Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic]

[Cosmix]

We got Debrincat on a shitty contract situation, any trade we make will be a sign and trade.

I have high anxiety about this situation. I don't expect our team to get better; I expect worse.

 

[Ouroboros]

Holy crap Laughton isn't worth 17 OA, what is going on...

I don't think it's unreasonable. Picks in that range of the draft typically don't buy you all that much, and they almost never buy you decent players with term at a good cap number.

That's one thing that stands out to me when I look at LeBrun's top-30 trade bait list - there's almost nobody available with term. So perhaps you can get a slightly better player for 17+ other assets, but likely that player is a UFA next summer.

The logic around the deal makes sense but I hope the player we get from the trade isn't Kubalik.

Someone either younger that can fit in longer term or a player with more term so we don't take unnecessary risk again.

I can't really find a better player than Kubalik that I believe is realistic to expect as part of the return in a DeBrincat trade. He's a good fit for us for a number of reasons:

a) he has a pretty good track record of scoring at EV, which is important for us given that all of our PP1 slots are accounted for
b) good cap number and salary
c) does not have any trade protection

Not a lot of guys out there that can satisfy all those criteria, and many that do simply won't be available to us.

I don't see a team paying an asset premium just for the privilege of giving Alex DeBrincat an 8x8 contract that he'll have a difficult time justifying. He provided negative surplus value this season on a 6.4M cap hit. Is it even possible for this player to provide positive surplus value at 8M? Not so sure. How many teams will be even be willing to invest that kind of money into an undersized winger? The market is going to be soft.

I’d prefer the extra money after Laughton to go to a goalie.

I have Antti Raanta in there. I've added Laughton [3M], Kubalik [2.5M] and Raanta [3M] at about the price we'd have to pay DeBrincat on a 1 year contract.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't think it's unreasonable. Picks in that range of the draft typically don't buy you all that much, and they almost never buy you decent players with term at a good cap number.

That's one thing that stands out to me when I look at LeBrun's top-30 trade bait list - there's almost nobody available with term. So perhaps you can get a slightly better player for 17+ other assets, but likely that player is a UFA next summer.


I can't really find a better player than Kubalik that I believe is realistic to expect as part of the return in a DeBrincat trade. He's a good fit for us for a number of reasons:

a) he has a pretty good track record of scoring at EV, which is important for us given that all of our PP1 slots are accounted for
b) good cap number and salary
c) does not have any trade protection

Not a lot of guys out there that can satisfy all those criteria, and many that do simply won't be available to us.

I don't see a team paying an asset premium just for the privilege of giving Alex DeBrincat an 8x8 contract that he'll have a difficult time justifying. He provided negative surplus value this season on a 6.4M cap hit. Is it even possible for this player to provide positive surplus value at 8M? Not so sure. How many teams will be even be willing to invest that kind of money into an undersized winger? The market is going to be soft.


I have Antti Raanta in there. I've added Laughton [3M], Kubalik [2.5M] and Raanta [3M] at about the price we'd have to pay DeBrincat on a 1 year contract.

Giving first round picks for 30 year old third liners is a recipe for failure.

 

[Ouroboros]

Giving first round picks for 30 year old third liners is a recipe for failure.

Yeah, maybe. But so is keeping the pick and drafting bums like Tyler Boucher, Colin White, Logan Brown, Lassi Thomson, Shane Bowers, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Curtis Lazar.

Scott Laughton is head and shoulders better than 90% of the players the Sens have drafted in the mid-late 1st round over the last decade.

Whether it's a skill issue, a philosophical issue or something else entirely we have a fairly robust data set that suggests if the Sens get a pick between 10-32 they aren't likely to come away with a player.

So what should be done?

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah, maybe. But so is keeping the pick and drafting bums like Tyler Boucher, Colin White, Logan Brown, Lassi Thomson, Shane Bowers, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Curtis Lazar.

Scott Laughton is head and shoulders better than 90% of the players the Sens have drafted in the mid-late 1st round over the last decade.

Whether it's a skill issue, a philosophical issue or something else entirely we have a fairly robust data set that suggests if the Sens get a pick between 10-32 they aren't likely to come away with a player.

So what should be done?

What should be done? Well certainly not trading for a 30 yr old 3rd liner. Sign someone as a UFA for that role, maybe you over pay a little instead of getting a guy like him for 3 mil, but I'll take a Chabot or Karlsson every 5-10 years over 10 Laughtons, and in the mix I'll find a Greig, Foligno too.

