Rumor: Trade Rumor Thread XIII

[Ola]

The only way to contend is to have a better roster than at least 25 other teams.

How do you do that when all teams operate under the same cap?

1. For a short stint, not that long anymore at all, you have an ability to draft really good young players and contend while they are cheap. That can be one advantage and one way.

2. The other more obvious way is to sign players to long term deals, that by nature are market value when signed, but become cheap deals down the road.

For a long time now, we have refused to lock up any of our players long term. That has -- without any single doubt -- been a horrible misstake by Slats. His fixation with bridge contracts and what not is probably by far the biggest misstake he has done while being a GM in this league. All over the league, guys like Staal, Girardi, McD and co are locked up on 6-7 year deals worth around 4-5m per. With the cap set to explode, those teams with core players on cheap contracts will have a great advantage.

We gotta start sometime. Otherwise we just push the problem ahead of us. Its 6m per this time, next time it will be 7m per and then 8m per. It will never stop.

If you want to build for the future, we gotta start locking up our players long-term. I know many only care about the present and want to dump these guys right now to get more cap friendly deals, but that is only pushing the problem infront of us. Those cap-friendly options will get paid in a hurry too. Sometime you gotta take a step back to become better, and the only way to do that is to bite the bullet now and lock-up players now before the market-value goes up.

I mean, if we only push the problem infront of us and jump from "the most cap friendly deal at the moment" to the other, how will we ever be able to fit in good enough players to compete? I mean, just look at the current situation. We aren't good enough and we don't have enough room.

 

[haohmaru]

The Ranger have 3 games after the Olympic break. 3 games will determine the course for the next 7 years? Its 6 days bwtn the break ending and the deadline.

I would hope that management already has a plan in place as to what their maximum offers will be and what to do before the trade deadline if those offers don't seem like they are going to get it done.

Rangers lose big if these guys aren't signed or moved by the trade deadline.

 

[RangerBoy]

From: @LavoieRenaud
Sent: Jan 28, 2014 11:08a

Hearing lots of trade discussions between teams. Olympic trade freeze goes in effects February 7th. #nhl

sent via Twitter for BlackBerry
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/LavoieRenaud/status/428197972074328064

 

[bernmeister]

Something around Callahan and Staal/Girardi for O'Reilly + makes me very happy. If not, I am not helping them out.

I agree we shouldn't help them out for minimum and do any favors here.

I'm not sure OReilly is our best return.
He has some quality production, but his contract is not a bargain, and I sense a lot of me first there.

Is he our only best return?
Or can we get more.

I could be wrong but I think they really want Staal, LD
and SJ, with Boyle down, really needs Girardi, RD.

So the best scenario combos are....

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Agree with this. It will be interesting to watch should the Rangers make the playoffs.

I fear that even if we move on from round to round that our players will take a harsh beating. Can see multiple injuries gathering up as right now we're withstanding a lot of punishment and just playing through it with little-no response.

Even Carcillo has been neutered. I genuinely think that Vigneault is whole heartedly opposed to physicality bringing energy. It's not his style, it wasn't his style in Vancouver, and he's bringing a very passive (physical) style of hockey to NY.

What does that mean for Girardi and Callahan. What about McIlrath? AV likes durability, quick thinking, creativity, speed. Girardi and McIlrath don't excel in any of those 4 really, McIlrath much less than Girardi too in all of those regards. Where is their future on this team? As for Callahan, will Sather accept being bent over in a prison shower in order to bring him back... because that's what it looks like Callahan's agent wants.

Just don't see a physical style of hockey being played under this coach. And if it is, it'll be limited to the 4th line, like it is now. Not nearly enough for a full-time play off series, in my opinion.

 

[haveandare]

Ehhh not sure about that. I'm just not convinced Pittsburgh is built well for the playoffs. They haven't won against a good playoff team in years. They barely beat the Islanders last year, got absolutely abused by Boston (I mean, I expected at least one win). I dunno, I'd like our chances.

This team could maybe, maybe, beat Pitt in a 7 game series as they are now. This team minus Callahan and Girardi would have absolutely no chance.

 

[bernmeister]

I still think they'll keep one and let the other go. My gut says they will re-sign Girardi in the 5.5MM range, and let Callahan walk. Kevin Klein answered one question on the right side of the defense, but there are still many. McIlrath is the only RHD close in the organization and I'm very skeptical. Keep Girardi, and that becomes somewhat stabilized. If they do, I expect Stralman to walk (as much as I like him), and look for someone who can bring a little more of a speed/transitional game on the right side.

