HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #88: 2024 Off-Season Thread

[DAChampion]

Luck is not a strategy. Injuries are not something any team can control.

This has already been explained to you, but I'll explain it to you again.

The league wide average for injuries is approximately 10%. So you should look at a roster and estimate how it's impacted as 10% of man-games in each tier of the roster are lost. For example assume that 50 man-games are lost from the nominal top six.

Ypur strategy -- to assume that injuries never happen -- assumes tremendous luck.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

This has already been explained to you, but I'll explain it to you again.

The league wide average for injuries is approximately 10%. So you should look at a roster and estimate how it's impacted as 10% of man-games in each tier of the roster are lost. For example assume that 50 man-games are lost from the nominal top six.

Your strategy -- to assume that injuries never happen -- assumes tremendous luck.

???

Please show me where I assumed we’d get no injuries?

We lost 80 games from Dach alone. There’s a big difference between having injuries and having the catastrophic ones we’ve had recently.

 

[Lshap]

We don't particularly have a good depth or at least reliable depth. Armia/Anderson/Gallagher could be good but they're way too inconsistent to rely on them. The team as constructed needs help. It needs goals. If that's a vet, so be it. I'd rather that than get boned the instant we have an injury or two.

Dach is coming back from a lost season and we need him to take a significant step and stay healthy. Obtaining a veteran top-6 scorer would be of great help to help him progress IMO.

As it stands, they're clearly tanking this season too. No top6 depth, no bottom6 depth.

Armia, Dvorak, Evans, Anderson, and Gallagher are perennials on the trade block. Some might be moved by the TDL. But there are no depth players in the AHL who are remotely interesting in terms of readiness or upside. So if they do sell some of those players off they'll do it knowing they have to call up non-NHL quality players to replace them (or take on waiver-calibre players from around the league). That doesn't seem to me like they have a vision for making/playing in the playoffs.

Bottom5 once again is very much conceivable. Not the end of the world but it makes me wonder if the stench and culture of losing will be easy to dispel.

Mrb1p refers to players like Perry and Kovalchuk who bring an element of permanent class and professionalism. Elder statesmen or very serious and established veterans with good reputations. Stuff to ward away Losing Culture problems. That sort of veteran help. It can't be substituted for "focused coaching".

I'm a big advocate of mentoring and culture, but it's not like the current team has no veterans or leaders. And based on the team-friendly contracts, there appears to be a nice culture brewing within this core.

If the main concern is that for all its potential, Montreal becomes another Buffalo or Ottawa, I wouldn't be too worried. Those teams really are the exception (not to mention both of their current cores still have potential). Montreal's path looks much closer to current teams that went through a period where they were crap, like the Rangers, NJ, Dallas, Carolina. They let their young cores develop and are now playoff teams and 2nd tier contenders. Of course we want to be among the top contenders. For that, we need luck – our prospects need to reach their ceiling, Hughes needs to make another aggressive trade, a top UFA need to sign here. We get lucky on two of those three things and we're good.

 

[Sorinth]

Thats cope if I ever read cope before.

Hughes got a lot of flak for having the NHL coaching team made up of all ex-NHLers without a lot of pro-coaching experience. And I'm pretty sure when hiring either MSL or Hughes talked about the importance of having recent NHL experience was to a young developing roster. It's not unreasonable to think that MSL and the other ex-NHLers are providing an influence similar to what a good veteran would also bring.

And it's not like we don't have any good vets either, Savard is easily a guy who should be considered a good vet. Having those former NHLers is going to lessen the burden on the veteran leadership, and it also means that young guys like Caufield and Suzuki have more space to set the tone and culture in the lockeroom which given their personalities/leadership is preferable to many names you would provide as the "good" vets we should want.

 

[Rapala]

We were ranked 20-something in most relevant categories. There is nothing wrong with fans wanting to see improvements made to the roster. Don’t let tankophiles insist their predilection for young, inexperienced rosters convince you losing most of a season year after year after year after year is normal.

Building is an intrinsic part of rebuilding. Progress must be made.

The good news is, unlike tank obsessed fans, Hughes seems like a competitive guy who values winning.

I agree our staff is super competitive and will expect to see progress across the board.
This actually hurt us in year two of the two obvious tank years.
I think management was hoping to see us at or near .500 last year and expect we should be beyond that this upcoming season.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I'm a big advocate of mentoring and culture, but it's not like the current team has no veterans or leaders. And based on the team-friendly contracts, there appears to be a nice culture brewing within this core.

If the main concern is that for all its potential, Montreal becomes another Buffalo or Ottawa, I wouldn't be too worried. Those teams really are the exception (not to mention both of their current cores still have potential). Montreal's path looks much closer to current teams that went through a period where they were crap, like the Rangers, NJ, Dallas, Carolina. They let their young cores develop and are now playoff teams and 2nd tier contenders. Of course we want to be among the top contenders. For that, we need luck – our prospects need to reach their ceiling, Hughes needs to make another aggressive trade, a top UFA need to sign here. We get lucky on two of those three things and we're good.

