HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #88: 2024 Off-Season Thread

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Miller Time

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Allen actually "stole" pretty much every win he had as a Hab.
Interesting. Not the way I'd describe his play with the Habs over the past 2 seasons... Especially relative to Monty's performance behind the same roster.

Analytics is very useful as a predictive tool, how useful it is is a different story (and which data is most useful). I don't need analytics to know that Montreal got amazing goaltending in a ridiculous number of their wins and that I'm not expecting that to be as good going forward.
Agree to disagree here.
And we have a lot of evidence that for the vast majority of players, their peak is hit at 24/25.
Please do share.
In particular controlled for players who play as many or more games after age 24/25.

At least offensively. Defensively is another story, but I'm not interested in setting exceptions of improvement on players that have already demonstrated they can be contributors on a contender. If Suzuki remains at the level of a 70-80 point two-way center and Montembault remains at the level of well above average platoon goalie, I will be more than satisfied. I want to see Caufield mesh his improved all around play from last season with his goal scoring from 2021 and 2022-2023. I also want to see health and growth from the other names mentioned who still have rawness to their game.
All fair.

Assuming those "gates", I'd still comfortably have Montreal in gate 1. If for no other reason that I can't justify placing them ahead of any team in the East and would only put a couple of teams in the same tier.
Quite clearly we have different assessments of our roster strength at this time. Will be interesting to revisit a year from now...

Only Columbus finished behind Montreal and when it comes to young NHLers/prospects expected to graduate, they can go blow for blow with Montreal and then some, and have better veteran support.
Gaudreau, Monahan, Werenski & Jenner are certainly better vets than we have in place. Perhaps a toss up in the U25 group, though I'd argue our group is deeper and better today than their group.

The continuity & culture aspects weigh heavily in our favor. Evanson starts today and remains to be seen how quickly he's able to get them rowing in the right direction.

Of the teams who finished ahead of Montreal, there's a mix of teams who are further along with their rebuilds (Buffalo/Ottawa/Detroit/NJ), teams still firmly in the win now with a better established core, and the Flyers. Absent putting on rose coloured glasses, It wouldn't be a shock to see Montreal finish in "gate 2", but there are enough teams that I have ahead of Montreal that I'm not expecting it.
Fair enough.

I agree that Buffalo & Ottawa "should" be better, on paper. Same with Utah in the West.

I think Anh, SJ & Chicago will be at the bottom of the standings this year, the West again being represented heavier at the bottom.

Calgary, Philly, Seattle, CBJ, Wash & Pitt are the teams I think we'll be dancing with all year.

If, and it's a big "if" we stay healthy, I see us staying ahead of most of these teams and battling fiercely with Ott, Buff, NYI & Detroit for the last WC spot (Fla, Boston, TB, Toronto, NYR, NJ, Carolina being the 7 likely locks).

But, thats why they play the games!
 

Miller Time

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No, stop with the bullshit strawman please. Some are denying reality and claiming the 2nd line is good. It isn’t, that was my only argument. Nowhere did I suggest we sign any of those bums.

4-5-6 forwards (pts) *total for season

Avs
Nichuskin (53) Ross (40) Lekhonen (34)

Panthers
Verhaghe (70) Bennett (40) Rodrigues (39)

Oilers
RNH (67) Kane (40) Foegel (41)

Canes
Svechnikov (52) Necas (53) Noesen (38)

Habs
Monahan (35) Newhook (34) Gally (31)

From a pts pov, I'm not sure it's fair to argue definitively that our 2nd line is "bad" as of today. Unproven? Sure. But if healthy, what do you think a reasonable pts expectation is for Dach & Newhook?

With no improvement, just plateau + health based on previous season pace (2yrs for Dach)

Newhook = 51pts
Dach = 54pts

If healthy & they improve at all, we're talking 60pt+ contributions...

If that's our 2nd line, plus any of Gally/Roy/Anderson/Armia in the 30-35 range, that's a 2nd line output on par with some of the best offensive teams in the league last year...

Availability is a "skill", to be sure, but on paper the 2nd line talent in house is far from "bad".
 
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DAChampion

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I’ve gotten into this discussion with Lafleurs Guy and it has gone nowhere. They simply do not believe that good depth means having top6 worthy players on your third line.