Only problem with both is keep or trade. In the middle of a playoff hunt, with how mediocre the east is, you have to keep both, even if you lose them for nothing in July. They are more valuable to this team than any NHL-ready pieces they get in return.

Slats will stall till the last minute, but at this point my thought is Cally and Girardi are traded.
Zuc will get 3 year deal, $10m total, w/bonus clauses, is my guess

 

[bernmeister]

Depends what happens with Ryan Miller, but I still think Callahan ends up on the Blues by the deadline.

With Steen's injuries, Morrow being pretty much cooked and Stewart extremely streaky, Callahan would be the ultimate luxury 2nd/3rd line winger for them, and would give their average PK a huge boost.

Callahan for Jaskin, '14 1st, low level prospect and/or pick based on resigning clause.

Would love to do Callahan + for Shatenkirk

 

[Son of Steinbrenner]

The Ranger have 3 games after the Olympic break. 3 games will determine the course for the next 7 years? Its 6 days bwtn the break ending and the deadline.

That's what you took from my post..lol

3 games will determine the course of the next 7 years. I bet when you typed that you had a real dramatic voice in your head.

No, but waiting until after the olympic break and using the complete body of work makes sense.

I know you need a deal today but I don't think you are going to get it. Do you really think the talent the team will get for Girardi and Callahan is going to somehow shape the team into a contender for the next 7 years?

So RB, What do the Rangers do if a team isn't willing to trade the Rangers pieces that will shape the next 7 years? Let's hear the RB plan! What do you think is going on behind the scenes? Re-read my original post and tell me where my rational into what the Rangers are doing is wrong.

 

[Ola]

Elliotte Friedman spoke to 2 NHL guys about a 90 cent or lower CDN. One guy expected the upper limit to be $1M less and the other said $1.5M less. $71M cap estimate. $69.5M-$70M. http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2014/01/nhl-gms-deal-with-double-trade-deadline.html

The USD is such a big currency that it is very stable despite actions taken by the fed.

Everyone wants to get their economy going. Canada has reduced its interest rates which will cause inflation which in its turn will get the economy going, at least no paper. With a lower currency, its also cheapr to buy Canadian products which will support Canadian producers and get the economy going. If you a half a year ago produced a product in Canada and sold it to the US while making 1 USD, you are making 1.1 USD today. Or you lower the price and sell more products. Inflation puts a downward pressure on a currency.

In the US, the fed is printing money. But, due to the size of the USD, the discovery of the schiffer gas (sp?), the weak Euro (lack of options), the USD is staying stronger than the loonie.

The loonie can easily recover in twelve month. The world economy is recovering, that will benefit Canada grately with a big oil and minning industry

Ie, don't expect the loonie to take down the cap over the coming 2-5 years. There is no reason to expect that. Canada doesn't have a financial crash or real estate crash or something. The loonie might not match the USD, but it will level out at around 0.9-0.95. Everyone knows that currency's also overreact. Its not a regulated market place, its more wild west type of trading. A lot of blancing etc.

Inflation is already picking up in Canada:
http://business.financialpost.com/2...-up-but-falls-short-of-bank-of-canada-target/

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

I agree we shouldn't help them out for minimum and do any favors here.

I'm not sure OReilly is our best return.
He has some quality production, but his contract is not a bargain, and I sense a lot of me first there.

Is he our only best return?
Or can we get more.

I could be wrong but I think they really want Staal, LD
and SJ, with Boyle down, really needs Girardi, RD.

So the best scenario combos are....

I don't think the best scenario combos are legit contenders. They're legit contenders because they don't usually make stupid moves. We should be looking for a very particular type of trade. A trade that gives proven and aging commodities for unproven and young risks. That's all it boils down to. The price to do that, for an opposing team, is inflated, because prospects are so unproven and have such a high failure rate. Why this would interest us is because if we hit the prospects out of the park, the trade will be a steal for us in the long run. The purpose of a trade like this isn't for it to be a fair deal... at first that's the appearance you would want... but it's to end up with the better end (like the gomez for mcdonough swap) in the long run.

The problems with the Rangers and making these trades are several:
1) They lack future foresight.
2) They don't have the best scouting department. It's not bad, just not the best, meaning that the chances we'll hit gold with the prospects we get is smaller than if we had better scouting.
3) They are committed to winning just in the now, and dealing with future when it becomes a reality.

So... I don't see much change on the way. I think we'll all be disappointed if we set our expectations that we'll actually act in a responsible manner this deadline.

