said.