Sensmileletsgo
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- Oct 22, 2018
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Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic]
- Thread starter Gee Wally
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HoweHullOrr
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- Oct 3, 2013
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Yes, I don't think it's undervaluing the player. It's more a case of his contract. A 1 year Qualifying Offer contract at $9 m is probably a consideration for potential suitors.
Got to hope (or think) Senator's will allow GMs to talk to the Debrincat camp about a contract/extension. Otherwise, one year before going to free agency could easily be a factor that effects how many teams would be interested in Debrincat's services.
I think Ottawa's cap situation is well worth noting as well. They have about $17 m of projected cap space to sign
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Sens Vader
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- Jan 23, 2016
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Philly seems like a good trade partner
Laughton and Hart would be great additions, Konecny too if available
Laughton and Hart would be great additions, Konecny too if available
HoweHullOrr
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If the Flyers are rebuilding which I believe is the case, they would want draft picks, good prospects or good, young ELC players (and their contracts). Debrincat does not seem to fit the mould of what a rebuilding team typically wants. The Senators don't have a 1st round pick this year (or a 2nd or 3rd round pick) and other than maybe Grieg, may or may not have young players that would be highly coveted by the Flyers. I'm not sure what else there is: Brannstrom, JBD, Ostapchuk maybe. Perhaps I've missed something though and I'm welcome to other ideas and/or specifics to a potential trade.
Edit - The other factor is that if keep Debrincat, there isn't a lot of cap room remaining to take on another (semi-expensive) addition per #3,952 above.
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BonHoonLayneCornell
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Ya it's going to be tough with the QO and him getting to choose his destination if he wants to force it. He may not even be willing to talk contract and choose to wait for UFA.Yes, I don't think it's undervaluing the player. It's more a case of his contract. A 1 year Qualifying Offer contract at $9 m is probably a consideration for potential suitors.
Got to hope (or think) Senator's will allow GMs to talk to the Debrincat camp about a contract/extension. Otherwise, one year before going to free agency could easily be a factor that effects how many teams would be interested in Debrincat's services.
I think Ottawa's cap situation is well worth noting as well. They have about $17 m of projected cap space to sign 12 players (for a 23-player roster). Plus, they need to sign a goalie unless they are willing to roll the dice with Sogaard. Even if the cap goes up to $85 m (versus $83.5 m), it's still tight if they sign Debrincat to $8 m/year and sign a decent goalie.
At this point, my expectations are low for the return we can expect. Re-signing him, whether wise or not, is not something I'm feeling optimistic about.
bert
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They're at 13 players under contract, which means only 10 players needed to be signed for 23 man roster. Of the spots where there's no one under contract, only DeBrincat's spot and possibly a goalie are ones that will require above average contracts. The rest are all third/fourth line spots and bottom pairing D spots.
Assen na yo!
HoweHullOrr
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Well, I went with the "ROSTER SIZE: 11/23" at the top of the page. I see now they are probably not counting the two LTIR contracts in the Roster Size part (field), although by adding the $ numbers up, they've adding the LTIR salaries into the total.
Nevertheless, if you think $17 m is a lot (or more than sufficient) to address 10 roster spots if Debrincat & another goalie is signed, then I guess we just have different ideas. That's OK, everyone is entitled to their opinion.
We also have Pinto to sign, and even if he gets a contract that is commensurate with his 10.2.c. status, he's likely not getting any less than $1.5 m (approx) which also leaves a little less to spread around.
Not saying the Senators will not be able to find a way of getting this done. But, they aren't going to have enough money to sign average contracts (your term) to fill those voids. They will be mostly league minimum type contracts if Debrincat, a goalie and Pinto are signed. So, the main idea or gist of my first post is still the same.
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bert
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He was -31 this year. Unless he is scoring he is a net negative. You can't pay a player that can't drive a line 8+ million. The team needs to trade him for futures and address the teams actual needs. Which is depth forwards that are good 5 on 5 that are hard to play against. Debrincat could be a good fit on a team that has a different roster construction than the sens currently have. The sens problem isn't their forward skill they have that. It's the rest that's the problem. With very little cap space he isn't a good fit here. Watching the playoffs its pretty evident what style of hockey is effective. Debrincat while a talented player is not very big, is not hard to play against and doesn't drive the play. A team with great possession metrics that has size but lacks finish is a good fit for him. That's not Ottawa's make up.
Oops.
Betrayed by your own words.