Trading 17 OA for Laughton is like Bunting on the first pitch of the game.

 

[Sens in Process]

I don't think it's unreasonable. Picks in that range of the draft typically don't buy you all that much, and they almost never buy you decent players with term at a good cap number.

That's one thing that stands out to me when I look at LeBrun's top-30 trade bait list - there's almost nobody available with term. So perhaps you can get a slightly better player for 17+ other assets, but likely that player is a UFA next summer.


I can't really find a better player than Kubalik that I believe is realistic to expect as part of the return in a DeBrincat trade. He's a good fit for us for a number of reasons:

a) he has a pretty good track record of scoring at EV, which is important for us given that all of our PP1 slots are accounted for
b) good cap number and salary
c) does not have any trade protection

Not a lot of guys out there that can satisfy all those criteria, and many that do simply won't be available to us.

I don't see a team paying an asset premium just for the privilege of giving Alex DeBrincat an 8x8 contract that he'll have a difficult time justifying. He provided negative surplus value this season on a 6.4M cap hit. Is it even possible for this player to provide positive surplus value at 8M? Not so sure. How many teams will be even be willing to invest that kind of money into an undersized winger? The market is going to be soft.


I have Antti Raanta in there. I've added Laughton [3M], Kubalik [2.5M] and Raanta [3M] at about the price we'd have to pay DeBrincat on a 1 year contract.

Kubalik is the way to go if Detroit is the destination. And besides, the Sens could easily trade the 17th pick to move several spots down, pick up a 2nd and a 3rd, and then deal the late first round pick to Philly for Laughton. Getting Kubalik, Laughton and two picks (2nd, and 3rd) would be good haul.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I like Joseph's speed and think it would add to the attack on any of the top 3 lines. I don't know if Joseph can score 15 to 20 goals per season but based on his first few games with us he might be able to be a complementary winger and earn his salary; but not on the 4th line.

He'd be moved up to the third line quickly enough though. Injuries happen. I just want real depth personally.

 

[Slippy]

I get that Laughton shouldn't cost a 1st rd pick, but I think it should be that his contract that adds considerable value. 3 more years at only 3.0M is a great value for a middle 6 at 29 yo.

I am not saying definitely give up a big price; I simply don't know Laughton's game well enough, but seems like a solid guy kinda like Nick Paul, only better, I dunno.

 

[GCK]

I get that Laughton shouldn't cost a 1st rd pick, but I think it should be that his contract that adds considerable value. 3 more years at only 3.0M is a great value for a middle 6 at 29 yo.

I am not saying definitely give up a big price; I simply don't know Laughton's game well enough, but seems like a solid guy kinda like Nick Paul, only better, I dunno.

He’s much better than Nick Paul but still not worth a 1st.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Nick Paul has produced at a 32P/82GP average the last 3 seasons.

After Dorion refused to offer 3M to him on a medium-term deal he was traded for Joseph, who's now a negative value player after he somehow managed to get basically the same contract Paul was asking for, despite being a worse player.

Scott Laughton has produced at a 38P/82GP average the last 3 seasons, and we're talking about trading a 1st for him to play the same kind of role Paul would have played on this team for the same salary (3M) had he been re-signed to the reasonable extension he was asking for.

Oh and that's if we can get a mid-1st back by trading the guy who we just dealt a top 10 pick + a 2nd + 3rd to acquire less than a year ago.

Can't make this shit up.

I agree with your main points (1 - Paul/Joseph saga bungling & 2 - not trading anything more than a pick in the 25-40 range (and maybe a mid prospect or something)) but I think comparing Paul and Laughton is a bit unfair to Laughton. Laughton brings way more of a physical edge and makes quicker decisions offensively.