 

[RangerBoy]

Next Friday is 10 days away. 11:59pm roster freeze. The deadline is right after the break ends. Its decision time for the Rangers. Girardi and Callahan will get what they want by waiting until the summer to make their deals. Kyper reported on NYE that Girardi was going to the market. Callahn told Brooks that he is willing to wait until after the season to sign a new contract. Bartlett told the same thing to stop coaching Pat. Wait until the summer. Brooks reported there being a wide gulf between the sides in both discussions. The Rangers already went beyond where they wanted to go with Lundqvist.

 

[OverTheCap]

Pittsburgh's injuries may have been a blessing in disguise. Their forechecking ability has really improved and they have shown that they can outwork an opponent instead of just relying on their talent. If take this mindset into the playoffs and balance their lineup with skill and hustle players, they will be a tough out. I haven't seen nearly enough consistency from the Rangers against Pitt (or any of the other top teams for that matter) to assume that they are capable of beating them in a 7-game series.

 

[Raspewtin]

I fear that even if we move on from round to round that our players will take a harsh beating. Can see multiple injuries gathering up as right now we're withstanding a lot of punishment and just playing through it with little-no response.

Even Carcillo has been neutered. I genuinely think that Vigneault is whole heartedly opposed to physicality bringing energy. It's not his style, it wasn't his style in Vancouver, and he's bringing a very passive (physical) style of hockey to NY.

What does that mean for Girardi and Callahan. What about McIlrath? AV likes durability, quick thinking, creativity, speed. Girardi and McIlrath don't excel in any of those 4 really, McIlrath much less than Girardi too in all of those regards. Where is their future on this team? As for Callahan, will Sather accept being bent over in a prison shower in order to bring him back... because that's what it looks like Callahan's agent wants.

Just don't see a physical style of hockey being played under this coach. And if it is, it'll be limited to the 4th line, like it is now. Not nearly enough for a full-time play off series, in my opinion.

We saw that last year, too. Micheal Haley was running around crushing everybody for a few games, then his nastiness fell off a cliff and he lost his spot. Brandon Mashinter didn't do a damn thing last year when he had the perfect opportunity. This has been a problem for a while now, I don't think it's AV.

 

[RGY]

From: @LavoieRenaud
Sent: Jan 28, 2014 11:08a

Hearing lots of trade discussions between teams. Olympic trade freeze goes in effects February 7th. #nhl

sent via Twitter for BlackBerry
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/LavoieRenaud/status/428197972074328064

I don't expect the rangers to be one of those teams.

 

[Fitzy]

The Phillips Curve has been debunked, Ola, but I do agree that Canada has a more stable economy at present, due in part to the sizeable nature of its banks. We can argue about economics elsewhere, at another time, though.

 

[Ola]

Elliotte Friedman spoke to 2 NHL guys about a 90 cent or lower CDN. One guy expected the upper limit to be $1M less and the other said $1.5M less. $71M cap estimate. $69.5M-$70M. http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/hockey/opinion/2014/01/nhl-gms-deal-with-double-trade-deadline.html

Thats the numbers I reported just recently, around a mil or a mill and a half.

If the loonie is down 10% on avg over the season: HRR is 1/3 from Canada. 1 / 10 x 1 / 3 = 1 / 30. Cap is half of HRR, 1 / 2 x 1 / 30 = 1 / 60

1 / 60 x 71m = 1.183m lower cap

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

That's what you took from my post..lol

3 games will determine the course of the next 7 years. I bet when you typed that you had a real dramatic voice in your head.

No, but waiting until after the olympic break and using the complete body of work makes sense.

I know you need a deal today but I don't think you are going to get it. Do you really think the talent the team will get for Girardi and Callahan is going to somehow shape the team into a contender for the next 7 years?

So RB, What do the Rangers do if a team isn't willing to trade the Rangers pieces that will shape the next 7 years? Let's hear the RB plan! What do you think is going on behind the scenes? Re-read my original post and tell me where my rational into what the Rangers are doing is wrong.

The RB plan happens to be:

Trade Girardi, trade Callahan, trade Staal, trade Zuccar........ and finally trade Henrik.

14 trades in total. Entirely new team.

 

[Mikos87]

Out of the following 7 UFAs currently on the roster I'd only trade one or 2 at the deadline since I want to win and compete in the playoffs.

Keep 2 for sure, maybe 3 and let the other 3-4 walk. If Sather is either too fat and lazy or golfing out there to make things happen then he should just retire and call it a day. Him being buddy buddy with James Dolan is why he has a job, and really needs to get in with the times before we see a scenario similar to Buffalo in 2007.