Agreed except the Rangers don't belong in that group. They rushed then rebuild and didn't develop prospects which is why Lafreniere has taken so long to hit his stride and Kakko still hasn't.

 

[Rapala]

Actually ya. If their role is focused on more limited 3rd 4th line duties instead of trying to be the guy on the 1st and 2nd line, I think they’ll actually excel.

I see a problem cropping up if everyone remains healthy.
I'm not the only one who sees very possible down turns in a number of our bottom player's stats.
All of Evans Gallagher Armia and Anderson were listed as players who may not relish their lesser roles.
Put it this way we saw Evans when he was relegated to a true 4C a couple of seasons ago.
He was not a happy camper and he sucked until injuries got him bumped in mid December.

 

[The Great Weal]

Praying for a healthy year because the team has no depth and it's too much to admit that it's a mistake from Hughes. Sat on his hands just like Bergevin sat on his hands in 2013.

Hughes has committed to a direction with a bad team while Bergevin did nothing with a top 5 goalscorer, best goalie, and top defense pair in the league. Don't understand how this is even remotely comparable to you.

If Dach goes down, Evans is the 2nd line C.

It will be Newhook.

If Caufield goes down, Barré-Boulet becomes the 2nd line LW.

Barre Boulet will be in Laval, what makes you think he'd beat out Roy/Newhook or even guys like Armia/Gallagher/Anderson who are significantly better even if they suck?

If Slaf goes down, Gallagher becomes the 1st line RW.

No he won't. Gallagher was barely playing on a team that was decimated by injuries, he's not going to catapult to the top line.

I am dumbfounded to the idea that anyone would be fine with this. It's incredibly bad and people are even passing this up as "average".

Rebuilds don't end overnight and none of the players drafted in the past 3 years besides Slaf are guaranteed to start the year. You might as well say "If Suzuki/CC/Slaf/Dach/Roy/Newhook/Guhle/Savard/Montembeault all get injured, we will have to play worse players in that position".

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I see a problem cropping up if everyone remains healthy.
I'm not the only one who sees very possible down turns in a number of our bottom player's stats.
All of Evans Gallagher Armia and Anderson were listed as players who may not relish their lesser roles.
Put it this way we saw Evans when he was relegated to a true 4C a couple of seasons ago.
He was not a happy camper and he sucked until injuries got him bumped in mid December.

Evans better get used to it. He’s a 4th line center. And a decent one at that.

Beck is our third line center of the future.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I see a problem cropping up if everyone remains healthy.
I'm not the only one who sees very possible down turns in a number of our bottom player's stats.
All of Evans Gallagher Armia and Anderson were listed as players who may not relish their lesser roles.
Put it this way we saw Evans when he was relegated to a true 4C a couple of seasons ago.
He was not a happy camper and he sucked until injuries got him bumped in mid December.

If Evans isn't happy he can enjoy riding the buses in the AHL. Gallagher and Anderson can play where they are lined up or watch from the press box until they can be bought out. If Armia plays well he will hopefully be traded. If not he can find other employment next season.

 

[SwiftyHab]

I see a problem cropping up if everyone remains healthy.
I'm not the only one who sees very possible down turns in a number of our bottom player's stats.
All of Evans Gallagher Armia and Anderson were listed as players who may not relish their lesser roles.
Put it this way we saw Evans when he was relegated to a true 4C a couple of seasons ago.
He was not a happy camper and he sucked until injuries got him bumped in mid December.

Given how we’ve been leading the league in man games lost over the last 3 seasons at least, I’m comfortable saying that this likely won’t happen.

Also, Gally has already accepted that he’ll have to play a lesser role and is trying to redefine his game. Even wants to play on the Penalty kill. Armia had a positive attitude when sent down to laval. Anderson is a question mark but he has to turn things around this year

 

[CDN24]

In the bottom six theres no great players but we have a lot of terrible ones. I disagree, thats not an average bottom 6, it's a downright terrible one, might just be the worse in the league. Teams like Anaheim and San José have better bottom 6 than us. With the better than average top 6, it's a shame we didn't address that this year.

Actually there are lots of bottom 6s that are no better than whatever 6 out of Gallagher, Armia, Anderson, evans, Dvo,Pezz, Beck, Barrie Boulet. we put out there.

Vegas is down right ugly

Tampa

Avs

Our bottom 6 are overpaid but they are far from worst in the league. Overpaid means nothing until we need the cap space

 

[Paddy17]

It’s an overpaid one, not a terrible one.

It’s not being ‘thrown out.’

I expect us to progress. There’s a lot of upside in the top six and I think we will surprise people with our offense.

We’re unlike to be in the playoffs whether we add a top six player or not. The reality is that our D is going to be super green for a while.

Our young D is entering their 3rd season. At what time do we stop considering them green?
Honest question. I'd like to know your thoughts on this.

 

[Tyson]

Our young D is entering their 3rd season. At what time do we stop considering them green?
Honest question. I'd like to know your thoughts on this.

They all have under 150 NHL games of experience so yeah...in the grand scheme of things they are still green.
Harris 130 games
Guhle 114 games
Xhekaj 95 games
Barron 94 games
Struble 56 games

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Our young D is entering their 3rd season. At what time do we stop considering them green?
Honest question. I'd like to know your thoughts on this.