That said, your next post brings up a good point that is worth discussing: the absolutely huge number of $3-6mil mid-six forwards who may/will be on the market, including:
- Ehlers (2x6.0m)
- Schmaltz (3x5.85m)
- Henrique (1x5.825m)
- Mangiapane (2x5.8M)
- Mantha (1x5.7m)
- Schwartz (3x5.5m)
- Konecny (2x5.5m)
- Bjorkstrand (3x5.4m)
- Backlund (1x5.35m)
- RNH (6x5.125m)
- Granlund (2x5m)
- Pageau (3x5m)
- Bailey (1x5m)
- Garland (3x4.95)
- Lindholm (1x4.85)
- Olofsson (1x4.75m)
- Labanc (1x4.735m)
- Saad (3x4.5m)
- Wennberg (1x4.5m)
- Dvorak (2x4.45m)
- Toffoli (1x4.25m)
- Arvidsson (1x4.25m)
- Moore (5x4.2m)
- Beauvillier (1x4.15m)
- Roslovic (1x4m)
- Debrusk (1x4m)
- Iafallo (2x4m)
- Goodrow (4x3.64m)
- Faksa (2x3.25m)
- Kapanen (1x3.2m)
- Yamamoto (1x3.1m)
- Duclair (1x3m)
- Laughton (3x3m)

Quite a group, and it doesnt even account for everyon, such as negative value players who dont need to be traded + FAs + the inevitable off-the-radar guy who gets dealt. Obviously some of the guys listed are of no interest to us, but there's not a single guy on that list who I look at and say "yeah, he's not getting dealt this summer". I look at a guy like Goodrow, who may be available for next to nothing, and to me that makes a lot more sense than giving up Ostapchuk + or something for Laughton.

 

[aragorn]

It's interesting to see the support Paul is getting on here, I can remember defending him quite a bit during his time here & thought that most did not like him as a player & now he's the poster boy for all of Dorion's failures. Most expected Joseph to fill the role & add more offence which never materialized. I do agree that with the money that would go towards DBC they should be able to bring in a good #1 goalie & a decent player given how many good players could be available at a reasonable price. Asking a 1st for Laughton is quite high, but it also shows us the value those kind of players garner now especially after watching these playoffs.

I would still like to see them bring Formenton back given he is IMO that kind of player with speed & grit to his game & he can bring some offence, IMO he has 2nd line potential. Formenton could be great with Norris & Batherson on the 2nd line or be a good winger with Pinto & be a very good bottom six player. Sokolov would also be good for the bottom six to add some offence. They have an opportunity to put together at least three good lines for next season if they can fit the salaries into their budget.

To Philly: DeBrincat RW/LW, Joseph LW/RW, Thomson RD & (Brannstrom pick) or Merilainen G
To Ott: Hart G & Laughton LW

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
Laughton - Norris - Batherson
Formenton - Pinto - Sokolov
Jiri - Kastelic - Gauthier/Kelly

Chabot - Chychrun
Sanderson - Zub
Kleven - Hamonic/JBD

Hart - Forsberg/Sogaard

 

[Alex1234]

It’s going to be Detroit
It’s known since november

 

[BrawlFan]

When was the last time a 1st was traded for a goalie? That’s essentially the Hart convo. It’s absurd. You don’t trade first round picks for goalies or 3rd liners unless your Dubas.

Everybody shitting on Boucher better bookmark their posts when he’s our 3rd line RW that can move up to our second. Guys gonna be a player.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

When was the last time a 1st was traded for a goalie? That’s essentially the Hart convo. It’s absurd. You don’t trade first round picks for goalies or 3rd liners unless your Dubas.

Everybody shitting on Boucher better bookmark their posts when he’s our 3rd line RW that can move up to our second. Guys gonna be a player.

Dude is made of glass and can’t even stay healthy in college or in the junior leagues.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Dude is made of glass and can’t even stay healthy in college or in the junior leagues.

Lots of guys have been written off as glass who have totally gotten over their injury troubles by their mid20s. It’s a negative, for sure, but if that’s the only thing you think will keep him from being an NHLer then I don’t think it’s as cut and dry than you are saying

 

[BrawlFan]

Dude is made of glass and can’t even stay healthy in college or in the junior leagues.

Greig can have the same description. I like what I’ve seen in the WJHC and preseason games. If he’s somewhere in the middle of a clutterbuck and a Thompson (poor man’s obviously) we got a rare player that teams don’t like to trade. He will be an asset in the playoffs as early as next season potentially.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Greig can have the same description. I like what I’ve seen in the WJHC and preseason games. If he’s somewhere in the middle of a clutterbuck and a Thompson (poor man’s obviously) we got a rare player that teams don’t like to trade. He will be an asset in the playoffs as early as next season potentially.

Not even close to being compared to Greig. Greig played more games last season than Boucher has in the last 2 years combined. Greig has actually produced in every league he has played in which is something you can't even say about Boucher.

