Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic]

[GCK]

Not a fan of Toronto getting McCabe, they have a very deep roster but really hoping they get bounced in the first again with Acciari and ROR walking.

It’s all in Samsonov’s hands now.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

The leafs could be a lottery team by then.

Nah

 

[GCK]

Nah

Matthews and Nylander could be gone.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Matthews and Nylander could be gone.

Highly doubtful both leave.

 

[GCK]

Highly doubtful both leave.

I agree but I think Matthews is going to leave.

 

[Ouroboros]

Justin Holl might be the move to make for Dorion. McCabe deal pushes him out of the Leafs lineup, but he's a big upgrade on Hamonic. Probably cheap too given Toronto's cap issues.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Very little value compared to today.

Eh I disagree.

If we trade Debrincat today, we maybe get a 1st + Conditional 1st + B prospect + C prospect.
If we trade Debrincat next deadline, we maybe get a 1st + B prospect + C prospect.

Is it significantly less value? Not enough to push me to do it now. We're not getting the return that Meier got, because ADB is not as good as Meier. One is a 5'7, 165 lb winger on pace for 27 goals, the other is a 6'1, 220 lb winger on pace for 45 goals.

Honestly our better bet is hoping the DBC rebounds next year playing under, hopefully, a new coach. His value is already lessened right now just because of his play.

Also, not being talked about is that we probably can't retain any money this year based on where our ownership stands. That would complicate things significantly. Most contenders could not absorb 100% of the remainder of his cap hit.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The leafs could be a lottery team by then.

I mean…probably not? Very likely not

Justin Holl might be the move to make for Dorion. McCabe deal pushes him out of the Leafs lineup, but he's a big upgrade on Hamonic. Probably cheap too given Toronto's cap issues.

Don’t think he’s that big of an upgrade on Hamonic

 

[bicboi64]

It’s all in Samsonov’s hands now.

Murray can always get healthy and choke as well

 

[GCK]

Eh I disagree.

If we trade Debrincat today, we maybe get a 1st + Conditional 1st + B prospect + C prospect.
If we trade Debrincat next deadline, we maybe get a 1st + B prospect + C prospect.

Is it significantly less value? Not enough to push me to do it now. We're not getting the return that Meier got, because ADB is not as good as Meier. One is a 5'7, 165 lb winger on pace for 27 goals, the other is a 6'1, 220 lb winger on pace for 45 goals.

Honestly our better bet is hoping the DBC rebounds next year playing under, hopefully, a new coach.

Also, not being talked about is that we probably can't retain any money this year based on where our ownership stands. That would complicate things significantly. Most contenders could not absorb 100% of the remainder of his cap hit.

Of course we can retain money. We apparently can’t add money but retention means 50% is still off the books.

Murray can always get healthy and choke as well

They don’t have cap space to bring Murray off LTIR until playoffs.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Of course we can retain money. We apparently can’t add money but retention means 50% is still off the books.

Maybe, maybe not. We didn't retain on Motte, and I bet the Rangers asked since they're going through all sorts of cap shenanigans just to ice a roster right now. Every penny counts for them.

Who knows if we had retained 50% maybe that conditional 7th could have been a 5th.

If Dorion had a lesser off with no retention and a better offer with retention, I bet he'd have to accept the lesser offer with no retention.

 

[Micklebot]

Maybe, maybe not. We didn't retain on Motte, and I bet the Rangers asked since they're going through all sorts of cap shenanigans right now. Every penny counts for them.

Who knows if we had retained 50% maybe that conditional 7th could have been a 5th.

I think with Motte we just wanted to maintain flexibility because we're in dollars in dollars out mode, we aren't retaining 50% so that we can get an extra 5th round pick, that's about as meaningless as it gets and could become an issue for something that actually matters a few days latter.

If the trade deadline comes and there isn't an offer that's bringing back a roster player we desire, why wouldn't we be able to retain. Shedding money is still shedding money, if a trade doesn't happen unless we retain for ~20 games, I'm pretty confident we can make it happen.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I think with Motte we just wanted to maintain flexibility because we're in dollars in dollars out mode, we aren't retaining 50% so that we can get an extra 5th round pick, that's about as meaningless as it gets and could become an issue for something that actually matters a few days latter.

If the trade deadline comes and there isn't an offer that's bringing back a roster player we desire, why wouldn't we be able to retain. Shedding money is still shedding money, if a trade doesn't happen unless we retain for ~20 games, I'm pretty confident we can make it happen.

The scenario could be:

Offer A - less valuable but no retention
Offer B - more valuable but has retention

I have no idea how involved the board/whoever is approving trades is, or what questions they ask of Dorion. But with someone like Debrincat, there might be more scrutiny, since 50% retention would be worth $~1M in real cash. So if the decision is to trade him, maybe they push Dorion to prioritize deals with no retention.

If Dorion goes to the board and says, "Carolina has offered X for DBC if we retain 50%." Would they ask, "Can you make the trade with no retention?". Maybe they wouldn't, I don't know.

But it really doesn't matter. It's clear that Dorion is prioritizing returns that include NHL-ready players. It's unlikely he'd trade DBC for solely a futures package, and the calibre of NHL-ready player(s) we'd be looking for are unlikely to be dealt at the deadline. They're more likely to be available in the summer.

That, in combination with us being on the periphery of the race, and still wanting to extend him, is why he's not going to be moving.