Hutson, Mailloux, RB will all be joining in the next two years. That’s pretty green.

Ghule is shaping up to be a solid young blueliner and then there’s Savard and Matheson. I think Matheson isn’t here long term. Barron is going to be evaluated this year, how he does will determine if we keep Savard or not.

I think we’re going to have a young blueline for the next few years. How well we do will depend on how quickly they can adjust. Guhle looks great so that’s one. Matheson I think will last until the deadline at least. Savard would be good to keep for depth and if Barron doesn’t pan out. If Hutson looks anywhere near as good as he did in his debut that would be huge.

We’re an up and coming team. If all goes well, we’re in the playoffs next year. Contenders a year or two after that. But nothing is certain obviously.

 

[Beer and Chips]

I'm done with tanking but I don't see an urgency to sign/trade for vets. We're entering our window to improve, however our window to contend is still three/four years away. Let our highly-ranked U25 core develop. Progress will happen and we'll win a few more games.

Yes, we'll need to add vets between now and then, but only those who fit the same timeline as Demidov, Reinbacher, Hutson, etc. If players in the right age and talent bracket aren't available this season, Hughes can wait until next year.

You don't want everyone on the same timeline, everyone ages out at the same time?

 

[salbutera]

Kris Letang to the Canadiens?​

According to NHL insider Mark Madden of 105.9 The X and TribLive, the Pittsburgh Penguins had discussions about trading veteran defenseman Kris Letang to the Montreal Canadiens. Letang, who is entering the third year of his $36.6 million contract, has been a cornerstone of the Penguins’ defense.

However, after the Penguins missed the playoffs last season and potentially on the outside of the playoff picture and looking in, Letang reportedly expressed interest in joining the Canadiens, his hometown team. Madden revealed that there were talks between the Penguins and Canadiens regarding a potential trade, but nothing materialized.

It’s not clear why the trade never went down but the Canadiens chose not to make significant moves this offseason, focusing instead on securing their young talent, including Kaiden Guhle, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Arber Xhekaj, with multi-year deals. Letang remains with Pittsburgh, but it will be intriguing to see if there is more talk of a trade to Montreal if the Penguins have a rough go of things in 2024-25.

NHL Rumors: Red Wings, Flames, Canadiens, Bruins - The Hockey Writers NHL Rumors Latest News, Analysis & More

NHL rumors: Red Wings three goalie situation, Kuzmenko trade talk, Canadiens and Letang, but plus James van Riemsdyk buzz.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

NHL Rumors: Red Wings, Flames, Canadiens, Bruins - The Hockey Writers NHL Rumors Latest News, Analysis & More

NHL rumors: Red Wings three goalie situation, Kuzmenko trade talk, Canadiens and Letang, but plus James van Riemsdyk buzz.

thehockeywriters.com

He's slowing down and got what's likely to be a bad contract, so that's why.

 

[salbutera]

He's slowing down and got what's likely to be a bad contract, so that's why.

Joins long line of hometown boys who, “want to come home to play” when the end is near..

 

[morhilane]

NHL Rumors: Red Wings, Flames, Canadiens, Bruins - The Hockey Writers NHL Rumors Latest News, Analysis & More

NHL rumors: Red Wings three goalie situation, Kuzmenko trade talk, Canadiens and Letang, but plus James van Riemsdyk buzz.

thehockeywriters.com

Hughes probably proposed to do a player swap with Gallagher.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Joins long line of hometown boys who, “want to come home to play” when the end is near..

Great. Retain 50% and add a 1st round pick and Hughes will consider it.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Joins long line of hometown boys who, “want to come home to play” when the end is near..

100%.

Really f***ing sucks. I'm not even quebecois, or even from Quebec but I'd like to see a French player thrive there. Even a decent one. Somewhat Monty is, maybe Roy will.

 

[Habs10Habs]

NHL Rumors: Red Wings, Flames, Canadiens, Bruins - The Hockey Writers NHL Rumors Latest News, Analysis & More

NHL rumors: Red Wings three goalie situation, Kuzmenko trade talk, Canadiens and Letang, but plus James van Riemsdyk buzz.

thehockeywriters.com

Letang me, Letang me, gonna get a rope and hang meeeee!

Sorry, that's what plays in my head when I see/hear his name.

Always been a big Letang fan. For that reason, I'd like to add him. Realistically though, I don't think he's what we need.

 

[salbutera]

Well Letang is another former Hughes client, who the GM seems to target regularly

 

[Deus ex machina]

Joins long line of hometown boys who, “want to come home to play” when the end is near..

That usually happens when a player is looking for a last contract and nobody is offering one. Letang has still 4 years left on his. He's gonna get paid no matter what.
I think that has more to do with the fact that Pittsburgh is going nowhere. Much more promise with the Habs.
Letang maybe sees himself as one of the missing pieces for the Habs to take the next step. He was also a long time client of Hugues.

Madden is saying that the two teams had talks, so if he's right, the Habs could have some interest as well.