Now also consider that there’s no guarantee Joshua Roy even makes the team out of training camp…

I think Roy will make the team, they need to bring in prospects in forward. I don't actually know how good Roy will be, but I think it's clear that he's earned a legitimate chance, and that they should find out how good he is. The only way to do that is to let him play. This management has a good track record of giving young players a chance.

But we don't know if the Roy of 2025 will be an effective NHLer, or someone like Barron, who is elite in the AHL but struggles in the NHL.

I think that even if the team is healthy, they need one more good forward to be in the playoffs conversation.
 

Lafleurs Guy

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If your most proven forward on your 2nd line is Newhook it isn’t just weak, but extremely weak. I’ve argued Suzuki would flirt with 90 points once we get a second line.

Our top 6 as it currently stands, sucks.
Nah. It's pretty good.

Two young players who paced for 50 plus and are coming into their prime. That's a good second line. I like Roy's upside too. I think they'll prove it.

As long as they can stay healthy.
 
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Lafleurs Guy

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I think Roy will make the team, they need to bring in prospects in forward. I don't actually know how good Roy will be, but I think it's clear that he's earned a legitimate chance, and that they should find out how good he is. The only way to do that is to let him play. This management has a good track record of giving young players a chance.

But we don't know if the Roy of 2025 will be an effective NHLer, or someone like Barron, who is elite in the AHL but struggles in the NHL.

I think that even if the team is healthy, they need one more good forward to be in the playoffs conversation.
Looking solely at the season coming up, I'd say our blueline is in much worse shape than the forwards short term. Guhle still on his wrong side, Huston a raw rookie. And I suspect we may see Mailloux and even RB come up at some point.

Super green, inexperienced blue line.

I also think our goalies played above their heads last year. And the D isn't going to help. Our main problem will be keeping the puck out of the net. That's why we're going to miss the playoffs.

You made a good point earlier with injuries. They will happen and we don't have offensive depth to cover up. But as is, I like our top six. If they're healthy, we will score a lot more goals this year. And Hutson will also help with that.
 

DAChampion

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Looking solely at the season coming up, I'd say our blueline is in much worse shape than the forwards short term. Guhle still on his wrong side, Huston a raw rookie. And I suspect we may see Mailloux and even RB come up at some point.

Super green, inexperienced blue line.

I also think our goalies played above their heads last year. And the D isn't going to help. Our main problem will be keeping the puck out of the net. That's why we're going to miss the playoffs.

You made a good point earlier with injuries. They will happen and we don't have offensive depth to cover up. But as is, I like our top six. If they're healthy, we will score a lot more goals this year. And Hutson will also help with that.

I think the starting D will be something like:

Matheson-Guhle
Struble-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Harris

It's not great but it's not horrible. Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, an Engstrom should only see NHL time when there are injuries, I hope they simmer and dominate in the AHL all year or at least until the deadline.

I think the goalies can perform at an NHL average level.
 

Lafleurs Guy

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I think the starting D will be something like:

Matheson-Guhle
Struble-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Harris

It's not great but it's not horrible. Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, an Engstrom should only see NHL time when there are injuries, I hope they simmer and dominate in the AHL all year or at least until the deadline.

I think the goalies can perform at an NHL average level.
I think we'll see Mailloux at some point and wouldn't be surprised if RB comes in near the end of the year.
 

Tyson

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I think the starting D will be something like:

Matheson-Guhle
Struble-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Harris

It's not great but it's not horrible. Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, an Engstrom should only see NHL time when there are injuries, I hope they simmer and dominate in the AHL all year or at least until the deadline.

I think the goalies can perform at an NHL average level.
One thing is a given...injuries will happen so I expect we will see just about every young D except maybe Engstrom.
 
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HabzSauce

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While I understand the thought process, I don't like the idea of trading for a top 6 player this year (unless they are elite).

Reason being we have too much young guns coming up after this season in 2025/2026. These kids will need ice time. Even if we grab just ONE top 6 player, it will block any of our prospects from top 6 time. Which I don't think is smart while we are in a transition year while our prospects are still developing.

