Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic]

[Burrowsaurus]

They may not, which is why they would move him.

They know his value, they aren't morons

Look at Turris and Pheonix, they didn't like him, he was doing less than Laf, he returned a top prospect, of which the Sens right now don't have a comparable, and a 2nd

That was a long time ago. And turris didn’t just put up 0s across the board in a seven game series.

I think greig is definitely comparable to rundblad

 

[Senator Stanley]

That was a long time ago. And turris didn’t just put up 0s across the board in a seven game series.

I think greig is definitely comparable to rundblad

There are no true right or wrong answers here, but my sense is that Laf has more value today than Turris did when the Sens traded for him (I say this because Laf was a better prospect than Turris), and that Rundblad had more value than Greig does now (mostly because of Rundblad's higher-end upside as a big, mobile, highly skilled RHD).

 

[Bileur]

Despite being cleared, Murray doesn't even seem like an option for the Leafs next game. That leads me to believe that he'll almost certainly be bought out this summer, and they'll run with Samsonov/Woll next year. No chance they keep a $4.8M 3rd goalie.

That's big news for us as it'll open up just over $1.3M of cap space.

It blows my mind that he isn’t on LTIR.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Lyon.

something like
2.45x2

Lyon gets the NHL contract on a multi year after grinding his whole career.
There is risk for sure but there is also risk in acquiring a goalie who makes over 4-5 and they don't play up to it.

 

[Cosmix]

Despite being cleared, Murray doesn't even seem like an option for the Leafs next game. That leads me to believe that he'll almost certainly be bought out this summer, and they'll run with Samsonov/Woll next year. No chance they keep a $4.8M 3rd goalie.

That's big news for us as it'll open up just over $1.3M of cap space.

How would Toronto buying out Murray affect the Senators salary retention for Murray? Would the Senators also have to buy out their portion of Murray's future salary?

 

[BondraTime]

That was a long time ago. And turris didn’t just put up 0s across the board in a seven game series.

I think greig is definitely comparable to rundblad

Turris was older, had 0 points in 6 games at the time of his trade, demanded a moved out of Arizona to go along with a hold out, and a career high of 25 points

Rundblad, in his D+2, won SEL D of the year, SEL most assists, SEL most points for a D.

Laf, as short of the mark as he has been on what was thought to be his potential, has jumped in production as an 18/19/20 year old with 21->31->39 point seasons, hasn't forced NYR hand with a holdout and and trade demand.

Even Sam Bennett, in his D+7, was traded for 2 2nds, while having 1/7 seasons over 30 points and a career high of 36 in his rookie year, while telling the team he wanted to be traded.

The price for Laf will be high, but I'd think it will be well worth it for whomever pays up, as it was for both Turris and Bennett.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It blows my mind that he isn’t on LTIR.

There is no LTIR with less than 10 games to go in regular season. As LTIR is only for regular season, no cap in playoffs.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Despite being cleared, Murray doesn't even seem like an option for the Leafs next game. That leads me to believe that he'll almost certainly be bought out this summer, and they'll run with Samsonov/Woll next year. No chance they keep a $4.8M 3rd goalie.

That's big news for us as it'll open up just over $1.3M of cap space.

not sure if we save 1.3 in cap next year.

We are on the hook for 2 million of his 8 million in salary next year. Buyout is 2/3 of that, so that leaves about 670k in cap a year for 2 years, I believe.

 

[Micklebot]

Turris was older, had 0 points in 6 games at the time of his trade, demanded a moved out of Arizona to go along with a hold out, and a career high of 25 points

I think this is a bit misleading due to the lack context, Turris was holding out due to a dispute with his coach, and had looked very good in the playoffs the year prior. 0 pts in 6 games after holding out when everyone knew he was getting traded asap isn't really indicative of how the player was viewed around the league. His 25 pts in 65 gp is actually pretty similar in pace to Lafreniere this year once era adjusted.

Also, as for older, Turris would have been about 2 months older than Lafreniere his last season with ARZ.

 

[BondraTime]

I think this is a bit misleading due to the lack context, Turris was holding out due to a dispute with his coach, and had looked very good in the playoffs the year prior. 0 pts in 6 games after holding out when everyone knew he was getting traded asap isn't really indicative of how the player was viewed around the league. His 25 pts in 65 gp is actually pretty similar in pace to Lafreniere this year once era adjusted.

Also, as for older, Turris would have been about 2 months older than Lafreniere his last season with ARZ.

Let me rephrase.

Laf is going into his D+4, Turris was traded in his D+5.

Whatever reason Turris was holding out and requesting a trade has no bearing, it effects the value of the player. The 0 points in 6 games has about as much effect on his value as the 0 points in 7 games these playoffs for Laf, minimal/none. Laf looked great the season prior in the playoffs.

If Laf expresses a want to leave NY, and he holds out, he will come at a cheaper price than if that never happened.

 

[Bileur]

There is no LTIR with less than 10 games to go in regular season. As LTIR is only for regular season, no cap in playoffs.

I meant permanently, if I had a history of concussions, millions in the bank and a young family I wouldn’t be standing in there taking 100 mph frozen pucks.

 

[GCK]

not sure if we save 1.3 in cap next year.

We are on the hook for 2 million of his 8 million in salary next year. Buyout is 2/3 of that, so that leaves about 670k in cap a year for 2 years, I believe.

We’d save 1.3 next year and have a hit of 667K the year after

 

[Golden_Jet]

I meant permanently, if I had a history of concussions, millions in the bank and a young family I wouldn’t be standing in there taking 100 mph frozen pucks.

He’s been cleared to play. Can’t put yourself on LTIR. He would have to retire.