Sure the potential is there, but the dude hasn't even shown that potential in the junior leagues. He is closer to busting out than being Greig level prospect.

 

[BrawlFan]

Not even close to being compared to Greig. Greig played more games last season than Boucher has in the last 2 years combined. Greig has actually produced in every league he has played in which is something you can't even say about Boucher.

Sure the potential is there, but the dude hasn't even shown that potential in the junior leagues. He is closer to busting out than being Greig level prospect.

Greig won’t be able to last healthwise if he doesn’t transition his game or put on weight. The underlying issue of health is the same. Boucher needs to learn to either not be a hammer with no head or put on some more weight so that he can play his style and stay healthy.

Greig won’t be able to last healthwise if he doesn’t transition his game or put on weight. The underlying issue of health is the same. Boucher needs to learn to either not be a hammer with no head or put on some more weight so that he can play his style and stay healthy.

And I love greig. I think he’s Mike Richards 2.0 and I loved Richards. Could you imagine a team with a prime Bolland and Richards? Because that’s what Ottawa could have with Pinto and Greig.

But Bouch is severely underrated here. And it’s going to be a bad look IMO.

I also think Reinhardt could be as good as Kunitz in 3-4 years when Kunitz was on Anaheim. So perhaps I’m biased.

 

[Tragedy]

Lots of guys have been written off as glass who have totally gotten over their injury troubles by their mid20s. It’s a negative, for sure, but if that’s the only thing you think will keep him from being an NHLer then I don’t think it’s as cut and dry than you are saying

No, my issue is that he puts up points as a 19 year old at the same rate some 16/17 year olds do. Boucher should be a monster in the OHL with his size and draft pedigree but he just isn't.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

No, my issue is that he puts up points as a 19 year old at the same rate some 16/17 year olds do. Boucher should be a monster in the OHL with his size and draft pedigree but he just isn't.

Ok, but that's an entirely different argument.

 

[Tragedy]

Ok, but that's an entirely different argument.

Ok? My biggest concern is he can't play 2nd line minutes in the OHL when he's older and bigger than the rest of the kids. How the hell could anyone think he's going to do just that in the NHL

 

[bert]

I don't think it's unreasonable. Picks in that range of the draft typically don't buy you all that much, and they almost never buy you decent players with term at a good cap number.

That's one thing that stands out to me when I look at LeBrun's top-30 trade bait list - there's almost nobody available with term. So perhaps you can get a slightly better player for 17+ other assets, but likely that player is a UFA next summer.


I can't really find a better player than Kubalik that I believe is realistic to expect as part of the return in a DeBrincat trade. He's a good fit for us for a number of reasons:

a) he has a pretty good track record of scoring at EV, which is important for us given that all of our PP1 slots are accounted for
b) good cap number and salary
c) does not have any trade protection

Not a lot of guys out there that can satisfy all those criteria, and many that do simply won't be available to us.

I don't see a team paying an asset premium just for the privilege of giving Alex DeBrincat an 8x8 contract that he'll have a difficult time justifying. He provided negative surplus value this season on a 6.4M cap hit. Is it even possible for this player to provide positive surplus value at 8M? Not so sure. How many teams will be even be willing to invest that kind of money into an undersized winger? The market is going to be soft.


I have Antti Raanta in there. I've added Laughton [3M], Kubalik [2.5M] and Raanta [3M] at about the price we'd have to pay DeBrincat on a 1 year contract.

I cant imagine Raanta is the goalie they target with his injury history. Id hope they can do better than that for debrincat as well. Kubalik yuck. I hope they get Copp back in the deal. He's actually good and hard to play against.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Ok? My biggest concern is he can't play 2nd line minutes in the OHL when he's older and bigger than the rest of the kids. How the hell could anyone think he's going to do just that in the NHL

No-one knows, he was just under a ppg last year.
Lots freaked out at choosing 8 goal Brady, he won’t be Brady, but could become a third liner.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Garland just had his worst season since he was a rookie and he finished with 46 points, which is more than Laughton has produced in his best season.

Obviously isn't the same kind of two-way player, but if one is being given away for free or even with an asset attached and the other will cost a mid-late 1st + more, it's an easy decision.

If the Flyers were willing to accept Boucher + 2nd I'd strongly consider it.

 

[Senovision]

It’s going to be Detroit
It’s known since november

I knew it in October.
Couldn't resist.