HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #88: 2024 Off-Season Thread

[Lafleurs Guy]

Eh, if the argument is that nearly everything goes right then Montreal may compete for the playoffs isn't really a great selling point, since I'd argue there isn't a team in the NHL that couldn't make that argument. Maybe San Jose, but that's it.

Montreal was one of the worst teams offensively AND defensively last season. And its unreasonable to expect rapid and consistent organic growth. And notwithstanding the bad injuries they had to deal with last season, it wasn't like 2021-2023 when they were the most injured team in the NHL.

Next season isn't about making the playoffs or even contending the playoffs. Its about trying to play meaningful games and having more young players lay claim to roles on the roster or demonstrating growth that they could lead there. 2025-2026 is the season Montreal will start pushing for the playoffs and beyond - once they start graduating their blue chip prospects on a more permanent basis and guys get more experience.

This is the right way to look at the season.

I think we’ll improve in the standings but be on the outside looking in. I’m very optimistic about our second line. IF they stay healthy. I think our scoring will improve but D will be our undoing.

 

[DAChampion]

This is the right way to look at the season.

I think we’ll improve in the standings but be on the outside looking in. I’m very optimistic about our second line. IF they stay healthy. I think our scoring will improve but D will be our undoing.

Some math help,

The second line doesn't just fall apart if there's an injury on the second line.

It also falls apart if there's an injury on the first line.

The odds of a lot of lost time in the top six is close to 100%, and the Habs have no third liber that can rise to the occasion.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Some math help,

The second line doesn't just fall apart if there's an injury on the second line.

It also falls apart if there's an injury on the first line.

The odds of a lot of lost time in the top six is close to 100%, and the Habs have no third liber that can rise to the occasion.

There are injuries and then there are injuries.

Let's just hope we don't lose Dach for a whole season again.

We're one year away from Demidov. He'll slot in on the top six and then Roy or Newhook will slide down with Beck. Then there's Hage. It's looking good for the future.

 

[Scintillating10]

I believe that was the situation before Philly bought out the contract outright but I'm not certain of that.

I often think of Michkov and Demidov on Habs. Be most offensive firepower in our 100 year history. Combined with our first line.

 

[Tyson]

I often think of Michkov and Demidov on Habs. Be most offensive firepower in our 100 year history. Combined with our first line.

You don't know much about the Habs of the 70's do you? Shutt, Lafleur, Cournoyer, Lemaire, Larouche, Lapointe, Robinson and Savard to name a few but yeah...two unproven young players would make them eclipse 100 years of Habs offensive history....ok

 

[Spring in Fialta]

If Kent could acquire Jarvis for Xhekaj or Mercer for Struble, he would have agreed long time ago. Like he wouldn’t even negotiate. He’d just say yes and finalize the trade before the other GM gets fired.

I genuinely don't understand where people come up with the idea that Xhekaj for Jarvis or Struble for Mercer are any sort of realistic idea or that we'd even be taking a 'risk'.

 

[jaffy27]

Some math help,

The second line doesn't just fall apart if there's an injury on the second line.

It also falls apart if there's an injury on the first line.

The odds of a lot of lost time in the top six is close to 100%, and the Habs have no third liber that can rise to the occasion.

No problem with injuries, they happen, you just don’t expect missing 80 games like Dach last year or 600 man games lost from a few years ago.

If we can get 70+ games from all our top 6 guys we should finish in that 9-13 range (draft position)

 

[DAChampion]

If we can get 70+ games from all our top 6 guys we should finish in that 9-13 range (draft position)

How often does that happen?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

How often does that happen?

For us?

Almost never.

Honestly though, you shouldn't expect the kinds of injuries we've had. It's been ridiculous.

Yes, there will be injuries. If it happens, Gallagher moves up. Ideal? No. But we're a few years away from having the kind of offensive depth that will relegate players like him to the bottom six regardless of injury. I still feel good about our top six.

 

[Trabdy2]

Our top 6 is weak if you have Newhook, Roy and Dach in it. This isn’t worth debating. None of the 3 have proven themselves to be top 6 material.

What are we actually arguing here? That they might me? Well, they might not be too.

I feel confident that Dach will show this year that he is/will be good enough to fit in as a 2nd line center on a competitive roster. As for Newhook and Roy, the jury is still out for me. These are both still young players with some runway left, and Newhook showed some strong promise late last year. However, projecting both Newhook and Roy to be bonafide competitive 2nd liners to me seems to be too optimistic at this point.