Your response to someone previously using the plus minus argument in a thread about Chabot and Fox.
So you cherry-pick a stat you admit you don't like out of context to frame the player, individually, as a net-negative of goal differential despite saying, and I quote, "we all know that's a team stat". Very fine work.
bert
Registered User
bert said:
I dont like the plus minus stat other than comparing it against a players own teamates
He was -31 second worst on the team. That's compared to his own teammates. Said that right in the post you quoted. Maybe cherry pick better next time.
The eye test matched the results. He isn't a good fit with the current roster construction. Do you believe a team should give 10% of their cap to a player that can't drive a line and gets caved in 5 on 5? Is at best the teams 4th or 5th best forward. Is there any wrong logic to that? If so please present a tangible argument. I suspect we won't see one, you'll probably deflect and start hurting insults. But hopefully I'm proven wrong.
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Masked
(Super/star)
I don't know what direction they take in goal but Pinto is not getting more than $1.5M unless they sign him long term. His QO is $874,125 and he's not making much more than that if they sign him to a one year deal. I'd expect he signs long term next year.
Outside of DeBrincat and a goalie I'd estimate the average salary for those 8 players to be around $900K. That's $7.2M leaving a little less than $10M for DeBrincat and a goalie. I'd see DeBrincat signing around $8M if he decides to stay. If he doesn't, they'll move him and all bets are off for salary projections.
Assen na yo!
DaveMatthew
Bring in Peter
Caved in 5v5?
Debrincat had a 50.50CF% and a 49.64xGF%. That's not amazing, and I agree he's not a player I'd commit $8M too, but it's not getting caved in.
From an eye-test perspective, Drake Batherson was the biggest liability, and laziest player, on that line last year. Shane Pinto went through the ups and downs you'd expect from a rookie.
So it's not like ADB was put in a great situation. It still boggles my mind that DJ didn't move him to the right-wing and try him with Tkachuk and Stützle.
If it was Batherson at $4.9M vs Debrincat at $7M, I'd probably still keep Debrincat and trade Batherson. But at 8M+, considering what we've already spent on forwards, you have to move on from Debrincat. He will, though, go somewhere else and score 35-40 goals several more times.
bert
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Yeah and batherson is coming off an injury and makes 4.9 million. He had a tough year no debate but he also adds a physical element Debrincat doesn't have. When you are -31 and average corsi that's getting caved in 5 on 5. So was Batherson but he isn't asking for double his salary. If he was I'd be saying the same thing. I don't think Batherson is done developing either. But that's a different discussion.
Your quoted post is there and you didn't say that. I think it's pretty clear you don't remember what you write because I posted 3 examples of you making the exact opposite argument. Move on and try to keep a consistent point of view. You wanna make a case for ADB not being worthy of whatever imaginary number you're calling the limit, then go ahead. Hopefully it'll be more coherent and consistent with your long-held beliefs than whatever word salad you spit out.
HoweHullOrr
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I had Debrincat at $8.0 m, goalie at $2.0 m, and Pinto at $1.5 m. So, that's $11.5 m for those three with about (a little less) $5.6 m to sign the remaining players.
10 players - 3 players = 7 players.
$5.6m/7 = $800k.
That is if all three of those assumptions turn out (that's a big IF considering law of probability). Cap situation seems very tight to me unless there's an increase to the cap ceiling.
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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Just checked, dropped for Canada and Mexico May 12, rest June 12.
No idea why it took more than a year longer than Canada.
bert
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Wtf are you talking about. You quoted it then I re-posted it. Truly unbelievable. You did exactly as predicted. Congratulations for yet again bringing absolutely nothing tangible to the table. I presented my argument you turned to lies and insults.
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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Well that’s not the gotcha you think it is.
For some reason you think saying plus minus is a team stat contradicts, saying plus minus should only be used to compare amongst teammates.
Both are true.
BonHoonLayneCornell
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bert
Registered User
Its a shame it derailed a good discussion. I personally dont think Debrincat at 8 million is a good fit in Ottawa with the current roster and the money can be better spent elsewhere. That doesnt mean he isnt a good fit somewhere else either. I personally dont love spending that much on wingers in general. If you do spend 8 + on a winger they need to be multi dimensional (two way player or bring a physical aspect) or a player that can drive a line and compete for an art ross.
Ottawa needs to get harder to play against in general. They have the top end skill they need to insulate it with more speed, grit and players that can finish their checks while contributing offensively.
trentmccleary
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I've read the trade proposals and have seen how upset Red Wings fans get, but I think DeBrincat going there makes the most sense.