This is what our roster could be in 2025, and this is excluding Anderson and Gallagher:

Slaf - Suzuki - Demidov
Caufield - Dach - Roy
Newhook - Beck - Mesar
Heineman - Xkekaj - Tuch
Kappanen


Slaf, suzuki, Dach, caufield and Demidov are locks. That leaves only one spot on the top 6. If we grab a top 6 player this year, guys like Roy, Newhook and even Hage further down the line will likely never see top 6. Not that that's a bad thing - but doing so before even giving these kids a chance is very short sighted.

Id like to see what Roy and Newhook can do this year with top 6 time while it is available. They will both continue to develop and surely be better than last year. Then next year we re-evaluate
 

Weltschmerz

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Apr 22, 2007
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4-5-6 forwards (pts) *total for season

Avs
Nichuskin (53) Ross (40) Lekhonen (34)

Panthers
Verhaghe (70) Bennett (40) Rodrigues (39)

Oilers
RNH (67) Kane (40) Foegel (41)

Canes
Svechnikov (52) Necas (53) Noesen (38)

Habs
Monahan (35) Newhook (34) Gally (31)

From a pts pov, I'm not sure it's fair to argue definitively that our 2nd line is "bad" as of today. Unproven? Sure. But if healthy, what do you think a reasonable pts expectation is for Dach & Newhook?

With no improvement, just plateau + health based on previous season pace (2yrs for Dach)

Newhook = 51pts
Dach = 54pts

If healthy & they improve at all, we're talking 60pt+ contributions...

If that's our 2nd line, plus any of Gally/Roy/Anderson/Armia in the 30-35 range, that's a 2nd line output on par with some of the best offensive teams in the league last year...

Availability is a "skill", to be sure, but on paper the 2nd line talent in house is far from "bad".
When you look at Dach, his most common linemates were Suzuki and Caufield, to use those numbers to predict his production with Newhook and Roy may be misleading.
 

Miller Time

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When you look at Dach, his most common linemates were Suzuki and Caufield, to use those numbers to predict his production with Newhook and Roy may be misleading.

Perhaps... Though it was also from 2 seasons ago. While the injury was a set back, it's a fairly safe bet that he's been training quite diligently and will be a considerably stronger man, at 23-24 than he was at 21-22.

Newhook this year may well be producing in the 50-60pt pace range CC & Nick were at two years ago, as well.

Remains to be seen, but there appears to be a heavy dose of pessimism floating around this thread. Understandable given how little offensive talent we've had in decades past.

Future is bright 😎
 

Kudo Shinichi

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Apr 20, 2012
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I think the starting D will be something like:

Matheson-Guhle
Struble-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Harris

It's not great but it's not horrible. Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, an Engstrom should only see NHL time when there are injuries, I hope they simmer and dominate in the AHL all year or at least until the deadline.

I think the goalies can perform at an NHL average level.

If in camp Hutson looks anything like he did in his first 2 nhl games, he's definitely making the team
 

BLONG7

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I disagree totally with people thinking Roy won’t make the team from training camp. He 100% will unless he injures himself.

Habs can’t afford to put offensive talent on the sidelines.

He is a lock for the top 6 imo.
Agree he will make the club, but no way is he a top6 player at this point, unless we are beat up by injuries again.....3-4th lines is where he should slot in....
I am very interested to watch him and hope he can improve. I did not like what I saw at times last year from him, not all the time, but at certain times.....
 
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Benstheman

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Agree he will make the club, but no way is he a top6 player at this point, unless we are beat up by injuries again.....3-4th lines is where he should slot in....
I am very interested to watch him and hope he can improve. I did not like what I saw at times last year from him, not all the time, but at certain times.....
I agree he should play on the 3rd line but who will play on the top 6 in addition to Slaf, Suzuki, Caufield and Dach?

Newhook?? Yeah, probably. Unless they still want to see him play at center which in that case, he would play center on the 3rd line. But who else? Anderson? Gallagher?
 
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SOLR

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I think the starting D will be something like:

Matheson-Guhle
Struble-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Harris

It's not great but it's not horrible. Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, an Engstrom should only see NHL time when there are injuries, I hope they simmer and dominate in the AHL all year or at least until the deadline.

I think the goalies can perform at an NHL average level.

Hutson is on the 2nd pairing solid already, stop it with Hutson in the AHL, he will never play a game there unless he returns from an injury. They need to play him to see if they have to sign Matheson or not, it's a lot more critical a decision that anything else in the Habs rebuild.
 