The good thing is we probably don't need both, or either, of them to make it into a Top 6 role as we build our competitive roster. We have Demidov, Hage and some other hopefuls that should be able to barge into the Top 6 to play with Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Caufield and Dach in time. That would push Newhook and Roy onto our 3rd line, where they may be better suited.

 

[Beer and Chips]

For us?

Almost never.

Honestly though, you shouldn't expect the kinds of injuries we've had. It's been ridiculous.

Yes, there will be injuries. If it happens, Gallagher moves up. Ideal? No. But we're a few years away from having the kind of offensive depth that will relegate players like him to the bottom six regardless of injury. I still feel good about our top six.

I do expect serious key injuries with players and prospects, it should be added to death and taxes.

 

[McGees]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815374250535981181

Only if we trade for another top 6 do we sniff a playoff battle.
We upgraded nothing this offseason.
Yes some young players will take a small step and healthy Dach will help...but we also snuck into like 40 overtimes for loser points.
With the team we have, I see us picking around 8-12 next year, but without a trade, people should stop talking playoffs.

 

[McGees]

The Habs PP will be top-10 IMO w Hutson as QB, and 3-on-3 should be significantly improved which will have a positive combined impact on increased offense

This doesn’t even take into account an acquisition which remains highly probable between now & camp

You really think MSL give Hutson PP1 time over 40min Matheson?

 

[salbutera]

Only if we trade for another top 6 do we sniff a playoff battle.
We upgraded nothing this offseason.
Yes some young players will take a small step and healthy Dach will help...but we also snuck into like 40 overtimes for loser points.
With the team we have, I see us picking around 8-12 next year, but without a trade, people should stop talking playoffs.

How many of those OTs & 1G games would’ve been 2pts w Dach + PP upgrade? Btw - they didn’t “sneak in” the team for all its faults played hard game in / game out

You really think MSL give Hutson PP1 time over 40min Matheson?

View attachment 896378

I’d be shocked if Hutson isn’t PP1 QB by US Thanksgiving at the very latest. The push towards Hughes’ & MSLs dream scenario of positionless hockey I expect to accelerate significantly this season.

Also load management factor - Matheson most effective when used for 20-21TOI not 25+

Additionally - Anderson will have a rebound back to his standard 20-23G pace

 

[jaffy27]

How often does that happen?

Probably more often then losing top 6 guys every year for 50+ games

 

[Captain Mountain]

How many of those OTs & 1G games would’ve been 2pts w Dach + PP upgrade?

How many of those overtimes and one goal games would have been zero points without insane goaltending and lucky goals? I was hyped on Dach's potential growth, but he's never hit 40 points in a season, lets not pretend that he'd have some massive effect.

Montreal's expected points was lower than their actual points. Even ignoring any "advanced" stats and just looking at raw goal differential.

 

[jaffy27]

How many of those OTs & 1G games would’ve been 2pts w Dach + PP upgrade? Btw - they didn’t “sneak in” the team for all its faults played hard game in / game out


I’d be shocked if Hutson isn’t PP1 QB by US Thanksgiving at the very latest. The push towards Hughes’ & MSLs dream scenario of positionless hockey I expect to accelerate significantly this season.

Also load management factor - Matheson most effective when used for 20-21TOI not 25+

Is this an opinion or fact?

Honest question

 

[salbutera]

How many of those overtimes and one goal games would have been zero points without insane goaltending and lucky goals? I was hyped on Dach's potential growth, but he's never hit 40 points in a season, lets not pretend that he'd have some massive effect.

Montreal's expected points was lower than their actual points. Even ignoring any "advanced" stats and just looking at raw goal differential.

Courtesy of The Athletic:

As for goaltending, Sam Montembeault was 10th in the NHL in goals saved above expected in all situations last season by Evolving Hockey’s model, and Cayden Primeau was 27th in just 23 games played.

G though good, I wouldn’t qualify as “insane”, with high probability of repeatability (Evolving Hockey ranking GSAx)

Is this an opinion or fact?

Honest question

Opinion

 

[Sterling Archer]

Can PHI even do that? Teams are allowed to do this with other leagues but I'm in the dark with the NHL-KHL relationship and if there's a formal understanding. Sending money to Russia is unfortunately difficult enough as it is under the current world regime, I don't think the Flyers can send money themselves directly to SKA...

Bill Daly says no, but apparently they did, so there's that...

 

[Miller Time]

Eh, if the argument is that nearly everything goes right then Montreal may compete for the playoffs isn't really a great selling point, since I'd argue there isn't a team in the NHL that couldn't make that argument. Maybe San Jose, but that's it.

Indeed.
That's the case for any team outside the contenders... And even a contender can end up outside looking in if enough things go wrong.