 

[Union2017]

Murray can always get healthy and choke as well

My wet dream this season is to make the playoffs and then WE knock the Leafs out. I know, more chance of me winning the Lottomax, but I would be in 7th heaven!

 

[GCK]

Maybe, maybe not. We didn't retain on Motte, and I bet the Rangers asked since they're going through all sorts of cap shenanigans just to ice a roster right now. Every penny counts for them.

Who knows if we had retained 50% maybe that conditional 7th could have been a 5th.

If Dorion had a lesser off with no retention and a better offer with retention, I bet he'd have to accept the lesser offer with no retention.

We only have 2 retention slots available. Wasting one for a Motte trade would be dumb.

 

[DaveMatthew]

We only have 2 retention slots available. Wasting one for a Motte trade would be dumb.

Sure, maybe we retain on Watson and Talbot. Guess we’ll see.

 

[GCK]

Sure, maybe we retain on Watson and Talbot. Guess we’ll see.

Or Hamonic or Debrincat or as a 3rd party broker.

 

[bert]

Last summer Fiala was traded for a 1st (19OA) and Brock Faber. Fiala was a year away from UFA, like ADB will be this offseason.

That's probably the floor of what you'll get in June.

If Carolina offers a similar package that NJ traded for Meier tomorrow, would that entice me enough to make the move now rather than wait and see what comes up in the summer? Knowing that there is a floor of a 1st + good prospect?

Probably not.

Now, if they offer Jarvis... then I'd jump on it.

San Jose just got way more than that.... You're kinda contradicting yourself here. The projected package from Carolina is proposed is much better.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Or Hamonic or Debrincat or as a 3rd party broker.

I think it’s been reported that we’re not moving Debrincat or Hamonic.

 

[bert]

I have serious doubts that we'll get as much as San Jose did for Meier if we wait until the summer.

Meier got the equivalent of 3-4 1st round picks.

There is absolutely no chance they get that in the summer.

Eh I disagree.

If we trade Debrincat today, we maybe get a 1st + Conditional 1st + B prospect + C prospect.
If we trade Debrincat next deadline, we maybe get a 1st + B prospect + C prospect.

Is it significantly less value? Not enough to push me to do it now. We're not getting the return that Meier got, because ADB is not as good as Meier. One is a 5'7, 165 lb winger on pace for 27 goals, the other is a 6'1, 220 lb winger on pace for 45 goals.

Honestly our better bet is hoping the DBC rebounds next year playing under, hopefully, a new coach. His value is already lessened right now just because of his play.

Also, not being talked about is that we probably can't retain any money this year based on where our ownership stands. That would complicate things significantly. Most contenders could not absorb 100% of the remainder of his cap hit.

San Jose got more than that. The conditional first has about a 75% chance of hitting and they got another first round pick of a player a 23 year old playing now that is effective and a B prospect that plays NHL games. You really seem to be ignoring this out of convenience.

 

[Ouroboros]

I think it’s been reported that we’re not moving Debrincat or Hamonic.

It has.

Seravalli has also suggested that the Sens are not interested in being 3rd party brokers despite their abundant cap space.

 

[bert]

Brossoit is now hurt Vegas is down 3 goalies. Trade them Talbot now. When one comes back and has to go on waivers pick them up.

I think it’s been reported that we’re not moving Debrincat or Hamonic.

Yeah I mean the GM is an idiot. To paint yourself into that corner is idiotic. But he is an idiot so what can ya do.

 

[Hale The Villain]

There is absolutely no chance they get that in the summer.

Yeah pretty much. I think Meier was going to get more than ADB regardless since he's had the better season and is a power forward, but it's simple to understand why he got so much.

Not only is he an RFA that an acquiring team hopes they can re-sign and keep long-term, but worst case scenario he's going to help a team go deep in the playoffs as a rental and then be traded in the summer to help recoup some of the assets given up.

Same reason why Jeannot got as much as he did. Tampa will get him for a playoff run and if he doesn't re-sign Tampa could probably deal him in the summer to recoup some of the picks they traded to get him.

Missing out on DeBrincat's value as a rental by trading him in the summer will almost certainly mean a lower return. It's just common sense.

 

[DaveMatthew]

San Jose got more than that. The conditional first has about a 75% chance of hitting and they got another first round pick of a player a 23 year old playing now that is effective and a B prospect that plays NHL games. You really seem to be ignoring this out of convenience.

Sure, but Meier is better than Debrincat. One is a 165lb winger on pace for 27 goals and the other is a 220lb winger on pace for 45 goals. We would have gotten less for DBC than San Jose for Meier even if we traded him yesterday.

And San Jose got:

1st
Conditional 1st
Mukhamadullin (B Prospect)
Okhotyuk (C Prospect)

That's what I suggested. I missed Zetterlund, my bad.

Maybe you rate the prospects better. But I'd compare Mukhamadullin to Kleven and Okhotyuk to Thomson. B and C prospects.

For where we are, it's not a return I'd be overly excited about. If we had tried to trade DBC to NJ, I would have wanted Siegenthaler + 1st. But that's not a deal they'd make today. They might make it in the summer though, when they'd have options to replace Siegenthaler.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm not sure i agree that Meier is better than Cat. They're about the same for me. Two first line wingers with slightly different games. Meier is scoring at a pace that Cat has already reached with Karlsson playing godly. Yeah Cat has had Kane feeding him the puck for most of his career, but lets not act like there's a significant gap between these two .They are both in the exact same tier in terms of ability and production