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Benstheman

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I think the starting D will be something like:

Matheson-Guhle
Struble-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Harris

It's not great but it's not horrible. Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux, an Engstrom should only see NHL time when there are injuries, I hope they simmer and dominate in the AHL all year or at least until the deadline.

I think the goalies can perform at an NHL average level.
It is horrible man sorry.

Matheson is not a top pair D.
Guhle is playing on is off-side.
Struble is far from being a 2nd pair D.
Savard and Xhekaj are on their good spot although Savard might hit a wall this season considering his age.
Barron is a tweener at the moment.

Hutson is on the 2nd pairing solid already, stop it with Hutson in the AHL, he will never play a game there unless he returns from an injury. They need to play him to see if they have to sign Matheson or not, it's a lot more critical a decision that anything else in the Habs rebuild.
Exactly and i can't wait to see how they will manage PP1 time between the two.
 

Benstheman

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Nov 20, 2014
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Matheson and Calgary/Florida's 2025 1st for Rasmus Andersson.

Then Calgary can keep Matheson or trade him next season for another 1st round.

Habs D lineup for 2024-2025:

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Struble-Harris

Reinbacher comes in for Savard after TDL or next season.

Mailloux replaces Barron if he's shiting the bed again or when he is traded during the season.
 
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Tyson

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Mar 1, 2007
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Matheson and Calgary/Florida's 2025 1st for Rasmus Andersson.

Then Calgary can keep Matheson or trade him next season for another 1st round.

Habs D lineup for 2024-2025:

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Struble-Harris

Reinbacher comes in for Savard after TDL or next season.

Mailloux replaces Barron if he's shiting the bed again or when he is traded during the season.
How is Andersson an upgrade?
 
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Gustave

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Matheson and Calgary/Florida's 2025 1st for Rasmus Andersson.

Then Calgary can keep Matheson or trade him next season for another 1st round.

Habs D lineup for 2024-2025:

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Struble-Harris

Reinbacher comes in for Savard after TDL or next season.

Mailloux replaces Barron if he's shiting the bed again or when he is traded during the season.
This has the merit of stabilizing the right side of our D with experience going forward. I like it.

How is Andersson an upgrade?
He forces you to play Guhle on the left side, and gives you years of experience on our very green right side.
 

Tyson

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This has the merit of stabilizing the right side of our D with experience going forward. I like it.


He forces you to play Guhle on the left side, and gives you years of experience on our very green right side.
Adding a first round pick would be a massive overpayment for a Dman who isn't as good as Matheson.
 

Lafleurs Guy

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Jul 20, 2007
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Matheson and Calgary/Florida's 2025 1st for Rasmus Andersson.

Then Calgary can keep Matheson or trade him next season for another 1st round.

Habs D lineup for 2024-2025:

Guhle-Andersson
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Barron
Struble-Harris

Reinbacher comes in for Savard after TDL or next season.

Mailloux replaces Barron if he's shiting the bed again or when he is traded during the season.
Not a fan of trading back the draft pick in that deal. Matheson put up significantly better numbers last year. It's an interesting idea but what happens with somebody like Mailloux or RB? Barron winds up moving down or out as well.

It definitely helps us in the short term and gives us some veteran stability. I guess we could then move Savard at the end of the year to open up more space...
 

Lafleurs Guy

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It is horrible man sorry.

Matheson is not a top pair D.
Guhle is playing on is off-side.
Struble is far from being a 2nd pair D.
Savard and Xhekaj are on their good spot although Savard might hit a wall this season considering his age.
Barron is a tweener at the moment.


Exactly and i can't wait to see how they will manage PP1 time between the two.
I also missed that he didn't have Hutson in there. I'm pretty sure he's in on opening night. I'd have preferred some seasoning at the AHL level but in his little try out he showed that he's ready to go as is.

I just hope he's eating a LOT in the offseason and building some muscle. He's going to need it.
 

Gustave

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Adding a first round pick would be a massive overpayment for a Dman who isn't as good as Matheson.
I get it, but competent RHD come at a massive premium. And points wise, not a whole lot of difference between Matheson and Andersson.

I’d do it.
 
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