 

[Hale The Villain]

That was a long time ago. And turris didn’t just put up 0s across the board in a seven game series.

I think greig is definitely comparable to rundblad

Rundblad was definitely more highly thought of on HF, but I do think NHL scouts weren't as high on him as armchair scouts. It's definitely possible Greig is valued similarly by NHL GMs.

His highlight reel was unreal and his numbers as a young D in the SHL were unheard of, but his game wasn't translatable to the NHL level with his mediocre skating ability and lack of high-end hockey IQ to compensate.

I don't think I'd go any higher than Greig + 2nd or Greig + Boucher for Lafreniere.

 

[Golden_Jet]

We’d save 1.3 next year and have a hit of 667K the year after

Not sure I follow your math. Maybe show it, I showed mine, we agree on year 2, year 1 is the same hit in a buyout.

If leafs don’t buy him out his cap hit is 1.56 as capfriendly shows. So to me that’s just under 900k savings in year 1 and an extra 670k in year 2.

 

[Cosmix]

not sure if we save 1.3 in cap next year.

We are on the hook for 2 million of his 8 million in salary next year. Buyout is 2/3 of that, so that leaves about 670k in cap a year for 2 years, I believe.

I went to Capfriendly to see how the buyout would work.

They indicate that Murray could be bought out for 2/3 of his salary. Senators retained 25% of his salary. His salary for 2022-23 was $8M. His AAV was $6.250,000. If not bought out we would have a CapHit of $1,562,000 in 2023-24 and $0 in 2024-25

According to Capfriendly, we retained $1,562,000 in 2023-24. The buyout would cause Ottawa to have a CapHit of $229,167 in 2023-24 and $666,667 in 2024-25.

Therfore we would have a CapHit savings of $1,332,833 in 2023-24 and a new CapHit of $$666,667 in 2024-25.

I think my math is correct but I did not check it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Norris has done more in the AHL and NFL than Pinto and looks like a #2 C to me. I see Pinto as a number 3 center with potential to become a number 2 Center; not a number 1.

You have a typo, unless dual athlete.

 

[Cosmix]

You have a typo, unless dual athlete.

OK they have done the same amount in the NFL!

 

[Micklebot]

Let me rephrase.

Laf is going into his D+4, Turris was traded in his D+5.

Whatever reason Turris was holding out and requesting a trade has no bearing, it effects the value of the player. The 0 points in 6 games has about as much effect on his value as the 0 points in 7 games these playoffs for Laf, minimal/none. Laf looked great the season prior in the playoffs.

If Laf expresses a want to leave NY, and he holds out, he will come at a cheaper price than if that never happened.

When you get that far after the draft, D+5 vs D+4 is a meaningless distinction, they were 21 year olds with multiple years as pros, not kids coming out of junior programs.

Demanding a trade has more of an impact on trade value when the player has any control over his destination, as an RFA coming of their ELC it's not really doing much other than ensuring everyone knows he's available. If NYR are actually putting Laf on the market and making calls, I don't really see a big difference.

If NYR get offered a similar quality package to what we gave for Turris, I suspect they'd listen. But we certainly aren't getting him for Boucher and a second or whatever. I'm probably higher on Greig than you, I still think we'd have to add to Greig though, more than a second, but maybe not quite a first. Just my opinion,

 

[Golden_Jet]

I went to Capfriendly to see how the buyout would work.

They indicate that Murray could be bought out for 2/3 of his salary. Senators retained 25% of his salary. His salary for 2022-23 was $8M. His AAV was $6.250,000. If not bought out we would have a CapHit of $1,562,000 in 2023-24 and $0 in 2024-25

According to Capfriendly, we retained $1,562,000 in 2023-24. The buyout would cause Ottawa to have a CapHit of $229,167 in 2023-24 and $666,667 in 2024-25.

Therfore we would have a CapHit savings of $1,332,833 in 2023-24 and a new CapHit of $$666,667 in 2024-25.

I think my math is correct but I did not check it.

Ya just went to capfriendly for buyout calculator, no idea how they get the smaller number in year 1, but not complaining.

 

[Cosmix]

Ya just went to capfriendly for buyout calculator, no idea how they get the smaller number in year 1, but not complaining.

Me neither.

 

[Sun God Nika]

If Murray gets bought out that would be insane for us.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

If Murray gets bought out that would be insane for us.

Why.

Nvm saw the posts before yours explaining why

 

[GCK]

Not sure I follow your math. Maybe show it, I showed mine, we agree on year 2, year 1 is the same hit in a buyout.

If leafs don’t buy him out his cap hit is 1.56 as capfriendly shows. So to me that’s just under 900k savings in year 1 and an extra 670k in year 2.

8M salary next year.

8 x .667 = 5.33 is buyout cost
5.33 / 2 years = 2.66 is buyout cost by year

Cash owed 23/24
Pre buyout 8 - post buy out 2.66 = 5.33 savings

Pre buyout caphit 23/24 6.25 - 5.33 savings = 920K which is new 23/24 caphit.

Cash owed 24/25
Pre buyout 0 - post buy out 2.66 = negative 2.66

Pre buyout caphit 24/25 is 0 so 24/25 new caphit is 2.66

Sens retained 25%

23/24 cap hit
Leafs 688K
Sens 230K

24/25 cap hit
Leafs 2M
Sens 667K

There you go. Next time just use the cap friendly calculator to save me the keystrokes

 

[DaveMatthew]

I think the chances of resigning Debrincat went down significantly today. The guy never wanted to leave Chicago and now their “rebuild” will be significantly sped up. They’ll be back in addition mode this summer.

Maybe we can trade him back and get Lukas Reichel in return.