It's a 2 year re-tool at best when you're losing reliable minutes off your team, with bad UFA signings abound. We've seen incompetence year after year. They better not lose assets for nothing unless they plan on entering the McDavid sweepstakes next year and compete again in 2018.

Cally- Re-Sign 6 year @ 5.3-5.8M
G- Re-Sign 6 year @ 5.3-5.8M

Trade one of Boyle/Moore if the PK will hold up. As much as a commodity either would be at the deadline 2nd round pick plus for both. With Boyle perhaps getting a 1st and a prospect, they help the Rangers win now.

My guess is both stay at the deadline, and Boyle walks at the end of the season on a big time deal for him.

Pouliot- Walk. GTFO. Sleep through 40 games, flash signs of competence for 15 games, before slowly waifing again. I only say walk because there isn't going to be an upgrade for the 3rd line LW in the minors, otherwise I move him right now.

If JT Miller's offense translated at the NHL level in JT's call ups, I'd have him in the line up, but since it hasn't and Lindberg hasn't been playing with confidence, it saddens me to say the Benny Poo is the best option.

Perhaps when Dorsett is back, one of Boyle/Moore move up to the 3rd line. Maybe Moore pushing Brassard to LW to get some defensive presence on that line.

Carcillo- Walk. Been great here, providing a spark, and genuinely adding a tough presence in a 4th line role to let Moore and Boyle do their jobs effectively. Dorsett is a reactionary fighter.

Carcillo's got enough crazy in him to initiate and distract guys, while Dorsett is someone that talks back. Twigy is a better skater and player with the puck. I would love to see both on the same line and see if they can bring an element that the team lacks.

Stralman- If I were the Rangers I would make Stralman a fair offer with term. He has a young family so term would be important for him. 4 yr. @ 3.2 max. If he says no, then you have to move on. The thing with Stralman is that he hasn't panned out anywhere else... why would he want to move?

Moore- I think he's been playing great as of late, and would like to re-sign him, but man oh man would I prefer grit, toughness, and a RH 4th line center. If he comes cheap, sign him.

UFAs I target:

Derek Engylland: can PK, tough as nails, play RW, RD. Powerforward build, or tough guy defensive defenseman build in a bottom line role. Hurt Pits by doing so too.

Joe Vitale: Shot blocking, PK Center. RH shot, good on draws. Fast skater with grit. Replacement for Boyle. Doesn't bring size, but is a very solid 4th liner. A what he is kind of guy.

I'd also look at trading for a guy like Matt Hendricks for the 4th line. Tough, can skate, make plays.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

I don't expect the rangers to be one of those teams.

Why? Last Olympic freeze they made a splash right before it, I believe.

 

[Fitzy]

I like Boyle, but I don't expect him to return unless he agrees to a paycut. His offense is completely gone, as is his offensive confidence.

 

[Blue Blooded]

To me, Zuccarello and Strålman are the priorities to get signed because no matter how the cap moves in the future - they are both significantly undervalued by the market.

Girardi and Callahan are both overvalued at the moment which makes them less of a priority, but as Ola says - their contracts may end up not half bad if the cap skyrockets.

If we can get Zucc and Strålman on long-term deals, those contracts will likely be enormous steals in a few seasons.

I'm still really pissed about the MDZ trade though, talk about wasting an asset.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

I like Boyle, but I don't expect him to return unless he agrees to a paycut. His offense is completely gone, as is his offensive confidence.

I don't think a paycut is in order, but I also don't think a gross increase is in order either.

Max I'd agree to resign him is for 2-3 years @ 2.5 per. I think a fair deal would be resigning at the contract hit he has now. Bargain would be at 1.5/yr.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

To me, Zuccarello and Strålman are the priorities to get signed because no matter how the cap moves in the future - they are both significantly undervalued by the market.

Girardi and Callahan are both overvalued at the moment which makes them less of a priority, but as Ola says - their contracts may end up not half bad if the cap skyrockets.

If we can get Zucc and Strålman on long-term deals, those contracts will likely be enormous steals in a few seasons.

I'm still really pissed about the MDZ trade though, talk about wasting an asset.

The only reason I'm upset with the MDZ trade is because Sather could have robbed a team that coveted him merely a season and a half ago... and chose to do no such thing.

 

[Fitzy]

2.5 is way too much for a guy who was a Tortorella player, and is now a 4th line winger who doesn't ever score or fight.

You can find a faster, more effective PK guy for 1/3rd that price. Take Dom Moore or Darrell Powe.