They have a desperate need for a 1st liner. He would have been their 2nd leading scorer by 10 points last season.
They have lots of cap space.
He's the right age for their rebuild (ours too).
They have lots of picks this year (5 in the first 2 rounds).
He's from Michigan.
Players making that little tend to be kids or tweeners. That's a lot of people who are barely in the NHL. It's 40% of the roster. They're going to cost more than that. The #5-7 defensemen (Hamonic, Holden and Brannstrom) cost $5.2 million this past year. That's twice as much as the average mentioned above and it ignores the fact that Zaitsev was being $4.5.
They have a desperate need for a 1st liner. He would have been their 2nd leading scorer by 10 points last season.
They have lots of cap space.
He's the right age for their rebuild (ours too).
They have lots of picks this year (5 in the first 2 rounds).
He's from Michigan.
Players making that little tend to be kids or tweeners. That's a lot of people who are barely in the NHL. It's 40% of the roster. They're going to cost more than that. The #5-7 defensemen (Hamonic, Holden and Brannstrom) cost $5.2 million this past year. That's twice as much as the average mentioned above and it ignores the fact that Zaitsev was being $4.5.
Masked
(Super/star)
The players I expect taking those spots would be some combination of Formenton, Greig, Gambrell, Gauthier, Patrick Brown, Pinto, Smejkal, Brannstrom, JBD, Kleven, Thomson, and Hamonic. Of those only Hamonic might make significantly over $900k.
So, yes, I expect a combination of kids, tweeners and aging vets.
Assen na yo!
SensontheRush
Never said it was Sunshine
These playoffs are demonstrating to me IMO that we just need to keep this guy no matter what. He has a shot that can beat any goalie with pinpoint precision. I disagree on him not being a line driver; he was clearly that guy on the 2nd line, and really got no help in a developing Pinto and a recovering Batherson.
Scoring depth also means having 1st line quality players down the lineup, like Reinhart in FLA, not just really good 3rd liners on the 3rd and 4th line.
DbC is also a physical player on the dump. I'm sure you saw him deliver plenty of times a big hit on defenders down low. He also doesn't get blown up much, if at all. All I recall is that hit from Matthew Tkachuk on him when he was prone.
DbC is not railroading our ability to secure forward depth, assuming he comes in at $8m. He is not a Marner or RNH type player that is secretly useless, this guy scores goals. There is simply a bit of a cap crunch this year which opens up as early as next year.
We only got as close as we did to the playoffs this year due to the strength of our top two lines, despite missing Norris (who is even less of a line driver than DbC). If we trade DbC, it's a big step back.
HoweHullOrr
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Grieg $863k
Ostapchuk $825k
Formenton AAV was $888k
Thomson $863k
Mantinpalo $885k
Smejkal $870k
Brannstrom $900k
Kleven $916K
When you need to have 7 players that average around $800k per player, it's problematic when most of them will be over $850k. And 7 players is about 30% of the roster that will be low end players.
Plus, the three key players signings all have to come in on target (no slip ups). The goalie number was the average of about 10 free agent goalies excluding the top 3 or 4 salaried goalies (another poster did some good work on that a couple of months ago). That average was $2.1 m, but I rounded down to $2m btw.
The numbers are not being pulled from thin air here. It will get done, but things will be tight if the goal is to sign Debrincat, a goalie and Pinto. Of course, if the ceiling going up beyond $83.5 m will change the outlook. Would think it needs to go up to at least $85.5 m to make a decent difference though.
Ostapchuk $825k
Formenton AAV was $888k
Thomson $863k
Mantinpalo $885k
Smejkal $870k
Brannstrom $900k
Kleven $916K
When you need to have 7 players that average around $800k per player, it's problematic when most of them will be over $850k. And 7 players is about 30% of the roster that will be low end players.
Plus, the three key players signings all have to come in on target (no slip ups). The goalie number was the average of about 10 free agent goalies excluding the top 3 or 4 salaried goalies (another poster did some good work on that a couple of months ago). That average was $2.1 m, but I rounded down to $2m btw.
The numbers are not being pulled from thin air here. It will get done, but things will be tight if the goal is to sign Debrincat, a goalie and Pinto. Of course, if the ceiling going up beyond $83.5 m will change the outlook. Would think it needs to go up to at least $85.5 m to make a decent difference though.
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