Not sure it was meant to be a "selling point".. just stated some facts.

Montreal was one of the worst teams offensively AND defensively last season. And its unreasonable to expect rapid and consistent organic growth. And notwithstanding the bad injuries they had to deal with last season, it wasn't like 2021-2023 when they were the most injured team in the NHL.

It realistic to expect a bigger "growth" curve from a very young roster relative to an older/more veteran roster.

U25 players have more room to grow than 30+ players.

We were yet again a top 5 team in man games lost. That's a big reason why our top forward ice time last year featured 3 guys whose level of play should've had them bottom 6.

Back in 2012, when MB took over, we went from a bottom 3 finish to division winner... Only external adds were bouillon, Armstrong & prust + rookies Gally & Galch.

Big difference was that we went from leading league in games lost to bottom tier/better than average health.

People underestimate what a big impact it has, especially on a roster that isn't contender-level depth.

Next season isn't about making the playoffs or even contending the playoffs. Its about trying to play meaningful games and having more young players lay claim to roles on the roster or demonstrating growth that they could lead there. 2025-2026 is the season Montreal will start pushing for the playoffs and beyond - once they start graduating their blue chip prospects on a more permanent basis and guys get more experience.

Sure. Same as last year... But with greater expectations fairly resting on the shoulders of:
Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf, Dach, Newhook, Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron, Roy, Monty & Primeau.

Everyone of those players is quite reasonably expected to be better next season. Not all will, and injuries will possibly rear their ugly head... But as a core roster of U25 players, growth at the group level should absolutely be expected.

I suspect that is precisely what KH believes and why he is being sincere when he states that they expect to be better this coming season even as he hasn't made any external additions (& actually traded away a vet for a pick in moving Kovacevic).

 

[Scintillating10]

You don't know much about the Habs of the 70's do you? Shutt, Lafleur, Cournoyer, Lemaire, Larouche, Lapointe, Robinson and Savard to name a few but yeah...two unproven young players would make them eclipse 100 years of Habs offensive history....ok

They be about the same

 

[ReHabs]

Some math help,

The second line doesn't just fall apart if there's an injury on the second line.

It also falls apart if there's an injury on the first line.

The odds of a lot of lost time in the top six is close to 100%, and the Habs have no third liber that can rise to the occasion.

I’ve gotten into this discussion with Lafleurs Guy and it has gone nowhere. They simply do not believe that good depth means having top6 worthy players on your third line.

Now also consider that there’s no guarantee Joshua Roy even makes the team out of training camp…

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I’ve gotten into this discussion with Lafleurs Guy and it has gone nowhere. They simply do not believe that good depth means having top6 worthy players on your third line.

Nobody has said this.

What I said was that we need to stay patient. That depth is on its way. Short circuiting the development of those players is not a good idea.

Getting a Laine or something like that to fight for 8th place doesn’t make sense.

We are unlikely to make the playoffs this year. It’s a season for development. Accept it.

Now also consider that there’s no guarantee Joshua Roy even makes the team out of training camp…

Even if he doesn’t, we plug in a Gallagher or someone else. We’ve got two solid players on the second as is and we may put Caufield with Dach.

You keep wanting quick fixes for short term gains. It’s not the right way to do things.

 

[Rapala]

How many of those OTs & 1G games would’ve been 2pts w Dach + PP upgrade? Btw - they didn’t “sneak in” the team for all its faults played hard game in / game out


I’d be shocked if Hutson isn’t PP1 QB by US Thanksgiving at the very latest. The push towards Hughes’ & MSLs dream scenario of positionless hockey I expect to accelerate significantly this season.

Also load management factor - Matheson most effective when used for 20-21TOI not 25+

Additionally - Anderson will have a rebound back to his standard 20-23G pace
View attachment 896380

Or 4 years is his shelf life in any given situation and he needs fresh air.
Personally I'm worried he won't do well in an unstructured environment.
Talk about lost this dude was by far the deepest in the woods.

 

[Egresch]

How many of those OTs & 1G games would’ve been 2pts w Dach + PP upgrade? Btw - they didn’t “sneak in” the team for all its faults played hard game in / game out


I’d be shocked if Hutson isn’t PP1 QB by US Thanksgiving at the very latest. The push towards Hughes’ & MSLs dream scenario of positionless hockey I expect to accelerate significantly this season.

Also load management factor - Matheson most effective when used for 20-21TOI not 25+

Additionally - Anderson will have a rebound back to his standard 20-23G pace
View attachment 896380

Anderson will never have 20 goals in Habs jersey. He had 20 playing with Suzuki on the 1st line and PP1. He will hopefully never get there again.